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Futures charts; June 10th
Same old, same old.
Indexes
Energy
Metals
Agriculture
Bonds
Currencies
I hope you will enjoy in the following compositions.
And as per usual, we finish with a couple of words from our in-house poet Charles Bukowski.
Born like this
Into this
As the chalk faces smile
As Mrs. Death laughs
As the elevators break
As political landscapes dissolve
As the supermarket bagboy holds a college degree
As the oily fish spit out their oily prey
As the sun is maskedWe are
Born like this
Into this
Into these carefully mad wars
Into the sight of broken factory windows of emptiness
Into bars where people no longer speak to each other
Into fistfights that end as shootings and knifingsBorn into this
Into hospitals which are so expensive that it’s cheaper to die
Into lawyers who charge so much it’s cheaper to plead guilty
Into a country where the jails are full and the mad houses closed
Into a place where the masses elevate fools into rich heroesBorn into this
Walking and living through this
Dying because of this
Muted because of this
Castrated
Debauched
Disinherited
Because of this
Fooled by this
Used by this
Pissed on by this
Made crazy and sick by this
Made violent
Made inhuman
By thisThe heart is blackened
The fingers reach for the throat
The gun
The knife
The bomb
The fingers reach toward an unresponsive god
The fingers reach for the bottle
The pill
The powder
We are born into this sorrowful deadliness
We are born into a government 60 years in debt
That soon will be unable to even pay the interest on that debt
And the banks will burn
Money will be use less
There will be open and unpunished murder in the streets
It will be guns and rov ing mobs
Land will be use less
Food will become a diminishing return
Nuclear power will be taken over by the many
Explosions will con tin u ally shake the earth
Radi ated robot men will stalk each other
The rich and the chosen will watch from space plat forms
Dante’s Inferno will be made to look like a children’s play ground
The sun will not be seen and it will always be night
Trees will die
All vegetation will die
Radiated men will eat the flesh of radiated men
The sea will be poisoned
The lakes and rivers will van ish
Rain will be the new gold
The rot ting bodies of men and animals will stink in the dark wind
The last few sur vivors will be over taken by new and hideous dis eases
And the space plat forms will be destroyed by attrition
The peter ing out of sup plies
The natural effect of general decay
And there will be the most beautiful silence never heardBorn out of that.
The sun still hidden there
Awaiting the next chapter.
With that I wish you good night and successful trading day tomorrow.
»
- advertisements -
testing
rage against the dying of the light.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maISWZ8Tpsc&NR=1
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9F-vk78I78&feature=related
Dylan Thomas - Do Not Go Gentle.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3ueIweuUvo&feature=related
.
spine shivers.....
just listen
Armstong is getting out March 16, 2011. pi?
........
You send your soldiers to certain slaughter
in the desert of some curly Persian daughter
She rolls over, now all you've got
is what your lying on
a damp spot.
gone
6th rule
"1913 America between two worlds"
alan valentine, 1962.
ch. XV
The man in the middle
.
" For over a century the ordinary citizen had been called the common
man. As the twentieth century opened, that phrase was no longer
acceptable in America. It no longer seemed democratic. The common man
became the average man, and the change was significant.
Eighteenth century liberal thinkers had exalted the common man as
society's most promising unit of character and virtue. The nineteenth century
accepted that tradition; but as its decades wore on, the common man lost his
special halo and found the chances for his personal advancement less infinite
than the theory had promised. The phrase acquired an overtone of patronage
and an undertone of class distinction. The common man was becoming too
much the proletarian to suit him.
To call most men common was to imply that some were uncommon-
superior because of birth, education, ability, or wealth. Early democratic
society had recognized superiority in men like Washington, and had accepted
Jefferson's principle that democratic society needed an aristocracy of talents
and virtues. The Founding Fathers had said all men were created equal, but
they did not mean it literally. They meant that talent and virtue could be
found and recognized among ordinary men as well as among the better born,
so the occasional common man would become an uncommon one.
Democracy had not yet become confused with egalitarianism; even
Andrew Jackson, who professed to represent the common man, did not
regard himself as one.
The theory that democracy would bring leadership by the ablest and
most unselfish had not worked out too well in practice. Before 1840
some Americans were thinking that too much power had fallen into the hands
of a few rich men-that democracy was becoming plutocracy. They began to
work toward popular democracy, and to insist that democracy meant equality
and that any man was, in matters of political judgment at least, as wise
as any other. The common man still accepted leaders, but he declined to
regard them as inherently any better than himself- or if they were they had
no right to be.
Another force was also changing the common man to the average man.
Standardization had become the accepted method of industrial production,
and the concept of standardization subtly crept into men's social thinking.
If the standard methods and products made manufacture more efficient,
then standard tastes and values should make democratic society more
efficient too. Those who reached this casual conclusion did not consider
that standardization was achieved at a sacrifice of superior quality.
The more Americans could be induced to want the same thing, the more
cheaply or profitably manufacturers could supply it, and they developed
ways to find out what the majority of the people wanted. They introduced
the "science" of market research, and market analysis meant statistics and
statistics meant averages. The man who fitted into the statistical majority,
the nation's greatest consumer, became the average American. The change
added to the amour propre of middle-class Americans, for it was nicer to be
average than to be common. But the common man had been esteemed for his
virtue and promise, while the average man was esteemed only as a
standardized purchasing unit. The common man, under a new name, was in
the saddle, but it was a very common saddle.
The next step of the manufacturer was to get the public to want what his
factory could most profitably make. Advertising and sales promotion suddenly
became major industries, and the power and uses of propaganda multiplied.
Average men were not only being induced to want the same thing, but to think
they wanted what the manufacturer had to sell them.
If the factory system and the new self - assertion by the lower classes had
not created the average man, the politicians would have done so. The new
democracy was by definition run by the average. Since popular sovereignty
meant the rule of the norm, the politicians who acted for the people must
first find out what the people wanted. By 1913 the politicians, as well as
the press and the advertising men, were engaged in an all out effort to
make the average tastes the national ideal. Having established the average
man on the throne, the next step was to influence him, by catering to him
they could rule him, politically as well as economically.
The change went to the roots of American political and social philosophy,
and helped turn the older individualist affirmation into myth. A people
whose traditions were nonconformist began to embrace conformity by welcoming
the impersonal anonymity of the average. A society erected on the leadership of
the exceptional was deferring to the ordinary. In its effort to maintain a classless
society, American democracy was creating a new and faceless ruling class in
culture as well as politics-the statistical majority.
The forces that brought about this change were not pursuing a political
or social idea but their private ends. The politician praised the average man
in order to win his vote; the advertising man in order to sell him goods; the
manufacturer in order to simplify his production line; the labor leader because
class solidarity was the source of his power; the sociologist because generalizations
and statistics were the breath of life. The procedure was not a new one, demagogues
had always sought the lowest common denominator and flattered the plebs to
gain power. But never before had such universal deference to the average so
characterized a national society, or led to such enthusiastic acceptance of statistical
collectivism and the cultural mean level."
...
..
cupcakes, you rock†
you roll !
check this. see what you can make of it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE75X3dJY4o&feature=youtube_gdata
dagger
It's not... that's the yellowish cap's intermittent visibility you are seeing. [in response to Gully]
coupons
cigarettes wetted with beer from
the night before
you light one
gag
open the door for air
and on your doorstep
is a dead sparrow
his head and breast
chewed away.
hanging from the doorknob
is an ad from the All American
Burger
consisting of several coupons
which
say
that the purchase
of a burger
from Feb. 12 thru Feb.15
you can get a free
regular size bag of french
fries and one
10 oz. cup of coca cola.
I take the ad
wrap the sparrow
carry him to the trash bin
and dump him
in.
look:
forsaking fries and coke
to help keep
my city
clean.
p. 121, "Love is a dog from hell" c.b.
and here a quicker one...
dog
a single dog
walking alone on a hot sidewalk of
summer
appears to have the power
of ten thousand gods.
why is this?
Does Andy D hang out at ZH anymore?
Sorry for posting this in a couple of topics but I would like someone to explain
Why is the BP spill burning?
http://www.ustream.tv/pbsnewshour
good question....
it appears we are witnessing the effluent from
the throat, or annulus, of hell. how could it
not be with flames and i guess we shouldn't
be surprised that we have a live feed.
hey tempo?
don't breed.
The Euro is moving....
Moving......
the sp too, same direction same time, who put them, and au/usd together?
Iran sanctions (or not) this week. China uprising? Hollywood Futures hearing moved to next week. Hillary stood up in Peru (LMFAO!). Geithner shot down in EZ ("But my name is Geithner? I'm German!"). Barry kickin' someones ass (yeah right). BP is a failed corporation (so is the US). Wall Street bought RIG (youz guys iz smart!). GS' stock was going up I thought? "How is gold doing this?" (BS, read a book). Summer is here, and so now kids will either flood the job market or die trying (or live with mom). The nba finals end soon; the US futbol team better make it past the first round or boredom will drive 'mercans crazy (maybe they will get off the damn couch!).
I have been saying that this will all be over by 6-18 months depending on which bubble we do next (tech, housing, currentsea), Hollywood or gold. Now, it is looking bad even on MSM. The term "double dip" is not quite incessant enough; back to back recessions? There is a word for that already. It is depression. Say it, it is actually quite liberating. Depression. Yes, scary, I know. But what if we didn't....what if you and I were hanging out face to face and all of a sudden I ran away, you turn around, and there is a huge bear in your face! What if instead I said to you first, "There is a bear behind you!" Well this is the same. Depression. What else? Peak oil. Correct, and as far as I can tell, we got an oil shock coming, and if we do, this could be the shock that ushers us into the backside of oil production. Then instead of no growth, which we currently have (isn't it obvious?), we will have minus nine percent growth a year.
You know whats cool about baseball cards and comic books? They are finite. They may be paper, but they are finite. FIAT is not. FIAT has spread like a disease through the system, and now the system is dead; the rot starts now. This is the final stage. Decomposition.
Dead bounce, rigor mortise, dust. Just like paper after a fire. Poof! Magik! Magik? Ha! Magik is an illusion, it is not real. Philosophers stone, they sit around drooling at prospects. Speculating and assuming. Expecting and waiting. What interestingly vile role models. They have their printing press, and we have are TVs....or do they? Do we? What are these things? Illusions, as they are not real. So what is real?
Depression. And it is something we can not imagine. I can say, 'gold will do this, look it is at this level now, and this is what will happen here' for only a little while. Once we get into the backside of oil production, once the currentseas go out, we can not imagine. No way to do it. We have never been here before. So where do we go?
Outside there are the most beautiful things. Forests and rivers, smiling babies and lively dogs. Life is beautiful and the essence of humanity is a blessing! But we must lift our spirits, and to do this we must lift our bodies. We must turn off, stand up, and get out. We must. And we must do it now.
your simply, a character†
does anyone else come back to your intimate moments of posts?
I never thought of that, Geithner, a "German" who speaks mandarin, he must be beyond his years omnipotent, right? lol I was watching msn Asia and they were parading clowns, "buy sketchers stock because they sell these really neat shoes"...Now I am watching pawn stars, way more interesting.
Lets see, is it 1932 yet?
liquidated toys
half $ in pms
house in the burbs and a mh in the sticks
guns, LOTS of lead, food bank, water, seeds, fuel, tools, rum etc.
a woman who can rough it (and amazingly put up with me)
no debt
hoping im overprepared, but doubt it, I just want one more summer of bliss
enjoy your evening everyone :-)
the good angel whispers
"flowers john, don't forget the flowers..."
I love your post
+1
The currentseas metaphor rocks
"You know whats cool about baseball cards and comic books? They are finite."
sounds like Fallout 3
for all those schizophrenic enough to enjoy classical and techno :
murcof
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBD8W4aeAD0&feature=related
p.s. glad to see the ladies runnin shit round here for a change...refreshing.
And I had done a hellish thing,
And it would work 'em woe:
For all averred, I had killed the bird
That made the breeze to blow.
Ah wretch! said they, the bird to slay,
That made the breeze to blow!
While everyone is very depressed about the GOM BP oil spill, in time, the USA will be very very glad to have billions of barrels of oil to explore and produce w/o going to war. Over 90% of domestic oil reserves are in the deep water GOM. How large are the reserves on the BP lease that is leaking??? 1 mm barrels, 10 mm?? Produced over the next 10 to 20 years at $150/bbl, thats a lot of money. BTW nearly all the oil will be captured by BP by next week. Thats good news. Sorry I am not that concerned about a few unendangered birds. Throw some straw on the oil near the shore and most of the problems will be solved. In perspective there have been many larger oil spills and the environment recovered just fine. If you are against exploring in the deep water GOM then stop using oil, gas, plastic in your own personal life, (including your damn computers, TVs, xbox Ipad, hospitals, fast food, A/C, golf, tennis etc.).
right on, b r o t h e r†
fuck you, i ride my bike with my clubs to the golf course.
got to find a way, to do my pleasures without burning gas that i have to purchase. everything else is their problem. i have purchased gasoline in the last four months, once.
$33.00. cheap, FU america, all you Fu*k heads americans, don't know expensive gasoline/petro-.
FU you americans.
gas is the cheapest form of fun.
the only thing faster than cubic inches is rectangular dollars
got a smoking audios A4, too†
"the only thing faster than cubic inches is rectangular dollars"
all-time classic line...pass the spliff will ya darlin?
Yeah hot damn! Dagger!
Burn 'em down Velo!
Ben Harper at Bonnaroo-Burn One Down:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyk2-ezzE4U
/
very very very
did i say v e r y
nice selection, tonight.
†
Cheeky, there was a great paper written just after the collapse of the tech bubble that notices the great similarity between the Nikkei collapse in the 80's and the S&P collapse after 2000. It is at the Econophysics Forum and is entitled, "The US 2000-2002 Market Descent: How Much Longer and Deeper?" by Didier Sornette and Wei-Xing Zhou. It is basically a quant paper with some stunning graphs modeling the descent mathematically, which are almost hypnotic to look at (at the end of the paper). I couldn't upload any graphs, but their conclusion echos with today. It was not true then and certainly not true with the bubble of 2007 that you cannot tell when you are in a bubble. This paper rigorously gives the lie to that assertion by Bernanke. Here is a taste of what they have to say:
"A big problem is that, in the collapse following them, policy interventions such as lowering
interest rates, reducing taxes, government spending packages and any measure to restore investors’confidence may be much less effective, as discovered with the Japanese so-called liquididy trap, a process in which government and the central bank policy becomes essentially useless. In addition, loss of confidence by investors (for instance following the frauds in accounting in the US) may lead to a non-negligible cost to the overall economy [4], providing a positive feedback reinforcing the bearish climate.
We have proposed that the trajectories of the US and Japanese stock markets could be understood in large part by taking into account imitative and herding mechanisms, both stemming possibly from rational or irrational behaviors. A key ingredient entering probably in the imitative and herding processes is the phenomenon of investor confidence. It has recently been argued [24] that investor confidence can be understood far better if one assumes not that investors have rational expectations, but that they have what economists call “adaptive expectations.” Individuals with rational expectations predict others’ behavior by focusing on their external incentives and constraints. In contrast, individuals with adaptive expectations predict others’ behavior (including possibly the behavior of such an abstract “other” as the stock market) by extrapolating from the past. In addition, confidence and trust in the market have been shown to be subjected to history effects [24]. We believe that these behavioral traits provide fundamental roots underlying the validity of our analysis which, ultimately, can be viewed similarly as nothing but a (rather complex nonlinear) extrapolation of the past.
Our theory does not describe the common “stationary” evolution of the stock market, but rather is specifically tailored for identifying “monsters” or anomalies (bubbles and their end) and for classifying their agonies. We claim that these agonies (the anti-bubbles) are mostly shaped by collective effects between economic and stock market agents, with their imitation and confidence (and lack thereof) idiosynchracies. Ultimately, our description must leave place to a recovery of the fundamental pricing principles (and of possible emergences of new speculative bubbles) but, before this, it describes the way by which collective effects control in large part the processes towards this recovery."
See http://xxx.lanl.gov/PS_cache/cond-mat/pdf/0209/0209065v1.pdf
Sornette is onto something, and prepared to put his reputation on the line.
This is a good intro, he writes well:
http://www.amazon.com/Why-Stock-Markets-Crash-Financial/dp/0691118507
And this is unusually courageous for an academic. Publicly identifying 4 bubbles in Nov09, (including gold) and watching them pop over 6 months.
http://www.physorg.com/news192212660.html
Thanks for the citations, Mephisto! I plan on buying Sornette's book on market crashes. I read all the reviews on Amazon. I had actually arrived at something similar to his logarithmic periodicity myself in cogitating on the market after trying to fit it with trigonometric curves. But his book sounds like a real treasure trove of insight.
By the way, I couldn't help noticing on Amazon that Sornette has co-authored another book called "Extreme Financial Risks" by Yannick Malvergne and Didier Sornette. I used the "look inside the book" feature of Amazon and found that much of the book is devoted to copulas. I was struggling to find a replacement for Modern Portfolio Theory myself and stumbled upon this idea of using copulas at the Matlab website on finance. There is a company in Boston that developed what they claim is a highly successful business of evaluating risk using this approach. Perhaps someone there had read Sornette's book!
Sometimes I get tired of all the time I spend on ZH, but this time it really paid off, thanks to your response to my post. I'm always amazed at the number of very bright people at ZH!
I'm not sure you'll get this reply, given that it has disappeared from page 1.
Sornette's other book is aimed at professional risk managers, for whom copulas are a standard tool - especially in credit derivatives. Unfortunately they are just a tool, and the old rule "garbage in - garbage out" applies here. The book is a good intro to more general measures of dependence, which modern finance doesnt use enough of IMO.
I find the more general book more interesting, its also got a great bibliography on these nonlinear market models. Its just a bit old now, a second edition with updates on the credit crunch would be great!
Cheeky, a toast to you.
Thank you Cheeky. My favorite piece is Rimsky-Korsakov Scherezade. What a woman! 1001 nights she enchanted the prince with her wits, her life depended on it. Unlike todays ideal woman, someone described as all big teeth, big hair and big boobs, who probably couldn't keep her story straight for a day.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhBEvPD8DR8
Thank you. Your choice of music made my evening.
Bukowski reads Bukowski, prophecy perhaps??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVR4CB78IOc
gone
Hi Mr. Bastard. I like your humor and choice of in-house poets. I met Bukowski on his last birthday at a book store in San Pedro, CA. He sat and ate a piece of birthday cake as a small group of us just stared at him in awe. Kind of a funny scene. He then signed books we all bought. He was in good spirits and nice to everyone. It was a good day for all.
Thanks for your postings here. Your work is appreciated.
I wait for this.
I wait for truth that eats through laminate,
I want to out-Charles, Charles.
I want to eat more lab created fat
feel it bubble'n burn my spinal fluid
watch it puff me up, sit me down in a chair, forever.
I want to write like that. ;)
Daaaaaaamn that's a depressing poem.
Even more sad: it's true.
I feel better now...I was really depressed until I read this.
love the poem. (goes very well with the music)
I think, but not sure, that gold gave BB the finger today (looking at the charts)
Reminds me - I was at some sort of weird Halloween party or museum event or something once (this was before you could hold a whole recording studio's worth of technology in the palm of your hand) and someone had rigged up two separate stereo (mono in this case) systems - one playing a very old, scratchy but elegant Chopin nocturne performance and the other an equally old and scratchy recording of T.S. Eliot himself reading The Wasteland.
Now that was an effective (and creepy) combination of music and poetry.
really gone