Futures Surge On Rumor Of Highly Impossible Hugo Chavez-Mediated Peace Plan

Tyler Durden's picture

The main story overnight, which has cut gains in precious metals and oil, and set futures surging is a bizarre rumor that Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez has proposed a Libyan peace plan which is being considered by the Arab League. "Oil prices were lower on Thursday as speculation a peace deal may be brokered for Libya prompted some investors to cash in gains, but the market remained elevated on concerns over ongoing unrest in the region. A report the Arab League was considering a peace plan for Libya proposed by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez led some players who had bet on rising prices to close their positions overnight." In terms of credibility and actual practicality, this story has about the same weight as the false rumor spread last week that Gaddafi was shot. But the desperate market will take any myth that sends it surging and run with it. "As for the proposed peace plan, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa told Reuters, "We have been informed of President Chavez's plan, but it is still under consideration." Analysts were sceptical the plan would lead to peace. "It is doubtful that the protesters in Libya will agree to enter negotiations with Gaddafi as the plan of Venezuelan President Chavez suggests," Commerzbank said in a note." So while a US aircraft carrier is happily swimming toward Libya (fact), stocks once again bury their head in the sand on the smallest amount of misinformation with the hope that central planning has once again regained control.

Reuters breaks down the second round of the "Chavez is shot" rumor:

The Arab League head Amr Moussa said on the Thursday the group would consider a proposal by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to negotiate a peace settlement for Libya's intensifying conflict.

Energy analysts consulted by Reuters said they saw little chance that any Chavez-backed plan would succeed.

 "I don't think that another relatively extreme leader who is an ally to Gaddafi has a chance to be accepted as a peace-broker. It's very unlikely to work."

"It has become likely that Libyan fighting will affect, and potentially destroy, oil infrastructure serving the country's largest, central basin, which is right on the fault line between Gaddafi loyalists and rebels."

"The violence and bomb strikes could hit export terminals, and might extend to upstream infrastructure and pipelines. I think that the risk of Libyan oil exports remaining affected for a long period are already being priced into oil."

OLIVIER JAKOB, Swiss-based research firm Petromatrix:

"Prices have weakened on the news, or the rumor, that Gaddafi could accept a proposal made by Chavez for mediation. Chavez' credibility does not fly very high; the only value of such a proposal is if it offers some honorable way out for the Gaddafi clan. The only value is if it offers a face-saving way out to exile."

CHRISTOPHE BARRET, analyst, Credit Agricole CIB, London:

"Whatever comes of it, the plan looks very vague and I don't think it will be seriously considered. An earlier press report indicated the Arab League 'accepted' the plan, but we now see that isn't the case."

"The possibility of very lengthy conflict in Libya has increased. What is most worrisome today is how close to the country's oil installations the violence has come. Exports from Libya could be wiped out."

CARSTEN FRITSCH, Analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt:

"There is probably no chance that rebels would be willing to sit down at a negotiating table with Gaddafi now. It's highly unlikely a Chavez peace proposal could work."

"Government forces are attacking the oil city of Brega, and this city is at the center of the conflict. According to state oil company NOC, Libya's oil infrastructure hasn't been damaged yet. But the risk of damage is increasing, and that could make it harder for Libya to resume oil supplies any time soon."

TIM RIDDELL, head of technical analysis at ANZ in Singapore:

"If it's coming out of Chavez, it might not have a great degree of substance. I don't think it has a lot of credence, but it just looks like it's causing some unwinding of the most recent speculative positions. The market was long oil and long gold."

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eigenvalue's picture

Chavez himself is a clown and dictator, who may be toppled soon by his own fellow countrymen.

Twindrives's picture

Hugo Chavez is going to have to rein in the illustrious Nobel Peace prize winning Barack Obama's naked aggression.

All the world is a stage....... and it's leaders' full of hypocrisy.  

Go ahead Hugo, tell Lyin' POS Barry how the cow eats the cabbage. 

 

 

Cdad's picture

And the credibility of these markets, resting on the backs of the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street, falls face down at the corner of Wall and Broad...again.

It is becoming quite clear to me that when these markets head down again, it will be for good.  No one actually alive and thinking now could ever have faith in again in this pachinko market.  Today's fraud rumor/excuse/reason to move the ES has to be the worse one I have ever heard of.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Agreed.  Even my family is catching on, and all they do is regurgitate the nightly news..  One of them just converted a sizable 401k to cash.  Unfortunately, my recommendations regarding precious metals have fallen on deaf ears.  That's just an "end of the world" play, apparently.

e_u_r_o's picture

so zerohedge would rather have lower stock prices than lower oil prices?

eigenvalue's picture

I want lower oil prices but the law of supply and demand can never be fought against

Cdad's picture

Seriously, if we applied the laws of supply and demand to oil, the price per barrel would be cut in half.  So I'm not really sure what you are asking for here.  The law of supply and demand per oil has been suspended.

eigenvalue's picture

I think the fundamentals of crude oil are rather stong. Peak oil is not a hypothesis.

Cdad's picture

I wasn't talking about what you think.  I was referring to the slack in demand for oil and the massive supply on hand.  Supply/demand are economic laws.  Peak Oil is an idea planted by environmentalists, criminal syndicate Wall Street options junkies, and oil companies.

 

eigenvalue's picture

Don't worry about the demand. Just go and visit China. You will see a gigantic demand for oil. China is a bubble but its demand for oil is real.

Cdad's picture

The US is the world's largest consumer of oil.  Our consumption is falling along with our economy.  That China is picking up some slack does not prove your point.  In the meantime, current oil discoveries in the US and Canada are MASSIVE. 

If you want to be gullible on this whole Peak Oil notion, be my guest.  Oil will fall right along with the market...on the day that the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street finally accepts that their plan to re inflate the equity bubble with banana republic Bernanke dollars has failed.

eigenvalue's picture

Well, I think you are a follower of Engdahl, who thinks peak oil is a myth. But I have some reservations.

razorthin's picture

What is it about the concept of finite supply that you can't wrap your head around?  We can't fiat oil to my knowledge.

Cdad's picture

All resources are finite.  However, your thinking is too simplistic.  As an example, what about efficiency?  How about disruptive technologies?  These things extend the lifespan of finite commodities for X years. 

How about economic depressions and resulting lowered consumption?  How about the Bachan?   

Of course, in the meantime, Wall Street constantly front runs broad and stupid concepts like this as a way of justifying their options habits.

Was it not the case that just two years ago...the same theory was posited, oil went to $147...and then collapsed to $35?  The very same thing is about to happen again...but by all means, scream Peak Oil from the top of your lungs all you like.

Flakmeister's picture

 You are going to lecture us about the fundamentals of oil and you can't even spell Bakken? The Bakken is wonderful field, its been known about for years and they finally figured out how to get oil out of it.  In a few more years they may ramp it up to 2/3 of the flow that once came out of Prudhoe Bay.

Here is a chart of US oil production, read it and weep.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005.png

In here is a chart of global discoveries and production (2002)

http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

 

Cdad's picture

Oh please.  Forgive the misspelling.

So...you saying to me that +$100 oil is fundamental?  You mean to say that it is not geopolitical?  Who are you kidding with this?   

But it doe not matter about our disagreement.  In the next couple weeks...if not hours...the market will explain it to you.

For everything on the Earth, there is a price.  And for every price, there is one that is too high.

Flakmeister's picture

  The way money is being printed, it is hard to estimate what the price of oil should be. The world market is very tight, oil price demand inelasticity is about 0.07, this implies 1% shortfall is about a 14% increase.

However, the value of oil is easy to figure out. If you pay people $0.25 a hour for hand labor, the equivalent power extracted from oil equates to $580 per barrel. Oil is cheap compared to what it does...

   As for the price swings post Lehman, what happened to oil  was no different than what happened to Au, Ag, Pt and Pd. Grossly oversold and I BTFD.

And you still haven't told us about the MASSIVE finds and addressed the US production curve I posted....

tmosley's picture

Or you could pay an animal nothing!  That makes oil FREEEEEE!!!!

In other words, that is a stupid analogy.

Flakmeister's picture

  You accuse me of stupid analogies and you come up with that?

  You have to buy the animal and feed the animal...

But yes, it is a limited example, but it served the purpose to estimate the value of oil...

 

tmosley's picture

Don't you know?  Peak oil caused this whole crisis.  I mean sure, oil prices have lagged far behind all the other commodities, but because the guys at the oil drum said it, it must be true, because they were right in 2008, right?  Clearly our somewhat higher oil prices have caused everything else to explode in price.  This is NOT a monetary crisis.  Ben Bernanke did not cause it, in fact, he is a hero, and should be revered as such, and be given our total devotion.  Government intervention is the only means by which we can preserve our current oil supply.  Production has peaked and is declining sharply, just as we predicted (wait, it hasn't?  it has only plateaued?  Look, don't argue 5th grade geography, if I say a square is a circle, then its a circle, so shut up!).

Also, in my house, I monitor the water pressure by how many cups of water I can fill per minute.  I don't have ANY water pressure!  Sure, the faucets are off, but that doesn't have anything to do with it.  Water is being extracted at the fastest rate possible down at the waterworks.

Flakmeister's picture

  I've taken you to school on this before...

Net Energy of liquids produced has not budged in 5 years...

Net Exports of oil peaked in 2005...

Chew on this:

http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2011/02/egypt-a-classic-case-of-rapid-net-export-decline-and-a-look-at-global-net-exports/

Might give you a little more insight into what helped tip Egypt over.

And yeah, don't even try to paint me as a defender of the Bernank...

Flakmeister's picture

  Just what are these MASSIVE finds?

Matt's picture

@Cdad just to be sure I understand you; right now the world produces around ~80 million barrels per day. So you state Peak Oil is not real. Does this mean you believe that oil production will increase to 160 million bpd by 2020, 320 mbpd by 2030, 640 mbpd 2040, and over 40 BILLION barrels per day by the year 2100?

Milton Waddams's picture

If the oil producing regions are not made flush with cash who pray tell is going to buy the Treasuries?

razorthin's picture

Reality, bichez.  S&P at $100 and Oil at $300 would reflect reality.

ReallySparky's picture

Watch out Obama, Chavez is gonna take away your peace prize.

sangell's picture

The rebels have said the want to review and or renegotiate all the oil contracts so keeping Moammar in place would seem to be the preferred outcome if oil stability is the goal.

Meanwhile Telegraph's AEP reports some Bahrain Shia cleric has said his folks will ask for Iranian help if Saudi Arabia intervenes on behalf of the Sunni leaders. This is the biggie not Libya.

Orémus's picture

Why do you call Chavez a dictator ?

He has been elected and reelected more than once

And never stole no election

He is just defying american domination

eigenvalue's picture

If you rig the election, you can get elected as many times as you want.

PY-129-20's picture

And if you rig the markets, you can get as much fiat as you want. What a wonderful world! Soon, we all will be millionaires and Uncle Chavez will bring us our Christmas presents.

MarketTruth's picture

And if you rig elections AND the market like in America.... the world is yours and you may freely slaughter the sheeple at will.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Market, ain't that the truth. I think any American pointing fingers at any world leader should think about 42 times before openign their mouths. There is just no justification/comparison. At all.

In fact, if American people can start to feel what their sin of omission has allowed a runaway MIC to do to the world in their names, maybe somethign would change.

But except for a small minority (yes, small and minority), that is not how it looks. In fact, I was there for a long time and did not see it.

I fact, they just need to visit a reservation. Once. In a lifetime. Not to gamble either.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/01/on-outsourcing-and-its-ills/

pazmaker's picture

ORI, you should heed your own advise and worry about your corrupt leaders in India. Maybe you should think about that before opening your mouth.

alter ego's picture

Hey Oremus,

Fidel Castro also have elections every four

years and surprisingly he wins!

Before say something stupid about Chavez,

maybe you should take a walk in Venezuela and

see what the Chavez' revolution really means.

In addition also ask the Venezuelan people

 about dissidents in jail.

They have many people locked in filthy

dungeons just because they  have different

opinions of your lovely revolutionary 

president. 

Ahh by the way, if for any reason you have a

house or a farm that the guys in the

Venezuelan government really  like, they will

take it away from you without paying you any

money.

That is what I called an ideal democracy.

 

   

snowball777's picture

¿Cuál es su punto fijo, chico? Is it better to steal the oil revenues and 'buy' that farm instead?

Maybe you're into repression like El Caracazo instead?

Hugo may be an ass, but he stood up to the IMF thugs and has been a dissident in prison too.

alter ego's picture

 

Learn some Spanish!

Me no comprendo what you are saying.

 

Now, talking about the subject, in the last 10

years Venezuela have had more than 100Billion

dollars in oil related revenues.

During the same period that country have had

a yearly accumulative inflation of 20% average.

 

Have you been in Venezuela?

Venezuela is a tiny country with just 30 million

people and I don't think, based on those huge

incomes this country looks like

EAU or Norway, just to name other oil

exporter's countries.

 

Get your facts my friend.

 

If you are anti imperialist, go an buy

a Che Guevara's t-shirt. 

snowball777's picture

If you're a pro-imperialist, go take a nice long dirt nap.

alter ego's picture

 

No, I'm not pro-imperialist, however I'm not pro

Banana Republic's gorillas.

I fell so bad with guys like you that don't

have arguments and you just see the world

between Pro or Anti Imperialist.

 

You have been manipulated my friend.

Or maybe you are so in love with dictators.

 

Maybe you should ask yourself, who gets the

benefits for the destruction of the Venezuelan

oil industry?

 

What is going to happen if Venezuela's oil

productions continue to decline?

 

I tell you what, the "imperialist" are going to

come and buy back Venezuela's oil assets in

exchange of investment.

 

In addition, Chavez sale most of that Oil to

your imperialist friends.

 

So. Who does what and why?

Who is the sucker?

Maybe you should see yourself and ask these

 question in front of a mirror.

snowball777's picture

YOU are the one seeing the world sans shades of gray, not me ("If you're an anti-imperialist,...") so shove that lame idea back up your culo.

I see Hugo for what he is, good AND bad and don't pretend that he didn't come to power because things in Venezuela were fucked up enough to allow a strongman to step into the fray. I don't condone his repression of journalistic criticism or jailing of dissidents, but I don't pretend that the vacuum he'd leave behind if eliminated wouldn't be filled with an analog to Pinochet or the Somoza dynasty either.

If given a choice between incompetence and evil, choose the former.

Now step off my dick before you get hurt.

Orémus's picture

alter ego

do you know any other "dictator" that, when facing a military coup d'état (organised by the US, do you doubt it ?), has been reinstalled by his own people

he is just hated by your press because he doesnt agree with US firms making money with his countrys ressources

election rigged ? show me the proofs

Rick64's picture

Exactly, on top of this he is fighting the elite in his own country because they are the ones that benefit from the IMF programs, privitization of natural resources, and exploitation of the common man.

spanish inquisition's picture

In the USA you get a choice of the same wall street backed guy in a blue or red coat. The beauty of it is, no need to fix the election in post.

In regards to dissent, you are still able to be shouted down or labeled a crackpot. Just in case things get out of hand, there are a few prisions being build in Montana(?) by Blackwater/Xe and MRE's ordered.

Boilermaker's picture

Well, surely, that's good for 12 SPX handles.  Surely.

John McCloy's picture

Wall St and the government only know how to cheat at this point. This whole economy is one big cheat built on long spent debt. Now our media literally no longer runs on celebrities primarily but on reality stars. Most Americans certainly deserve it the rest simply do not have the proper information to know what position we truly are in and how simple it is to fix.

razorthin's picture

Just another bankster scheme to gap up markets over resistance and safely above support.  BTFD.

Long-John-Silver's picture

Hillary is going to Libya to install an American Puppet Dictator come Hell, high water, or Hugo.

LongSoupLine's picture

In related news, Bernanke and Geithner say thay have a plan to fix the economy.  They call it "Quantitative Easing".

 

Chavez approves.

chinaguy's picture

No, NO! AP says Futures are rising because of the great ADP jobs numbers yesterday - LMFAO

"World stocks regained their composure Thursday after upbeat U.S. employment figures buoyed shares on Wall Street, surmounting fears of a disruption in the global oil production"

zaknick's picture

Stupid cocksucker .....

There's more real democracy in Venezuela than there has ever been in the good ole USA. Dictator? He's been elected 3 times by landslides.

You doing Rockefuckers bidding too, u little Durden bitch? Thats whose oil interests you seem to be pushing.

Motherfucker, you have the CFR banksters running your world into the gutter and here u are pimping for him... stupid slave

whats the difference between Zero Hedge and the MSM?

Stupid bitch

alter ego's picture

I think the only cocksucker are yourself.

Your premise is wrong.

 Just because the US democracy is a fallacy,

doesn't convert the Venezuelan in an Ideal.

 

There is nothing more sad that an ignorant with

initiative.

 

By the way, you can buy a a Webster dictionary

and find a better synonyms for your words. I

mean if you really want to trasmit a

professional message.

 

Take Care