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On FX
How about those FX markets of late? They’ve been an easy call, right?
Actually I think there may be some blood in the streets. All the Euro
bears are bleeding profusely. Those who played dollar Yen from the short
side are having a miserable time. The short EURCHF trade has just gone
to hell. But by far, the worst of the lot are those poor souls who
thought that shorting the Yen crosses against the Europeans was such a
hot idea. For them, well, there isn’t much that can be said.
We have a series of head fakes going on at once. The Japan story is on top of the list. In the days after the quake EVERYONE said that it HAD to mean that MASSIVE REPATRIATION would happen and HUGE CAPITAL
would be returning to Japan. This thinking was well supported by the
1995 Kobe quake. Things got out of hand. The USDJPY dropped 5 big
figures in just a few days. The BoJ cried out for help from the other
CBs and we had a few hours of intervention and a bunch of headlines.
Utter bunk. There has been no repatriation of any
significance at this point. The spike in the Yen was short covering
(carry trade players). The CB’s paid them off. At about the same time
the market was getting its faced ripped off by the CBs it was becoming
increasing clear that what is happening in Japan has little to compare
with 1995. At this point the only ones still crying, “This is no problem. It will be over in a day or two” are fools. There aren’t many fools trading FX. We now have a weak Yen story to trade. This trade is not over yet.
Think what would have happened to the Euro a year ago if Portugal had
gone belly up. The street would have shot the currency for several big
figures. A year later what happens when we get the news? The Euro closes
at the high of the day. Go figure market sentiment.
The Portugal story is old news by now. The headline is just a
confirmation of what we already know. The Euro has been trading higher
against everything for some time. This runs counter to last year's
logic. So why the price action? I think it might be a two-part answer.
If you look at CDS pricing there is not really much evidence that Spain
is going to be the next axe to fall anytime soon. That perception may be
a mistake, so watch that CDS pricing as a clue to where EURUSD is
headed. As of today there is no panic in Spain. As long as that
perception is held, the Euro will trade on the strong side.
The weak dollar conclusion is based on my perception that outside
of the US there is increasing distrust of the dollar. Nearly every day
there is another story in the papers that supports that view. America is
financially out of control. Add in ZIRP as a policy that pays dollar
holders nothing and it is easy to get bearish on the buck in general. Given that the Yen is not a place to go when shorting the US the Euro has to be the beneficiary.
On the CHF crosses, a simple rule. If the EURO has a bid, don’t short the CHF crosses. Play in a different sandbox.
Speaking of that CHFJPY cross, a reminder of an article of mine on 12/20/2010. “Trade against the SNB”.
I pointed back then to an unusual reserve diversification move by the
Swiss National Bank. Those fine fellows were getting pounded from the
drop in the Euro and the losses they were facing as a result. In a
desperate move they sold off some Euros and sought safety in the Yen (to
the tune of JPY 1 trillion). The CHFJPY cross was at 82.50 when this
bright move was made. The cross closed at over 93 today. The loss in the
past three months? A cool 13%. That comes to CHF1.25b ($1.5b). And I thought those Swiss guys were so good at currency trading.
A grouping of Losers
»
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Shorting euro is madness today when FED is printing money to finance the federal budget. The whole system is going to crash anyway. Too much debt, too much leverage and now we have also peak oil.
There you go punks:
*1.4500 and AUD/USD 1.0300, 1.0340 and 1.0400 (so-so large) strikes. Focus also on presumably large AUD/USD 1.0500 KOs.
My gut says we are F*****. somthing is brewing. Markets are just to BID
All the Euro strength of the last couple of weeks is dependent on whether ECB raises interest rates on Euro today and commits to raise them in the next few ECB meetings.
If the ECB does raise interest rates today they screw the weaker euro economies like Greece, Ireland, Iceland, Portugal etc. as their cost of borrowing goes up.
If they do not raise the interest rates then there will be substantial Euro weakness.
Keep in mind that the stronger countries in the Eurozone, the Germans and French want a weaker Euro which will boost their exports to the rest of the world.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
yen repatriation was i agree "bad idea." given what you say about the SNB it makes the media coverage more understandable. obviously the Japanese are going to have to work their way out of this absolutely terrible and terrifying tragedy. for anyone who works for a living that makes "it" even more enraging. in short "they need dollars"--and that includes unfortunately even the "Hong Kong Phooey bucks" as well. Even though as the Catholic Church tells us "not having hope is a sin"--reality confronts. We shall see with the Euro--which i understand why it's strengthening but if it's a matter of policy is just flabbergasting--as for the greenback itself, "never tell me the odds."
I hear ya...
You can't hedge with FX anymore, which used to be done with risk currencies; you just have huge investment bank longs sitting on yield differentials (carry trade) supported by money printing central banks.
i cant wait for the endtime trade
I like AUD/CAD as a short. Limited risk, and possibly lots of room to run to the downside.
Also like Spain's IBEX as a short. Someone has to pay, sooner or later.........wild pig hunting at its best, Hemingway would have loved it.
I replied to an email from one Canadian billionaire 12 months ago, telling him to short the CAD at 1.10...we're inching ever closer...
Worthless advise Leo. It'll never see 1.10
taraxias, the way things are going, the CAD might overshoot 1.10!
Leo...the short of the century got to be the aud/usd
when china unwinds, spec that may happen middle year once inflation peaks (oil)
the cad and aud trade got the correlation thing going
I made the same call a year ago except it was at 1.05, and not to a billionaire.
Funny thing about that story is I also remember when a Harvard BS analyst was making a call for a break over 1.30.
Imagine that?
Oh, how can I not resist a good 4X discussion! It is a weakness of mine, to be sure...
I am convinced that fundamentals in 4X matter the least now than at any time in the history of the game. They simply aren't important, as nearly every trade is contingent on speculation and inside information. That is fine, as long as you're aware of these new "rules."
Another interesting tidbit is that now, the technicals are driving the fundamentals and making the pundits on financial sites dizzy with speculation about the speculation. They will use a long, wooden shoehorn to squeeze some idea about the reaction in fundies to the action in technicals. It is a bass-ackwards idea and difficult to wrap your head around because it is the exact opposite of everything you've been taught and told. (Or is it, really?)
Therefore, the only way to make a trade is indeed of a longer-term variety- not the quick hit-and-runs- unless you're very, very lucky. By using Fibonacci levels as a benchmark, it is possible to see the greatest probability of the market turning. Even then, certain moves are not guaranteed and retracements are still, at best, a very good guess.
Also, with the new rules, one is able to extrapolate the fundamental activity from the technical. For instance, I can now say that oil is going to come off fairly substantially, despite the US summer driving season fast approaching. They will shoehorn some miraculous something or other to fit this activity over the next several weeks. Calm in Libya, a giant Brent discovery- something...
The reason I can say this is because the USDCAD pair has reached a bottom at a major Fibonacci level. A very strong Gartley pattern has emerged on the daily chart, with a nice, trending (i.e., scalpable...) rising reversal that should take the pair into more believable territory at 0.989 level, possibly even to par.
Another clue is that the Euro has reached and breached a major Fibonacci level relative to the USD at the 1.43 level. My friend IQ145 should know that now is the time to short the Euro! And where the Euro goes, so follows the Australian dollar.
I love it when the big boys can get us to throw in the towel because that means, as a contrarian indicator, that it is time to get back into the 4X market big time. The signals are now much clearer than they were yesterday and the reversals should be swift and powerful from these levels.
Of course, the only problem with trading with this style is there is an awful lot of waiting. And waiting.
Waiting. That's something Bruce told me about a long time ago! :D
I am, though, so much more patient now than I have been in my life. I am glad about that. Now, I can see that trading 4X in this market is sort of like being a submarine commander back in the Pacific war.
My brother used to play a video game called SeaWolf and I remember how boring it seemed; just sitting there, waiting for blips to show up on the radar. But when he crossed a transport flotilla, he would sack three giant ships full of (virtual...) soldiers and supplies- a flurry of fury, flashing red, the stinging zipper of a torpedo, followed by a boom! The low rumble and creaking a metal as the score glided softly to the bottom of the ocean. He would be out of there before the destroyers even knew what hit them and made Admiral in no time flat!
Perhaps I should change my nick to SeaWolf? Ha!
Best of luck trading, everyone! Just wait quietly for the fat profile to show itself before launching your fish. In the case of the USDCAD, I think we've got one...
__________
To all of you who have kept me in your thoughts and prayers, I want you to know how much I deeply appreciate it. It has meant so much to me. Now I am halfway through a course of Chinese medicine, my old stomping ground and I am stronger by far than I have been in a long while. I hope I can get back here far more often!
Bruce, I think of you as a true friend. Merci bien. :D
How could you miss on a EUR/CHF short?... seems the world didn't view my prognosis as accurate a couple of months ago. Oh, well... markets aren't logical, never have been. If you believe they are, they'll carry your body out. Keep your stops close, and enjoy the carnival. I'm still trying to envision the market landscape after TSHTF. Do we keep trading, or will the plumbing no longer work?
Dollar vs. euro vs. yen...
Mirror, mirror on the wall. Which is the most worthless fiat currency of them all?
Dollar now down to 1.432 Euros.
What happens when ECB takes their turn in the currency wars?
oops!...wow...
worthless dollar going to 1.60 E?
Now I am worried.
I just feel the higher the Euro goes the better trade it will be eventually to short it. Once the news turns bad, and the focus turns to Europe (it hasn't yet), I don't see how they will support it. The higher they rise the farther they fall. Momentum bitches.
There is one currency that has flown under the radar for nearly ten years and my gut tells me it's ready to pop big time. That currency is the Iraqi Dinar. Word has it from reliable sources that they have just been invited into the WTO and for that to happen, you have to have a viable currency which at the moment is sitting at 1170 to the dollar. With a country that sits on 500 billion barrels of oil, just how long do you think that rate is going to last?
I think you should just give that money to me. I promise every week I'll send you a picture of me going to the pub and ..ONCE a month I'll play a round of golf with your money...I might send you a picture of that. In fact with your money I promise to offer to rent a hotel in the Ottawa valley where ZH assholes can come to bitch, complain, hook up and regard chinese/indian business interests in full swing with their muscle. Oh yeah, we'll get drunk and chase 35-45 year old hot country women that will get a good look at men with teeth. BTW they start with Coors light and end the night with Rye and Coke if it's a good night.
Otherwise, if you have money to burn, go take a carpentry course and a gardening course, I promise you it will pay you something back. Otherwise my offer still stands. I will offer to take your money and spend it foolishly on a party. Or you can throw it down a hole.
One option gives you pain.
Second option makes friends and stories.
Play and pretend mormon, the west was won with annoying people. I promise to own your dump called Utah and run it. Since your leaders are so AWESOME at running a state into the ground. Let a drunk irish Canuck build it again. Obviously you dumbfucks don't know which way is up other than "Gold good".
Protecting yourselves requires a bit more than that...nice IP address btw. anon lays off of the mormons and the muslims. But if you wish. I'm not part of the board. I'm just watching. ack..syn...ack...syn...ack...syn...
I really wish that jews, mormons, and muslims had more than 1980's ideals on how computers work. It would be more fun. But it's a recent thing for you kids.
But of course we got old...time to build the simple virus
Simple
Simple
Simple
Stuxnet is a baby girl fun time toy. If you shit in dads sand box. It's a virus that slaps you once out of line.
Shit in DAD's sand box, lose his tools, lose his book. Some muslim kid down the block loses the notebad on your desk. Fuck YOU. Kiss kiss. I love you. Children should be given a PUSH sometime.
And the tick tock is running kids. Find the egg. Find it and there is a surprise bunny on easter. Want to be smart? Tick tock. No targets that blow up or cause harm...just banks. Daddy built it all...assholes. Learn Cobol fast. Love mum.
brothers...why bother? The game ends.
fuck it. They never bulit it, why offer it, what was given will never be paid. We all enjoy being broke as the senior (asshole engineers).
The term is fuck it. Gun to head. Finish it for most of us. No point.
WE helpedbuild it. Now have fun with the intelligent version. Seriously...I'm hoping both anon and government are weirded out by it. Jack asses. Some little fucktard from MENA plays his hand on a vending machine application. Fuck that.
Have some fun with this, bu august the paper you have in your hand will not be worth anything. Giddyup. The 27 yrd russian. He played with others., Russians and Chinese have many thing in common. They steal ideas, most of those ideas can be found in Waterloo campus in Wayerloo Ontario properly stolen from the old school from twenty year ago when we built it. Noq that enough of of us are underemployed.
No more lights, no more heat...time to live like a geek for all.
<personally could give a shit, but I do have honour otherwise> Is that coffee warm?
Jackasses, fuck'em, that's it. Have the time of your life and I'll be back tommorrow to annnoy people.
You are in rare form . You remind me of a shark with a laser beam on his freakin head . Dangerous .Anyway where is this hotel and is it BYOB?
To each his own cup of poison. Best of luck on your journey.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42448218/ns/business/
Have fun with this...
I gave up on FX... seriously, I'd do well and then all of a sudden interventions would happen or flash crashes and get nailed. I have given up on all markets. I solely buy weekly purchases of gold/silver for long term security at this point. I'm DONE with this BS.
B
Bruce,
Thanks; makes it easy for a novice to get a handle on things. Thanks a lot.
There aren’t many fools trading FX.
As I see it, there are only fools trading FX. You know the type: with cast iron balls ready to go mano a mano with the CBs. LOL. Natural selection at work.
Crazy yes. Foolish no.
Isn't the FX a fool's paradise? Once upon a time only corporates played it to cover real transactions by options or hedges. Now every Tom, Dick and Harry is playing russian roulette thinking he is Goldfinger. Too many suckers in a whirlpool market. Sign of the times...
Almost entirely agree. But there might be 1-2 who tho they can't run's fast's t'bar, might yet be runnin fast 'nuffn then yaw!
Err, "faster than you!"
Personally I just watch CAN-USD as indicator...of something...
There is a winnah trade ... and it sure ain't paper
I'm waiting for CAN/USD to end up at 1.10//.90 then it all comes down again...although I'm not sure that will happen although...inflation appears to be the goal no better way to create some than to fuck with world food supplies and minerals. Same on the Aussie front.
Canada and Australia are getting short term benefits for no buyers during the high point of the commodities production season.
When I see Tapis at $124 Friday $126 Monday $128 Tuesday ... Australian morgages down almost 6% in Feb alone ... rates up in China, chasing inflation, in a credit-RE bubble ...this wont go on for long .. and the Aust economy was struggling to maintain momentum even before the past 3 months.
Same in Canada. Aussie and Canuck economies have always been the reflection of strange siamese twins.
Demographics the same in patterns, economic traits, production, etc...same problems with government. Could almost drive a line through the earth from Ottawa to Canberra and find a straight line.
Both land on Chinese cock as fast as it can to drive it's business and used to play the American card to sell resources. I'm keeping an eye on it CAN/USD. Higher it goes, the more pain is given out.
Yep, both in the shit-mixer now. The MSM economists (a-hem) here are still all smiley-extendy-pretendy-hopey-dumby-shitty, pretending a high AUD is somehow a good thing
duplicate...guru mode...stupid over flow bug from *nix
Yup, the loons running the papers here are selling how awesome of shape Canada is in, when I'm guess here, the Aussie govie plays the same crap the the papers as well. The Canuck govie hides real numbers in immigration gove aways (pays better to float off a boat literate with zero skills and go on refugee status than get a job), welfare, grants and half a job (counting as employment). Although poor cousins in Australia got hit in growing country with one fucked up weather pattern and flood.
Weird how people forget too much water is bad for plants eh?
Nah, the govt here is far too distracted to pay attention to real things, their too busy trying to shoot the Aust econ in the foot with a carbon tax. They don't seem to grasp their special Govt advisors (a-hem) are actually seeking to sink them, not create a sustainable economy.
Can you say distressed assets?
Yes, took 3 days to exit my USD/Yen long after the quake at breakeven.
Now look at it.
When did Fx become a long-term play?
in and out - the only way to play imho. no damn way I'd use the daily / weekly chart time frames with all this b.s. going on.
Sometimes when one doesn't want to cut loss..
When you heard of the CBs weakening Yen you then shorted, right?