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FX Decoupling Comes Early, As Euro Once Again Completely Ignored In Carry Trades
After yesterday's calamitous market selloff, the decoupling in various asset classes indicates just how great the degree of confusion in the market is. The AUDJPY is now indicating once again overbought risk assets, at least on a relative basis. As this is now the only relevant carry trade driving the market, a convergence pair trade here appears an opportunistic entry point to pick a few points.
As for the EURJPY, forget about it. The pair is now decisvely correlation with pretty much nothing. The euro has now fallen out of all carry trade favor.
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All of a sudden, the Turdman has become the Goldman (no pun intended).
However, I truly believe we have reached a critical point in the gold market. In the very short-term, 1250 is quite significant. A move and, preferably, a close back through 1250 may very well spell the end of Evil Empire domination of the gold market. They will always be able to influence but no longer dominate.
Through 1250, we should quickly move back to 1262-1265. Again, there is not, nor has there ever been, a chart formation called a "triple top". Instead, there is "three taps and you're out". 1265 will fail as resistance and we will move next to 1290, 1370 and 1450.
Ben: Get to the choppa now!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvCZQifVM28
*Edit* Looks like the spread just widened :)
some bots want to go to EURJPY, some want AUDJPY. Whats a bot to do? It looks the EURJPY bots are winning right now, but you never know when a few more on turned on to the AUDJPY.
Luckily, we no longer need to follow irrelevant things such as jobs, consumer spending, confidence, etc....
CNN: Dollar should be replaced by an international currency
"The World Economic and Social Survey 2010 is supporting a proposal long advocated by the International Monetary Fund to create a standardized international system for liquidity transfer."
http://www.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/06/29/un.report.dollar/index.html?eref=...
They are moving all in now..they must kill gold
Ha. I posted this earlier today:
Regarding the article earlier this week about the fictional Russian press release of only accepting gold for international trade/settlement and the creation of a Gold Dolar banking system based in London, Switzerland and Singapore, In such a scenario why wouldn't the US/UK/Japan want to get out in front and create their own Gold Dolar more favorable to their interests? Does such a plan already exist? Furthermore if the Russians were to create such a system why not bring China, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Australia, South Africa, The Stans and every other resource/labor rich country on board?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-slap-merkel-her-presidential-pi...
Every market participant is focused on 1040. Like walking on a razor's edge.
Which is exactly why Heli-Ben won't let it break. The usual suspects are zooming again today. IYR and, of course, financials even after the abhorrent employment report.
This TA non-sense is being played out to the hilt. Frankly, it's the only plausible (not really, in my opinion but whatever) thing they can hang their hat on for why the market is resilient.
Obviously, no news irrespective of how damning can have any lasting influence beyond 9:45 EST.
I am more concerned with 1050 than 1040. I am trying to find a good re-entry into TAZ so I can get 15%+ returns in less than a month again.
Do you mean TZA?
You are on the same wavelength
Right on, fd. I was just looking at the chart, too. Looks like 1050 should be bit of resistance that must be watched. If you want to get short in the hopes that we are heading much lower, 1050 would be a good entry point.
Late tomorrow is an entry point. Pretty much doesnt matter where, but 1050 is a good guess. There's a statistical bias for rallies on the first day of the month and quarter. Let it happen.
EURJPY is correlated intraday but it has diverged heavily since yesterday.
Maybe all the talk about it on this blog has had them turning off HAL.
Could it be that the Eur/JPY is just foreshadowing a continuation lower?
Since off topic seems to be the theme here...keep an eye on the Can.$. It and the U.S. stock market have been in lockstep for a year .......
Turdman, how many gold contracts do you want at 1250?
SOLD!
Again, with a close back through 1250.
At any rate, people like you and people like me are what make a market.
Guys, its month end. FX isnt correlated to anything at all today Especially not common sense. Come back tomorrow, or better next week.
Ben: Go-go gadget liquidity!!
Timmay: Brrrrrraaaalabaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!
the fuck. I've asked some pretty smart guys in my investment consulting firm about this trade and they have no idea how the fuck it works. WTF. I'd give up but Tyler keeps posting new charts and getting me all worked up.
Tyler, all your charts are covered over by the blue side bar on the right.
Not if you make your browser mega-wide!
Trade: Long ESU0 (10), Short AUDJPY (6) @ 6:30PM EST.
Converged again right before 10:00pm EST = Easy Money
No similar convergence noted with EURJPY at this time.
Thanks for the tip Tyler! I'll be watching this pair closely.
Certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration. Thanks windows vps | cheap vps | cheap hosting | forex vps