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F/X Reversal Reversal
Remember yesterday how the market ramped when the Yen got whacked, leading to strength in all other pairs and a pounding of the dollar? Alas, Bernanke, Printing and Press LLC is unable to repeat its daily lashing of the greenback.
The dollar carry trade will have to wait one day. Although with only $24 billion worth of Treasuries left to be monetized, maybe, just maybe, all the underground dollar bulls know a thing or two about a thing or two.
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still a case of the USD rallying for the wrong reasons. But JPY to maintain its risk-aversion mojo and USDJPY has yet to drop below 91.
Still waiting for the $6 billion from the Treasuries buy-back to be put to work on the aging crack whores and good time girls, CIT FNM LEH et al. Come on dudes, start hitting the fire button!
Perhaps many of the big boys blew their wad on the struggle during the last hour and a half yesterday, especially the ridiculous ramp in the last five minutes. This POMO could just serve as replenishment.
Who would of that the dollar reversal last friday was BS?? GBP + EUR going lower. SPX be short sell strength. Be long FX vols.
Best indicator that let you know to sell on the new of 10am econ news was HY credit.
Time for Taxes to be put on sidelined money. Tax credit on deployed capital (ex shorts). We need velocity pick up in money.
to 92 and beyond!! okay hang on i gotta go back to clicking refresh at globaleconomicanalysis
Mission control, we have lift off!
Interesting times, indeed.
I have been touting Sterling shorts for a while now... Cable broke support recently.
Just pull up a 1H chart with as many bars as possible and you shall see what I mean.
Payday is coming soon.
Agreed. Take a look at the Ivol surface graph. Its pricing precipitous move starting about 4 months out (gonna happen near here). I have been using GBP/JPY short as my preliminary short to SPX decline.
It sucks but I hear a farting noise, wait no thats air flowing out of a balloon.
Max short sterling myself too. The lows will be re-tested in both cable and most surely in GBPJPY. Only one I don't touch is GBPEUR because who the hell knows about EUR, this being Central Bank reserve playground and all.
Interesting theory for you Raymond, not sure if you've heard this (I know we have discussed having to sell the RR silverware but this goes a bit further): sterling may become the new yen in the mid to long term. Country with huge debt deflation headwinds, a bust banking sector that is outsized as a % of GDP and a VERY pressing need to shift towards export/manufacturing PRONTO, to avoid depression status.
How fun would it be if five years from now, sterling became global funding currency a la 2000s JPY
USD and 10 yr are still bullish and DOW/SP500 bearish.
More here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook
Wow Cramer was right!
Yessiree. I'm fleeing to the safety of the dollar. Just wish I hadn't bought AIG at 55.
Hey Tyler...what the news on Wells Fargo. Twitter is getting rumors its in trouble.
It's not that complicated. Practically everyone is short dollars, so you take the other side.
The hard part is timing it. Find a metric that works for you and you can make a lot of money.
Paul Tudor Jones... is that you?
USDCHF is the place to be
well,I guess it works untill it dosn't. Central banks are notoriously unable to fight a trend. Currency intervention has been tried many times before,and often for a temporary results. By the way whatever happened to AIG?did somebody call up hal9000(td's favorites)and told them "cool it guys,you are drawing way too much attention"?.And what about unsespecting investors who bought at $55 thinking the first Ben would mail a couple of trillion to the second Ben in Dubrovnik(beautiful town that I have spent a night in)and they would make a fortune?do they get a recourse now that whoever running things decided to cool the speculative game?
Everyone ready for the bounce It's 1:35 bounce imminent. S&P will not go below 998.50 days low. It was nice while it lasted.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
How did you get so smart? What don't you know? You must eat alot of spaghetti.
Getting close to the Benny Call (79 DXY)...
Let's see:
Gold prices typically rise in September, an analysis of the historical record shows, as the start of holiday seasons in the world's biggest gold consuming countries tends to drive up demand.
Gold made gains for the past 16 out of 20 Septembers. That's a better track record than any other month of the year, a MarketWatch analysis of gold prices measured by the London fixing showed.
Gold and silver are showing great strength today in light of today's phony dollar rally.
The key idea behind the US Dollar long trade
is the incredible bearishness that reigns in the
Forex Markets on any USD cross rate. But, since
the USD has become a carry currency for the financial
industry, like the yen, there could be some people
out there who would like to play this contrarian game.
And don't call that save haven trade, how can a USD
be a save haven....
Go dollar go
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
Disjoint wouldnt have anything to do with a socialist government being elected in Japan would it?
Selling off of Yen due to the new socialist programs to be implemented.
Current economic woes have huge implications for Japan, China and Germany, all export driven economis. Japan will be the test to see what happens when you change from export liberal pro big business to socialist safety net nanny state.
And am long USD as the fundamentals ARE there. Look at *all of the currencies* and quite frankly USD is the only one that has the ability to be that safe haven.