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FX-Risk Decoupling On In Early Trade Friday
The EURJPY-ES decoupling comes in early today. Then again, it is quad-witching, so all sorts of feces will be flying today. To anyone desperate enough to gamble with the odds stacked against them, our advice is to set up whatever trade makes sense and do the opposite.In the meantime, the decoupling has not failed to close in 9 out of 9 days so far: likely one of the less insane trades for the day.
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So, will ES lower itself to join EURJPY, or will EURJPY rise to the occasion?
Trade today? I think that I'd rather ride down a giant razor blade, nude, and use my balls for brakes.
**!!!!**
I must credit my old friend, Shawn Fitzpatrick, for that rich analogy...oh, the crap we said back in Boy Scouts!
ouch
Amen. Modus operandi for days like these should be: Do nothing.
Well, one would assume the ES would lower....but as Tyler points out, there will be a lot of crazy shit slinging today. Think I'll just watch it unfold.....
ESU0, presently (0900 hours), flatlined at the pivot.
http://www.theessentialsoftrading.com/Blog/index.php/2010/06/08/reaction...
Obvious. It's Quarterly ES futures and options on ES futures expiration day. They're trying to pin ESM0 (which along with the June ES options trades until 9:30am ET) to 1115.00. The now front month contract ESU0 is obviously moving in sync and will probably take a big dive and converge with EURJPY after the NY cash market opens at 9:30am ET
...and 1115 level obvious why?
Does anyone know how to set this chart up using sink or swim? The closest I've come is by comparing the two as percentages.
"our advice is to set up whatever trade makes sense and do the opposite"
This may work because it seems to be like the strategy followed by the traders controlling the direction of the markets nowadays: push stocks, futures, commodities and currencies in one or another direction (doesn't matter) on any given day and reverse some of them on the next day, trade accordingly, repeat. Throw in some correlations on a number of days, decorrelate and harvest from the confusion created. This way short and long squeezes can be maximally exploited, day after day after day, while no one has a clue why it is heading where it is heading... And the anchor points are reset on a daily basis, it doesn't matter if a daily profit is made at S&P level 1200 or 1000 or 950, because it's the percentages that matter.
How it's done, I have no clue, but I suspect it involves big cash, and intricate price and sentiment manipulation with futures and ETF's.
The unexpected (?) rise in S&P in this expiration week seems (?) quite engineered, yet it seems to get no attention from regulators (does it?). Is it really that difficult to find out who built up high stakes in options and futures?
Or are we the only ones who think things are smelling fishy, but don't know we're paranoid?
If the market was going down they would be investigating it immediately, but moves up? No chance. That is why they keep moving it up and not down and anyway it gets to squeeze more shorts who trade on fundamentals
You got to hand it to the Squid.
Burn the retail traders ... check.
Engineer a rally while IPOs come out ... check.
Scare away volume ... check.
Pin the SPX to max pain ... in progress and on track.
The EUR/CHF broke down below the support level when the SNB last intervened...
Head and Shoulders on a 30 min chart for ES still devloping, trades over 1115 negate, below 1100 confirms move to 1085.
we'll probably go over 1120 next week
Obvious. It's Quarterly ES futures and options on ES futures expiration day. They're trying to pin ESM0 (which along with the June ES options trades until 9:30am ET) to 1115.00. The now front month contract ESU0 is obviously moving in sync and will probably take a big dive and converge with EURJPY after the NY cash market opens at 9:30am ET
Seems like you meant the magic 1117. Random up move pre market
Random?
It's very difficult to predict what happens in the end. ESM0 was at 1115 +/- 2 points since last night until that up move to 1118.75 in the last 5 mins. It also looks like there was very little open interest in ESM0 futures and options left, so that's probably why there wasn't a big effort to get it to stick to 1115. Settlement happens as per the CME SOQ rules by the way.
Sarcasm...
Decoupling even further today.
Changed my mind. Snagged a couple of points.
Will pay for bait.
Gone fishin'.
Happy Father's Day to all you Dads.
H&S on ES in question. H&S for Oil forming on 30 min chart with 77 as neckline, just made right shoulder.
I have been seeing this in the last few days. The ES and EJ decouple and then recouple/sync up but far apart. That is the risk in theis method that the resync is elsewhere...
It's not even 2pm yet. Relax. They'll touch each other very soon.
I used to like you Eric...until you started talking about touching people.
Usually people want to touch me. It happens sometimes...
The EURJPY to the ES is as a little 12 year old boy is to Michael Jackson.
Michael Jackson is dead. But this trade is apparently still alive.
IT'S HAPPENING! 3:20PM WITH 40 MINUTES TO CLOSE.
So boring...
C'mon, it's opex on the last hour of trading!!!