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Gallup Confirms Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Despite Recent Move Higher In Stocks
It may not have the pull of those two "other" consumer confidence polls (which always magically seem to beat expectations just when the market is about to roll over), but for sheer depth of polling, the Gallup look at consumer confidence arguably presents a far more detailed and accurate picture than either the Conference Board or the UMichigan index. And today Gallup is out with a report titled: "U.S. Economic Confidence More Negative Than a Year Ago - More Americans rate the economy as "poor" and say it is "getting worse" - of course, as this report is based on truthiness and not on birth-rate adjustments, the only places you may read about it are a variety of fringe blogs. Amusingly, even Gallup acknowledges that the primary driver of consumer confidence (which itself ends up driving stocks), is stocks themselves (they don't call it the dog wagging indicator for nothing) are the computerized and generally arbitrary moves in the stock market: "Despite the recent upturn in the nation's equity markets, Gallup's
Economic Confidence Index, at -34 during the week ending Sept. 12,
confirms a downward trend in consumer confidence that started in
mid-August." We don't expect this level of honesty and objectivity to be repeated in either of the soon to be released other "confidence" indicators, which is sad, because if consumers and investors realized that we have now gotten past the point where the natural ponzi drive of the market works (i.e., confidence correlates with the S&P, people may have been able to save a lot of money which they will otherwise lose in the S&P). But that does not fit with the Fed's agenda, so don't hold your breath on the truth finally coming out on this.
More from Gallup:
Although economic confidence in the U.S. appeared to be improving at
this time last year, just the opposite is the case in 2010. Consumer
perceptions of the U.S. economy are now substantially below the
depressed levels of a year ago.
More Rate the U.S. Economy "Poor" This September Than Last
During each of the first two weeks of this month, 47% of Americans
rated current economic conditions as "poor." While in September of last
year, fewer Americans were giving the economy "poor" ratings than was
true earlier in the year, that is not the case in 2010. In fact,
consumer ratings of current economic conditions are worse now than they
were a year ago.
More Say the Economy Is "Getting Worse" Than Did So a Year Ago
In recent weeks, 63% of consumers have said economic conditions are
"getting worse." These future expectations for the economy are among the
worst of 2010 and have deterioriated substantially from the improving
trend that held sway at this point in 2009.
Economic Confidence Is Not Heading in the Right Direction
Despite increased optimism on Wall Street that the U.S. economy will
avoid a double-dip recession, Gallup's economic confidence data suggest
consumer perceptions of the future course of the economy remain near
their lows of the year. Neither the Labor Day holiday nor the upturn on
Wall Street has been enough to shake consumers out of their doldrums.
The continued weakness in Gallup's Economic Confidence Index during
the first two weeks of September suggests that consumer confidence is
slightly worse now than it was in August. In turn, this implies that
Friday's Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary
estimate is also likely to show a decline from August.
While economists may argue about the relationship between consumer
confidence and the economy, there is no doubt that declining consumer
sentiment is not good for incumbent politicians as they approach the
midterm elections. Worse yet, the current trend in economic confidence
continues to deteriorate and now trails that of a year ago -- making it
harder to argue that the economy is now heading in a better direction
than it was at this point in 2009.
»
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Fed to purchase $27 billion in Treasuries over the next month:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
They just bought $3.4 billion yesterday.
For the month 9/7 - 10/6 they will have purchased about $34.5 billion.
So over $1 billion per day, including weekends. To keep interest rates crammed down.
As of January 2010, China held $843.7 billion in Treasury bonds, down from $939.9 Billion in July 2009: http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
Discussed here: Primary Dealers Prepare To Invest $27 Billion In Fed Money, Levered 30x Over The Next Month, To Buy High Beta Names
Just wait until after the election. Bernokio & Co. will be unleashing a trillion or two in quantitative easing (AKA money-printing).
Bernokio's printing presses are revved up. They will achieve the 'escape velocity' that dimwit Larry Summers was talking about 6 months ago.
Just listen for that sound of the helicopters in the distance. Whop...whop...whop...
...Flight of the Valkyries booming on the Bose system....Apocalypse Right Now...
Naw, they'll hold off until Q3 2011...want that boost in time for November '12.
Does that work out to mean that the Fed is buying the debt the Chinese are dumping? That we're buying our own bankruptcy? Owing ourselves a royal screwing?
Sure looks like it doesn't it? $843.7 billion is actually the Jun '10 figure, but according to Bloomberg the July '10 figure is $839.7 billion, and this is the biggest one month drop in their holdings EVER:
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-slashes-us-treasury-holdings-2010-8
Economic indicators from Gallup are probably worth +10 points on the SPX.
Pass the pixie dust and kool aid this way pls.
Cramer has snorted all the pixie dust. He is, however, selling the kool-aid as part of an "arrangement" to keep the SEC out of thestreet.com's kitchen.
Everyone gets long...nobody gets hurt. Right, Jim?
The Washington Post consumer sentiment index pretty well matches the Gallup survey. Too bad those two polls never get much press.
no surprise therefore that mutual funds are seeing redemptions.
http://www.zew.de/en/presse/presse.php?action=article_show&LFDNR=1538
With all this printing, I might just sell some of my gold in order to go long on ink and paper supply companies.
With politicians making fools of themselves and insulting the intelligence of anyone who comes in contact with them, I expect the confidence numbers to plummet prior to the upcoming mid-terms.......the political advertising is a giant downer.
With all this printing, I might just sell some of my gold in order to go long on ink and paper supply companies.
Help I'm getting old and my memory is fading. Didn't the US$ take a hit before the 1987 crash? The FED raised rates then but they won't now. So besides the Fed, who wants US Tsy's?
I know I don't want them. Isn't Greece paying 5% on their long bills?
Is this a fringe blog? ;)
There can be no new normal. De-leveraging is a black hole pulling everything down into a deflationary vortex. We have not reached escape velocity. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200.
Is that enough metaphors?
It is perplexing why the Gallup brand does not move markets the way the other surveys do... I trust the Gallup methodology & name more than others. F500 outsources to Gallup all the time...
Cascading home value dampens consumer confidence, no ??
Didn't need a poll to figure that out.
But i see the other widely followed confidence indexes to be surprisingly up by say 0.4 points. That gives the market enough fuel to rally 20 pts on the SPX
Galluping goblins conning the bernanculus geithnometer. All engines ahead flank.
the scumbags who orchestrate these short-squeezing rallies and the rest of the mirage need to eat shit and die already. they are destroying all hope of economic recovery.
Oh no! So more american morons are figuring out stawk market does NOT equal 'happy happy joy joy consumer'? Wall St, we have a problem...
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