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Gallup Finds Unemployment Increased In December, Underemployment Is At 6 Month High, Blasts Government Data Fudging

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following this week's ebullient ADP private payrolls report, the sellside has succumbed to an orgiastic frenzy suggesting that tomorrow NFP number may be as high as 580,000 (as reported earlier). While there is no chance on earth of that happening absent all of US data gathering to have been outsourced to Beijing, what is more interesting, is that organizations which track employment trends in real time have found that neither is ADP's optimism justified, nor is there absolutely any basis to expect a blow out NFP number tomorrow. Gallup has found that not only did the unemployment rate increase in December from 9.4% to 9.6%, that disgruntled part-time workers who want full-time work increased from 8.6% to 9.4%, the highest since September, but that the most important metric in a labor force increasingly consisting of part-time workers, underemployment, has surged to 19%, the highest since June! 

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment,
increased to 9.6% at the end of December -- up from 9.3% in mid-December
and 8.8% at the end of November.

Gallup's U.S. Unemployment Rate, 30-Day Averages, January-December 2010 Trend

The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work increased to
9.4% of the workforce in December -- up from 9.2% in mid-December and
8.4% at the end of November.

Percentage of Americans Working Part Time and Wanting Full-Time Work, 30-Day Averages, January-December 2010 Trend

The increase in Gallup's U.S. unemployment rate and the worsening in the
percentage of part-time workers wanting full-time work combined to
raise underemployment to 19.0% in December from 18.5% in mid-December
and 17.2% at the end of November.

U.S. Underemployment, 30-Day Averages, Trend, January-December 2010

So how does one reconcile this seemingly ridiculous divergence between disparate data sets which are supposed to measure the same underlying key economic strength indicator? From Gallup:

The U.S. unemployment picture may seem unusually confusing these days. Gallup monitoring showed a sharp improvement in the jobs situation in November,
particularly as companies added holiday workers. However, the
government surprised Gallup and most other economic observers as it
reported last month that the U.S. unemployment rate increased to 9.8% in
November. It appears that the government made a larger seasonal
adjustment than was generally anticipated for the month.

ADP on Wednesday reported that the economy added 297,000
private-sector jobs -- far above the consensus expectation that the
government on Friday will report the U.S. economy added 140,000 new jobs
overall in December. In contrast, Gallup shows the unemployment rate
increasing as companies let go of holiday workers. At the same time, Gallup's Job Creation Index shows monthly average hiring and firing conditions essentially unchanged over the past three months.

And here is the kicker: as Gallup can not openly accuse the government of manipulating data, it has to apologize on behalf of the BLS of having seasonally adjusted data which skews it (unlike Zero Hedge which openly surmised that the November NFP number was a disaster only to encourage the passage of the latest stimulus, with us also suggesting that the December number will be stellar merely confirming that the stimulus is doing miracles to the "economy"). In other words, the biggest beneficial fudge factor that the government continues to rely on: the various seasonal adjustment (not to mention the birth death model), may well push some imaginary number not grounded in anything close to reality well into the 7 digit range, and result in the S&P jump by a double digit percentage. And as the BLS is wont do to, it will eventually revise the number to something closer to reality, but by then the market will have long forgotten about the most recent manipulation. Bottom line: all in a day's work for the department of truth.

Because the Gallup unemployment measure is not seasonally adjusted,
it tends to more accurately reflect what is actually taking place in the
U.S. job market -- and may not agree with the government's estimate
that is seasonally adjusted. Further, Gallup's data tend to be more
up-to-date than the government's because Gallup polls on the
unemployment situation continuously. Combined, seasonal adjustments and
timing differences likely explain much of the disparity between Gallup's
measures of underemployment and unemployment, compared with those
reported by others.

Gallup's politically correct conclusion is spot on: no matter the spin, the illusion, or the data manipulation:

Whatever the government reports about unemployment on Friday, Gallup's
U.S. underemployment data for the end of 2010 show that nearly one in
five Americans continue to be unemployed or employed part-time looking
for full-time work. In turn, this underscores the importance of job
creation as a top national priority.

It is therefore too bad the top national priority is and continues to be manipulating stock markets, and creating a wealth effect for some and a poverty effect for most.

 

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Thu, 01/06/2011 - 15:52 | 853601 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

This is good for commodities.

Simply means Ben prints more money.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:08 | 853649 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bernank prints more money, further cratering his dismal bond ownings. Catch-22 time.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:32 | 853739 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Dog,

BIMBO ALERT....BIMBO ALERT!  Here is your 1.29 handle on little Miss Euro.  All riders at the L Blankfein Wildest Dreams Park should exit the rides immediately [as oil has been priced for stupid for long enough, thank you].  Prepare for the morally depraved stud man USD to have his way with every living thing.

As for folk in the Eurozone, please don your helmets and your rubber galoshes as Miss Euro leans into the railing and blows chunks of Euro dollars.

And Ben...you keep your interventionist fingers off the FX switch as many of us don't cotton to know intellectual Keynesian bailing out every freak on the entire surface of the planet.  That is YOUR love child...not mine!

 

TEAR DOWN THE MIRROR BALL!

 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:37 | 853744 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I see the poor little starlet puking over the rail! Today must be a monumental feat keeping the wheels on the shaky equities indexes here as the dollar zombie walks up the stairs a bit.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:46 | 853773 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yep....some invisible hand there holding up the little tramp, too.  Unbelievable...which is exactly how Americans will feel when they think about the US market for the next generation...Unbelievable!

But the wheels dog....they are most certainly wobbling...

I bet she blows at some point in the wee wee hours of the night.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:20 | 853925 Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

You both blow ..... and suck ..... and swallow, too.  Bitchez.  

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:38 | 853755 HarryWanqer
HarryWanqer's picture

This seems unlikely.  I only trust government data.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:41 | 853762 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

I feel the same way about cheese

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:46 | 853786 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gubment cheese is the best.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 18:31 | 854134 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Government fudge is also available.

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 18:46 | 897697 steveo
steveo's picture

And it is freely distributed!

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:05 | 853866 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Thanks for the laugh, Tyler... a.k.a. Robo... a.k.a. Harry.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 15:56 | 853605 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Paging Harry Wanger, paging Harry Wanger....

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:47 | 853790 countryboy42
countryboy42's picture

Now you did it. Any second now, he will be talking about how great his used condom business is doing

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 15:58 | 853608 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Sounds like SOMEBODY doesn't want/need an obamacare waiver.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:17 | 853674 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Actually I was thinking someone really needed a hug.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 15:58 | 853614 ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

I would tend to believe Gallup.  However the number flung around for 580K is a trap.  The last week of December was a 4 day work week, many lazy government workers left at the helm, while the senior workers took vacation.  Lest we not forget that most of populated area's were blanketed in snow and unseasonally cold weather.  The number will be light based upon these facts and of course the usual massage.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:05 | 853640 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

And the senior workers aren't lazy turds?

 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:20 | 853690 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

They probably are lazy turds, but they are senior lazy turds.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:28 | 853722 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

http://manifestdeconstruction.blogspot.com/2011/01/of-blizzards-and-angst.html

My analysis of the Gallup consumer discretionary spending seems to underscore their accuracy, they were the only major data source I could find showing that consumer discretionary spending was actually not good.  Que the "surprise" disappointing retail numbers and resultant bloodbath.  Will be doing a whole lot more digging on their data. 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:39 | 853750 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Gallup hasn't cooperated with the standard government line. I've noticed that their consumer sentiment surveys have consistently been higher than the official numbers.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:01 | 853617 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Now there's a surprise!!!  But hey...if real numbers were used the Gubment couldn't lie about their employment stats....

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:00 | 853618 Flapjackmaka
Flapjackmaka's picture

Fire up the printing press!!!

 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:34 | 853621 Michael
Michael's picture

I apply for unemployment compensation every year just so I can be counted in U3 , instead of being buried 6 feet under in U6. I've been unemployed for about 5 years and am not eligible to collect unemployment compensation. I apply for jobs but they never call me for an interview. Good thing my house is paid off.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:06 | 853643 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Cue rose colored economic forecast reassertions from HarryWanger in 3.....2......1.....

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:11 | 853660 Flapjackmaka
Flapjackmaka's picture

heh, The economy is recovering! This is an outlier. Did you not see the headlines on Business Insider, Marketwatch or CNBC? Jobs are being created and you just want America and Obama to fail. Our Secretary of the Treasury and Bernanke are so smart! - /s

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:26 | 853717 youngman
youngman's picture

In just Obama´s cabinet there are 5 new unemployed I think...

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 22:03 | 854780 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

You are not eligible for unemployment if you quit.  

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:10 | 853650 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I think ADP is going to come out the looser in this. The NSA UE numbers for December were quite high with 3 out of 4 weeks showing over 500,000 new filings. The interesting numbers will be participation rate, NILF and size of workforce. these have all been heading in the wrong direction for a decade. I see nothing that has happened to change that.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:12 | 853661 JimboJammer
JimboJammer's picture

The  Fed  and  the  White  House  know  that 

they  must  not  let  the  general  public  loose

confidence...  they  will  fudge  the  numbers ..

and  do  anything..  when  the  americans

loose  confidence  in  the  U S  Dollar  ,...all 

bets  are  off...  >>  Flash  Crash ....

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:17 | 853679 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Who are they fooling anymore? And what would it matter at all if 'the general public lost confidence'? Theyre just jerking off is all.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:36 | 853747 Sig Sauer
Sig Sauer's picture

WHAT??  Lo these past few months I've been the been the beneficiary of a complementary reach-around and didn't even know it??

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:13 | 853662 max2205
max2205's picture

when's the next UI getting extended?  It's cold outside

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:12 | 853663 Azwethinkweiz
Azwethinkweiz's picture

Anyone else catch Jesse Jackson rambling about using data from bus drivers and parking meters today on CNBC? I'm beginning to think the government gets their data much in teh same manner. Unemployment figures are derived at by averaging the number of people who visited Disneyland and subtracting that number from those who visited Knotts Berry Farm AND bought a funnel cake.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:39 | 853759 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I love listening to Jesse Jackson talk, hillarious.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:12 | 853664 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

and is there any reason to trust this data.......blogoshere has been writing that unemployment is actually more than 20%

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:27 | 853714 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Well if you look at the last 2 cycles and intent of the 3rd. The industrial revolution provided machinery for supression. The informational technology revolution provided the machinery for spying and manipulating.

Next in line was the green revolution. Which was supposed to be some big high minded save the earth thing. It was really just a vehicle for taxing the crap out of luxury so that all the luxury was only in upper class hands with none for middle class. When the green movements plan card was outed it was no longer a functioning in tact approach. So now you are stuck with system that wants and needs intense labor and effort with nothing to put it towards. We do not have to work so hard. We can simply do a little work and relax and have a high standard of living. But we have to build our own graves and develope the things our masters need to control us.

This leaves us vapor locked. There is no way forward. There is no trust going forward and the system that feeds and thrives off giving and then taking it all back through hidden theft is stuck forced to steal much more than will be tolerated. While people lay down strong thick walls that can't be breached and become more and more antagonistic and unapproachable.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 20:11 | 854451 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Old fashioned way to break a vapor lock.

 

Pour gasoline directly into the Holley Double Pumper and get the &^%$ out of the way when that motor is cranked.

 

And dimwit key holder better keep it cranking when fire rises high. It will go away as soon as the engine catches it and runs.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:17 | 853678 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Yet another explanation for the Dollar surge.  

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:18 | 853683 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Gallup is a terrorist organization and will be shut down. Long live the President BHO, The Fed, and the corrupt Congress.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:45 | 853778 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

G-had

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:19 | 853686 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Employment statistics are so confusing.  I just hit a fast food joint for my economic updates:

Competent middle-aged workers = depression

Mostly competent college students and/or elderly workers = recession (or recovery)

Totally incompetent pimple-faced teenagers = growth/boom/full employment

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:49 | 853796 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

I like that!  +1

 

So which one of these three did you see?  I don't frequent fastfood.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:19 | 853872 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

it's beyond option A, Even fast food has to slash prices to keep the customers. Some lost revenue

http://www.economist.com/node/16380043

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 19:26 | 854288 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Now and then I hit the local Subway.  The service is excellent.  The former construction supervisors and office managers build a mean sandwich.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:34 | 853976 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

Excellant.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:21 | 853692 Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

I clearly remember that the Fed guy with hair on the chin but not on the head , saying in Davos that he'd  seen "green shoots" coming out of the crisis....may be he's been smoking one too many of those green shoots.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:25 | 853698 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Will someone stuff a rug down Gallup's throat. Who the hell is running this circus anyway?

Timmy, where the hell are you? Oh, that's right. He's shepherding the loan application through the BIS.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-day-another-debt

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:23 | 853700 Lincolns Mullet
Lincolns Mullet's picture

I heard the government is hiring dead fish and bird picker-uppers for $500/hour.  That should help fluff the numbers a bit.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:25 | 853708 Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

500 per hour...come on that can't be true

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:26 | 853715 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Will be after a few more years of helicopter Ben at the controls.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:01 | 853848 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Years?  Try months.  Er um weeks.  Days?

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:28 | 853723 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Stage workers at KenCen and CarneyHall earn $292,000/year average

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 18:28 | 854121 Confuchius
Confuchius's picture

Bahamas;

Gwan; it's the same price as the normal incompetent Bay St. lawyer, and you get visible results!

 

Confuchius

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:40 | 853701 hambone
hambone's picture

OT - Looking at CBO's estimated increases to the debt for the "great compromise" tax extensions, tax cuts and have a couple questions.

CBO estimates increase to the debt as follows due to the "compromise" on top of already estimated $1T deficits in '11 and again '12...

'11:  $374B (+69B) = $443b

'12: $423B (+45B) = $468

'13: $120B

Total cost (w/o ongoing debt costs) = over $1T (compiling existing and above #'s, CBO estimates debt will grow by over $3T in '11 and '12)

Question is CBO shows a reduction of $114B for Title 6 temp SS tax reduction over '11 and '12.

Then CBO also shows a net purchase of $114B in T's and shows them as an asset in SS.  Where does the $114B to purchase the T's (which the money is then used to pay gov bills) come from and where does it show up??? 

$114B in T's that are bought with money that wasn't collected, then spent to pay our bills, and then T's shown as an asset?  Or is this not shown on a deficit level (annual) but will show up on the gross debt level as another $114b in unfunded???

Edit - I think to answer my own question is to say that the actual cost of the program is an additional $114B off in SS unfunded world.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:28 | 853728 V for Vendetta
V for Vendetta's picture

Ben hired more workers for his printing press. The more he prints, the more people he employs in his press, the lesser the unemployment claims, the better the economy! Yay!

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:28 | 853729 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

The numbers were, are and will be fudged in a vain attempt to protect Democratic losses in the Executive, Congressional and Judicial branches of government.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:32 | 853736 docj
docj's picture

Pfft - like any of this will matter when the Ministry of Truth prints a +580K NFP number tomorrow morning.

Numbers matter.

Facts?  Truth?  Reality?  Not so much.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:33 | 853737 Jerry Maguire
Jerry Maguire's picture

So unemployment is up.

It's deflation then.  How can it not be?

http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2010/12/30/inflation-deflation-debt/

See generally articles on "money":

http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com

 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:42 | 853764 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Inflation in things you need to buy, deflation in assets you own.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:46 | 853788 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

exactly. Great combo 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:55 | 853818 Racer
Racer's picture

Thanks to ZimBen and the Genocidal Inkjets

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:57 | 853826 Racer
Racer's picture

dup due to server error

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:35 | 853741 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

2 nights ago, local news reported that the UE rate increased in RTP in North Carolina for the month of December. This represents unemployment going up in an area of N.C. with a highly educated workforce.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:42 | 853766 wherewasi
wherewasi's picture

 

to further improve the employment statistics, underemployed who lose their jobs will now be categorized as underunemployed and will not affect the number in the column labelled unemployed

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:42 | 853772 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Anyone notice basically ALL of the permabull trolls have evacuated the place today? And all it takes is a little red day in the fake equities? Geez, that was easy...just imagine when real market tanks start happening.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:51 | 853797 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yep...they see the little tramp leaning against the rail...and they know a dollar rally is coming...which is going to play hell with their LONG EVERYTHING, "V" SHAPED RECOVERY nonsense.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:55 | 853816 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

It is in my opinion the dollar rally is over.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:03 | 853842 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its all fun and games at the party start when all the girls are saying 'come on I can out drink you, lets do shots lets do TEN shots'!
Their hard Euro partying lasts about an hour till the innevitable 'party chick downward spiral' kicks in, and theyre on the balcony crying and hurling over the rail and asking where her friend went.
We're at the 'wobbly glassy stare' point right now, with a lot of swallowing going on...full hurling over the balcony before you can get out of the way to hold her hair back as Mojitos splatter the sidewalk below.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:04 | 853861 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Post of the Day.  Done and Done.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 18:39 | 854153 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Amen Dog,

You said it...even now...she is listing...leaning...sporting her .29 handle.  It ain't gonna be pretty, and I ain't holding her hair again, Dog.  I've done that.  One of you Euro gents is going to have to step up.

Glassy-eyed and swalling a lot....LOL!

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:51 | 853798 jnesfield
jnesfield's picture


This is the killer line in this story "Whatever the government reports about unemployment on Friday, Gallup's U.S. underemployment data for the end of 2010 show that nearly one in five Americans continue to be unemployed or employed part-time looking for full-time work" Ruminate on the implications take it local. I was wondering why the divorce and illegitimacy rates are increasing people are staying home and fucking their next door neighbor.   Of course if you can't pay your mortgage, because you don't have a job why not go full boat and fuck your neighbors wife.   The example provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reaffirms the new American traditions of fucking thy neighbors wife.   This new paradigm of social intercourse is now self sustaining with more bastards to fill ranks of government jobs being produced at a record rate, you this is change we can believe in bastards beget bastards and a New Hope is born.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 19:46 | 854357 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Hey, my next-door neighbor is totally hot. How do you think I should bring up the subject of a nooner?

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:54 | 853812 onlymyopinion
onlymyopinion's picture

More ammo to support QE3!  Provides me a little more comfort in holding on to my long positions.   

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:00 | 853854 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Catch-22...as Bernank even thinks of mentioning more QE the bonds he holds blows up in his face totaly...hey its not exactly fall of 2008 anymore ya know.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:14 | 853904 onlymyopinion
onlymyopinion's picture

Agree!  But as long as my longs continue going up everyday I really don't care---LOL.  I'm too stupid to understand these things but my brokerage account has been going up for the last 2 years.  Stay long grasshoppa.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:57 | 853836 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Psychological Warfare bitchez, Government numbers make me feel good.

Real unemployment/underemployment  is north of 20%.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:04 | 853860 voltaic
voltaic's picture

Rasmussen also shows some job weakness for December: 


Eighteen percent (18%) of working Americans now report their firms are hiring, the lowest result found since July. Twenty-three percent (23%) say their firms are laying workers off. Last month marked the first time in over two years that the number of workers who reported their firms were hiring equaled the number laying workers off.

Among private sector managers, 19% say their firms are hiring, while 22% say their firms are laying people off, showing a slightly larger gap than last month.  Typically, a decrease in the Employment Index suggests that the government's official report on job creation will be weaker than the month before.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/indexes/rasmussen_employment_index/rasmussen_employment_index

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:07 | 853874 Michael
Michael's picture

Who do they think their fooling?

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:16 | 853915 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

Men's underwear sales numbers have become non-existent in the mainstream media 2010.  Used to be a great econ-indicator.  Are the recent numbers getting buried? Can anyone find numbers for 3Q 2010?

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:19 | 853928 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

We need more stimulus!!

How about no income taxes for a year!!

Let Bernanke monetize the entire budget with no taxes!!

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:20 | 853934 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Could see a massive gap up or gap down on the dollar tomorrow, based on the NFP.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:43 | 853992 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Could get a huge rain storm tomorrow....er...maybe not....

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:28 | 853963 pitz
pitz's picture

I know engineers (electrical/computer) who have spent much of the past decade not working, but rather, sending out job applications, rarely getting responses.  A few hundred or thousand people working at Google or Facebook (which, btw, barely have earnings), barely makes for a vibrant tech industry.  H1-B has ruined the lives of so many Americans who just want to be given a chance at a decent job. 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:43 | 853998 ExploitTheMarket
ExploitTheMarket's picture

Facebook may barely have earnings but GOOG is about to exceed earnings estimates, possibly by a mile (they report on Jan 20), and they last reported $7.64/sh.... I agree unemployment is likely to remain high but there are pockets of strength...at least in terms of earnings....

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 21:32 | 854689 pitz
pitz's picture

Into a collapsing consumer economy????  Lol.  Good one...  Google's as good as cooked unless they can figure out some revenue sources in the next few years that aren't tied to the dying industry of consumption and consumer advertising. 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 19:48 | 854363 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

People who send out resumes electronically are not really looking for a job, because companies do not hire based on resumes anymore. Those people are merely pretending to look for a job, so they can spend the rest of the day on Facebook or downloading porn.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 21:30 | 854685 pitz
pitz's picture

"because companies do not hire based on resumes anymore."

What do they hire based upon then?  Or do they simply not hire Americans?  Given the ethnic cleansing of the tech industry and IT shops across the US, its pretty obvious what's going on.

 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 21:04 | 854588 Parth
Parth's picture

Hi Pitz,

I have been in IT staffing since 1999 and as of today whenever I look for IT employees I get only H-1s on job board and greencard holders who recently switched H-1s. Our companies assessment is that without H-1s we would be sunk as there is a severe shortage of updated skills in the American workforce (even the new local college grads we hire are F-1s from India as they have Masters degrees while US born workforce usually have bachelors only). In fact the next wave of job losses in IT in USA will not be due to H-1s or L-1s, but the fact that fewer new projects or companies will be launched in USA as enough qualified staff is available specifically in India.

H-1s may?? displace an American IT worker, but surely they create other local US jobs. The next wave will be 100% overseas companies i.e. further loss of jobs like home sales, services, insurance, car sales, etc.

Our companies assessment was H-1s were a benefit for US economy and the next wave of total offshoring will be a disaster for local economies. You may have to move to India for an IT job. Thats change you can believe in!

 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 21:13 | 854626 Parth
Parth's picture

Hi Pitz,

 

Picture this-

About 150,000 H-1s and 10,000s of L-1s and 300,000 graduate students make it to US shores every year. If this goes to zero per year thats 400,000 less taxpayers, cars sold, savings accounts, foreign students paying full unsubsidized tuition, etc. On an average job search we look fo 15 engineers for pre-screen (using DICE or Monster) at 5 to 10year experience level and we usually find absolutely no more than 2 to 3 American candidates. Out of 15 candidates we select we find no more than 3 US citizens qualified and at least 12 non-US citizens. THere just arn't enuff local engineers.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 21:23 | 854665 pitz
pitz's picture

BS, total BS.  The only reason you don't find American candidates is because you're not looking for them, or your definition of 'qualified' is bizarre.  Only 1/3rd of US-trained engineers actually are able to find jobs in the field, and rates of pay are bizarrely low (ie: $80k/year is the 'average' for an engineer, across all experience classes, in the electrical/computer field these days).

If 400,000 less H1-B/L-1's came to America, that would mean 400,000 more jobs for Americans, higher salaries, and probably just as imporant, more respect for the education and dedication that goes into the job of being an engineer. 

"There just arn't enuff local engineers" -- total lie.  I can't believe you expect anyone to believe such dogshit.  I should punch you.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 21:27 | 854677 pitz
pitz's picture

Americans would get Masters degrees if the business case existed for them to do so.  $80-$100k salaries for engineers do not pay enough for a BS (5 years typically) + a M.Sc. (another 2-3 years), + a very high probability of unemployment.

There might be a shortage of 'updated' skills, but this is because US firms, particularly in tech, haven't hired Americans in the past decade.  Silicon Valley has basically been ethnically cleansed of young Americans, even though, young Americans went into the tech fields in record numbers in the late 1990s due to the dot-com boom and the excitement of the Internet.  The only way this gets reversed is to take away the bankers' extravagant salaries and bonuses, and redirect those resources towards Americans, bred and raised. 

 

H1-B's also facilitate offshoring.  Once a shop is 100% H1-B (which most are in the Silicon Valley these days), its pretty easy to just move the entire operation, overnight, overseas, instead of putting up with the over-taxed, stifling environment in the USA, where the government will just consfiscate any profits and give them to banker friends.

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 02:30 | 855251 Parth
Parth's picture

Ok Pitz,

Just do this-

Go on DICE or MONSTER search resumes- type in these skills - "Java and SOAP" or "JAVA and Spring and Hibernate", location Northern California, look for 5 to 10 year experienced candidates for contract at $65 to $85/hour. Then run the search and then post here how many US citizens show up in the search. Then call them and ask them some standard technical questions to screen them(hire another Java programmer for screening) and ask them if they would like a contract opportunity with a hot company in Silicon Valley. List all the "Yes's".

If you find even 35% of the candidates are US citizens- you win, you needn't punch me but I owe you a round of drinks. My bet is you wouldn't even find 10% of the search to be US citizens.

 

And oh, we hire local graduates in Bay area- 99% of Masters degree students in Computer Science are foreign origin. A lot of Bachelors students are Americans. Now tell me who would you hire- a Masters graduate or a Bachelors graduate?

And another oh! Once the shops that you say are 100% H-1 its really not easy to move them to India as Indians do like the fresh air in California.

 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:32 | 853970 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Gallup is just jealous because the gubbermint has better numbers. lulz

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 18:00 | 854043 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

OK, found an interesting inverse correlation between Hanes and FAS.  Seems Bernanke takes of mainstreet's underwear with QE2 so that wallstreet can give an easy ass fuck:

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=HBI&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=FAS

Fri, 01/07/2011 - 04:55 | 855372 foofoojin
foofoojin's picture

T-Minus 30 days to wake up call.

|In addition, a change affecting data collected on unemployment duration |
|will be introduced in the household survey in January 2011. Presently, |
|the Current Population Survey can record unemployment durations of up to |
|2 years. Starting with data collected for January 2011, respondents will |
|be able to report unemployment durations of up to 5 years. This change |
|will likely affect one data series in this news release: the average |
|(mean) duration of unemployment, which is found in table A-12. The change |
|does not affect the estimate of total unemployment or other data series on|
|duration of unemployment. Additional information is available at |
|www.bls.gov/cps/duration.htm.

Sat, 01/08/2011 - 04:11 | 858372 wee
wee's picture

I am a Singaporean Engineer working in Singapore. Just 10% of my current software team are Singaporean. This has very little to do with technical skills, but more on office politics. Once a China Chinese or India Indian become the technical manager, they will be inclined to hire their own folks.

Meanwhile, the local higher managers focus on playing politics and did not interfere with the hiring decisions of technical managers in order that some dirty jobs can be done reliably.

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