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Gallup Polling Paints A Much Bleaker Economic Outlook Picture Than UMichigan

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Even as the increasingly more unreliable UMichigan consumer confidence index surged more than expected in June, to the highest reading in two years, in yet another doctored attempt to stimulate consumers to buy assorted trinkets they don't need and max out their credit cards, a comparable, and traditionally much more comprehensive Gallup polls, paints a vastly different picture. As the chart below demonstrates,  the spread between those who see the economy as getting better (32%) and worse (63%) has hit 31, and is threatening to break out the highest reading recorded in the past year. It is no surprise that with nobody trading at all, US stocks are back to their old trickey of spiking ever higher on no volume and on increasingly worse news out of Europe, and not to mention on an atrocious NFP and retail saels report for May, both of which are now promptly forgotten.

Gallup spread between those who see the economy as getting better and worse.

Confirming the above data, is the Gallup economic confidence index which has also taken a sharp turn lower.

A brief reminder on Gallup's polling methodology:

Each day Gallup asks Americans if they think that economic conditions
in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse. The
results are reported here and also included in Gallup's consumer
confidence measure. Results are based on telephone interviews with
approximately 1,500 national adults; Margin of error is ±3 percentage
points.

 

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Mon, 06/14/2010 - 10:36 | 412497 lbrecken
lbrecken's picture

do you expect anything different from Michican?

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 10:39 | 412501 Racer
Racer's picture

Michigan CONsumer CONfidence...

based on phone calls to 500 people!

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 10:39 | 412502 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Is there ever any good news?

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 10:40 | 412506 Headbanger
Mon, 06/14/2010 - 11:46 | 412623 Kali
Kali's picture

HB, i luv your avatar, crack up every time I see it.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 12:26 | 412704 Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

+1

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 10:40 | 412507 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Hey, UMichigan, try polling people IN YOUR OWN FRIGGIN' STATE, especially DETROIT.

Too bad there is NO Michigan State, like in the old series Coach.  This FARCE of a U.S. Goobermint and Whore Street-controlled Place of Higher Education could be SHUT DOWN!

The real SITUATION COMEDY is not located at the old Coach series, but at the UoM.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 10:40 | 412508 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

I've never seen someone spell "Michigan" wrong twice in a row.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 10:42 | 412512 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

This is simply a renewed effort of the ....'say it enough times and they will believe it'. The hope is that the US consumer will go back to buying heavily (which results in going back into debt). I don't think that will materialize...with 10+ million on extended UE and 40+ million on SNAP a good portion of US consumers are offline. Many (myself included) are deleveraging as quickly as possible on all fronts including mortgages.....and there is no way I am putting anything in equities or bonds.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 10:47 | 412519 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Pretty sure I am the problem as I drive around in my 12 year old SUV, watch my 7 year old TV, and work on my 6 year old desktop system.

 

Bottom line is, there is no reason for me to buy anything unless the one I have fails. 

 

And I seriously doubt that I an the only one in this category.  If I do not already have it, I really do not need it.

 

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 11:27 | 412581 aheady
aheady's picture

You're definitely not the only one.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 11:38 | 412602 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

You can make that three.

I watched my father lose everything twice growing up.  It is not something easily forgotten.  Nor is it easily taught to those who have not lived through dark times.

 

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 12:55 | 412757 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

We're right there with you.  Tuesday is now my official mending/repair day.  Things we used to toss and replace are now getting fixed. 

It's lovely to see what you can fix with a needle, thread, and time.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 13:03 | 412772 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

4 pairs of jeans that I've stitched up the crotch at least 2-3x.

2 phones in 10 years.

Eat beans and franks more than any time in my life.

Don't use paper products but TP.

The only thing I buy is shoes to fit my wide feet but I donate the ones that kill me.

I don't need to do these thing I just do it because I like the things I have and they still "work" for me. 

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 23:18 | 414013 marc_hanes
marc_hanes's picture

I am sure many are thrilled by the hole in the crotch of my pants. Hey, I do it for them.

But when it comes to fighting larger "planned obsolescence" one is usually at a structural disadvantage. One of the reasons I was an early Mac fan was the durability of the physical product. No longer. The longevity of hardware or software from Apple has sunk to the level of its competitors. Really, I don't buy anything with any expectations of longevity. But, hey, I really don't buy much anymore.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 11:53 | 412526 Kina
Kina's picture

The only thing the markets track is the daily edicts of the Fed.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 10:53 | 412530 Joe Shmoe
Joe Shmoe's picture

I have to call bullshit here on some of these posts (I know, you're all going to crucify me for this).  While I disagreed with the reaction to the Michigan poll, we all would have been saying our I-told-you-sos if that number had come out negative.  It does in fact look like the Gallup poll is more accurate, and it squares with my perception of the economy, but we're a bunch of fools if we just pick the data that makes our own case for us.

And, as for the post above that decries the validity of the methodology, a 500 point sample size is certainly large enough to be predictive, with narrow standard deviations.

 

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 12:02 | 412661 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

but we're a bunch of fools if we just pick the data that makes our own case for us

Why not?  The bullish assets bubble reflationist (aka Fed Lover) camp do it all the time.

Just because we highlight certain data points, doesn't mean we ignore non-confirming data.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 13:05 | 412780 wolfsonite
wolfsonite's picture

Joe, a 500 point sample size is ONLY sufficient for statistical significance if you're taking the sample from a random pool. You really think Michigan's sample pool was sufficiently "random"?

 

More importantly, if you're trying to randomize your pool against 20 different variables (age, gender, income, attitude, background, job, ...), even 500 is not quite enough to give you at least 30-50 random samples from within each group.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 11:30 | 412588 Pat Hand
Pat Hand's picture

contrarianism would suggest this is a hugely bullish report

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 11:31 | 412589 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Umich is just a puppet.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 12:33 | 412719 Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

Agreed,

The markets and all it's influencing factors, not to different, sadly, from America is subject to an ever more obvious Fascism.

All these jokers trying to game the system and make money form the coming collapse better take long hard look at history.  Socialism will consume you to the lowest possible denominator.

  

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 11:42 | 412610 thesapein
thesapein's picture

I'm not sure this means much. The sample population isn't random; it's only meaningful for the group of people who answer calls from strangers, then take the time to answer survey questions. I've never even gotten the call. Have you? So it's a mistake to extrapolate this data to the population in general.

Also, the questions and answers are too vague. Is the economy getting worse? No matter what it's doing, the answer depends on perspective. As bad investments go bad, I might say things are getting better. My answer would depend on who is asking.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 11:44 | 412616 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Gawd guys pls - if the exchange markets are the only ones  that can be manipulated then they will be as FED tries to inflate, extend and pretend, and try to create the animal spirits, etc.  ITS BECAUSE THERE IS NO PLAN B- All in the name of national security - roll with it don't fight it....

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 12:15 | 412681 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Whats bleaker than Much Bleaker?

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 13:46 | 412885 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

lim bleak 0-infinity = doomcat

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StljBI0059U

 

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 13:06 | 412785 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Of course UMich wants things to be great Obama just promised them more indebted servants by having the U.S. govt take over student loans.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 15:00 | 413055 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

>.< comment removed.

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 14:10 | 412953 Marvin_M
Marvin_M's picture

don't know about any of you but I feel better after reading Dennis Kneale's optimistic article on Yahoo...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kneale-Are-We-Psyching-cnbc-602607617.html...

Mon, 06/14/2010 - 14:41 | 413020 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

Gallup data remain in the multi-month range.  The news is not these small fluctuations but how miserable the baseline data are. 

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