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Gallup Sees Consumer Confidence Tumbling To December Lows
It was just earlier this week that a bunch of irrelevant confidence trackers said that US consumer confidence had hit 3 year highs. Oddly enough, ground data not only does not confirm this data, but says it is merely more baseless propaganda. According to Gallup, which actually knows how to poll, "Americans have become much less confident in the U.S. economy over the
past two weeks, with Gallup's Economic Confidence Index falling from -18
to -30 during that span. The -18 Index score from two weeks ago was the
most positive Gallup had measured in the last three years." And as we suspected when we reported the latest confidence data "These results ... indicate the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of
Consumer Sentiment, released Friday but based mostly on interviewing
from early and mid-February, was essentially out of date when it was
released. The Index of Consumer Sentiment showed consumer confidence to
be the highest it has been since January 2008, similar to what Gallup
showed two weeks ago. But Gallup's latest weekly update suggests
consumer confidence has fallen back to where it was in early December." Luckily bad news no longer matters.
From Gallup:
More on this index which actually makes sense:
The slump in confidence is likely tied to gas prices, which have risen
sharply amid growing political instability in the Middle East, most
notably in Libya. The U.S. Department of Energy reported an increase in
gas prices from an average $3.14 per gallon nationwide during the week
ending Feb. 14 to $3.38 this past week. In addition, news media focus on
the challenges governments are having in passing budgets may also
affect Americans' perceptions of the economy.
All key demographic and attitudinal subgroups are less confident now
than in mid-February. The drop is slightly greater among Democrats, who
were in positive territory two weeks ago, than among Republicans.
Younger adults, Democrats, and higher socioeconomic status respondents
remain relatively more confident than other subgroups.
The implication is that just like the market has an attention span of a few milliseconds, the same goes for the US consumer:
The recent trend in Gallup's Economic Confidence Index shows that consumers' views of the economy can change fairly quickly in response to events. This means consumer confidence measures based on monthly reporting periods, such as those conducted by the Conference Board and Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan, may not reflect the current state of consumer attitudes when they are released, because they are based largely on surveys conducted during the first part of a month. Should the current trend continue, other measures of consumer confidence will show declines in their March reports -- which are released near the end of March -- though the decline appears to have begun in late February.
The short-term prospects for a turnaround in consumer confidence do not appear great, with gas prices likely to continue to rise, with state and federal governments facing increasingly difficult budget situations, and unemployment remaining high.
We somehow doubt this latest piece of actual objective data will make its way into the Mainstream Media's news rotation any time soon.
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No White House invites for truth tellers.
wtf just happened? the market closed on the lows on tha first of da month?
But I thought ben said people don't mind paying more for gas and food
This isn't supposed to happen. I'm so scared.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4j_cOsgRY7w
Nah, someone still has a pocket full of Kryptonite. That wanabe pop in the DXY was a hoot. I theorize ACB's picking up some USD on the back of China PMI numbers. If you can sell it against your currency, then you can certainly buy it back. (Same goes for consumer confidence.)
hey tyler, looking at my Reuters, there was a flash crash up in the SPY's 5 minutes ago on heavy volume? Is this anything. Same with the Q's
Look again. It's going, going, gone.
Blub blub blub
just saw that...its probably some trick to reset the algo's into buy mode.takes the intra day vwap and resets it higher? not sure.. its above my pay grade
yet the knicks are selling tickets to see losers lose for $2,000.
Welcome to CUSSA.
The Communist United Socialist States of America.
There is no going back up the slope. Never again in our lifetimes, at least not the way it used to be. It's over.
This is just the mirage dissolving.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/01/on-outsourcing-and-its-ills/
My confidence in the gallup poll is at an all time high...
What a fickle customer, that ubiquitous U.S. consumer - low today, euphoric tomorrow. Whatever you say, pollsters… LOL.
Maybe the homeowner crowd started reading Zillow.....$650 billion of home equity evaporated last quarter. www.doctorhousingbubble.com
I'm confident.
I'm very confident.
I'm confident that usa consumers are up shit creek with no paddle.
Ahaaaaha! Good buzz, verrrrrrr gut!
ORI
I still think that the population they 'interview' are all currently (or just recently unemployed) traders and brokers.
gallop is a terrorist polling group.
they hate america and all it stands for.
i hear they do polling for al jazeera! in arabic no less!
I love gallop...looking forward to the revolution. I also hate what America stands for today and look forward to redefining what America stands for something more along the lines of what the founders intended.
Should make for good sport.
Everything is FINE! Ben said so! Just ignore those corpses as you go whistling by the graveyard! Bennie is pumping the economy, like a two-dollar whore!! After all, would a banker screw you over? Buying our own debt, with computer keystrokes!? What's not to like???
I'm sure The Ministry of Truth will have a rebuttal to Gallup's findings in due time.
Ve have vays of polling correctly!
No surprise, wait till Recovery Summer II gets here.
There still must be snow out there somewhere
Epic fail for BB - Oil, Gold, Silver all closing at all time or near time highs...epic fail Ben. You fucked America and I hope someone does you the same favor...or if you are lucky you and your ilk will be "protected" from the populace in prison w/ Bernie.
Come now. Benny B and his ilk are nothing more than modern day alchemists. Those guys really believed they were onto something with the whole lead to gold thing. Being a prestigious member of the court was a fringe benefit...
I'm a softie and yet I won't lift a finger to stop, slow, or speed whatever horrible outcome the new American revoulutionaries determine is this man's fate.
Time to start thinking about who you want on your team!!! We're also going to need some "handles", something like "Average Joe's" vs. "Globo"??? Seems more apropos than red coats and revolutionaries? Big O may want to turn those amphibious crafts around to begin his own fight against the American populace as oil goes along w/ all imports and dollar dies a miserable death...
Roger that, the return to sound policy shouldnt take a revolution. But when people have to pay HUGE state and local alcohol y tobacco taxes coming up for governments to raise money, and pay $5+ at the gas pump -- people are going to go FLASH MOBing like you read about. Memo to self: steer clear of crowds and pump gas in your tank with the engine runing ready to make a quick getaway when this SHTF.
TPTB and MSM should stop pretending and just embrace their economic inner Charlie Sheen:
"Sure the economy is fucked -- so what? We freebase POMO and snort USD out our asses while we hang out with the Godesses, but we're OK with it! It's who we are!"
Embrace your inner Tyler Durden alter-ego!!!
No time better than the day the dollar died to find your tougher you.
Thanks for the laugh. Good one.
Just how, exactly? The rectum is an out-door. You can inhale dollars via the rectum, and then defecate them in brown. ( like late autumn) Freebasing POMO? Just realize you're snorting FLOUR! I get your point though. Thanks for the input.
I don't agree with the premise.
-Ben
http://apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/2011/03/building-bridge-to-hawaii-fnma-fhlmc.html
Building A Bridge to Hawaii: FNMA/ FHLMC Reform
Hey that's what happens when you focus on boosting 'CONfidence' without actually boosting the real economy. EZ cum, EZ go.
I guess those consumers they polled weren't holding physical.
But The Ministry of Truth sez things have never been rosier!! Here's the summary:
We got booming manufacturing, factories belching smoke over bustling metropolises, we got shop till you drop consumers on a spending binge for designer this and that, we got big ticket items flying off the shelves, people on tip toes reaching to afford the upmarket with their credit cards, you can hear the confident roar of American enterprise through the soundproof windows of your swanky apartment in the sky!!!
It's the best report since 1973!
If consumer confidence does plunge there is no bottom to catch the economy. For the past almost 3 years TPTB have been working to rebuild confidence and re-inflate the economy. They have made up a lot of ground. The flash crash almost did them in as did the BP oil leak. But the riots in Greece and Ireland actually helped shore up the dollar. But gas prices have steadily increased - first a leak then a gusher. (Pardon the pun.)
Many people I spoke to last fall said they expected the negative effects of increased healthcare costs due to Obamacare to wear off after the first of the year and companies would start hiring. We are 2 full months into the year and it ain't happenin. We have reached the tipping point caused by unrest in the Middle East and gas prices.
I don't think they/we can weather this storm.
Nifty has HIT MASSIVE RESISTANCE:
http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2011/03/nifty-fibo-resistance.html
Those bridge abutments are a bitch.