yesterday on the status of our educational system. This was more of a
rant than a speech. I’ve not seen Bill so worked up before. He might
even have been a bit over the top with this comment on our educational
system:
"The
guys at Enron never would have done this! I mean this is so blatant, so
extreme that, is anybody paying attention to what these guys do?"
I suppose it is a good thing when a guy like Gates gets involved in
matters of public policy. He’s spending his own money. He has no axe to
grind. But nothing is as clear as it appears. It’s not at all certain to
me that Big Bucks Bill is on the right track.
Central to Gates’ educational agenda is his belief that American schools
do not turn out enough scientists. That we will inevitably fall behind
places like China or India as they have more scientists than we do. Bill
believes that we should redouble our efforts to improve math and
science education. If we do that our future as the global leader in
science and technology is assured.
Actually that is not true at all. The acute problem we face is that there are too many scientists. This (long) article by Beryl Lieff Benderly tells a much different story than Mr. Gates. I few quotes from the piece:
It is not, as many believe, that the nation is producing too few scientists, but, paradoxically, just the opposite.
“There is no scientist shortage,” declares Harvard economics professor Richard Freeman.
Michael Teitelbaum of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, cites the “profound irony” of crying shortage — as have many business leaders, including Microsoft founder Bill Gates — while scores of thousands of young Ph.D.s labor in the nation’s university labs as low-paid, temporary workers, ostensibly training for permanent faculty positions that will never exist.
I loved these words by Susan Gerbi, Chair of molecular biology at Brown University. This lady is on the top of the heap of scientists in America:
"Obviously, the “pyramid paradigm can’t continue forever,” Like any Ponzi scheme, she fears, this one will collapse when it runs out of suckers
— a stage that appears to be approaching. There has been relatively
little attention given to possible solutions for the scientist glut — in
no small part because the scientific establishment has been busy
promoting the idea that the U.S. has a shortage of science students."
So are we creating a Ponzi scheme of scientists? Or are we critically
short of scientists? I don’t really know. The evidence is pretty clear
that there is a very big glut today. And there is every indication the
glut will get bigger. These folks better find something “Big” to do. I
see no new “cutting edge technology” that is going to suck up the supply
of the underemployed scientists. We’ve already invented all the “good”
stuff. Inventing more stuff that extends lives is really not all that
helpful at this point.
Exactly. Gates is right, but in trying to make the argument so that the dumbest of the dumb (congress) can understand it, he is using a simple but incorrect statement. We don't need more scientists (profession), engineers (profession), etc.
We absolutely need better math and science skills, though. We need inventors and innovators.
+100. You nailed it. He falsely conflates the need for scientists with the need for better math/science skills.
A very good friend of mine heads recruiting for a major division of the NIH. There is no shortage. Every decent job has loads of applicants, including US natives.
Pay among post-Docs is piss poor and most are in misery. Thsi soesn't sound like a shortage to me.
our performance scores certainly suck compared with the rest of the world.
What did you expect? Govt workers are teaching our children!
um, government workers are teaching their children too, dumbass
Not OUR government workers :D
Nothing new here Bruce. For as long as I can remember the large corporations have been crying wolf about shortages of engineers, scientists and technicians. This "shortage" is then used as a ploy to drive college enrollments and influence Congress to increase visas for these specialties. Greater supply = lower average wages.
(Evil genius) ^2
I think the take away here is the math and science proficiency is a load bearing stuctural member in our country/empire.
It doesn't take too much critical thinking to understand what happens when the structural member is lost.
Don't bash the PhD too much. They are an interesting lot though. For that matter, don't bash the carpenter, the farmer, the machinist and the journalist. This is a team sport.
Spot on. If you know anyone that actually started a company in biotech (or any field really) they will tell that they have to do a bit of machining, plumbing, and carpentry on occasion.
Actually my takeaway was that -
A) The research and investment climate (which is ultimately determined by the government) makes it difficult for new scientists to apply themselves and be productive.
B) The majority of that scientist glut is represented by foreign born students who will likely move abroad to do their work if point A isn't fixed
So basically we have low-end immigrants sapping our welfare system and high-end immigrants temporarily taking advantage of our still robust higher educational system which we foolishly shun for the easy life.
Yeah, we have a glut of smarties in this country, that's it.
Bullshit on point A. I am hiring and know of two other biotech companies doing the same.
Are we building another tech bubble, well maybe, but you can't have you cake and eat it too. Make up your mind, do you want the government to fund innovation or the private sector?
I would prefer that the Govt stick to their knitting and do only those things permitted by the US Constitution!
"If Congress can employ money indefinitely to the general welfare, and are
the sole and supreme judges of the general welfare, they may take the care of religion into their own hands; they may appoint teachers in every State, county and parish and pay them out of their public treasury; they may take into their own hands the education of children, establishing in like manner schools throughout the Union; they may assume the provision of the poor; they may undertake the regulation of all roads other than post-roads; in short, every thing, from the highest object of state legislation down to the most minute object of police, would be thrown under the power of Congress... Were the power of Congress to be established in the latitude contended for, it would subvert the very foundations, and transmute the very nature of the limited Government established by the people of America." - James Madison
And so, here we are!
The 20th century bubble makes that an entrenched entity. Too big to reduce without collapse.
The coming cuts will weigh on the payroll 2012 or so. The big gov layoffs are happening currently in Tx. and things are good here.
RE: point A - That's great to hear (really) but supply could still be outstripping demand.
Having the insitutional wherewithall to turn out a lot of scientists is the hard part. Creating an environment that makes it easier and incentivizes them to do stuff (so they don't get discouraged and/or leave the country) should be the easy part.
I mean, what's the plan here? -to have S. American peasants do all our dirty work and Asians and Indians do all the high-end specialty jobs that are too much of a hassle for the rest of us? I don't blame these people for applying themselves in these fields but it's a pathetic portrait of the rest of America.
Anyway, we should be more worried about our glut of undereducated lazy people living entitlement lifestyles, not scientists.
How about this plan: reduce the burden the rentier class have placed on working Americans, so that the Americans get cheaper to hire compared to foreigners? Then maybe we can make goods for domestic consumption here, instead of making them abroad.
Solution? Downsize government. Reduce taxes. Allow home prices to clear at market prices, so rents can decrease. End the Fed.
As a scientist who knows how to apply knowledge, I agree with the "free for all" solution. My family and I will survive just fine. No regulation or government of any kind. Would certainly solve my hazardous waste disposal problems.
It's good to know that you are the type who would pollute for profit. How about we use the Justice system to sue you, your family, and your company out of business. See, the Constitution has already accounted for such things as this without the creation of this overburdening bureaucracy.
There is a big difference between downsizing the government and your "free-for-all" interpretation. Still, now we know to keep an eye on you.
Look up what sarcasm means moron. Gee, I didn't know the "right to sue" was in the constitution. What's that? It isn't?
You missed the sarcasm in his comment.
Anyone ever tell you that you were a pretty sharp guy?
How do you think I know when someone is lying? Always better to be underestimated.
When you import 50,000 college graduates from all over the world per year sure you won't have a shortage, maybe what B.G. means there an not enough American bread scientists
Of course it wouldn't be politicaly correct of him to say this
"American bread scientists" ??
Where would such scientists find work? Sara Lee? Pillsbury? Flipping pancakes at IHOP?
Obviously you are an American sour-bread scientist. ;-)
DOUGH!!
This argument is made in the article. But the facts point in a different direction. There is too many US born scientists. At least that is the case today.
Those that come here to get an education are adding to the problem. But they are not THE problem.
Bruce,
+100
"Science" is a single word that is being used incorrectly to group together a lot of factors that can't productively be grouped. Making progress in science or engineering or architecture or medicine must be FACT based in order to be valuable. Salesmen, politicians, group leaders, corporate heads, actors, entertainers and (I have come to fear) economists deal with the inexact practice of catching the interest of, and engaging the people around them.
Anyone that wants to deal productivly with science issues needs to put a logical brick wall between these two kinds of mental activities. It doesn't mean that the same person can't do both but personal disipline is required.
And there is a "nasty" word; "DISIPLINE". People who actually commit to science education can expect to be able to use their education (assuming readily available extra training) for the rest of their working lives. I am 75 and the only things that limits me are hearing impairment, certain physical issues and energy.
But, in a now very old quote from a Chem. E. News publication:
"Chemical Engineering is kinda like Malaria. Once you get a case, you can fully really get rid of it."
And, I agree that foreign born people are not the problem. Once in a discussion of work in the lab, a friend from India, (PhD), noted that the Americans were much more creative in being able to do the physical experimental work that he was. He said that in his growing up he was not allowed to do any work in the house or around the house. They had an indoor "untouchable" and an outdoor "untouchable". The children were required to study. "Only study."
There is an oversupply not just of scientists, but of all graduates. There's a glut in education, because government has subsidized it with easy credit (student loans).
and rising "prices" in college "education" also due to the subsidy. Continued attempt in the CA Jr. College system to grow the student body. Here in MA, continued attempts to permit illegal immigrants to receive 'in-state' tuition rates. Various tricks to get there.
- Ned
And pell grants, no legitimate trade schools and no jobs. College is their second kindergarten--papa can pay with his home equity and stock market gains.
A very astute observation.
I must admit that I am more than a bit exhausted by the ongoing assumption that because a person is wealthy they are also intelligent.
a net worth does not translate to an IQ.
No shortage of scientists, just ones that think critically. Pretty much a similar story across the board in all fields of study, especially economics. Hey, at least Science is based on real Laws, like gravity, thermodynamics, etc.
Yeah! We're all waiting for a "light sabre"/iPhone
I pitch a bet that if cold fusion tech is possible. It will result from some lone or small group of people who worked their brains to the limits in someone's Garage or Basement.
Too many PHds in USA because, the scientists in China and India work for $18000 per year with few benefits. Why pay someone 5 to 10 times what they are worth in the world market???
Careful, I have hired both and you do get what you pay for.
But there is a major shortage of scientific and mathematical education with logic and critical thinking about everything, at the general public school level. Hence the willingness of the public to believe in vaccines causing autism, perpetual motion via the electric car, etc.
There's a shortage of jobs, and a willingness on the part of the population to be flexible in their employment choices. Lots of long-term unemployed not willing to work the low-pay service sector stuff. I get it, they're shit jobs and it's shit work. But that's what our economy is producing, from a jobs standpoint. It's not like an influx of manufacturing work is going to improve the situation either. We're still going to have a large army of young-to-middle aged males that have no fucking idea how to "make a widget", nor have any willingness whatsoever to "make a widget".
Cognitive dissonance is about to get pretty fucking extreme in short order.
+1
There is for sure no shortages of lawyers, doctors, engineers and scientists, but the number of people able to genuinely think outside the box is in shortage.
Not too many at the top want that many others who genuinely 'think outside the box' either - they're far too good at seeing through their bullshit.
You mean like, when the little woman drives the car home without stopping to look around the car that is rapidly developing a steering problem, vibration and thump...thump....thump. Or stopping at an early sign of trouble to make an observation that a front tire is about flat and.... "Gee, if I keep going I'll shread the tire and have to buy a new one. I better put on the spare and get the flat one fixed".
Is that what you mean about thinking?????
Exactly right. What has really been gutted over the years has been the humanities -- on the basis that they are not science and so are not "productive". While it is true that a historian doesn't build anything, you need one or two around to give some guidance and perspective for the people who are building.
There's another force at work too: the giant sucking sound as the financial sector draws in all the best minds with promises of easy money and big bonuses. Half the people getting MBAs are engineers, in a day and age were infrastructure is crumbling, systems are breaking down, innovation is not what it once was, and we could use some good engineering to get out of the rut we're in. But, speaking to these young people, they don't see a point in going to work in their field, because they would be stuck in a sweatshop working on someone else's project. If they're going to be doing that, might as well be onWall St.
Ding Ding Ding...
"people able to genuinely think outside the box is in shortage. "
Spot on! +1
"We’ve already invented all the “good” stuff."
Pure bull shit!
exactly..famous last words
4 years after kittyhawk, scientists still argued flight was impossible
If a way to access intergalactic space can be had cheaply, there is indeed room for more 'good stuff'.
A better machine gun- vacuum cleaner- synthetic copper is probably not in the cards.
Agreed. There are plenty of scientists, engineers, etc. But there are not enough cheap ones.
I'm afraid that I have to say Bruce has missed connecting the dots here. Whenever Gates complains about not graduating enough in a particular field, what he means is that there aren't enough cheap people in that field.
I.e. Gates is just preparing to lobby for more H1-B's. He has absolutely no concern about Americans or Public Education whatsoever. All he wants is to be able to bring in the cheapest labor possible, at the expense of America.
What we need to do is to increase his taxes to help pay for all of the damage that he's cost us.
Actually, there are plenty of cheap ones -- in China, India, Russia and Eastern Europe -- and Gates is doing everything he can to shift his operations to those locations. What's more interesting is a comment that the head of HR at Google made some time ago: namely, that what they wanted most was that one extraordinarily gifted individual capable of making the kind of brilliant intuitive leaps that eliminate the need for hundreds (or thousands) of lines of code all at once. For some insight into how such individuals are identified and nurtured, pick up a copy "Perfect Rigor," the story of how Grigori Perelman solved the Poincare conjecture. The first thing you'll realize is that this kind intellectual development has nothing at all to do with what goes in the American public school system.
Sure there are plenty elsewhere. But if it was so desireable, they wouldn't be spending a huge amount of effort to bring the cheap ones over here. Location is critical, as anyone in the business knows. It's a real pain having to manage remote groups.
There's also the lack of talent there. The "extraordinary individual" meme is just BS. H1-B's are all about cheap wages and not talent. All you have to do is to look at what passes for talent from these guys, and this becomes obvious.
The other proof of this is the simple fact that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce absolutely doesn't want to have these guys compete based upon talent. If there was even a shred of truth to what you're saying, then they'd be quite open to having a limited pool with the price of the visa based upon an auction.
But no, they don't want to pay for the price of talent. They just want cheap bodies without brains. Low cost, sweatshop labor which doesn't complain. And that is the entire history of the H1-B program.
Let Bill Gates go offshore. I have no problem with that. As soon as Ballmer moves to India, your argument can be taken seriously.