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Gauging the Risks of Recession
- Algorithmic Trading
- Bear Market
- Central Banks
- David Rosenberg
- Double Dip
- Dow Jones Industrial Average
- Enron
- European Central Bank
- Eurozone
- Fail
- Gluskin Sheff
- Gross Domestic Product
- High Frequency Trading
- High Frequency Trading
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Mexico
- New York Stock Exchange
- North Korea
- Prop Trading
- Quantitative Easing
- Recession
- recovery
- Rosenberg
- Sovereign Debt
- Unemployment
- Volatility
- Wall Street Journal
- WorldCom
Advisor
Perspectives published John Mauldin's latest weekly comment, Risk
of Recession. It's an absolute must read, and I highly suggest you
read it all, but I will focus in on the following:
Jonathan Tepper (coauthor of the next book I am working
on) sent me this piece from a group called EMphase Finance, based in Montreal.
They wrote this back in April, as the Weekly LEI was beginning to turn
over. They have found a bit of data that seems very good at
predicting the economy of the US 12 months out. Let's take part of
their work:"Many market
participants are debating whether or not a double-dip recession will
occur within the next quarters. As we are writing our report, ECRI
Weekly LEI fell quickly to 122.5 points from 134.7 in April. This
indicator did a good job leading U.S. Real GDP Y/Y by 6 months over
the last two decades. However, ECRI Weekly LEI recently became quite
unreliable as it increased up to 25% Y/Y in April, a level consistent
with an unrealistic 8% U.S. Real GDP Y/Y! You can notice the problem
on the left chart below.
"We discovered a new leading indicator to forecast U.S.
Real GDP Y/Y, and it is simply the U.S. Terms of Trade (TOT). It is
defined as the export price / import price ratio. We are pleased to be
the first to document this, at least publicly. On the right chart
above, TOT leads U.S. Real GDP Y/Y by 12 months. The only drawback:
underlying time series are monthly instead of weekly, but this is not
really an issue with that much lead. Also, the relationship still
holds well if we extend to the maximum data (1985)."
Their
conclusion?
"As
you probably noticed earlier, TOT is suggesting a decline of U.S. Real
GDP Y/Y to nearly 0% within the next 12 months. Q2 2010 Real GDP Q/Q
Annualized to be released on the 30th July may match expectations as
it reflects data of the last three months, which were positive in
general. However, we are most likely going to see weaker numbers in
the next quarters. Will this lead to a double-dip recession? We
believe the odds of a double-dip recession within the next 9-12 months
are minimal, but odds may increase to 50-50 in 2011, depending on the
evolution of variables we follow in the upcoming months."
And
while we are on leading indicators, let's end with this note from good
friend and data maven David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff (based in
Toronto).
"For the week ending June 11th, the
ECRI leading index (growth rate) slipped for the sixth week in a row,
to -5.7% from -3.7%. Only once in the past – in 1987, but the Fed
could cut rates then – did this fail to signal a recession. But a -5.7%
print accurately signaled a recession in the lead-up to all of the
past seven downturns.
"The consensus is looking at 3% real
GDP growth for the second half of the year, but as Chart 2 (above)
suggests, the two quarters following a move in the ECRI to a -5% to
-10% range is +0.8% at an annual rate on average. So right now the
choice is really either a 2002-style growth relapse or an outright
double-dip recession – pick your poison."
I suggest you all read Emphase Finance's June 2010
letter. Francois Soto writes well, reviewing many leading economic
indicators. I am glad John mentioned his firm in
his weekly letter giving me chance to discover and promote new talent
in Montreal's finance circle.
Another Montreal firm John
mentioned was Bank Credit Analyst (BCA
Research). BCA is where I
got my hands dirty and really learned about markets and macroeconomics.
I miss those Friday afternoon meetings where someone presented market
research and each Managing Editor talked about the risks they saw in the
areas they covered.
Eric Lam of the Financial Post reports that
Chen Zhao of BCA Research thinks a double-dip
recession is unlikely and European worries are overblown:
U.S.
economic data has recently taken a turn for the worse, while the
sovereign debt contagion continues to spread in Europe, leading many to
mouth the two words nobody wants to hear: Double Dip.
Chen Zhao
with independent research firm BCA Research, said while there are
continuing concerns weighing on global markets, the world will bend but
not break.
“The odds of a double-dip recession are low and as
long as there is no renewed economic contraction, equity prices should
grind higher over time,” he said in a report.
Efforts by
central banks, especially in the United States and Sweden, to expand
their balance sheet by taking on equity have worked to stabilize
banking sector problems and deflationary tendencies.
“Therefore,
the ECB’s recent move to beef up quantitative easing and its
reassurance that it will buy sovereign debt and even private credit
should be viewed very positively,”Mr. Chen said. “This action has
greatly reduced the risk of a major policy blunder and therefore lends
support to risky assets over time.”
Of
course, there is still a real risk of double-dipping in Europe, but
Mr. Chen said the eurozone economy has been “rather moribund for years”
and is so marginalized its contribution to global growth has become
minimal.
For example, when the Japanese economy collapsed in the
early 1990s, many expected a chain reaction sending the rest of the
world into a death spiral.Instead, the rest of the world went
into a sustained boom.
“What the experience suggests is that the
cross influences of various economic forces are always intertwined and
that they are difficult to disentangle and assess at the time,” Mr.
Chen said. “Netting it all out, it seems maintaining a positive bias is
a reasonable posture as far as investment strategy is concerned.”
Besides,
people start talking about a double dip at some point after every
recession, and there is no reason why this recession is any different,
he said.
I agree with Chen. My contacts at
pension funds, economics departments, and at hedge funds all tell me the
likelihood of a double-dip recession is low. In fact, some see the US
economy picking up again in 2011 after growth rates come down in the
second half of this year/ early next year.
It's too early to tell
but one thing is for sure, E.S Browning of the WSJ is right when
reported that rapid
declines in stocks have rattled even optimists:
A
look at history confirms something many investors had felt about the
market's recent turmoil: It is the speed of the declines, even more
than the size, that has been most shocking.
The Dow Jones Industrial
Average fell 12.4% in just 42 days from the peak on April 26 through
June 7. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 13.7% in 45 days
from its peak.
The only other time in
80 years that the Dow has fallen that far, that fast so early in an
economic rebound was in 1950, when North Korea invaded South Korea to
start the Korean War. Then, the Dow fell 13.6% in 31 days from peak to
trough, according to a study done for The Wall Street Journal by Ned
Davis Research. Stocks recovered in 1950 and remained in a bull market
for another decade.
This spring, the stock decline has
been blamed on things like fears of spreading debt woes in Europe and
the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, severe problems but somehow less
bone-chilling than a Communist invasion. The fact that the market has
proved so fragile has made even some optimistic analysts wonder whether
the troubles might be deeper than people had believed.
"This
correction has had more legs than we thought," says Tim Hayes, Ned
Davis's chief investment strategist.
At the end of last week,
stocks did rally. Mr. Hayes says the many indicators he tracks tell him
the recent downdraft is probably a nasty interlude to be followed by
more gains. Still, the market's vulnerability has left him with doubts.
"We
could actually be in a bear market now," he acknowledges. If so,
stocks would resume their declines and, by the most common definition,
the Dow would continue down to at least 20% from the April high.
Before
the April swoon, the Dow had been up 71% from its low on March 9,
2009, one of the fastest rallies of that size in market history.
To see how the recent declines stack up with
past ones, Ned Davis Research looked at all pullbacks of 10% or more
during periods when the economy was in the first 18 months of recovery
from recession, as it is now. Normally, that is a strong period for
stocks: The study found that rapid declines are rare in such a period
and tend to be associated with unsettling world events.
In 1955,
the Dow fell 10% in 18 days—a smaller decline than today's, but a sharp
one. It came at the time of President Dwight Eisenhower's heart
attack, which shocked the country. To find a similarly large decline in
a short period, one has to go back to 1928, when the inflated stock
market wavered less than a year before the 1929 crash.
It isn't
common for stocks to go into a bear market so soon after an economic
recovery has begun, but it isn't unprecedented. It happened in 1962, at
the end of the long 1950s bull market. In 2002, stocks fell more than
31%, during the Enron and WorldCom scandals. That was another period
when stocks rallied after a long bear market and then hit trouble, a
double dip that shattered investors' confidence. In 2002, the rally ran
out of steam and the bear market resumed, although the rally in
2001-2002 wasn't nearly as long or as large as the one the market has
just experienced. Much like 2002, the recent decline has also alarmed
many individual investors who had only just begun to regain their
appetite for stocks.
Stocks also went into bear markets in the
early phases of economic recoveries in the 1930s and 1940s, a period of
economic and international unrest.
Some
analysts compare the current pullback with a 15.6% correction that
began late in 1983. That one came at the beginning of a long period of
stock strength that ran from 1982 through 2000, and turned out to be no
more than a painful blip. The difference is that the 1983-1984
correction happened slowly, over eight months.
Some say that electronic trading may be playing a part this
time by contributing to exceptional volatility, because hundreds of
millions of shares can change hands in minutes. Once, it was highly
unusual for 90% of stocks to be up or down on any single day. In recent
years, as computers have come to dominate trading, it has become much
more common.
Bespoke Investment Group did a study looking at all
declines of 10% or more in the S&P 500 since 1927. Those include 40
cases in which the S&P 500 fell as much as, or more than, its
recent 13.7% decline.
In 25 cases, the majority, stocks continued
down and wound up in a bear market, meaning a decline of 20% or more.
But there was still a significant minority of cases, 15, in which the
declines stopped short of a bear market.
"This correction has
happened very fast compared to most corrections," says Justin Walters,
Bespoke's co-founder.
The deeper a
decline gets, the higher the odds it will become a bear market. Like
Mr. Hayes, Mr. Walters says he expects stocks to avoid a bear market
this time. But if stocks turn down again and "we hit a new low, the
odds are really high that we will go into a bear market, based on the
historical numbers," he says.
One reason that analysts such as
Mr. Walters and Mr. Hayes expect stocks to recover is that they were
looking particularly strong shortly before the April declines.
Almost 30% of stocks on the New York Stock
Exchange hit new highs in March, the most since 2003, Mr. Hayes says.
The market turned down just one week after the percentage of new highs
peaked in mid-April.
It is rare for stocks to go from such broad
strength directly into a bear market. It usually takes indexes weeks to
begin a decline after individual stocks begin fading. The only time a
bear-market decline began a week after a peak in new highs was in March
2002, and many analysts consider that downturn the continuation of an
old bear marketrather than the start of a new one.
Bearish analysts worry that the market's
recent weakness is a sign that the world's debt and unemployment
problems may be too severe to keep the stock market moving higher. But
Richard Sylla, professor of economics and financial history at New York
University's Stern School of Business, says he feels optimistic about
the market.
His research shows that horrible decades like the
past one tend to be followed by better periods for stocks. It is normal
for stocks to rally when unemployment is high, before the economy is
fully back on its feet, he says. He says corporations have cut their
debt and improved cash positions and profits.
Prof. Sylla says he
put some of his personal savings back into stocks early this month. He
didn't put all his cash to work, however, and says he would consider
buying more stocks if prices fall more. Although it could take more
time, he says, he thinks better days are ahead for stocks."After 10 bad
years, I think the next 10 years will look pretty good," he says.
When
it comes to understanding stock market swings, I love reading Tim Hayes
of Ned
Davis Research, one of the best strategists in the industry. Just
like BCA, the whole team at NDR is excellent and they provide top-notch
research to their institutional clients.
My personal feeling is
that the dominance of high frequency trading (HFT) platforms at prop
trading desks of large banks and large hedge funds are behind the rapid
declines in stocks we have witnessed.
Finally, take the time to
read Ciovacco Capital Management's latest essay, Market
Corrections and Economic Cycles. Mr. Ciovacco concludes
- The markets are
currently weak and need to be monitored closely.
- Even in the context of an ongoing bull market,
further weakness in stocks is possible, especially over the next
two-to-twelve weeks.
- History says patience remains
important since the odds continue to favor gains in risk assets over
the next three-to-twelve monthsDecisions in the next
two-to-twelve weeks will most likely be very important relative to full
year 2010 performance. As long as the odds favor positive outcomes
over the longer-term, we will make an effort ride out any future
volatility. If the odds shift in a bearish manner, we will make
principal protection a higher priority.
I
still think that we are likely going to experience a low volume summer
melt-up in stocks. I am looking for oil prices to head higher, mainly
because of geopolitical risks, but I also think algorithmic trading will
pick-up and you're going to see some very jerky markets this summer.
I
am more confident that the US economic recovery will proceed unabated,
albeit at a slower pace than the last ten months. Keep watching those
employment reports at the beginning of the month because any sign of a
recovery there will bolster confidence in stocks and the real economy.
»
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Pure drivel... todays credit crisis is in no way related to North Korea invading the South in the 1950s. We have an economy which is unworkable due to tax and regulation coupled with insolvent federal government, state governments, and private citizens.
Several weeks ago John Mauldin noted that this:
http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html
predicts a contraction in GDP.
Leo's almost as good a contrarian indicator as the squid.
"risk of a recession indeed" lmao. ..just keep your head in the sand and your arse in the air Leo, and keep chanting the mantra..
Keep dogging me, at least I have the guts to make calls!
Leo, you are the Dennis Kneal of Zero Hedge. And yes, Dennis "makes calls", so I guess he has guts too. LOL
I like to think of Leo as the Jon Nadler ("Gold is not in a bull market!") or as the Baghdad Bob ("The enemy is committing suicide at the city gates!") of ZeroHedge, but your analogy works too.
But apparently not the guts to reply to the numerous challenges to and rebuttals of your egregiously shallow, utterly mainstream, pro-establishment calls.
Give it up, Leo ---- just give it up.
One thing you have to know about me is I never give up. I'm a fighter, someone who can claw back from nothing. You on the other hand, are just an anoymous flea who offers nothing in the form of cogent arguments supporting your "sky is falling" scenario. Keep up the insults, that's all you are good for.
And that is exactly from whence you need to claw, should you ever decide to actually begin doing so --- and nothing, incidentally, also happens to be precisely what you offer this forum.
I will freely admit, and have done so on a number of occasions, that I am not knowlegeable enough about the markets or the economy to present a meaningful article or lengthy post regarding them --- but at least I am honest enough to recognize and admit it, and honest enough to defend and discuss my comments in which I may have something meaningful to say, instead of engaging in hit-and-run guerilla commentary with a strong and consistent pro-establishment bias.
By the way, if you REALLY want to make analogies to fleas and other disease-spreading, potentially lethal bloodsucking parasites, we can always talk about central banking and central bankers .......
Akak, admitting you are not that bright is not news to many here.
Layoff the personal attacks when you clearly admit your intellect compares favourably with a 2x4. Many here do not like the mindless personal attacks that pass as normal personal discourse with your tribe.
Liar. I only admitted that I was not knowledgeable enough to post a headline article here. Are you?
And you've been nothing but an arrogant and annoying prick in every one of your posts so far, asshole. I don't see you posting any lengthy and meaningful comments or insightful analysis here, just snarky attacks on others. Fuck you too.
Comments from the "tribe of one".
Have a nice day.
"I agree with Chen. My contacts at pension funds, economics departments, and at hedge funds all tell me the likelihood of a double-dip recession is low. In fact, some see the US economy picking up again in 2011 after growth rates come down in the second half of this year/ early next year."
Once again, Leo, these contacts are simply wrong and you take their advice at your peril. The chart showing postwar corrections is inapposite - this is a balance sheet recession. The double dip will be in the news in the first quarter of 2011, but will be apparent to all by the end of this summer.
I don't know what else to say to get rid of all of this "growth will resume shortly" nonsense. Name the industry that will be the driver of the incredible number of jobs US needs to rebound. Identify how the various state black hole budgets (with their pension obligations) will find funding. It's just not there, and without massive restructuring it is simply extend, pretend, hopium, and listen to brain-addled economists.
You get points if you say that Bennie will print to fill those holes, but the repercussions of massive QE 2 will not be pretty. We got nothing for round 1, and 2 will tip the scales the other way.
when are forecasters wrong?
when the variables they use to predict the future are not the relevant ones and, because the forecasters don't know how to incorporate new data into their models, they are blind and then claim no one could have predicted whatever happens.
Well, materially higher and persistant unemployment, sovereign debt increasing at accelerating rates, state and local governments without a chance to balance budgets and maintain debt service along with full employment, massive new spending by the federal government is only being maintained by a government printing press run amok.
Nowhere is THAT included in any models Leo decides to put forth!
Instead, the blinkered view ignores all these variables.
LOL.
Just wait till folks decide they want to hold fiat currency instead of equity share certificates.
I wonder what the conversion rate to dollars (as a percentage of the last traded price) will actually be.
The stock market is more overvalued than real estate was.
There is no recovery. The Depression is proceeding unabated.
I am sympathetic to the case for a 2H slowdown. However, I too often fall victim to confirmation bias, so I look for the data points that run counter to my outlook.
Here is what I am seeing on the ground in Asia -- in the electronics supply chain: sold out capacity everywhere. And unlike 2008, the supply chain is cautious. No one wants to get caught flat-footed like they were then. That means the common refrain is "we are booked to capacity, we see strong demand in 2H, but we are sufficiently cautious that we will only slowly add capacity to our operations (if at all)." That is not the recipe for a bust.
There may well be a slowdown in growth, but it is not happening in technology until Q4 at the earliest.
I hear you - segments like the adult toymakers are still producing. But that does not produce jobs in America, unless you count clerks at Best Buy earning minimum wage as meaningful employment.
No jobs, no consumers. No consumers, take an axe to 75% of the US economy. Cut off unemployment benefits, and watch the stimulus pull back. If you want a chart that tells you where we are, put up one that has the usage of food stamps on it. Simple, folks.
Risk of recession? Pretty high. Could've saved you a few hours there minus your charts.
One of those "Doh!" moments, eh Homer? Like those funded, scientific, university studies which show that rich folks are happier than poor folks. We coulda told 'em that for 50 cents, and I'm sure I could muster some snappy charts to prove it.
Thanks, Leo. I like a good fiction now and then to break up the economic monotony.
Yes, almost as good fiction as the statistics provided by the BLS that Leo loves to regard as the economic gospel truth, which are on the other hand recognized by those with their eyes open and three functioning neurons as little more than fairy tales spun by the likes of Bernanke and Geithner.
You guys kill me...this isn't 2008. Stop living in the past and start looking ahead. If you keep waiting for the sky to fall, you'll miss some great opportunities. Ah what the hell, keep shorting away, especially you akaka..lol!
Leo,
One could easily argue that structurally speaking the US is worse off than in 2008. The bad loans that got us in this mess are, for the most part, still there. Have we experienced some residential foreclosures? Yes, but there is just plainly too much trash left in the garbage can. It doesn't have to be completely empty, but it has a lot to go.
The US must find a "sound" engine of growth, real growth, not debt driven growth. Growth that occurs due to Americans producing something that solves an ongoing problem. The whole "Green" approach could in fact evolve into just that, but NOT under the architecture of Obama, Gore and all the other Green Crooks. Remember, there has to be a believable and definable benifit to the consumer.
You can say what you want about the construction business, but one thing you can't argue is the fact that a construction project produces a greater chain of money and wealth than most industries. This wealth generating machine is broken and won't be fixed anytime soon and there is nothing to replace it.
So for many, Leo, there actually won't be a double dip recession, because they never have left the first recession you MORON.
"Stop living in the past and start looking ahead." Minus 2 trillion Obamabucks the past couple years and you wouldn't be posting here today how great tomorrow is. Sorry - but you drive in the the dark first without your headlights. There's a reason why we're watching you and not following - kind of like how retail investors aren't following SKYNET and HAL9K into the stock market.
Leo this is not about Shorting, this about a system collapse and it matters not if the last two computers in the market are driving the index higher when "Hell in Handbasket has Arrived".
Once again Leo, that is not daylight you are seeing ahead in the tunnel.
The Sky is falling and it has Corexit is just an appetizer, you are still missing the big picture. You are not providing any meaningful discourse at this point in your misleading rants.
Now is the time for caution and pulling in your horns!
Yes we can't!
"I agree with Chen. My contacts at pension funds, economics departments, and at hedge funds all tell me the likelihood of a double-dip recession is low. In fact, some see the US economy picking up again in 2011 after growth rates come down in the second half of this year/ early next year."
But, these are the same "experts" that were thinking everything would just be fine in 2008. Econ departments, seriously? For 99% of them, if they had any actual talent in predicting anything they wouldn't be in econ departments. Pension funds are honestly just the fish at the table. Most hedge funds can only make money when the market is going up, that doesn't seem like they are truly hedging anything. You are better off asking Bernanke about gold.
We do agree that the market is going to melt-up higher. However, I don't think it will be for the reasons you mention.
You completely bypass the fact that artificial stimulus is the only thing keeping this "We're not in a recession/depression, pinky swear" act going. That is coming to an end before long.
The real answer for why things will continue "melting-up" is because they are getting ready to shift this ponz into 3rd gear by 2011 (4th gear, I'm guessing, will be the actual printing of money or large-scale war). The Fed already said it is comfortable with a balance sheet of close to $10T. That will be the first point at which they may pause to wonder WWJD.
We are getting to the end of the 2nd act. Brief intermission before you need to grab your seat for the awesome conclusion.
Zactly - true dat.
Once again LK adds to my assurance that the US market is heading for lower lows. The social mood swing in Canada has been up and is peaking at a somewhat trailing time compared to the US, but with Vancouver real estate now more expensive than Manhattan condos, there is no doubt that Canada is also in a for a complete financial collapse, made worse because hardly none of the mapleannas north of the border (save Rosenberg) are prepared for it.
Keet it up Leo! Your blind faith lubricates the slope of hope that the US and soon Canadian markets are slipping away on...
Leo,
I generally read your articles and try to respect your point of view. However, this is cherry picking of data from those who INMO created this mess and cannot be counted on as credible to predict what will happen in the future. I believe they are talking their book. And any comments from government agencies or their pundits looks more like; Lies, Damn Lies and Government statistics.
We are already in the midst of a depression that will worsen until all losses are washed out of the system or forgiven.
All I want is the truth no matter how bad it is....Americans were once that way!
God Bless
"All I want is the truth no matter how bad it is....Americans were once that way!"
When exactly was that?
Well, just in case wishing it true really works I am going to give it a try.
Leading BS officials have relayed very honest opinions to me that after living on this earth for most of my 38 years as a SMALL B that I am to wake up soon as a FULL C. That will happen with absolutely no medical treatments or surgery. I simply live in America and the laws of nature will cease to apply to me. Yeah boobies!
Rubbing some lotion on them may help, some body parts can triple in size when rubbed properly (although it is a temporary effect). I think Leo & Co. like to massage certain numbers to make them look bigger, too.
Yes, I've heard of that product. Obama calls it Stimulus. Extremely expensive, with minuscule results and only temporary.
But it feels so good until it ends. Then you have to clean up the mess, and wait awhile before you can do it again.
400+ responses here: (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/13-million-americans-are-about-lose-the...). Leo's responses: 0.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presenting-key-h2-milestones-observe-ec... , Leo's responses: 0.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/first-great-depression-blow-blow-bis
Leo's responses: 0
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/focusing-crumbling-state-and-local-budgets
Leo's responses: 0
This is just me browsing the most recent ZH postings that contradict Leo's conclusions.
Leo: What annoys me is your passive-aggressive posting. How about responding to the articles posted by the owner of this site that are in complete disagreement with your conclusions.
Indeed.
I find Leo to be little more than an insecure and puerile vandal here on ZeroHedge, metaphorically spraypainting his shallow, intellectually insulting, pro-establishment obscenities and then fleeing from the scene to let others express their indignation and outrage while he laughs behind the bushes instead of accepting responsibility or standing behind his arrogantly flippant graffiti.
Attack the man's points. Don't call him names.
Fuck Alak, what a Nazi you are. Adhominem attacks indeed.
Well hello there, sockpuppet Leo!
Ditto....Great Points Nihilarian
"I am more confident that the US economic recovery will proceed unabated, albeit at a slower pace than the last ten months. Keep watching those employment reports at the beginning of the month because any sign of a recovery there will bolster confidence in stocks and the real economy.
Where are you living Leo? Please, be truthful as it is stretching the imagination to assert with flimsy government data (Stalin and Lenin would be proud of) that is weaker than a wet paper bag. Unabated? So 22% real unemployment, sovereign debt crisis worldwide, destruction of up to 45% of the seafood production for the US consumption as well as crop failures likely tied to Corexit and VOC's, US saber rattling against Iran as if we would like to open a 3rd front, bankrupt States.........I don't get it Leo, I mean are you really hanging your hat on a volume vacuum vacant rally supported by algo's and ppt advocates?
I am at a loss with you at this point....
Leo, Please be advised...... that is not sunlight at the end of this tunnel!
Buckle up with an extra chin strap, this ride will not have many survivors.
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This one is really too easy.
Odds of a Double-Dip Recession: 0% (but see below)
Odds of a deepening of the ongoing Depression: 100%
Leo's denial of reality while staring it straight in the face is, however, becoming both increasingly hysterical, and increasingly amusing. Rarely have I seen anyone take the motto "Ignorance is Strength" so fully to heart.