This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
GDP Misses Expectations, Comes At 2.4%, Plunges From Revised Q1 GDP Of 3.7%
Double dip confirmed as Q2 GDP plunges from revised Q1 number: GDP comes in at a below consensus 2.4%, which a huge drop from the revised Q1 number which came in at 3.7% (from 2.7%). The GDP Price index comes at 1.8%, the core PCE comes at 1.1%, from 0.7% previously. Per the revised GDP numbers, the US economy has now shrunk by 4.1% from Q4 2007 to Q2 2009, compared with the 3.7% previous estimate.
From the BEA:
The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in imports and a deceleration in private inventory investment that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in federal government spending.
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Full Summary:
08:30 07/30 US 2006-2009 CHAIN PRICE INDEX REV TO +2.0% (PREV +2.1%
08:30 07/30 US 2006-2009 GDP REV TO -0.2% (PREV FLAT); 4Q06/4Q09 NOW -0.1%
08:30 07/30 US BEA: 2007 KEY DOWNWARD REVISIONS: PCE, HIGHER IMPORTS, GOVT
08:30 07/30 US 2007 PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE REV TO +2.1% (PREV +1.7%)
08:30 07/30 US 2007 GDP CHAIN PRICE INDEX UNREVISED AT +2.9%
08:30 07/30 US 2007 GDP REV TO +1.9% (PREV +2.1%);4Q/4Q +2.3% (PREV +2.5%)
08:30 07/30 US BEA: 2008 KEY DOWNWARD REVISIONS: NONRES FIXED, INVENTORIES
08:30 07/30 US 2008 PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE REV TO +4.1% (PREV +2.7%)
08:30 07/30 US 2008 GDP CHAIN PRICE INDEX REV TO +2.2% (PREV +2.1%)
08:30 07/30 US 2008 GDP REV TO FLAT (PREV +0.4%);4Q/4Q -2.8% (PREV -1.9%)
08:30 07/30 US BEA: LARGEST QUARTERLY GDP DROP NOW 4Q08; 1Q09 REVISED UP
08:30 07/30 US 2009 SERVICES PCE REVISED DOWN TO -0.8% VS PREV +0.1%
08:30 07/30 US BEA: 2009 KEY DOWNWARD REVISIONS:PCE,GOVT,RESIDENTIAL FIXED
08:30 07/30 US 2009 CORP PROFITS WITH CCADJ -0.4% VS PREV -3.8%
08:30 07/30 US 4Q08 GDP REV TO -6.8% (PREV -5.4%);CHAIN INDEX -1.2%(+0.1%)
08:30 07/30 US 1Q09 GDP REV TO -4.9% (PREV -6.4%);CHAIN INDEX +1.1%(+1.9%)
08:30 07/30 US 2Q09 GDP UNREV AT -0.7%;CHAIN INDEX REV TO +0.3%(PREV FLAT)
08:30 07/30 US 3Q09 GDP REV TO +1.6% (PREV +2.2%);CHAIN INDEX +0.7%(+0.4%)
08:30 07/30 US 4Q09 GDP REV TO +5.0% (PREV +5.6%);CHAIN INX -0.2%(+0.5%)
08:30 07/30 US 2Q REAL DISP INC +4.4% V 1Q +1.7%;SVNG RATE +6.2% V +5.5%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV CORE CHN WT INDX FOR DOM PURCHASES +0.9% V 1Q +1.6%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV CHAIN WT INDEX FOR DOM PURCHASES +0.1% VS 1Q +2.1%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV NONDURABLES PCE +1.6% VS 1Q +4.2%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV DUR PCE +7.5% VS 1Q +8.8%; SVCS +0.8% V +0.1%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV GDP CHAIN PCE DEFLATOR +0.1% VS 1Q +2.1%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV CHAIN WT INDEX EX FOOD, ENERGY +1.0% VS 1Q +1.7%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV MKT-BASED PCE DEFLATOR -0.2% VS 1Q +1.7%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV MKT-BASED CORE PCE DEFLATOR +1.0% VS 1Q +0.7%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT +17.0% VS 1Q +7.8%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV EXPRT GAP -$425.9B(1Q -$338.4B);IMPRT+28.8%(+11.2%)
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT +27.9% VS 1Q -12.3%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV CHANGE IN PRIVATE INVENTORIES +$75.7B VS 1Q +$44.1B
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV PCE +1.6% VS 1Q +1.9%; GOVT +4.4% VS 1Q -1.6%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR +1.8% VS 1Q +1.1%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV GDP PCE DEFLATOR EX FOOD,ENERGY +1.1% VS +1.2%
08:30 07/30 US 2009 GDP CHAIN PRICE INDEX REV TO +0.9% (PREV +1.2%)
08:30 07/30 US Data: Employment Cost Index - Summary
08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP INDUS PROD. +1.2% VS APRIL +0.1%; +7.2% YR/YR
08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP WHOLESALE -1.8% VS APRIL +0.5%; +8.3% YR/YR
08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP RETAIL +0.3% VS APRIL -1.8%; +4.7% YR/YR
08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP MFCTRING +0.1% VS APRIL -0.3%; +8.6% YR/YR
08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP SERVICES -0.1% VS APRIL -0.1%; +2.7% YR/YR
08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP GOODS +0.6% VS APRIL +0.1%; +6.3% YR/YR
08:30 07/30 CANADA MAY GDP BASIC PRICES +0.1% VS APRIL -0.0%; +3.8% YR/YR
08:30 07/30 US 4Q07-2Q09 CONTRACTION PERIOD REV TO -2.8% SAAR (PREV -2.5)
08:30 07/30 US BLS: Q2 STATE/LOCAL COMP Y/Y AT +1.8% LOWEST ON RECORD('82)
08:30 07/30 US 2009 GDP REV TO -2.6% (PRV -2.4%);4Q/4Q +0.2% (PRV +0.1%)
08:30 07/30 US 2Q PRIV WAGES, SALARIES EX-INCENTIVE 2Q Y/Y +1.7%(1Q +1.4%)
08:30 07/30 US 1Q GDP REV TO +3.7% (PREV +2.7%);CHAIN INX +1.0%(+1.1%)
08:30 07/30 US 2Q WAGES,SALARIES +0.4% V 1Q +0.4%;2Q Y/Y +1.6%(1Q +1.5%)
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV CHAIN WEIGHT PRICE INDEX +1.8% VS 1Q +1.0%
08:30 07/30 US 2Q BENEFIT PAYMNTS +0.6% V 1Q +1.1%;2Q Y/Y +2.5%(1Q +2.2%)
08:30 07/30 US 2Q ADV GDP +2.4% V 1Q +3.7%;FINL SALES +1.3% (+1.1%)
08:30 07/30 US 2Q EMPL COST INDEX +0.5% V 1Q +0.6%;2Q Y/Y +1.8%(1Q+1.7%)
»
- 17511 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
What will the spin be this time, the excessive heat of June and July?
I think the spin will be, "But look at how much better Q1 was than what we thought, 3.7%, up from 2.7!!!".
What will be the Fed's spin...I could guess but screw em. Let me break you off with a big of what I'M spinning :D
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=D995657329C4795A
Happy Friday people!
"What will the spin be this time, the excessive heat of June and July?"
1. GDP was lower because May was only a 28 day month....
2. Heavy snow storms in June kept capital goods outlays lower...
3. The heavy snow also lowered retail sales over the big Mother's Day shopping weekend...
4. The home buyers tax credit saved GDP in the 2nd quarter and "Green Shoots" are visible thanks to the Obummer administration program...
Any questions?
Ben Bernanke: "My ass hurts."
Very important blog for webdesigners.I dont hav much idea about web designing but only I can appriciate your efforts.Thanks for sharing the info..thanks for this– you’re bookmarked...
telefonkatalogen.biz
govt spend +4.4% with the feds up ~10%
back it off and economy grew 1.4%
The real private sector economy didn't grow at all, consumer indexes, which has been mentioned many a time by me here and Eric Sprott as well is now showing a 3.5pc contraction in the real economy. The BEA figures are absolute BS and are totally disconnected from reality. Borrowing and spending by the Government is not the key to prosperity.
agree,, actually ex fed looks more like +0.7%. normalize the inventory boost and in the neg. Just using their numbers. QE a coming
Bullard of the Fed ready to open the flood gates
for printing money. Low rates didn't cut it.
A friend of mine was just hired by the Dept. of Navy after playing the fed's hiring game for nearly a year and hearing "we'll get back to you." Evidently there is a massive push to get federal job reqs filled before Sept. gets here, and risking that the reqs don't roll over to the new FY. They also supposedly sweetened the offer with a higher salary even after he had accepted the position. Only in government...
that is really odd, I heard the same thing a guy I know is going to the FAA and they are adamant he start before September, they wanted him there Aug 1 but settled for Aug 15 but would not keep the offer open if he waited till September.
"really odd".....my nephew, just back from Afghanistan, just got a job with a contractor doing work at the Pentagon.....had to start virtually immediately.
"Odd" indeed. Sounds like someone's trying to game the numbers as much as possible going into September.....
It could just be the government budget cycle at work. If you don't spend (or commit) current fiscal year money (the Fed fiscal year ends Sept 30) then the money goes away an d your next year's budget gets reduced.
Also check out the Q2:08 revision originally reported +3.5% or so down to 1.5% and after today a mere +0.6%, which inclided the $120B in rebates checks
Not only double dip confirmed, but a triple dip in the works!! Misery and poverty will be rampant, except for us smart shorts who are playing our cards right...
I surely hope so as I have been short sooooo long...... And, they say patience is a virtue, bullshit.
Normally I would also be in the triple-dip camp. But . . .
. . . this time it's different.
Yes, today we have those internets, and, what do those internets start with?
THAT'S RIGHT!!!!! DING-DING-DING!!
W W W
And that looks like a sextuple-dip to me!!!!
If there is a triple dip your shorts wont matter, firearms, force, and audacity will rule the day.
unless you have a private security force.
coming to a neighborhood near you, black bag ops for your posesions and food.
smart till the MARTIAL LAW is not there...after that theres no use of any money
Not only double dip confirmed, but a triple dip in the works!! Misery and poverty will be rampant, except for us smart shorts who are playing our cards right...
WTF? It is almost impossible to revise 1Q up by 1%.
What's worse, the economy decelerated by 1.3% QoQ, or that the first half is a net 1.3% real growth (2.5 annualized)?? Answer: They both suck.
It's pure propaganda Bruce, the real figures can be found here, for the REAL economy. Not the pseudo economic world that the Keynesian puppeteers live in, http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html, The US economy at present is contracting at a 3.5pc rate and it is getting worse. Why wait for estimates when one can have daily real time data.
Hmmm,
Same VK from TAE?
,
Yep.
Wonder how many others here also post over there . . .
Maybe even I + S under different names, ya think?
.
Anyways they'll revise it upward next week, quoting some obscure rule change.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
even LIESman was stunned by this; Santelli shut him up real good
Why so negative, Bruce? CNBC sees the silver lining..
WTF as well. How exactly do you come up with an extra 1% when by this time you're fine tuning your numbers, not making wholesale changes. Something stinks.
I suspect they goosed the first quarter number to enable people to think that second quarter will/might be revised up as well in the coming months. Soooooooo Q2 it's not as bad as it looks.
But it's all guessing until we hear what www.shadowstats.com has to say. I hope John Williams isn't snickering too much as he reads the report for the revision of 1Q.
The economic data is so bastardized at this point that it's irrelevant. Like the soviets kept spinning great economic data till the point of collapse. I fear collapse will come sooner rather than later as the ponzi unravels. The real economy is hurting badly and there are so many global bubbles everywhere it's insane. The world has never had such a great supply of fools. When the shit hits the fan a lot of people are going to get dirty and dead real quick.
@VK
+1. I believe none of this "data" anymore. I can see with my own eyes how bad this economy is. Two months ago, one of our biggest suppliers asked me to pay my current invoices so that he could make payroll. Several other vendors offered me early payment terms as an incentive. Our economic future is not very bright.
LOL
It's not the economy Cursive, it's you. Your suppliers don't trust you to pay your bills when the economy gets better so they want their money NOW. :>)
Would a tax revolt help?
Not really. Take 'tax' out of your comment and you're onto something.
Yeah.. I'm hearing that too.. I made a quote for someone, we were talking about business.. He told me business is Okay, not great, but the worse part is getting people to pay.. He says they have invoices out 90 days now and people aren't paying..
I don't care if they say the economy grew 10% because a) I don't believe them and b) there are at least 25 million people that need good paying jobs to hold asset prices up (housing) and stay in their houses and buy things... That's not going to happen..
They MUST lie.. They MUST lie.. I don't even fault them for it anymore.. I just fault the idiots that buy into the BS scheme.. It will be a tail-spin downward at some point..
The Shoe factories and Victory Gin makers have once again exceeded their quota, comrades! Long live Oceania and Big Brother!
CD, they goosed Q3 and Q4 of 2009 down Q3 1.6 from 2.2 and Q4 down to 5 from 5.6). These revisions actually show Q1-2010 was weaker than expected, but that upward revision from 2.7 to 3.7 sure looks nice for the Bulls, doesn't it?
A quick analysis, using Q2 as a base:
Revised-Current Original-Previous Q2 Base 1.000 1.000 Q309 1.60% 1.016 2.20% 1.022 Q409 5.00% 1.083 5.60% 1.102 Q110 3.70% 1.213 2.70% 1.244 Q210 2.40% 1.501 2.50% 1.577 (Estimate) (0.077) Var Est to Actual -5% % MissExcellent summary, many thx.
By far, the largest real growth going on is the size of the lies about the state of the economy.
LOL
Agreed. Just look at the huge increase in the second derivative of "official" lying. It's through the roof. Full recovery there and then some extra to spread around, sort of like spreading cow manure in the fields as a fertilizer. The fall crop of officials lies will set records.
If China says that their growth is 8% and in reality it's 6%, and US says it is 3% but in reality it is 2%, then who is the biggest lier, in
A) absolute terms
B) relative terms
Bonus point to include hedonistic adjustment in your answer.
Didn't I just hear this morning that China officially announced they grew by 11% + in the first half of 2010?
Washington DC can only dream wet dreams of being able to spout that magnitude of lie. :>)
And I just love the word "hedonistic". It sounds like something I would say when I have the K-Y jelly out. I'll leave the rest to your imagination. :>)
The Chinese invented fudging economic data. 11% with crashing real estate, worse than here? Never. Maybe 3%.
The reason China can grow so fast is because you can substitute noodles for rice when rice becomes more expensive. This will drive down chinese inflation considerably and maintain the real estate bubble.
Here is an article that blends the words "instant noodles" and "new home" in the same sentence.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/01/20/china.gdp.narrow.dwelling/ind...
+3.7pc!!
The reason they revised Q1 up 1% is they revised all numbers from 2007 forward (mostly down). Revisions are summarized in the full report.
"WTF? It is almost impossible to revise 1Q up by 1%."
No kidding.
There were some fat fingered analysts rehashing 1Q numbers. It'll be almost humorous when the BEA does a renege on that in 3Q. Hear it now:
"Oops, sorry, left off the negative sign, 1Q should have been 1.7, not 3.7 ... sorry about that."
As I understand it, it was a downward revision of Q4 09, not that it makes much difference unless they are trying to illustrate the benefits of the stimulus measures.....
GOAL (seek) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If my math is correct, 1% annualized of 2009 GDP is 0.25% of $14.26 Trillion or $35.65 Billion.
That's a large number to swallow.
On a daily basis, we are given larger and larger things to "swallow" all the time. Just swab a little novocaine on the back of your throat and tongue and you'll be fine. It's my understanding this was the "trade secret" of Debbie when she "did" Dallas.
A classic film noir... CD.
didn't you know...Only people with PhDs from honourable institutions are allowed to analyze numbers of an order of magnitude greater than 1T?
"WTF? It is almost impossible to revise 1Q up by 1%."
Total Monkey Fuck Statistics
A dozen AIDS infected research monkeys could turn out better data than the BLS and the BEA... read: Pravda.
The Obummer manipulation of choice is without a doubt constant revisions... and loading up the B/D ratio.
Obummer as The New Nixon
Does anybody beside me see more deception, disingenuous behavior and bald face lying out of this guy than Richard M. Nixon?
You know "Peace with honor in Vietnam" 1968 Nixon?
GDP is just another scam with its annualized number. I don't believe that any other country uses this deceptive process.
watch out for BOJ intervention in currency crosses; there have been rumors it might happen if YEN continues to strengthen. USDJPY falling fast might spark their intervention.
shitty result as expected, but the FED have already done their job ramping this market for the last few weeks in anticipation. Slight pullback today maybe as the smart money continues to bail out. The MSM will make sure it is forgoten about by next week. Headlines will read "U.S. economy posts fourth straight quarter of growth" and that will be enought to get the algos back in melt up mode. Numbers arent important anymore.
No worries CNBC headlines say " Slightly Missed"
Out entire economy is now reliant upon government and and what little state spending remains. Who needs small business anyways.
Party on Wayne.
Party on Garth.
The only people I know killing it bussiness wise rely on Gov programs to feed thier bussiness. They pay top dollar to keep those programs running. Who knew providing medical and convelescence services on the government dime would be like printing money.
The only customers out there are spending our tax dollars.
States and local jurisdictions have started cutting tax audit staff and are engaging private audit firms on a contingency basis, those guys are making a killing. They have taken the approach that anything they see is taxable and it's up to the taxpayer to deal with the state to get it off the assessment, not a fun place to be.
I look forward to fighting with them in the court system.
CNBC HEADLINE:
GDP UP 2.4% as Economy Still Growing, But Slowly
Complete with grpahic of a big green arrow UP....bwaaaaahahahahahahaha
CNN ain't quite far behind:
Still, the figure marks the fourth straight quarter of growth and confirms economists' views that the recession that began in December 2007 ended at some point in the middle of 2009
The report listed several reasons for GDP growth when all they had to say was, "The USG propped this debt-laden bitch of an economy up for another 3 months."
Tyler,
I love how ou use words like "plunges". Really? From Bloomberg:
This report is net positive, and you will see more upward revisions in the upcoming reports. A deceleration of growth is not an indication of a pending collpase, or double-dip. Period.
Enjoy your rally today, Leo.
We'll see in 3 months about your bull fantasy. The house of cards is falling apart and so is the real economy. It's incredible how a smart guy like yourself can miss the largest ponzi scheme in the history of humanity. I suspect a few years from now you'll look back and wonder how did I miss that when everyone around me was warning me. Good luck Leo, I worry about you and other bulls like you as I know plenty of them and fear the scars this collapse will leave on them. If the Economy doesn't tank as you say, my bets are hedged, I can carry on with my life but if it does tank, then I am prepared as best as I can be.
The bull fantasy has reverted to 100% reliance and dependence of Fed intervention, political corruption and media spin. Sounds like an excellent investment thess to me. The government manages to ruin everything they interfere with.
So what happens to a market that cannot stand on it's own two feet?
VK,
I don't fantasize or believe in Hollywood endings. As the global liquidity rally kicks into fourth and fifth gear, you're going to see a rally in some sectors the likes of which you've never seen before. As far as economic fundamentals, they're definitely not as bad as everyone around here claims. Using words like "plunges" serves no purpose whatsoever but to attract attention to a lopsided bearish view that has become religion on ZH.
@Leo
OK
That is a fantasy.
Leo,
It's a crisis of solvency. NOT liquidity. Our present monetary system is based on a debt based monetary system. Thus all money is lent into existence, the usefulness of that system is measured by the marginal productivity of debt which has been falling sharply for years and is now in negative territory. In 1950, each additional dollar loaned into existence resulted in 3 dollars of GDP output. Today the ratio is resulting in a net contraction to GDP. There has been a hyperexpansion of credit with multiple claims to a declining wealth pie. Thus we face a prolonged period of deflation where the virtual claims will be extinguished. The fundamentals are showing decay and decline, be it durables, housing, retail, the ECRI index, the consumer indexes website showing a 3.5pc contraction in the real economy. The initial jobless claims have been hovering around 455k for months now and US M3 reconstructions are showing a -10pc contraction in the money supply.
Liquidity is really a measure of confidence. The Government can't create confidence when they are taking so many bad decisions. The largest transfer of wealth in human history is taking place from the middle class to the rich while the limits to economic growth have been reached as evidenced by various reports that we are in biological overshoot. Look at the evidence, it's all around you. The marginal returns on investment are collapsing across society.
"It's a crisis of solvency. NOT liquidity."
Leo is a little slow on the uptake sometimes, give him a break. It once was about liquidity ... and since the PTB have not done anything about it ... it is now a question of solvency.
Who knows the bad debts and hair cuts that are still out there?
According to the bankers, they've overreserved for that ... somehow, I find that somewhat disingenious.
Oh yes, I forgot, the US is the next Greece....give me a break!
I didn't forget your go long Hellenic Bonds call. How is that working out for you, Leo?
Let's be fair here, Leo's story (rising stock market, boffo economic growth) is still theoretically possible. The current situation of economic stagnation and flat stock market seems poised between Leo's prediction and economic collapse. The judgement on these scenarios waits in the future I think.
Leo Gets HFJ -- High Frequency Junked
It is a sad for the Maple Leaf as Leo is savaged by his Amerikan critics...
Explain how:
http://larouchepac.com/node/11319
is off the rails, then.
Leo, you obviously have a PhD, as your daily comments indicate. May I ask from what institution?
University of Phoenix - Online...and it's an honorary PhD.
Honorary? Same as Greenspan...
What does a contracting GDP numbers indicate to you Leo? To me it would be indicative of a recession forming. Oh I'm sure you believe that all those unemployed are still spending indiscriminately even though they lost their UE benefits for a few weeks. Jobs are still being lost at a very high rate, and no new jobs have formed on the horizon. Let us not forget the states that are so debt ridden, that they to will have to start laying off massive amounts of workers and cutting pay. Still nothing good on the horizon, and from now to the end of year is looking dire at best. You always talk about the markets are forward looking, please tell me what they are looking forward to besides their next fix?
You have to look at the second derivative. Oh wait, that's bad too.
+1
:-)
Leo,
Also from Bloomberg
"Recession in U.S. Was Even Worse Than Estimated, Revisions Show"
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abbicFFNiHVM&pos=2
Net positive? How about downward revisions for most of 2008 and 2009? Q1 2010 GDP is LOWER than reported previously.
Leo are you actually serious or are you just trying to wind us all up i can never tell?
if you are serious can i suggest a form of therapy you might find usefull over the months ahead: Just close your eyes and say "this is not happening, this is not happening" and repeat as many times as required.
serious or not? who cares, he does bring high-octane to the fire. - Ned
sorry - double
"serious or not? who cares, he does bring high-octane to the fire. - Ned"
+110 AvGas
+1. Really cute: “Double dip confirmed as Q2 GDP plunges from revised Q1 number: GDP comes in at a below consensus 2.4%, which a huge drop from the revised Q1 number which came in at 3.7% (from 2.7%).”
First, you are confusing the magnitude and direction of changes in GDP: The magnitude was less than expected but the direction (growth) was correct. Last time I checked $13.216 trillion > $13.139 trillion. GDP did not “plunge” or “drop” but expanded at a slower rate.
Second, how is the double dip confirmed? Usually a recession involved contraction in GDP, although the NBER uses many metrics. Or is four quarters of growth the new red?
When the growth starts to slow (i.e. 2.4% from 2.7%) then you are getting an inflection point forming. An inflection in this case would be heading towards a recession (or negative percentages). BTW your GDP $ listed, how much of that money was public sector spending as opposed to the private sector? Yeah not good, also look at the (now have to be reconstructed) M3 numbers.
An inflection point may or may not be approaching. Personally, I think another recession is highly likely, but the data show that it has not begun yet. I will not manipulate or chery pick the data to support my hypothesis.
Statements like "What does a contracting GDP numbers indicate" proceed from a false premise to a false conclusion.
Leo, I respect you and enjoy reading your posts, but everyday life just isn't jiving with what you're saying. In the last 24 hours, I've seen/heard lots commercials on the tv/radio about sales due to high inventory. One furniture company says that they received a double shipment (yeah, right!) of recliners, so they are having to sell them 50% off. The car dealerships and retail appliance stores are offering unbelievable bargains, presumably to make room for the 2011 inventory. Everyone I know is making do with what they have and do not plan to buy any durable goods in the near future. Wasn't there a post on ZH stating that raw materials for manufacturing is down something like 60%? Correct me if I'm wrong but if inventory is way way up, what need is there to manufacture more items? Won't that result in even more lay-offs and an ever-tightening concentric rotation down the drain?
I would simply like to see Leo talk about the structural problems of unemployment and manufacturing debasing. I would give much more merit to his market view if he acknowledged to 800 lb gorilla..
All of this economic data is noise to me..
Could this news initiate Archie's prophecies and the resulting "deluge" of selling: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/234091-hewitt-heiserman/61457-rare-cardinal-climax-planetary-alignment-this-summer-puts-stocks-at-risk-says-veteran-sky-watcher
@Running on Empty
Since CNBC is part of the "team coverage" of the Olympics, this could imply 2012? I'm looking for them to start showing more movies, like The Weather Channel (another Universal product).
so this is a BUY then?
This report stinks, the revisions stink. This is all they can get from trillons spent. Bang for the Buck is on vacation.
It's just like taking cash advances from your credit cards - sitting on a pile of cash - and calling yourself a wealthy man.
or defaulting on your debt but stockpiling the cash you earn which I am quickly starting to realize might be the smartest answer on a personal level
Is that a death rattle? Deflation in the US will overturn all exisiting global economic relationships! Just imagining the US with a trade surplus should be enough to understand this.
PS: This deflation will NOT, as some expect, be a replay of Japan...
A NEW article covering the never ending inflation/deflation story.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/16437-Inflation-versus-Defla...
Here's one item from the article which may be of interest:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_FC8pEiNFZO8/Sq_62Qnuc9I/AAAAAAAAAtw/eqyfYyyM-6...
Yes,you've guessed correctly....... less toilet paper but same price.....another nice example of stealth inflation.
Just like to add.
If any of you were curious as to what Zero Hedge McMansion looks like,..'ere y'go
http://nunetherlands.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/haunted_house.jpg
*Of the many fine diabolical exhibits on display at the spooky asylum is an ancient burial ground where the decaying remains of the junked comments continue to rot in the trash basement of history.*
All I can say is I'm shocked. I figured with how well the recovery been going, we should of at least been 15.2% or something realistic. Hahaha
The was the highest GDP number ever recorded. Obama can now claim he was President of the largest economy in US history.
And I can say with certainty that the number is meaningless.
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=43&ViewS...
Year over year up 1.19%. Let's hear those guys on CNBC discuss that number.
the funny thing is they found that the recession was infact bigger the first time.....and recovery was slower after the QE.....hahahaha
Awww dammit, who transposed the 2 for the 3? Benny and Timmay told you guys 3.4, no worries there will be a retraction and restatement in an hour or two.
One more thing on imports slowing growth:
This too is very positive because firms are investing in machinery & equipment. As consumption slows a little, business investment will pick up, supporting growth. This is what we expect at this point of the cycle.
junk!
Jesus Christ, Leo...can you stop this shit? Those of us that work in manufacturing have a little better insight than this horseshit you gleen from somewhere and post. It's not getting better, it's a fact, now please stop the pollyanna cheerleading bullshit already.
Well that is just fabulous news. We import more shit so that we can lay off more US workers. That is a win-win for the markets. Feedback loops are a bitch.
Leo, we all here on zh admire your optimism..keep it up..CNBC will be calling soon...I am a snake bit investor, who thinks ,WS and DC are criminal enterprises ..who spew false info constantly and are plundering the treasury at will.
My world view if correct is a bitter victory. So I am sure many here hope your optimism is justified.. all the best. Dow 36,000 or bust.
Depends what industry you're in:
Leo I always like your optimism. My day job is in electronics and I sell Power one, there are such shortages for components that their lead times went out too 22 weeks. They are not even accepting expedites at the factory. Comair Rotron did the same thing right before becoming irrelevant, technically bankrupt. Not feel good signs.
As much as it kills me to say it. Leo always seems to come out on top. Maybe his mantra of don't fight the Fed should be followed. I for one am sick of losing money being short. I believe we are in a withering economy and a depression but the Fed seems to have complete control over the markets.
Roll over and take it like a man.
We know what industry you're in Leo...you are in charge of the rainbow enemas and sunshine lobotomies.
It's a double rainbow all the way!
Oh my God!
What does it mean?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQSNhk5ICTI&feature=related
Import Export counts are way to integrated within each other as the system really doesnt know how to separate whats what. For those that want to do some DD(link below) By the wayside-P Rico---District of Col---Virgin Islands and of course the infamous Unallocated are included in GDP.
http://tse.export.gov/TSE/TSEOptions.aspx?ReportID=102&Referrer=TSEReports.aspx&DataSource=SED
For exports that are returned and counted as imports but not subtracted from the export equation look no farther than the HTS codes.
http://www.zepol.com/HTS-Codes-Detail/98.aspx
GBPUSD upside continues, since daily and weekly charts remain bullish.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/about