GDP Second Revision At 1.8% On Expectations Of 2.2%, Sub 1% Ex-Inventory Build; Initial Claims Surge To 424K

Tyler Durden's picture

Contrary to expectations by the endlessly wrong Wall Street crew, the second revision of Q1 GDP came not as expected at 2.2% (up from 1.8% in the first estimate), but far, far lower at 1.8%. And while the number is largely irrelevant for the future and even current economy, it shows that the contraction is far more pronounced. More troubling is the shift in various GDP components contributing to the number: the biggest delta was Personal Consumption Expenditures which missed by a whopping 21%, plunging from 2.7% to 2.2%, on expectations of a rise to 2.8%. As a result as the chart below shows, the "growth" in Q1 was based on even shakier grounds: the contribution from PCE plunged from 1.91% to 1.16%, with Fixed Investment plunging from 0.93% to 0.26%. The plug: why old faithful of course - Inventories, which "added" 1.19% to growth, up from 0.09% in the first revision. Ex the now traditional inventory build, Q1 GDP growth was sub 1%. Which means that once the inevitable liquidations commence, the US will go into all out contraction. And confirming the keyword of 2011 "stagflation" is now firmly entrenched, was the BLS advising us that initial claims surged from 404K to 424K. So much for no QE3. Next up, as we have said ever since January, Jan Hatzius and Bill Dudley start having tete-a-tetes. Everyone knows what follows...

Charting the troubling shift in GDP components:

From the truly ugly BEA report:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2011, (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected a sharp upturn in imports, a deceleration in PCE, a larger decrease in federal government spending, and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a sharp upturn in private inventory investment.

Motor vehicle output added 1.28 percentage points to the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.27 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change. Final sales of computers added 0.06 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.35 percentage point to the fourthquarter change.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 3.8 percent in the first quarter, unrevised from the advance estimate; this index increased 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in the fourth.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent in the fourth. Durable goods increased 8.9 percent, compared with an increase of 21.1 percent. Nondurable goods increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent. Services increased 1.5 percent, the same increase as in the fourth.

Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 0.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 6.7 percent in the fourth.

And from the Initial Claims report:

In the week ending May 21, the advance figure for
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 424,000, an increase of 10,000 from
the previous week's revised figure of 414,000. The 4-week moving average was
438,500, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average of
440,250.

The 99 week cliff is affected ever more people: 63K dropped off EUCs and Extended Benefits.

Summarizing it all: Stagflation.

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LRC Fan's picture

Fucking HUGE miss there...even Liesman had trouble explaining this one away.  So, look for the Dow to be +35 or so by the time Strategy Session kicks off at noon. 

oh_bama's picture

THANKS GOD YOU DID NOT MENTION THE UPWARD REVISIONS ANYMORE

oogs66's picture

LOL, was thinking the same thing!

snowball777's picture

Osama, Schwarzie, Volcanos....take your pick, Steve!

Weisbrot's picture

 

at least we can rely on the honesty of th Bureau of Lying Statistics to be perpetually full of crap when it comes to the economy.

 

ziggy59's picture

its a recovery on Htrae

TruthInSunshine's picture

The U.S. is, even by its own reported data (and with some adjustment to reflect a more pure form of reality - i.e. appreciating inventories for what they are in relation to GDP 'growth') is 0.9% away from economic contraction.

Way to save the day, Bernanke, Paulson, Geithner...

That's some seriously efficient large cash that you expended, and we're so glad to see the fruits of your impecable mental masturbations now blooming.

You saved the economy. You did it, guys. And now we can all rest easy knowing that the increase in the debt and quality of the Fed's and its member banks' balance sheets are that much healthier, too!

/s

youngman's picture

Stagflation with an extra trillion or two dollars every year.....

Alex Lionson's picture

Looks more like a depression...

Ropingdown's picture

The entire Fed program has been to fight off nominal deflation until hopefully growth appears.  If the world economy continues to weaken, that effort will appear useless, and deflation will be preferable to an endless burn.  Letting investors and businesses get ready for the deflation if they bother to pay attention wasn't a bad idea. Depression is still more likely than a boom.  At best moderate inflation will be enough to hide the reality of real but slow declines in asset values and wages.  Slight errors could blow the thing sky-high, of course.

Sean7k's picture

Should be good for 50 pts. 

Archimedes's picture

So the bots will interpret this as positive...S&P 1450 here we come!

oogs66's picture

Personal consumption much weaker.  Has to be good for retailers, right?  More to spend now this quarter?  Insane.

Boilermaker's picture

Absolutely.  REITs will hit a new 52 week high today as they do virtually every day.

snowball777's picture

Why they can lay off thousands now...think of the money they'll save!

(like a speedfreak talking up weight-loss as a feature of their booty bump habit)

pre's picture

That's actually a great example.  The next time I hear a CEO, one of the MSM, or Politicos pimping the economy, I'll be seeing a Meth head talking about how easily they've trimmed down.  Sure it'll kill them in the end; but just look at how easy it was to lose 50 lbs.

jmc8888's picture

...and of course the weight loss is temporary.  But the addiction will most likely be endless.  Short term gains at long term expense.  Great match.

Um.....Glass(not that kind)-Steagall

Boilermaker's picture

The "market" loves it.  REITs love it even more premarket. 

It's just so damn believable. 

Fantasy Planet's picture

I'm not gonna spin it, you spin it.

I'm not gonna spin it.

I've got an idea, let's get Timmy.  He'll spin anything. 

 

 

MrTrader's picture

QE III + QE IV here we come!

jtmo3's picture

Green day to follow on wall street. After all, when the money's free...

Alex Kintner's picture

Ha. IBM made its contribution to the job bleeding this week. It started its annual 'Job Offshoring Program' -- to be PC, they call them "Resource Actions". They typically layoff 10-15,000 US workers and ship the jobs to India, China and Brazil.

RobotTrader's picture

Same reaction as usual to horrid economic reports:

- Gold down

- Silver down

- Tiffany's up $2.50, new record highs

- Guess up $5 on blowout earnings

- Priceline over $500 again

- Another new record high for NFLX

- Treasuries rallying again, ignoring debt ceiling

Market continues to shrug off bad news and climbs the wall of worry.

LRC Fan's picture

Gold has been holding up extremely well lately...contrary to what you and Math Man claimed was "coming"-the "surge in volatility" in gold.  Hasn't happened yet.  I'd say we get to 1600 before we see any real volatility.  Even then, a few $30-50 down days here and there isn't the end of the world-just another chance to load up before we take out $2k and beyond. 

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Well said.  For someone who believes in the IBD system, Robo is very selective in what he highlights.  Anyone who follows the IBD system would see that gold looks very good technically right now.

Caviar Emptor's picture

Gold just under record levels. Tells you that profits from commerce or stock trading are evaporating in the face of inflation in the cost of living, working and doing business. 

LRC Fan's picture

Yeah, unlike most others I actually gave Math Man and Robo a chance to prove themselves without any bias.  Not sure why I did that.  They simply highlight the positives just like the idiots on the blowhorn.  Any time silver is way up where are they?  Any time the big momo names are down, where is Robo?  Eating a fucking Big Mac? 

Bottom line-Qe3, 4, 5, 6 ARE coming, gold and silver FTMFW. 

tmosley's picture

Everybody gave them a chance.  Multiple chances even.  Just because you didn't witness it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

SheepDog-One's picture

Its very easy for MomoFader, every day he just gets a new piece of paper and writes down his new 'portfolio of trusty stalwarts' after searching for whatever happens to be up.

Deep's picture

Ya, hell of a wall its climed in last 3 months, almost 4

high wall i guess

BOZO

snowball777's picture

Participating in the Charlie Sheen Economy (tm), gargling with Courvoisier, and wiping your ass with "ins" won't fix the core economy, Robo.

Keep those Tiffany bobbits safe...we'll be back for 'em later.

 

Sean7k's picture

Gold and silver fell in Europe long before this report. Futures are at +2, Come on Robo, that is just sloppy.

monopoly's picture

Robot, you are an absolute idiiot. Where were your posts as gold moved 45 dollars higher, silver up 4 dollars, PCLN down 30 points, NFLX deals with 15.00 dollar sales which would work well in a depression. How come you never post anything about China frauds.

Where were you when LNKD blew up from 122 to 86. What planet are you on?

Tyler, where is the Goddamn ignore button.

redarrow's picture

Seriously, I am tired of the constant junk posted by him. At least before he was putting up some skimply clad models but not anymore. Looks like someone got to him and he found religion.

SheepDog-One's picture

'Personal consumption MUCH weaker'? RainbowTrader? But you said the market is pricing in the obviously robust consumer consumefest? So what now?

Shock and Aweful's picture

Yep....all will be well in mo-mo land until all of a sudden is isn't.

 

There is gonna be a massacre in the stock and bond markets at some point.  Anyone who is counting this to continue had better hope Ben will give you another dub-sack of  "QE" so that hot money, drug-addicted stock-market levitation can continue just a while longer... 

The only problem is that the 2 rounds of QE (and any other money-injection games they play) have only made the up-slope on this roller coaster higher and steeper.  At some point though....gravity (or reality) is going to take hold and going to pull this whole train over the top...and onto the down slope.  Once that happens, it will not take long to reach a terminal velocity....Think you are smart enough to time it just right?  Will you be able to jump off the train at the top?  Are you going to be able to liquidate quicker than the HFT robots?  IF not....you might want to consider taking all of the profits you have made in this faux-economy and buy yourself some tangible assets.  Land, gold, food, ammuntion as well as getting yourself out of debt completely.

 

Or...maybe I am just a paranoid freak.  Maybe I should just realize that our  stock market is going up as a reflection of the progress and growth we have made ....financially, economically, politically, and socially. 

Afterall...the economy is getting better right?  Jobs are getting beter, right?  The banking and financial casino has been closed down and the problems fixed...right?  And Facebook really is worth half a billion dollars.....

 

You're right...all is well here...I am going all in on Priceline, Netflix and Linked-In...and may sell all my physical metals for a bunch of shares of GM and Citibank....UP UP AND AWAY TO A BRAVE NEW TOMORROW!!

trav7777's picture

ZOMG teh goleds are down $6

Robslob's picture

From Fed speak earlier in the month...commenting on the only way easing would turn into tightening is if GDP were to grow beyond expected levels.

Or in other words, more QE in the form of <enter here>....

Poor Robo...still looking at the paper price of gold are you...lmao...

 

youngman's picture

from the 2 year old news this morning about the 0.01% loans...they are doing it today..and we will not hear about it until another two years goes by......but in my opinion..it will be over by then...QE whatever....it disgusts me to read this kind of crap...I was taught right and wrong....this is wrong..very wrong....

RocketmanBob's picture

More to come

More commentary, or more stagflation :)

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Dow futures still +2.

monopoly's picture

GM, and another piece to this 1,000 piece puzzle falls into place. Said it a dozen times, gonna take a while but the pieces are slowly filling in.

Still not shorting this market.

digalert's picture

Wait till Barama gets home...he's gonna be mad.

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Private investment is at 0.23%, that is the compionent that drives recoveries and its non existant.