This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
George Soros Warns Of Biggest Market Crash To Come, As "We Are Facing A Yet Larger Bubble" Than During Credit Crisis
George Soros, speaking at a meeting organized by The Economist, warns all those who are throwing their money into the equity pit, that "the financial world is on the wrong track and that we may be hurtling towards an even bigger boom and bust than in the credit crisis." Advice from Soros or from CNBC. You decide. Reuters reports that Soros said "the same strategy of borrowing and spending that had got us out of the Asian crisis could shunt us towards another crisis unless tough lessons are learned." We hope all those who are buying stocks have very tight stop loss triggers.
“The success in bailing out the system on the previous occasion led to a superbubble, except that in 2008 we used the same methods,” he told a meeting hosted by The Economist at the City of London’s modern and impressive Haberdashers’ Hall.
“Unless we learn the lessons, that markets are inherently unstable and that stability needs to the objective of public policy, we are facing a yet larger bubble.
“We have added to the leverage by replacing private credit with sovereign credit and increasing national debt by a significant amount.”
The one thing allowing those invested to sleep at night is the observation that it took 10 years between the 1998 Asian crisis and the 2008 credit crisis. "If the pattern is repeated, it should at least mean we have another 8 years to go before the next crash."
We would take the under on that. In 1998 and all the way through 2008, developed countries as a percentage of their GDPs were at most half od where they are now. At this point the entire credit house of cards continues to exist only so long as credit conditions for US sovereign debt can be massaged by the Fed enough that the world forgets there are is $10 trillion in debt issuance on deck over the next decade (a conservative estimate). It is a virtual impossibility that the money printer of even what may still be considered the reserve currency (although that distinction is rapidly shifting back to gold once again) can withhold a multi-trillion issuance onslaught and a multi-trillion corporate/CRE refi wave with 10 Years at under 4%. The next crisis will, as Soros points out, begin in the sovereign debt arena. In fact, it has already begun. Here is Reuters with an extended report on Greece's formal request for IMF aid. Net result - add another $560 billion in public leverage to the system.
h/t Chris
»
- 42450 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
The decrepid old vampire speaks. Hey George, we can see your shorts.
This decrepit old vampire is no less nor no more credible than the new vampire, that lovable squid we call GS.
So your point is?
my point is nothing more than stating the obvious, Soros is a vampire. Much like your useful and obvious response that GS is the new vampire.
Every thread has it's arrogant asshole. I sense a touch of arrogance in your question. If that is the case you are hereby nominated.
K-Y please.
Now why would you edit your comment after telling me to shove it where the sun don't shine?
Perhaps because your tone warrants it?
there's some truth to that CD
And so there was nothing wrong with the ad hominem attack by spyware-free against Soros? I'm not defending Soros. I'm defending his comments, which are completely valid. The poster is attacking Soros in a effort to discredit the comments. This is the purpose of the attack. So everyone who agrees that Soros is a scum bag is dismissing his comments? Come on people, it works both ways. Information is information regardless of the messenger or speaker.
I pointed out that the validity of Soros (and thus his comments) is no better or worse than GS. So it's the information that's important, not the speaker. In an article highlighting Soros's comments, what is the purpose of attacking Soros except to diminish his comments. On a web site/blog whose only purpose is to disseminate information, the first comment under the article ignores the information and attacks the information speaker. And my tone is bad because I ask the poster the purpose of the attack?
Wake up people. Your programming and conditioning is showing. Your view is distorted by your distaste for Soros.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem
+1
over the last 12 months, if i had more carefully considered the position of those who i did not agree with for whatever philosophical or emotional reason, i might not be a wiser man, but i'd certainly be a richer one (then again, i would have also had to give up 28% of that to help buy more toys for the boys).
White noise Friday CD. Always the process of attempting to create another villain, loser or whatever to try and shift blame or impropriety onto rather than simply addressing the content of the message will rear its head from those that demand what they refuse to provide. Just because someone has a commercial interest or position does not render their observations moot. In the case of Soros it can be a challenge to discern the influences that effect his judgment, as hold true for most of us rendering the basis of the challenge to Soros's position as either an observation of the whole, themselves included, or as a willing refusal to acknowledge it. This seems especially germane since the information that is being demanded as some sort of requirement to discern validity is not being furnished by the person making the demand.
Well Blondie...
I think Colonel Douglas (CD) Mortimer just shot off the tip of your cigar...
Or as Colonel Mortimer said to the Hunchback:
"I generally smoke just after I eat. Why don't you come back in about ten minutes?"
Uh... I think I better move along...
For a moment I thought I had accidently gotten onto Myspace. Nope. This certainly isn't Kansas.
well Dorothy just follow the yellow brick road
Yikes!!!!!! Runnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
This I gotta see. Peace pal
I remember Soros saying this in his book which was released about 2 months before the last meltdown.
Does this mean Google won't reach $19,000 per share?
It will, but a 6 piece chicken nugget will be the same price...
Do chicken nuggets count as tangible assets?
They do when they come with a prize...
http://www.viewzone.com/mcnuggets.html
chicken nuggets are financial assets that can be used as collateral for TARP/KFC.....
I just doubled down.....
Best regards,
Econolicious
just doubled down
so you bet another 250 bucks lol
sure chicken nuggets are tangible assets .. but try eating gold ...
This talk is making me hungry for some gold nuggets
Soros, Chanos Blast Banks
Apr 14 2010 | 11:52am ET
Two top hedge fund managers piled on U.S. banks this week, with George Soros and James Chanos offering pointed criticism.
Soros said yesterday that the U.S. bank “oligopoly” needs to be broken up. The Soros Fund Management founder added that he backed the so-called Volcker Rule, which would ban banks from owning, operating or investing in hedge funds and private equity funds, as well as from proprietary trading, as well as putting limits on their size.
The four largest banks in the U.S. are an oligopoly that “does need to be broken up,” Soros told an Economist magazine event in London. Soros, a top donor to the U.S. Democratic Party, is the richest alternative investments titan in the world; his $25 billion hedge fund has about 6.6% of its assets invested in financials; Citigroup, one of the oligarchs, is its fifth-largest holding.
Meanwhile, Chanos is calling for an investigation of the banks, saying that their proprietary trading operations—and not hedge funds—were to blame for the financial crisis.
Kynikos Associates’ Chanos told PBS’ Charlie Rose this week that regulators need to have a look at the bank’s prop trading records from 2008 [See Full Transcript]. He said that banks were the largest buyers of credit-default swaps that year, not hedge funds.
“We need to find out because hedge funds and short sellers are being vilified and being pointed to as the cause or additive to the problem,” he said. “And, in fact, people like me were covering our financial shorts in 2008. We had put them on in 2005 and 2006.”
http://www.finalternatives.com/node/12129
________________________________________________________________________________________________
It seems to me that Wall Street is now sqeezing even the big boys... Oops, welcome to the Main Street club boys... take your shoes off and open a beer and enjoy the show...
I wonder who has the more powerful lobby? Sorros with his monies or Wall Street with un-limited tax payer monies?
Never mind, I answered my own question.
Welcome to bailout universe, where every financially inept, corrupt, irresponsible, and/or complicit company/government/individual/institution gets a bailout to continue the illusion that all is well. And, the bailer is the US middle class. I feel so powerful. Question is, when will I shrug.
It depends. Who is John Galt?
I am John Galt. I gave the world the idea of securitization. It was supposed to free mankind from risk. Instead you stole it and turned it around. You turned unmitigated risk into the biggest risk of all. You made it bigger than life. You chopped up the paper so many times, no one knows who really holds the notes anymore. Who gets paid? Who gets bankrupted? No one really knows anymore....so guess what, you're all bankrupt. Because you could no longer manage the risk, you created off balance sheet entities and special purpose vehicles. When you could no longer count high enough to determine your exposures, you sold CDS's against them to further reduce spread the risk. You ruined a good thing. I never should have given it to you. You never understood the risks involved in going risk free. You never explained the inherent risk to those you sold it to. You collected fees on the pooling, you collected fees on the sales, you collected fees on the creation of the derivatives. You sold things of no value, you did not deserve your profits. Securitization is non-productive. You bring no value stripping things apart for the sole purpose of raping and stealing from someone. You have poisoned my message. It must end......It will all end. Will it matter? Does anyone care??? There comes a time when you can no longer service the debts, can no longer collect your management fees and when you can no longer restructure the cash. Cash flow is king and without it, we die. The math is never wrong, and the system has been broken. It is time we take back what you stole. It is time bring down the house. I am John Galt.
i am john galt. i am anonymously buried in the payroll of large corporations that are so blind, they cannot see the hand of tyranny in front of their face. so encumbered by government bureaucracy as instituted by the looters, that their free-market inertia is grinding to a collective halt. so exposed by the corrupt banking policies that have evolved since the inception of the federal reserve, that their overseas markets have not only dried up, but are now stronger than they. moochers demand more meat fron their carcass, however, the dried, decaying skin has not yet been removed to expose the dry, hollow bones beneath, as the taxidermist bankers have labored galiantly to hide the shell of a body which the hagfish hath carnivorously devoured in the name of equality...justice...progression. there is no more meat to be had. the die is cast. fate will not be cheated through fiat manipulations. the moochers have demanded to be satiated and delivered from the evil of consequence, and the looters have obliged the former, while of course taking their due along the way, but know that the latter is an unavoidable consequence. the moochers have demanded "we are americans! we have a right to what is not rightly ours!" and the looters have obliged over and over. freedoms have been stripped. rights have been awarded. circuses have been performed. bread has been provided. industry has been usurped. finance has been regulated. taxes have been levied. debt has been monetized. wealth has been redistributed. contracts have been abandoned. government has become the savior of the moochers, and their numbers are growing. government is now the executioner of the producers...and our numbers are diminishing.
the paradigm has changed. "to each according to their need, from each according to their ability" has replaced "endowed by our creator certain unalienable rights, of which include the right to life, liberty, and the pusuit of happiness."
i am john galt.
we are john galt.
Actually I am John Galt, and so is my wife.
lol, Monty Python FTW
john galt has the floor
john galt he is not lol long paragraphs of mismash they are . burma shave.
i read the book, but i skipped over the 40 page speech... thanks for paraphrasing it for me lol
That was the best part of the book. Nothing you didn't already know, but well stated.
john galt has left the building.
“There might be some sort of justification for the savage societies in which a man had to expect that enemies could murder him at any moment and had to defend himself as best he could. But there can be no justification for a society in which a man is expected to manufacture the weapons for his own murderers.”
(h reardon)
"That's just wepwehensible teabagger talk"
(b frank)
While I do not disagree with the fundamental structural issues he points out, what I get out of this is that he has amassed a major short-on-equities position and is asking others to put tight stops in now (as opposed to hedge with puts) to help build up the downside, sell momentum.
Soros just needs the fuse to be lit to get the equity plunge machine in motion.
So? How is that any different from every idiot on CNBC who runs the "mid cap growth fund", that is long the bottom decile of the russell 2000 because hey thats there the action is, getting on tv every half hour assuring you that 2008 never happened and its all up and to the right for asset prices?
The Russell is smaller businesses right?
Well how come small business confidence is still falling?
Mish/Shedlock also raised some interesting questions about the apparent disconnect between the latest retail numbers (up), and state sales tax revenue (down). Could be due to legitimate differences in time frames represented by the data, or other factors. But it does make me want to look into it further.
I think it is because he sees more frailty in the market because it is so relatively THIN (volume), something the vix does not always see? This might be why the market has gone up so fast, and why he thinks it will go down even faster with moderate selling.
Next cry-sis 10 years, from now... really?!
And what about the dotcom bust in the middle of those 10 years?
"Oops. Forgot about that one. So many bubbles...so little time."
While he is telling us this, he is probably one of players. Nonetheless, a tea party can go on for a while such as we saw after 2001 recession. It took nearly 7 years for another bust. I am bearish on our markets due to knowledge. The reality is that everyone agrees that the emperors clothes look great. As such, they intend to stick to that story.
true, it did take 7 years, but guess what, from the bottom in 2001 it took almost 5 years AND a giant credit bubble AND booming internatinal growth AND a housing bubble to get the S&P to 1200 - 5 years PLUS all that
From the bottom in 2008 it took less than 18 months with NONE of that (yes, emerging economies doing better, but Europe is doing terribly and is materially bigger)
Maybe the crisis is a ways off (personally, not so sure) but anyone who thinks equities should be here is nuts
Probably@!!!!!!!
You might want to check with his cousin, Madeleine Albright, on that "probably."
Why continue to babble about greece as no one cares until it blows.......why i cant explain but thats a fact.
There's simply no way we get to 8 years. The FED knows it can't raise rates, or the whole leveraged lunacy collapses, the banks can earn the money on the yield curve and hope and pray all the bad loans somehow get inflated away. The PDs continue to push the markets higher, aided by government manipulation of data, but unemployment, oil prices, tax receipts and the housing market tell a different picture. Soros is right, this is insane and it will collapse, but the Fed cannot change direction now, our economic model needs the debt bubble to stay alive.
We need to borrow more than we can afford to pay back, or we don't have growth.
Everyone talks his book.
What, George didn't buy the market bottom? He wants another chance at cheap stocks.
Thank you comrade Soros!
I don't think the question is whether or not we're in the bubble, but what will cause it to pop. Early on, I learned not to pick a fight a fight with someone bigger and who bigger than all the governments working together to keep this thing afloat.
I have become infatuated with this question -- what event(s) will set the new momentum? Will any of us see it and describe it before it happens, or will we only begin to understand why in hindsight? With transparency so dearly compromised, and free market distortions so prevalent, I fear we will only understand this event once we are fully consumed by it.
There is a scientific term for this - a critical steady state. It is when a system appears to be in a steady state, e.g. heavy moving traffic on the freeway, but it only takes one car to slam on the brakes and next thing you know, the traffic is backed up for miles. Another analogy is that water does not always freeze at Zero Centigrade, but it can freeze provided there is a imperfection to allow the crystalline structure to fall, but ultra pure water can get to several degrees below.
The aim of monetary policy is to allow gradual debasement of the Dollar, thus lifting all boats, houses, equities, commodities, food and goods, wages at approximately the same rate, thus smoothly transitioning the system without anything breaking (especially the precious banking system.) Creditor get paid back, but they lose value, debts get cleared more easily.
There are several internal risks in this plan. Banks will be to greedy and will get ahead of the curve, making sure via leverage they stay ahead of the game. Businesses will try to ramp up profits, by having wage rises lag, which will work against them as demand will remain depressed. Consumers may be unwilling or unable to get further into debt to make up for the shortfall in income. In response to this, the central bankers can keep priming the monetary pump.
However, the one thing the Western central banks cannot control is the price of oil. If the oil majors believe they are being paid in nothing but worthless Benny Bucks, they may bring about a 70s style oil crisis (one of the major causes of which was taking the Dollar off the gold standard.) and simply withhold supply or suddenly refuse to accept Dollars. After all, these nations do not have the debt problems the major nations face, so end up being the net losers.
The biggest risk with that kind of plan is that it doesn't work. QE guarantees staglfation at a bare minimum, and ZIRP guarantees another contraction if interest rates ever rise. Fiscal stimulus cannot temporarily replace aggregate consumer demand and it does not create growth, it can at best increase demand for assets/services in certain sectors of the economy at the expense of others, like those involved in infrastructure projects. The interconnected nature of economies means that businesses will come to depend on government largess to function especially if there is no organic demand for what they offer and once government stops spending the money, whether by design or by circumstance, those industries lose their source of income and the economy begins to shrink again.
+4
But one correction. The 70's oil situation differed from today in that the oil market was not as global. Arab countries had originally signed leases with the big oil companies that gave them from 5 to 20 cents per barrel for oil selling for $1.5 to $2 per barrel. Gasolene in the US was 25 to 30 cents per gallon. The oil companies had, of course, invested in and developed the infrastructure. (that became the era of the "Seven Sisters") The Arabs decided that the deal wasn't fair. After all it was their oil. Traditional middle eastern barganing practice was 50-50. So the various little countries began to simply take over with trained local labor. Price of oil went up. Gasolene at the pump went to 75 cents. Armond Hammer, who had bought a little US oil producer in California called Occidental had proposed a deal beginning at 50-50; he got to keep his oil concessions.
It is true that the dollar is and will be worth less but these nations will still want to trade for goods they cannot make themselves. They may be able to pirate software but they cannot pirate Boeing aircraft or solid state electronics.
I was thinking oil would do it again.. but as more people become unemployed and businesses fail, demand continues to drop.
Primarily I would think an event outside the US would do it. As it may occur
faster than a strike/pp team can do damage control...
Internally, revenues continue to drop, and banks are still putting up the facade that they are healthy. I know they are struggling bad, BofA just put in a claim for my bankruptcy
proceeds. $4k was the grand total, and the two creditors I had, laid claim (my home loan, and BofA credit card). So, when a bank goes from pulling down hundreds of billions per year, to scraping the buffet line for a couple g's.. THAT, is hard up my friends.
And just think, I recall back in early 2007 we had a new accountant at work. She told
me her previouse job at the bank, told her 'she had to put assets down as income on the balance sheet.' She told them 'she wouldn't do it, it's illegal!' The said 'do it, or we will find someone that will!', so she quit.
Don't know anything about accounting, or if that truly is illegal. But I started
laughing, and she was puzzled.. all I had to say was "GOLD BITCHES!!!!"
Nah, I just told her she confirmed what I thought about the system.
The real bubble has popped. F^$K what the market is doing. It's a circus sideshow run by greedy criminal morons. The real bubble is the HUMAN CAPITAL that has been destroyed. Countless lives have been ruined in the last 20 years by this artificial boom. It's playing out in ways that no one can really figure out, but the reality is, we're in a depression and pretending we're not. That won't last long.
Just watch..........
Markets don't require an event to reverse. Up trends reverse when demand for buying is exhausted. What I see right now is a very significant distribution of stock from those in the know to those who don't know. A classic reversal day with a strong open, intraday up +1% or more, followed by a down close would be very cool. That's what I'm looking for.
I don't think there's a bubble first of all and secondly, the Fed keeps determined to allow ZIRP for a long long time. Maybe as we challenge the all time highs on the indices will it feel bubble like. We're certainly going there, the Fed has made it clear. But for me, I'll hold off bubble talk until new all time highs.
Wanger, you dont see the bubble?
Millions unemployed, dollar is up, stocks up on crap, hell, 0 fundamentals.
What built the financials is our energy turned into product. There hardly any product, yet the financials are still in the stratosphere while industry is in the shitter.
Wanger you are betting on illusion
HarryWanger -- no bubble? Do you have no recollection of the past 10 years?
The heads of the Federal Reserve (Msrs. Greenspan AND Bernanke) have both testified they don't believe the low interest rate/high liquidity policies they've championed produce "bubbles." Both have also testified that bubbles are nearly impossible to identify contemporaneously.
Yet we have extensive empiracle data that shows how low rate/high liquidity yields economic malinvestment (in equities, in real estate, in speculative investments, etc.).
No bubble, huh? If you're right, then we should be furious with the Fed for not doing MORE to juice the economy, because we are underperforming our sustainable potential. But if you are wrong, then we face a catastrophic economic event on our horizon, as the resources and tools we've applied to mitigate the last crisis are used-up.
Good luck to you, sir.
People like HarryWanger, and several of the other commentators here, live in a world of continuous bliss (and you know what they say about "ignorance"?) and are forever blissfully unaware of why the banksters are fighting against any and all oversight and regulation on derivatives.
Since they derive the vast majority of their profits from the rigged and manipulated markets, and their rigged speculation of those markets, and they use the derivatives for the aforementioned, then they need to hold onto their tools, or weapons, of choice.
And, since 63% of the American GDP is made up of the top five banksters, who are "solvent" due to free monies and bailouts, were those derivatives to unravel, so would their entire fortunes unravel and...
Woe unto all those debt-financed billionaires....
I guess that depends on what your definition of bubble is. Valuations are not based on earnings or economic conditions which would increase earnings.
I think there is a bubble, caused by massivie manipulation (revoke of FASB, ZIRP, TARP and the rest)
I also think that the influence of these manipulations is massive and powerful, and shouldn't be taken lightly. It won't have a transient effect.
Sure its manipulation, sure its a scam. Sure the dollar is based on nothing but our collective agreement that its worth something, a castle in the clouds. Was wampum inherently valuable? Manipulation and human foibles has been a part of the economy since the beginning.
Does the scam make me angry? Yes. Do I like the government picking winners and losers? No. But just because I am now becoming aware of the scam doesn't mean the scam just started.
Soros is beginning to unnerve me. Behind the obvious and wise words I see a person not at all adverse to a heavy government hand in "regulating" the markets. It is all too easy to trace the "failure of the markets" as having occurred via the very controls that were suppose to prohibit the build up of instabilities.
Public policy is that which one games in regulatory arbitrage.
Are you saying this financial crisis would have happened even if they hadn't repealed Glass Steagall? That seems to be non-conventional thinking (which I find fascinating.) Please explain your position (without presupposing libertopia as the solution.)
"not at all adverse to a heavy government hand in "regulating" the markets."
recall georgie saying somewhere that what we need is not more regulation, but better regulation. not quite sure how he defines "better" though.
"Public policy is that which one games in regulatory arbitrage."
also recall georgie making that very same statement on more than one occasion.
"Behind the obvious and wise words"
ah yes...what's behind the curtain is always a worthy question to consider with anyone. however, in soro's case, it may not be what everyone thinks. it's quite possible that like many others, including brother volcker, ol' georgie got okie-doked.
i mean, he's really not speaking to us, is he? guess the whales will have to work out which current they want to travel between themselves this summer on bilderberg beach. but although whales can affect the currents in their immediate vicinity, they can't really control the direction the currents want to go, yes?
now in choosing between 2 currents and one group of whales decide to go one way or the other, do the school of little fish that swim behind the whales decide which current to travel based on the personality of the whales or by their feeling of which current will take them most safely & smoothly along their journey? and do they make that decision individually or collectively?
"We hope all those who are buying stocks have very tight stop loss triggers."
That should be exciting...
Where can I buy popcorn?
pop corn .. at new greed gecko wall street movie with mr douglas.
the warm up .. popcorn $7.50 all you can eat bag,, with liquid butter poured all over ,
top it off with 6.00 big gulp of coke light
p.s. ticket $12.00 bucks
Next crisis right around the corner. That's not to say we couldn't hit new highs on indexes, but the fall will be breathtaking
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmFhNPecAl8&feature=related
I think my britches are soiled.
Soooo, private credit gets replaced by sovereign credit... What replaces the sovereign credit?
I suppose the crap could roll uphill for a time (ie the Greek problem may become a German problem), but when the lenders of last resort can no longer -- or simply won't -- carry the burden, the larger and more dangerous sovereign debt bubble will burst.
Of course the governments of the world could turn to massive fiat currency expansion to further delay the inevitable, worsening the eventual fallout in the process.
On the whole I imagine the sovereign debt bubble could be deflated via treaties.
The "let's all agree to get along" solution.
I cannot imagine the mechanism, but the incentive well certainly be there. I give them 12 months to figure that part out. After, the window closes forever and the empire is gone.
I think the probelm with that is the U.S. is the one with its hand in everyone's cookie jars. If everyone defaults on these U.S. banks or even calls the debt fraudulent and null what then? I think the shoe is on the other hand for the banks now that they were once used to applying the leverage and now it has turned on them. Exactly why the Fed hired Enron's lobbyist/pr firm.
What replaces the sovereign credit?
Martian credit.
Martian Gold
The problem, Mr. Soros, is that underfunded pension funds are back at it, shovelling billions into hedge funds. In fact, hedge fund assets are back to pre-crisis levels. More hedge funds, more leverage, more market melt-ups and yes, eventually more market meltdowns. The name of the game is avoiding global deflation at all costs, first by reflating risk assets and then hopefully by introducing mild inflation in the economy. The problem is that record debt issuance will force rates higher, endangering Bubble Ben's master reflation plan.
NOTHING HAS CHANGED!
Except..
The Liquidity Pool is so very much deeper...
There are fewer players...
Back stop for the run... 0% Fed Window....
So really most things have changed... or, more of the same.... but more of it! thats mo betta!
I offer Leo...
*********** "
According to Towers Watson's analysis this means introducing a 20% tax charge on income that people with incomes above £43,875 a year save in pensions while continuing to tax them on the money they draw from these pensions in retirement.
The proposal is part of a tax reform package which Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has said he would "unwaveringly pursue" in the event of a hung Parliament." *************
http://www.professionalpensions.com/professional-pensions/news/1601218/lib-dems-tax-policy-drive-db-scheme-closures
You say (You being Leo), JW what do you mean... I say "Grid Lock" Leo... more of nothing, no change.. nothing but Lobby dollars being thrown around.
Be well Leo, JW
Leo, been looking 4 u, I have had an epiffany; lets ask China to dump some 60B (small change) of their toxic US treasuries on the Greece debtors in exchange for preferential shipping rates and the gratitude of all of Greece. Thinking about it, other than Japan and the US, CN could with their TB's bail out the rest of the world and still have too much!. Now all we need to do is find some more motivation. I see debt swaps coming. What ya think?
You don't regulate the markets. You regulate the players. A very, very different thing.
regulate or make visible?
even if delayed by a month, every transaction on every public exchange needs to be visible - every buy/sell/call/put/limit/stop (those that have fired), etc.
every one of them, with the owner's ID. then any shenanigans will be known. then, either everybody will join in any "games" (breaking the shenanigan value), or they will exit that market.
transparency. i think it's the *hidden* games that break the trust/market, not the player's choices.
when the market returns to a vehicle for *value* discovery and can be trusted as a "known", it might have a chance and attract value-driven players, not the manipulators that infest it today. til then, it is what it is...
of course, i've recently read stories of market players in the 30s doing the exact same coordinated pump/squeeze/dump/target-a-company games as are going on today, so i may just be completely oblivious, but what i *do* understand of markets and trust makes me not at all interested in the game, and if enough of us lose interest, there is no game.
(boo hoo, i think i'll take my ball and go home. you guys are so mean to me... :^)
Hey there i.knoknot
Make things visible????...you can't steal from the people in broad daylight...
Oh, Hank Paulson, Congress, $700 billion- Right now -or the kid gets it !!
Yeah, how could I forget that one...
sorry, back to my cave...
Kayman
I fully agree with you in principle (and principal), but what once may have been possible, is no longer.
Since those markets have been rigged and manipulated for far too long, and there are still too many who are blissfully ignorant of the direct connections, and correlations, between those rigged markets and unemployment and shrinking tax bases (e.g., rigged silver market by JP Morgan and companies -- which has screwed the jobs of silver miners and enriched certain JP Morgan traders and execs), there are truly no markets per se left to be regulated anyway.
A moot point....
Exactly so. Thus the situation must be that the regulatory apparatus has other intentions; regulating the markets gets the desired result.
Totally disagree. Markets are just people exchanging with each other. To regulate a market is to regulate people. People take positive actions. Markets without people are nothing. You need to think about this a little more.
you mean someone still believes banks didnt short each other to get free money from the government?
Look @ my charts. My guess is that the Top is in... Beware.
http://midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com/2010/04/dax-e-nasdaq100-em-pon...
Guess Soros must have his shorts in.
money first, then mouth
It will not take 8 years. This bubble is inflating much faster then the last one. ZeroHedge set Dow 36k price target for 331 days from now.... this cannot last another 8 years.
Copy that. Not even in a vacuum is it going to take eight years. He's just trying to put everyone back to sleep. We haven't even recoved yet! Even with a slow slide the USA is doomed to poverty/slavery. One could say, "Who gives a fuck. Things will only get worse from here on out anyway. I'm buying some damn goats."
correct me if i'm wrong, but isn't this the guy (soros) who said "gold is a bubble" a few months back, then bought more?
contrarian indicator?
You are correct. $633M of GLD. I hope he loses his shirt when GLD when physical delivery is demanded by the large GLD holders and the find no GOLD.
Heard he doubled up recently
So this clown games the system for a billion and now he is some kind of market sage? Fuck him and his shit heap NWO foundation. He knows dam well massive inflation led by rising food prices is just around the corner. He and his filthy ass clown elite tools are the ones pushing it. Any call he makes is for his own profit. Clearly he wants a better look at things before they take off. Don't fall for it!
'The distribution of price changes in a financial market scales.
Given that event X has happened, what are the odds that Y will happen next?
With financial prices, scaling means that the odds of a massive price movement given a large one are akin to those of a large movement given a merely sizable one. Such is the confusion of scaling. It makes decisions difficult, prediction perilous, and bubbles a certainty.'
-Benoit Mandelbrot
Soros is a NAZI.
George is not in the business of telling the public how to make money. He generates public interest and then trades against it. He has a long history of doing this. He's likely wildly bullish right now.
Bingo! And the prize of the day goes to jory !!!!!!
On target, good citizen! The masters rig the system to their benefit....as always.
Bingo! You Sir, are correct:
http://www.mffais.com/123750
As you can see, Soros Fund Management is very bullish on stocks!!!!
as of end of 1Q2010, you are correct leo. just remember we're 15 days into the new quarter.
looks like he's still taking a bath on monsanto (haha). also, this is an interesting new addition to the portfolio:
http://www.mffais.com/exxi
"Since the company’s IPO in October 2005, Energy XXI has implemented an “acquire and exploit” growth strategy to build a geographically focused portfolio with some of the highest per-unit margins in the industry."http://www.energyxxi.com/
check out the major holders of the stock and the island where it's incorporated.
Agree. He has positioned himself already and is performing his siren call charade (it is truthful but he himself is positioned against 'success' of treating what ails the systems) to the wolf pack to lead them to where he wants them.
I wouldn't believe anything that came out of Sorass's mouth.
This is one of the principle architects of the 527 group movement; he spends money to influence policy in spite of public will. Fuck him. The dude uses his money to manufacture and repeat lies.
I just agreed with everything you said.
+100
Call me a cynic but I don't buy that his British Pound short that he is renowned for, was done without prior knowlegde that the government would de-value. In other words the fix was in or he ''fixed it".
Anything that has growth over any reasonable level, can be construed as having bubble possibilities.
Soro's said gold is a bubble, which is true. Anytime the herd starts ramping in, thus ramping up an imaginary value, then you betcha, you got something bubbly happening.
So if you retire, after a stock rally, and try to live off interest, please tell me how that's going for ya. Big deal you have a paper profit, as an investor. This ZIRP policy is making your interest returns barely enuff to buy cat food.
In the theme of zero hedge, I will have to go to zero cats, shortly.
The Queen's drug pusher Soros is attempting his hand at being 'Master of the Obvious' warns of a big market crash?
No doubt his ideas will then move to 'austerity will prevent it'. (more like his losses that will still lose in the end)
Whenever you hear of 'tough choices' that's bankers speak for "we're about to screw you some more for our benefit and definitely not in any way yours".
It sounds like Old Man Soros (the current owner of the Democratic Party) is on the sidelines with too much cash... under-invested yet again Ol'Boy...!
Maybe you can ask your minions at the Bank of England for some insider favours... yet again.
His living purgatory is that he can sleep only 3 hours per night because his soul hurts from being so corrupt.
Hey Ol'George... kinda no fun making money the way you did, huh...?
But, what do I know... I am just a Dick Weed.
he is starting to bear a resemblence to emperor palpatine isn't he?
http://www.daylife.com/photo/07VV8cmb6UdNV?q=George+Soros
http://www.daylife.com/photo/00FX8IhaZBbXt?q=George+Soros
yeah he is evil, you can see it
I would not trust one word from his mouth
he said gold was in abubble
it promptly fell then it went staright back up
Looks like he wants to buy stocks but they are too expensive for him
The trick is to get the bubble to burst on someone else's watch.
As I recall, Soros simply said Gold was in a bubble and made no reference to a "crash" in gold prices. By contrast, he is calling for a "crash" in equities which is surely coming but the crash might be as measured against gold - i.e. gold $10,000 - Dow 12,000.
Hmmm, ya think that with no real systemic changes, no meaningful restrictions on leverage, free cash and a taxpayer back stop we are in for another bubble?
OK history may not repeat itself, but this situation seems to rhyme with the 1907 financial panic....after that the market bounced around for almost 20 years before the 1929 peak. Then it was JP Morgan supported the system, now we have Uncle Sam using someone else's money, yours. Add political motivation and this could get ugly. My guess is it will take a while but the super bubble is coming.
The system was reflated but the debt burden won't be tackled. Don't worry about 20 yrs. This should be over in about 2 or 3. Hello rioting in the streets, from San Fran to Kyrgzystan...
I am trying to understand and simplify the Fed market psycho strategy.
Tactic 1 Create/Borrow money to reflate assets that were over inflated by debt > consumers feel more wealthy = save less + spend more = GDP increase.
Tactic 2 Flood markets with liquidity to (re)inflate commodities > higher consumer prices + Tactic 1 = GDP increase.
GDP growth is good right?
Odd that my grandfather with a decent middle class job could support three kids, one wife, two lovers, a house in SF, a vacation home equipped with toys and died with no debt.
Now my harvard MBA friend and his harvard MBA wife are leveraged to the eyeballs for a decent house in SF, they will have to move so the kids can go to a good school and I have to pay for his strippers.
I say bring on deflation, bankers may lose, but everyone else may get richer. (short term pain may be applied)
Nothing odd at all.
Spatial segmentation is the word.
Once you start to invest matter/energy to transform a piece of land to accomodate to human life, the price to live on it increases.
Between your grand father's time and our Harvard friends', the US has topped the world nations ranking in terms of bringing matter/energy to its soil to transform the environment, increasing the price to live on it.
Breaking wealth through debasement of currency, deflation or stuff never worked. Will never work.
Because the reality is here: the US has kept investing matter/energy on its soil, which has considerably enriched its own turf sector, making it more and more pricey to live on it.
Your Harvard friends should take a look around: in the US, there are environments for every income brackets, people living among their peers.
True at cities level. True at state level. True at nation level. Should not be true at world level?
Just as in the US, there have been environments for poor people, blue collars, white collars, rich people, in the world, there are more and more countries for poor people, blue collars, white collars and rich people.
And the US is to be only for the rich people. And their servants of course.
Speculators were blamed in the great depression. Those who make money in downturns are always the scapegoat.
The only reason they make profits is due to the horrendous decision making and policies of fools.
Not true. The other reason they 'make' profits, is because they literally make profits. They arrange things to happen a certain way, like the Bank of England did for Soros' short position. Like Lord Blankfein does giving orders to Timmay and Ben. Or Jamie Dimon does to the Bamster.
8 years before the next "crisis"? ROFLMAO! This may not even last 8 more hours.
"This may not even last 8 more hours...".
I've been thinking the same thing every day for the past 5 years. Do not underestimate the TPTB and their ability to defy gravity indefinitely...
ja, it sucks when "the markets can be irrational for longer than you can be solvent"...
i'm with you... dam these guys have some good viagra.
I think that the actions by sovereigns and the institutions that they have not only created, but supposedly rule over reflect the present condition that whatever these sovereigns have been using as Viagra is rapidly losing its punch.
The headline should have read:
"Soros finished shoring up gold position, anxious to collect on investment."
rare insight
It is likely not in the interest of the US government for pension funds to remain underfunded, or for taxpayers to have too little income to be taxed. Hence the willingness to "donate" cheap money to the "Save The Stock Market" cause.
Besides, my QQQQ 20-week signal remains firmly positive.
Soros just got his subscription to EWI and he started reading Prechter's Conquer the Crash.
Don't listen to what they say, watch what he does. Just like he said gold was in a bubble and then started increasing his gold holdings. Actions speak louder than words.
pretty much bingo, same as current administration: watch the other hand...
So we will have a superbubble for about the next 8 years, after which the world as we know it will end. However, for some people it will end making them rich or even richer, Soros being one of them, of course.
Sounds like idiot proof investment advice. Unless is not going to play out that way, of course.
Soros obviously right: whenever is the time to pay the bill..someone has to pay the bill.
Any kind of bubbles in history has a simple name: carry-trade. And the one going on now is a monster involving US, Japan and Europe directly, plus the rest of the World indirectly.
Seems to me the "old vampire" set an obvious but unquestionable truth: the reflation game cannot work this time again. If this going to happen in 1 month or 10 years is just a matter of reading the crystal ball.
Yeah, but the time to pay the bill is always tomorrow.
Soros's "book" changes all the time. He's a trader, not a Warren Buffett.
He wants to be remembered as a philosopher, a deep thinker, not just a rich guy.
Thus I believe his grand sweeping statements, though there is no time frame, thus no contradiction between being long now and planning for a crash later.
Same for his views on gold. He stated clearly that the best way to make money was to get in on the early stages of a bubble.
damn good diagnosis, doc.
There will be no double dip in this depression. The only thing that ever rebounded was the price of risk assets.
Soros doesn't matter in this bubble and his advice is no better than anyone else's. He bet big on Lehman Bros, for example, so the guy obviously can't see the future. What matters most is that the criminal Bernanke refuses to prick bubbles. He's smart and obviously sees them. They have a few hundred economists telling them the relative price of financial assets to incomes around the world.
Thats great. Soros is just another man with an opinion.. Wait!! Wait!!, Im receiving a message from the other side. This just in from The Amazing Criswell speaking from the grave... " I predict, Dow will hit 36,000 and Bidu will hit 26,000 a share. I am Criswell, I know all"
1. gimme a decent weather forecast 7 days out, after that we'll talk about market forecasts.
2. "another bigger crash" is like saying "another bigger earthquake." Unless you can estimate where and when, utility is pretty low. "another bigger girlfriend," now that's much more useful to know...
3. now my Principal Universal Descriptor (my PUD) looks like something simple, on the order of y=x+x(sin(x))+c, but x, usually time, isn't linear. I'm sure George already knows that. I contemplate my pud a lot these days.
--rq
Agree: unless you cannot estimate the time this to happen, utility is close to zero.
I believe if you can make a good call on the time required to Greece to declare its debt officially defaulted and/or Spain to join the "defaulting party", you may have a nice estimate of the starting time of next financial crisis. Money are quickly moving from all around the world into Switzerland again, Asian tigers included: the smart guys have started to protect their savings already!!
RE: "...It is a virtual impossibility that the money printer of even what may still be considered the reserve currency (although that distinction is rapidly shifting back to gold once again) can withhold a multi-trillion issuance onslaught and a multi-trillion corporate/CRE refi wave with 10 Years at under 4%. The next crisis will, as Soros points out, begin in the sovereign debt arena..."
In a world that makes sense and is predictable,
I would concur. However, we have entered a new
place viz reality. Watch the Star Trek episode
entitled, SPECTRE OF THE GUN. We live in world
in which our perception of what is 'real' has been
altered...in particular by the existence of fiat
currencies. The men-behind-the-curtain at the
FED do NOT believe that debt-issuance is a real
issue. THEY BELIEVE that we're simply shifting
numbers from reserve accounts to interest-bearing
accounts. The printer will not cease, and the world
will not, at least for years and years to come, do
anything about it.
I pointed out that the validity of Soros (and thus his comments) is no better or worse than GS. So it's the information that's important, not the speaker. In an article highlighting Soros's comments, what is the purpose of attacking Soros except to diminish his comments. On a web site/blog whose only purpose is to disseminate information, the first comment under the article ignores the information and attacks the information speaker. And my tone is bad because I ask the poster the purpose of the attack?
cheap christian bernard watch|HP2-Q04|70-630|pandora jewelry
I have to admit that I have never heard about this information I have noticed many new facts for me. Thanks a lot for sharing this useful and attractive information and I will be waiting for other interesting posts from you in the nearest future.keep it up. online car insurance