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German IFO Business Survey Climbs To Fresh Records

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Germany (i.e., Europe) sure is milking the one-time destruction of its currency this past year for as long as it can. To wit: the just released IFO Business Survey in January continues to reach to all time highs, on the back of a one-time export renaissance. Of course, now that the euro is so tremendously volatile, and little in terms of trade effect can be projected based on daily 200+ bps gyrations in the currency, expect confidence to continue to surge until, just like a high beta stock, it plunges upon the realization that it is time to kill the euro once again, and resume the "Greece is getting expelled any day now" rumors.

From Goldman Sachs:

    * The Ifo index defied our expectations of a minor easing, and pushed higher in January to another record high reading of 110.3.
      
    * The assessment of current conditions was broadly stable at 112.8, while business expectations increased to 107.8 after 106.8.

The Ifo was already at record highs in December, so this month's gain comes as yet another welcome surprise. The continuing improvement in the forward-looking expectations component also suggests that this momentum should not be letting up anytime soon. The sectoral breakdown of the current conditions index was more mixed, however, as sentiment in the wholesale and retail trade sectors suffered a modest setback (likely due to the bad weather over the past month), while manufacturing and construction sentiment continued to improve.

As we have previously emphasized, these record high headline index levels must be kept in perspective -- the index fell precipitously during the course of the recession and with the V-shaped rebound that has followed, it is natural for there to be some overshooting before the index settles back to some longer-term average. While this makes it difficult to translate the monthly numbers into some implicit GDP growth rate, as far as momentum goes, it seems that there has been no let down at the beginning of 2011, and that the economy is on track to record another strong expansion in Q1.

 

 

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Fri, 01/21/2011 - 08:34 | 892784 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Normal,

German Banks Stress Test are all false....

Just look Commerzbank Debt.....

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 08:42 | 892798 BRAVO 7
BRAVO 7's picture

engineered euro collapse and dollar collapse at the door, disregard this warning to your own peril .

heard a radio broadcast last friday the 14th. the host's name is rick
wiles
. his website is trunews.com  he has been on the air for 11 yrs.
with useful news.
he hosted 3 other men on a telephone hookup. long story short they had
inside info of the planned collapse of the dollar, repeat, it will not
be a natural event  the euro would also collapse > sarkozy just left
d.c. after a meeting with obama  > hu jintao is visiting d.c. now and
berating the dollar's reserve status >  g 20 will meet this spring in
march, versailles, france to finalize the collapse  > new reserve
currency
to be introduced between march and july 2011 > it was decided
in june 2009 to dump the dollar  > obama's personal rep. has been
traveling for the last year and 1/2 in negotiations with the usual
suspects.
  as you can tell this will cause much chaos and mayhem around the
planet, will undoubtedly cause a great shock to the united states.
you could probably get a telephone interview with rick wiles, for
verification.
i will be doing my best to get this info out on some respectable
websites,to the hapless sheeple of america, maybe some will hearken.
thanks for your efforts.
rick's  # 561-792-6777 USA

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 08:44 | 892799 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Tyler,

LOL!  Cities declaring bankruptcy, and maybe states declaring bankruptcy, and the Euro being a tramp ready to be put on the ash heap of history...and Blight on America bank misses...and I have not even had my coffee yet.  You kill me, man.

And the Futures...OMG...the are up!  Curious.  Maybe if you would just do a story about how the dead have risen and are eating people's brains...we could really get this puppy moving?

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 08:50 | 892806 youngman
youngman's picture

gold and silver down too....look at that M2 chart....that is enough for me...lots of very wierd things going on right now....its OK for Greece to default now....its out there and no one cares..they are just going to raise the bailout funds.....interest rates jumping on USA debt..its okay....the Bernake will just buy the long end now..inflation in food and oil....well they can´t do anything about this...so its kept quiet..but Kellogg´s increased prices 6%.....big stuff....but no one cares right now...its like the cows just walking into the slaughter house....calmly

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 08:45 | 892801 belogical
belogical's picture

You gotta love surveys they always tell you exactly what is going on

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 10:23 | 892968 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Surveys are so.....so Hopiumastic! Uber!

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 08:49 | 892805 tim73
tim73's picture

"Germany (i.e., Europe) sure is milking the one-time destruction of its currency this past year for as long as it can."

Now I get it! When USA was booming, it was all about American Innovation Machine, superdynamic economy and bright brains but when Germany is doing the same, it must be because they are cruel bastards and blitzkrieging the rest of Europe once again! I can hear the dive siren of Stukas already!

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 09:00 | 892820 Racer
Racer's picture

German BGA trade association sees inflation rising to 4 to 6% by 2013 fuelled by commodity prices and liquidity!!

 

Hang on to your hats, ZimBen and the Genocidal Inkjets creates Weimar World

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 09:15 | 892841 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Very interesting German action here in India.

VW, Skoda and BMW have launched a slew of new vehicles. Te X1 is actually affordable (!!!) for many IT types. 5 years ago, a owning a BMW in india was an absolute luxury and unreachable for most.

Skodas similarly. VW is selling Phaetons, Benz is selling Maybachs....

Totally strange. of course the Euro has weakened hugely against the rupee in the last 9 months or so. European retail is making huge inroads and actually being price competitive.

That is one aspect of the story right there.

 

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/21/accidental-lives/

 

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