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Germany Again Openly Opposes IMF, Says Will Not Extend European Bail Out Facility Beyond 2013

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the euro surging, it was only a matter of time before the rickety house of European cards was put on full display once again. Sure enough, not 24 hours after the EURUSD hit a "German export industry suicidal" 1.34, here comes Germany's FinMin Schaeuble, who has said that if the IMF/EU hope to extend the duration of the European Bail Out Facility beyond 2013, they have another thing coming. As a reminder, Reuters reported a few days ago that "Greece's international lenders assured investors this week that they would not abandon Athens at the end of a 3-year bailout plan if it fulfilled tough reforms but failed to regain market trust." Additionally, Greek newspaper Ta Nea reported over the weekend that EU officials are considering an extension of the aid package for Greece beyond the agreed three years, due to fears that the country’s economy will not have sufficiently recovered by 2013. The reason - in 2013 Greek public debt is expected to hit its peak of 150% of GDP, a level far higher than where it is now. Regardless, it seems that Germany is once again sowing the seeds for the next crisis, as the ECB is unable to go "full retard" with QE.X right now as that would destroy the credibility of recent lies that Europe was doing oh so well (and as we are expecting a tide of European GDP revisions lower, Italy just announced a few hours back that its GDP would not meet a previous target of 1.5% as previously disclosed). In other words, the next step in the devaluation race will be out of Europe, possibly accompanied by the provisional semi-ejection of the PIIGS from the Eurozone just to make the point that not only Bernanke is a middle-class destroyer.

More from Market News:

Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble Wednesday reaffirmed that Germany will oppose any attempt to prolong the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) beyond 2013.

"Anyone who believes that the EFSF will be prolonged beyond three years is putting our trustworthiness at risk," Schaeuble said in a speech here. "We cannot do that."

Rather, the time between now and 2013 needs to be used "to create better solutions for the euro," the Minister said. "Otherwise, it will be difficult to defend the stability of the euro," he warned.

The E440 billion EFSF was created earlier this year by EU leaders to mollify markets at the height of the Eurozone's sovereign debt crisis. It would provide emergency loans to EMU states that get into financial trouble and have no other recourse. Along with a pre-existing fund of E60 billion and another E250 billion pledged by the International Monetary Fund, the total available for that purpose would be E750 billion.

Alas this seems to blatantly contradict what the IMF said earlier:

EU, IMF and ECB officials accompanied Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou on a two-day roadshow in London, Paris and Frankfurt this week to meet investors and persuade them of Greece's commitment to meet debt reduction targets.

A source close to the roadshow said that when
asked what would happen after 3 years if Greece fully met EU/IMF demands
to slash its deficit but failed to convince markets, the international
officials told investors: "In that situation we would not walk away from
Greece, we would not abandon them."

Since it is now obvious that nobody buys Greece unbelievable daily horseshit, and the country was forced to cancel its bond offering, we wonder just how the IMF will difuse this latest incursion by Germany into what was otherwise a nice zombie slumber for the PIIGSy region. Keep in mind, a persistent EUR at current levels means about 2% of GDP loss for Germany. And Germany will not take it.

 

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Wed, 09/22/2010 - 13:59 | 597788 SDRII
SDRII's picture

After US argued that Europe should take the hit at the IMF voting in favor of China Germany spit back with the US should relinquesh its veto. Got German gold

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fd046b4c-c022-11df-b77d-00144feab49a.html

 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:00 | 597789 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

Nordic Euro bitchez!

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:18 | 597848 zaknick
zaknick's picture

ditto

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:37 | 597919 knukles
knukles's picture

otto (sp)

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:40 | 597925 Young
Young's picture

Definately, or why not call it a crownmark... Finland, Germany used to have marks, the rest crowns.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:44 | 597940 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Yeah. I can envisage EU countries queuing up to take part in another currency union after this one fails in a spectacular fashion.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:00 | 597791 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

It's a house of cards. Just waiting for a few people to jump ship. Why would Ireland borrow at 6% to loan Greece money at 5%? How can you borrow at 6% and grow at 1-2% (if that) and hope to exit your debt spiral. Competitive devaluations. Rising local tensions. Protectionism. Uh oh...

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:05 | 597797 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

They'll calm down in the morning when they realise that pulling the plug will result in a massively stronger currency for Germany.

You have to think like a German: "We are the greatest. We will not help you puny lesser peoples. Oh, wait. It's in our best interest? Oh. In that case, you need to know that you owe us for this."

For ze Germans, zenophobia comes before self interest.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:17 | 598967 Pope Clement
Pope Clement's picture

E.G. Spoken like a real unter douchebag...

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:03 | 597803 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

It's freaking Bugs Bunny

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:18 | 597851 edotabin
edotabin's picture

Bugs and the whole Looney Tunes cast!

The only one missing is Porky who used to say "That's all folks!"

Can't believe people go to school for years to study this hogwash.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:12 | 597832 Captain Queeg
Captain Queeg's picture

Why do I have a feeling that the Lithium ETF ad on the ZH home page is not random?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:15 | 597841 Cvillian
Cvillian's picture

Informative article from Morgan Stanley that was recently highlighted by John Maudlin regarding the inaccuracies of looking at Debt/GDP ratios. Warning: it doesn't look better this way.

 

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2010/09/20/sovereign-subjects-ask-not-whether-governments-will-default-but-how.aspx

 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:18 | 597850 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

FX move via comments. the FX war has begin...noone wants their currency to spike since all are competing for the attention of emerging market populace wallets. this will not be pretty in the end.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:23 | 597867 hugolp
hugolp's picture

Its all a theater. The European Union governments are not cutting back deficit nor spending.

In reality, all this show is aimed at german population. They (understandably) dont want to pay for the PIGS bubbles, so the german government talks like if its being tough. But in reality they are inflating away.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:53 | 598426 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

This is especially true given the likelihood of total destruction come 2012, rendering the next year moot, as far as planning goes.

Never underestimate the power of a self-fulfilling prophecy (because they all are).

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:31 | 597898 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

The IMF is the USA Federal Reserve 'in drag'. Period! Germany knows this of course.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:33 | 597907 CheapKUNGFU
CheapKUNGFU's picture

Ummm, isn't that what they said last time before they turned around and bent over?

Time to STFU and bend over again Germany (nobody takes you seriously anymore), this time the IMF will give you a cigarrette aftrewards...

 

CKF

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:42 | 599000 Pope Clement
Pope Clement's picture

Hey LowRentConfucius don't confuse a bit of can't we just get along licking of the balls to weakness. Our Teuton bros and hos are quite capable of doing a Valkyrie ride when pissed off enough that would definitely get your attention...

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 22:36 | 599065 Uncle Sugar
Uncle Sugar's picture

When the time comes, The Fed will open the credit window for Greece, Ireland etc.  They may do it indirectly via the ECB, but make no mistake, The Fed will do everything possible to keep the balls in the air.  Shit, it's not even real paper we're talking about.  Just a few keystrokes on a computer in Manhattan.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:36 | 597917 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh, I know it sounds just so politically incorrect, but the European stereo-types seem to prevail, what with the Greeks demanding additional financial resources fro the rest of the world after not paying taxes, cooking their books and not working for a living whilst the industrious, fastidious, thrifty German burghers say; "Fuck you."  Hell, even Fidel saying that the Cuban experiment has failed.

Ah, the revoltof the welfare enablers.  So very much Tea Partyish happening planet wide. 

Nothing quite like a ringside seat to the very destruction of modern civilisation.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:48 | 597952 redpill
redpill's picture

So, looks like it takes central banking about 100 years to eventually snowball and cause the collapse of "enlightened" economies.  I wonder how long it'll hang out in hospice before it finally kicks off.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 15:55 | 598209 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

whilst the industrious, fastidious, thrifty German burghers say; "Fuck you."

Thanks for pointing this out. I am going to bed blissfully.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 14:55 | 597974 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

So in 2013, the market will drop like it did the last time these nancy boys made this declaration. Then they'll back down again and the markets will rejoice. Great when you can see into the future.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 15:12 | 598046 Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

Bang on there Harry old boy,extend and pretend all the way.Individual German politicians can let off steam from time to time at the unpleasant reality of having to pay to keep the poor relations from being ejected from the Eurozone,but it is soon forgotten,the ECB buys the countries freshly printed bonds with freshly printed Euros as if they were backed by anything other than hot air and then denies to the world that it is quantitive easing and is absolutely commited to controlling inflation.It will,like the US Feds operations,continue until it doesn't.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 15:23 | 598091 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

When will the Arch-Duke be visiting Serbia?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:04 | 598241 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

when will Napoleon arrive in......

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:02 | 598233 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

this is easily "The Story."  to arbirtrage or not to arbirtrage, that is the question.  the insanity that is the euro which is now "collapsing and soaring" like an "uber-ball" is certainly confirming why the "risk trade" (as in hoarding Treasuries and gold) are "full on."  a possible trade war between China and Japan???!!!!  this is STILL the "Year of Living Dangerously" with a spectacular rally in the debt and commodity markets "papering over" some very real and materially significant "social dislocations."  with seemingly the entire Obama administration (at least Arnie Duncan is still there i guess) fleeing for their lives how much longer before the media itself finally starts to "squawk"?  i think not long at all now.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:53 | 598422 Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

It would seem that denial runs deep through the German psyche. How else can one explain the political harsh talk vs the PIIGS to satisfy the electorate's concerns over wasting money on things they didn't do; while pumping more billions recently into the artist formerly known as Hypo Real Estate ?

A large chunk of the antiquated, 3 tier German banking system is insolvent. Perhaps this explains it, the Germans know they need all the money for their domestic issues.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 18:51 | 598712 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Why wait 'til 2013? End the bailouts NOW!

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:30 | 598886 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Germany really really want to be out of this mess.  They and many know that Greece should be kicked out, but the ramifications are hard on the Euro and the many of the countries banks.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 00:02 | 599178 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

I agree and most likely they will be the first ones out if they decide to make that decision. The euro is fragile and at a generational level there is no strong support. And if the German population think they are being screwed they will react. And their economy is strong. I used to work with some people in the EU - people in Germany are doing well (well enough to talk to me about some opportunities), people in London are floating and the people I used to work with in Ireland are *ucked.

Story about my brother-in-law's father (born in Germany). He went up to the cottage by himself to do some work (which I actually think is stupid). He was operating a power saw and severed 4 out 5 fingers (but they were hanging on by some ligaments or muscles. So he got in the boat (lake access only) and drove the miles to where his car was parked and then drove around 50 miles to an Ontario medical centre (the Quebec medical centre would have been closer so I think he made another dumb decision there).

All this - don't under-estimate the German folks - they have a history and are not afraid of making waves. And I do agree that they want to be out of this mess.

 

 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 23:27 | 599134 Arkadaba
Thu, 09/23/2010 - 04:54 | 599352 boogey_bank
boogey_bank's picture

Pls help me exploring the pervert mind of chancellor Merkel.

When eur/usd is going north of 1.34 she starts screaming about of piigs sinking the UE. Why she shut up when eur/usd is at 1.18?

Maybe she only wants ecb starts QEII... The best vicious PIIgs' ally is the german manufactoring conpanies association.

And I don't but the nordic euro story.

What should do Merkel in 2012 with Nord_eur/usd at 3.00? Maybe putting four Continental tyres under Germany and trying to roll the nation in the middle of the Mediterranean sea?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:23 | 599450 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Short signals detected yesterday have now increased.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Sat, 09/25/2010 - 23:05 | 605025 CL1
CL1's picture

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