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Get Your Weekly Charts Here

Tyler Durden's picture





 

If anyone still cares about the equity market, here is a pretty good summary of what the computers did this week, courtesy of the holidaypartyless folks at Manhattan's southernmost skyscraper (something tells us the elves, contrary to disclosed information, will be there, and we will be whereever the elves are).

Performance

S&P 500 rose 2% this week, with large cap stocks outperforming small cap stocks by more than 200 bps. Materials was the best performing sector, rising 4.2%. Energy fell 50 bps as the oil price faltered. Our 2009 year-end price target of 1060 implies 2.5% downside from current levels.

S&P 500 earnings

Our top-down EPS forecasts of $52 and $75 for 2009 and 2010 reflect +5% and +45% growth, respectively. Our pre-provision and write-down EPS forecasts are $69 for 2009 and $81 for 2010. Bottom-up consensus forecasts a 15% increase in 2009 to $57, and a 36% increase in 2010 to $77.

Valuation

Top-down, the S&P 500 trades at an NTM P/E of 15.3X (13.8X on pre-provision EPS). Bottom-up, it trades at NTM P/E of 14.7X and LTM P/B of 2.3X.

 

Size and style

Large-cap (S&P 500) outperformed small-cap (Russell 2000) by 212 bp over the past week and has outperformed by 523 bp ytd. Large-cap stocks outperformed small cap stocks in all ten sectors of the market.

US Portfolio Strategy baskets

We highlight our Dividend Growth basket <GSTHDIVG> which has outperformed the S&P 500 by approx 3% since mid-October after a long stretch of underperformance. GSTHDIVG consists of 34 S&P 500 stocks expected to raise their dividends in 2009-2010 and that have a higher dividend yield than S&P 500. Long-dated dividend swaps offer the most upside  (see Exhibit 4).

S&P 500 stock performance this week

Leaders: AMD, JDSU, PCLN, DOW, WYNN.

Laggards: SUN, TSO, MBI, ZION, AIG.

Full charts:

 

 


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Fri, 11/13/2009 - 17:25 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

we would expect no less.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 17:26 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

Thank you TD.

I would love to see some Meredith updates.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 17:38 | Link to Comment etrader
etrader's picture

Thx again TD :-)

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 17:47 | Link to Comment digalert
digalert's picture

"summary of what the computers did this week"

Tyler you have a way with words...

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 17:47 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

So there you have it.... 'year-end price target of 1060 implies 2.5% downside from current levels.'

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 17:59 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Buy now or be priced out forever.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 18:05 | Link to Comment reading
reading's picture

Question, could someone decipher the headline from ransquawk on the right...

Vivendi (VIV FP) buys 37.9% of GVT of Brazil and has irrevocable options to buy additional 19.6% stake

I realize we live in strange times, but exactly what did they buy?

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 18:06 | Link to Comment reading
reading's picture

Ok, never mind...I thought the GVT had a "O" in it...literally, I think I've gone nuts...

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 18:34 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Trash.

I wouldn't believe anything the Squid says, but that's just my opinion.

I would look here for some truth about the markets (video updated 11/13) and he's funny too:

http://maxkeiser.com/

 

 

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 18:27 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 11/13/2009 - 18:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 11/13/2009 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Sec.NotSure
Sec.NotSure's picture

OT: Rub eyes, did I acutally just see MSM post some actual truth on their home page? WTF.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33863804/ns/business-the_big_money//

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 18:56 | Link to Comment Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

19 pages of graphs, charts and blabber could have been reduce to "the pump is on and it will continue to be on."

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 19:13 | Link to Comment Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

Performance

S&P 500 rose 2% this week, with large cap stocks outperforming small cap stocks by more than 200 bps.

________

Awesome! At this rate, we'll be making new all-time highs by springtime.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 19:16 | Link to Comment Mr.Kowalski
Mr.Kowalski's picture

Does anybody have a link to where I can find the credit default swaps on sovereign debt ?? Thanks

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 19:27 | Link to Comment tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Thanks for sharing Goldman Sachs weekly Racing Form. Is this the Racing Form with false tips for little guys and retail investors, or the Racing Form for Goldman Sachs wealthy clients who get tipped off days or weeks before the horse race, or is this the Racing Form for Goldman Sachs trading desk who get tipped off days or weeks before wealthy clients?

I'm confused. I'll stick to the clear, honest Daily Racing Form from America's Turf Authority Since 1894 at:

http://www.drf.com/

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 11/13/2009 - 21:44 | Link to Comment Edna R. Rider
Edna R. Rider's picture

My favorite news story from CNBC.com.  "AIG...sees its stock zoom back."  Uh, OK, so it's now $1.80 (considering the reverse 20 to 1 split).  Really kickin' it, huh.

Sat, 11/14/2009 - 03:18 | Link to Comment graspthemarket
graspthemarket's picture

Goldman Sachs does the work of God everyone knows that.

Sat, 11/14/2009 - 06:49 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

I'm still expecting a significant USD rally when the bear market rally in equities finishes.

And the DOW bearish rising wedge lines on the daily chart are converging ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

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