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Get Your Weekly Charts Here
If anyone still cares about the equity market, here is a pretty good summary of what the computers did this week, courtesy of the holidaypartyless folks at Manhattan's southernmost skyscraper (something tells us the elves, contrary to disclosed information, will be there, and we will be whereever the elves are).
Performance
S&P 500 rose 2% this week, with large cap stocks outperforming small cap stocks by more than 200 bps. Materials was the best performing sector, rising 4.2%. Energy fell 50 bps as the oil price faltered. Our 2009 year-end price target of 1060 implies 2.5% downside from current levels.
S&P 500 earnings
Our top-down EPS forecasts of $52 and $75 for 2009 and 2010 reflect +5% and +45% growth, respectively. Our pre-provision and write-down EPS forecasts are $69 for 2009 and $81 for 2010. Bottom-up consensus forecasts a 15% increase in 2009 to $57, and a 36% increase in 2010 to $77.
Valuation
Top-down, the S&P 500 trades at an NTM P/E of 15.3X (13.8X on pre-provision EPS). Bottom-up, it trades at NTM P/E of 14.7X and LTM P/B of 2.3X.
Size and style
Large-cap (S&P 500) outperformed small-cap (Russell 2000) by 212 bp over the past week and has outperformed by 523 bp ytd. Large-cap stocks outperformed small cap stocks in all ten sectors of the market.
US Portfolio Strategy baskets
We highlight our Dividend Growth basket <GSTHDIVG> which has outperformed the S&P 500 by approx 3% since mid-October after a long stretch of underperformance. GSTHDIVG consists of 34 S&P 500 stocks expected to raise their dividends in 2009-2010 and that have a higher dividend yield than S&P 500. Long-dated dividend swaps offer the most upside (see Exhibit 4).
S&P 500 stock performance this week
Leaders: AMD, JDSU, PCLN, DOW, WYNN.
Laggards: SUN, TSO, MBI, ZION, AIG.
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we would expect no less.
Thank you TD.
I would love to see some Meredith updates.
Thx again TD :-)
"summary of what the computers did this week"
Tyler you have a way with words...
So there you have it.... 'year-end price target of 1060 implies 2.5% downside from current levels.'
Buy now or be priced out forever.
Question, could someone decipher the headline from ransquawk on the right...
I realize we live in strange times, but exactly what did they buy?
Ok, never mind...I thought the GVT had a "O" in it...literally, I think I've gone nuts...
Trash.
I wouldn't believe anything the Squid says, but that's just my opinion.
I would look here for some truth about the markets (video updated 11/13) and he's funny too:
http://maxkeiser.com/
Wondering if there are any updates from Bridgewater?
Ok, seriously, what's a retail investor supposed to do? Besides hoard rice and beans, I mean.
OT: Rub eyes, did I acutally just see MSM post some actual truth on their home page? WTF.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33863804/ns/business-the_big_money//
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
19 pages of graphs, charts and blabber could have been reduce to "the pump is on and it will continue to be on."
Performance
S&P 500 rose 2% this week, with large cap stocks outperforming small cap stocks by more than 200 bps.
________
Awesome! At this rate, we'll be making new all-time highs by springtime.
Does anybody have a link to where I can find the credit default swaps on sovereign debt ?? Thanks
Thanks for sharing Goldman Sachs weekly Racing Form. Is this the Racing Form with false tips for little guys and retail investors, or the Racing Form for Goldman Sachs wealthy clients who get tipped off days or weeks before the horse race, or is this the Racing Form for Goldman Sachs trading desk who get tipped off days or weeks before wealthy clients?
I'm confused. I'll stick to the clear, honest Daily Racing Form from America's Turf Authority Since 1894 at:
http://www.drf.com/
Goldman reminds me of a dope dealer with the DEA at the door and a broken toilet handle.
The pump is on, buy REIT's, buy REIT's buy REIT's more stimulus please!
What Paulson pulled off in a world of hot money and low unenployment, won't happen again in at least my lifetime.
My favorite news story from CNBC.com. "AIG...sees its stock zoom back." Uh, OK, so it's now $1.80 (considering the reverse 20 to 1 split). Really kickin' it, huh.
Goldman Sachs does the work of God everyone knows that.
I'm still expecting a significant USD rally when the bear market rally in equities finishes.
And the DOW bearish rising wedge lines on the daily chart are converging ...
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0