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    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

Gleacher Head Of Rates Shares A Very Bearish Outlook On Treasurys

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Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:23 | 1118121 TaxEstate
TaxEstate's picture

Just another reason to continue melting the stock market up. No reason to buy bonds, no incentive to buy Cd's or put into a MM fund, real estate is still crap... That only leaves the circle jerk that is the speculation in stocks and commodities... Way to go, Bernanke.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 16:48 | 1118807 Highrev
Highrev's picture

Now if only the Fed can just get the rest of the world to play along.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:25 | 1118131 edwardscpa
edwardscpa's picture

That last paragraph just struck a chord with me.    BTFD I guess.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:35 | 1118164 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture


Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:32 | 1118157 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

Why the fuck haven't treasuries meaningfully sold off?

Fed or no fed. 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 15:42 | 1118486 Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

Treasuries haven't and probably won't sell off much...remember, they're the talles midget in the room.



Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:38 | 1118171 truont
truont's picture

[Equities] are the new risk free assets not industrialized trashed sovereign rate markets.


Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:52 | 1118247 Boston
Boston's picture

He's right, but not in the immediate short-term, ie. the next 60-90 days when QE2 winds down.

In 2010, when QE1 ended, the funds freed up from the sale of risk assets  flocked into Treasuries.  There's no reason why the same thing won't happen this time.  Where else can hundreds of billions of dollars go, quickly and efficiently?

Later, when the Fed steps in with QE3, the reverse will happen: money will stampede back out of Treasuries, and rates will resume climbing.

Go long Treasuries in anticipation of Risk-Off after QE2 ends.  Then go short Treasuries as the Fed prepares to launch QE3 to "help" the markets regain their lost ground.



Wed, 03/30/2011 - 15:19 | 1118389 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Boston boy, I hope you are right. I have a small position in TLT and a buy stop on TBT not far from the old inverse when the TLT peaked. That is one of my short to mid term strategies. I am however considering living a less active life of trying to figure out how to stay value positive in an inflationary environment. Translation- own primarily physical precious metals and, in the words of that great philosopher ;-) Timothy Leary, "Tune in, turn on and drop out." All the daily crap I have to sift through to feel in control is starting to wear on me. This is no way for a human being to live.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 15:27 | 1118427 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Exactly, why is this so fucking hard for people to understand?  Are people immune to the fact that Bernanke is printing $7B DAILY to prop up the markets?  What happens when that ends?

You got it, Spring of 2010 all over again, and if Bernanke doesn't step back in with more QE, the selloff won't stop until S&P @600.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 19:45 | 1119498 zaknick
zaknick's picture

You mean 666.

They are the 666 banksters from he'll (shit, maybe even reptilian!).

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:52 | 1118257 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

He called equities "hard assets". heh

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 15:03 | 1118316 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

What do you know...another bond bear.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 15:10 | 1118340 rayban
rayban's picture

The only perpetual asset I know is a Consol. I guess somebody considered Enron and Lehman perpetuals too...

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 15:19 | 1118396 brandy night rocks
brandy night rocks's picture

The argument about reallocation into equities as a currency-devaluation defensive trade is sorta compelling, but if it were true wouldn't you expect the allocation to be more to blue chips with strong balance sheets?  But the real growth in the retardo meltup since Jackson Hole has been in the ultra-speculative space.  Run the Russell 2000 vs. the Dow since last September.


WTF do I know, though?  A look at my performance over the last two years will tell you how a contrarian thesis fares during a centrally planned rally.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 15:30 | 1118441 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Why hold equities at all during a currency devaluation?  That might have been necessary in Weimar Germany, or Zimbabwe, but in our markets you can easily get exposure to commodities directly, bypassing the corporate middle men.

That being said, if/when QE ends, it will all go to shit - commodities, PMs, equities, etc.  Bonds will be the asset class to hold.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 15:44 | 1118493 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"Gamblers place your bets!"

As Trav said yesterday, "why produce when you can instead participate in the government sponsored ponzi?"

Oh well, who needs real wealth anyway, when there's always more chips to be collected?

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 15:46 | 1118505 Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

2010 Redux, hold on to your chairs boyz...gonna get bumpy sooooon

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 16:15 | 1118637 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

In the past, the Bernank and his predecessors had a group of friends, the Crises, that they would call for push when they got stuck in the mud or snow and didn’t want to burn out the engine on the Suicide Machine.  Right now there is whole gang of Crises milling about- Libya, Bahrain, Egypt, Syria, Iran, Fukushima, PIIGS, but none of them are pushing foreign money (gas) into the US engine, because the US$ is no longer viewed as a safe haven.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 16:16 | 1118654 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

 perhaps it is correct in the horizon of months. in the long run it is wrong.  just because debtholders are losing doesn't mean it is a zero sum game with equity holders . my friend, everyone can lose together and they will.

in a real bankruptcy the equity holders get wiped out, before the debtholders.



Wed, 03/30/2011 - 19:39 | 1119490 edwardscpa
edwardscpa's picture

Bankruptcy is so pre-2008.

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