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I have no idea when this insanity will end and I doubt Paulson does either. So, all I do is own core miners, gold, silver and cash. Maybe a trade or two around that, but that is all. But end it will, that I know.
Am not that smart to get out of "AMZN PCLN NFLX or C at the right moment.
Just wondering why you think LNG is only one of the many names that Paulson is selling?
Perhaps because Paulson is no doubt dumping BAC? Just a hunch...
Edit--and then I read lower on the thread and Tyler answered it just as I suspected.
Hehehe. Can the FRB/PPT hold it up long enough for the whales to get out? Last one out of the pool is a rotten egg.
When only the Fed is buying, you've got to think about getting through that exit.
Paulson is probably unloading resource stocks and pre-positioning to buy a bunch of beaten down bank stocks.
Money NEVER leaves the casino.
It simply goes to another table.
He was selling bank stocks at the end of Q3. He is likely selling even more bank stocks in Q4.
cramer says not to worry..
He should buy
did you know your boy Sack worked at macroeconomic advisors prior to moving to the fed? http://www.ny.frb.org/aboutthefed/orgchart/sack.html
That comes as a complete surprise
Remember this speech? Given at the Marriott that is literally on the same street as PIMCO's HQ just weeks prior to QE@ launch. http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2010/sac101004.html
the shell game continues ..... until it doesn't. And in what time frame? Or will it become perpetual? Or is that really impossible? And the glitter is where the real value is? Continue the music for now ..... watching and learning. Trading on.
Internet stocks did not lead us out of the last recession so I doubt bank stocks will lead us out of this one.
A stock I once owned, sold regretfully bought back and dumped it again somewhere around $2.30 or so, along with KOG and some other names which have really outpreformed, i find these stocks all the time but have no patience, its a shame cause I could have really used that money now. Live and learn, I'm out of the stocks and could careless if they go to the moon, i'll hold my PM's and say I played their game.
OT: whether you agree or not, here's a foreclosure story y'all might enjoy. Grandma's foreclosure case has lasted through 2 marriages, 3 recessions and 4 presidents. Last mortgage payment made in October 1985.
I wonder if he has a condom on when he is 'dumping'?.
When big boys make big moves, they are doing so with far forward or deep inside information.
I cannot and do not subscribe to the notion of their brilliance. I only subscribe to the notion of their deep insider status and it's accompanying "suck-cess".
Even trying to follow the big boys on momentum trades is a losing proposition because you really have no good idea of the true reason behind their moves. Momentum will carry you farther because you'll hit the brakes late.
All this tells me is that the stock-market is going to be toasted to save the bond market. Would love to see his exposure to fixed income. Imagine having his insider insight into rate moves coming, which they, in-evitably will.
A Vlocker surprise is coming, with much accompanied hand-wringing and gosh we had to...guess who'll be holding the short end of that stick.
Edit: Interesting, a minute after posting this, I found this vial John Nadler commentary...
That said, Mr. Bernanke vehemently defended his team’s recent policies by alluding to the dire scenario that would have resulted, had no stimulus measures been undertaken. He also threw a bucket of cold water in the direction of the Sarah Palin-flavored allegations that money is being “created out of thin air” and that the consequences of all of this accommodation imply inevitable hyperinflation.
“We’ve been very, very clear that we will not allow inflation to rise above 2 percent. We could raise interest rates in 15 minutes if we have to. So, there really is no problem with raising rates, tightening monetary policy, slowing the economy, reducing inflation, at the appropriate time. That time is not now.”
The time is not now, sure. It could well be the day after tomorrow though.
We will see ORI, the bond market has lots of deflation looming. Not sure if they will move rates up the pension funds need stocks up ....
........"If you look at the CMBS (commercial mortgage-backed securities) over the next five years, "about 65 percent of the debt" will be maturing. "You can't replace the same amount of debt in today's market with the amount of debt that is maturing—its going to need more equity," he concluded."My Take:
Scott Rechler pretty much nails it. The numbers here are staggering.
As you can see above in the video, the commercial securitization market has just about disappeared. There were only $17 billion in commercial seceritizations done from 2008-2010 versus a whopping $602 billion fom 2005-2007
Based on Rechler's calculations 65% of the loans are about to mature.
As Rechler explains, most commercial loans come to duration in 5 years. Some need to be rolled over in as little as 1-2 years.
Based on the numbers above, this means about $400 billion in commercial loans needs to be rolled from 2010-2012. This total could be a little higher if some of the 2004 loans are included.".....
Good point SS, but with adequate propaganda (overt and covert), sheeple can be prepared for anything.
Look at how blithely(!) Ben Bukkake disgorges official numbers on inflation and jobs to validate his positions.
No one saw Vlocker's moves coming in the 80's and whether they were good, bad or ugly is still contentious.
If the Grabbermint can essentially take over Residential RE, why won't they do the same to CRE?
That one is easier solved with money (ie. QExxx), the Bond market however is somewhat more solidly stuck to global dependencies/contagion.
Your right QE 4 or 5 will deal with more shadow deflation. The rate moves hint/test flight will spill forth way before any move by way of jawboning. JMO
V-shaped recovery! And a new expression for the 2010s (echoing the super-size me era of the 2000s): V-shape me!
I see creeping risk aversion all around. This time there isn't one clear culprit like in the summer when it was Eurozone sovereign risk. It's pervasive signs coming from all 4 corners of the earth. Most are just pointing to a classic cycle top. But that's bad. Others are pointing to systemic risks. That's worse.
“Money NEVER leaves the casino. It simply goes to another table.” Not a very good trading plan. A good trading plan from the great trader Kenny Rogers. “You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em Know when to walk away, know when to run. You never count your money, when you're sittin' at the table . There'll be time enough for countin', when the dealin's done. ” a trader trades a complete trading plan continuously making more money than one loses.
It's little wonder so many Wall Street vets have decided it's time to throw in the towel. Honest analysis doesn't get you very far anymore in an economy of fraud.
LNG is a POS. Their liquefaction idea hail-mary was a great pump to dump and get the hell out
At the end of last month, the entire position in Cheniere was 1/10 of 1% of Paulson & Co stockholdings (not even a rounding error in terms of portfolio risk over any given period). It has been a complete dog for most of the year (and the company has been pretty doggy for years). The stock rises almost 100% from late October and so some portfolio manager at P&Co decides to take it off the pad, saying "good riddance."
I am not sure how one can use that info and read into anything about anything else Paulson has. Almost any other information one had would have more import to the fund's risk management, investment direction, or thematic interest. If Paulson wants to take equity risk off the table, a tiny slice of his $5bn+ in bank exposure would have more effect, and be a lot easier.
Selling due to redemptions? Especially by those who are afraid of the wikileaks related BAC news in Jan?
+ over the next few days and latest this weekend I have several indicators and cycles peaking for a week or two
+ rumors of another chinese rate hike over the weekend
+ OE next week
+ thinner market conditions
Anyway - at least I intend to go flat and book profits until latest Friday. Also in paper PMs btw. Possibly and likely Thursday - as Friday tends to be somewhat choppy and seems to be Blythes preferred trading day recently.
Oh look the stock index futures are up, guess more debt is what the market like right now.
But not a patch on Mr Gonos' achievemnets - eh? Lookey here - da Zim markit was up wot a million purshent or so? Aint shabby.
slow news day?
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