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The Global Commodity Equity Index Hits 27 Month High
Quote the chairman: "This fear of inflation is way overstated. We've looked at it very, very carefully. We've analyzed it every which way... We will not allow inflation to rise above 2% or less... I am 100% certain i can control inflation." Presenting the Jefferies global commodity index (CRB) which just hit a 27 month high.
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canada-to-sell-seal-me...
for more on the economics of seals see the attached (PDF)
excerpt
http://www.ifaw.org/Publications/Program_Publications/Seals/asset_upload...
that's nuts. I always love these famous last words...
and watching thieving bankers suffer. This is happening evrywhere
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMUKvI2Ywjs&feature=related
Ben Bernanke: Inflation Levels Too lowI nominate Ben Bernanek for best comedy actor of the year.
Don't show this Robert Prechter. He was on Scudlow again telling everyone that this is all going down.
So, let's see: Prechter sell calls: Feb 2010, Oct 2010 and Jan 2011. All Wrong
I think you forgot August 2009.
Hi, rocker. Please, for your own sanity, ignore Prechter.
He's nothing but a two-bit, snake oil salesman and con man.
John Williams of Shadowstats.com in an interview suggests Gold might be good insurance.
http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/8269
Has he ever been right about anything? How does he get airplay? I mean seriously I could get drunk and wander onto the set on CNBC and give a better set of predictions and be a lot more charming. Even whip out a book "The Shameful Investing Guide: Investing for Morons, Drunks, and Buffoons" to plug.
Excerpt from page 15
"Taffy is delicious. Buy sugar because it makes taffy delicious. Then drink a bottle of Jack Daniels and sleep at your desk while the profits roll in!"
LOL
"The Shameful Guide to Shameful Investing" by Shameful
Couldn't stay away Turd?
Trying to stick to commodity/PM-related threads only.
Just one more hit, eh?
Elliott Wave and other technical analysis, and fundamental analysis for that matter, doesn't work in rigged markets. EW is used more for price levels but not time. The Bernank and Co. can stretch out the irrational insanity longer than any of us can remain solvent.
You really can't blame tech/fund analysts in these markets. Would you blame players for losing in a rigged casino when the only real answer is not to play at all.
The only information that matters in rigged markets is INSIDE information. big banks, buffett, pimpco, GS etc.... You must be politically connected to have much of a chance.
If what you say is true then they are morons. If I was openly cheating at poker then the only rational thing to do would be to quit playing if you couldn't bring me to justice. If you'll keep playing with a known and open cheat, then I will fly out to play some high stakes poker with you any time you like :)
Money can still be made in a rigged game, but one has to recognize it's rigged and see where it is going.
Good. Americans deserve to spend every penny on gas and food.
Lucky that shipping those commodities is (nearly) free.
BDIY still heading south.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
Ag's doing their part.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MOO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p91058887254
Bernanke – No housing bubble to pop.
Inflation is a Central Bank's friend!
Yes and everything is soaring today, back to early January levels, except gold and silver. And I'm out here, with my hog in my hand, having called for 1400+ and 30+ today. Shit.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/getting-frustrated.html
gold and silver are -- as usual -- lagging due to the government sponsored and funded manipulation at the Comex....
wait quietly in your places until 1:30.
Turd, hang tight. This is not our month. Everyone is convinced of a braod based economic recovery, record profits, and moderate inflation. This will continue until something blows up.
Execpt, nothing blows up unless TPTB wants it to. The question is, what do TPTB want to blow up next?
I am with you ....I think its going to explode some hour..day.....this is just to wierd....Banks are up....LOL....what is going on with this world...a fake bond auction in Portugal...and all is great...I am going to get drunk..
you could get it turd, they didn't succeed with the attempted manipulation to get it below 1380....
four days now of failure (wonder what it cost we peasants in JPM subsidies for it)
and now, there are folks jumping the 1:30 gun....
I feel the pain man. You do good work. Don't worry. I believe in you.
Patience. I'm only a padwan learner Jedi-Turd-master, but your price is right. The timing is not, but hey, only people on Timmay's speed-dial can time the markets.
dont fight the fed? been good idea to date but when do you say they have lost control? ive been trying for awhile to find indicators that tell me they have lost control but with china, japan and ecb backstopin portugal thats alot of power i guess my only real guess is to watch the acceleration of inflation anybody else have any clues?
food stamp numbers....the selling of treasuries by investors...muni binds....corn and beans..oil and gas...local tax news...and more stories of how other countries gold and silver demand is up big...as for our government statistics...I do not trust them anymore...
Oil back under 92...for now.
Looks like the risk trade is back on again today cuz a...cuz a...cuz a...banks are up?
No, 'cause Europe is fixed. You know - again.
Please! That chart includes energy and food, and probably underweights big screen tv's.
yeah thats right, cant they get it right, you have to ex out food energy and commodities to get a real picture of inflation
Only morons look at the statistics first and then form conclusions. It's a lot less work, more politically expedient, and ego-massaging to simply find or make up statistics to fit your pre-determined conclusions.
The Bernank testified last week that inflation, including energy and food was 1%. No wonder he's 100% certain he can contain inflation. All he has to do is lie.
Hold on Turd, DXY just took up cliff diving.
And right on time we have this ..........
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abKK9jxDu3R8&pos=2
OH Dear (or Dearer)
But everything that people don't need is in the figures that count inflation and as long as they are not a problem, then there is not a problem with inflation..
see, no problem.... BTFD
The Bernank and the group of teens in FRBNY have analysed it in every which way and chosen such a yardstick to measure inflation that the true inflation will not be captured by it. It's so convenient and easy that The Bernank can say he's 100% sure "inflation" will be in control even though it's not.
And right on time we have this ..........
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abKK9jxDu3R8&pos=2
OH Dear (or Dearer)
What?..you don't believe in Idiot Wave?
Pretty much setting up for a Weimar move.
Tape keeps getting stronger, not weaker.
Waiting to see when gold bottoms and starts moving up again.
When that happens, we'll see Dow 14,000 in no time.
Gold 'bottomed' or rather credibility inflation topped, a decade ago.
Weimar? As in post wwi pre Nazi?
I believe he's saying "expect inflation". For a change, I agree with Robo.
Mom used to say she saw photos in school of how they had wheelbarrows full of money just to buy bread.
Zimbabwe?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/06/23/13987/the-mad-market-of-zim/
I don't know why Robot is getting junked.
You can't have both DOW 5,000 and Gold 3,000.
It will be DOW 20,000 and Gold 3,000.
Still believing equities can go down in a printing press environment is foolish. Those who played that in the broke post-WWI Germany went... broke.
Dow:Gold has always and will always bottom around 1. It peaked at 45 and has been dropping ever since. 5000:$5000 is a good bet. When exactly? What difference does it make?
Is the Dow overvalued, or is gold undervalued?
I can't see the Dow going to 1,384 from here, but I easily see gold going to 11,757 from here.
Stock can't go down in a zero-rate inflationary environment, nominatively speaking, for physical reasons. Thus, calling for a drop in equities is foolish, and playing it is a waste of time. Marc Faber understood it, and is bullish on equities. Just my two cents.
Is the Dow overvalued, or is gold undervalued?
yes.
You obviously have no idea of what relative and nominative mean.
On a relative basis, it is obvious the Dow is overvalued. On a nominative basis, it is perfect.
Well, Hamy, if that is your real name :*), how many times has the Dow visited 10,000? How many more visits? All of this is predicated on the stability of the unstable, on the central banks of a dozen countries coordinating in an undisturbed macro environment; stocks can go down, they will, and as the American middle class is knowingly hollowed out (see the Atlantic cover story this month), the current charade serves to keep the political heat down.
Betting on equities is the bigger waste of time. But, if one enjoys casinos, enjoy the ride. Just don't call it investing.
Good luck!
"stocks can go down, they will"
Like they did in Weimar Germany, in 2000s Argentina and in pre-2009 Zimbabwe???
Some people seem to have serious understanding problems when it comes to inflation, nominative and relative notions.
When the printing presses print, nothing - even a nuclear apocalypse or a State default - can push stocks down.
Wow, junked for saying this? Who is this, a disgruntled short seller?
They are way past investing. They are evangalizing, throwing all their energy hopes and expectations into it. Trying to drag people along for the ride. It's what the stock market has been designed to do. Allow you to invest and vote and hope for the success of a corporation. A large investment of energy and hope for a very very very small piece of the action.
Care to play one of these things is not like the others: gold, DOW, dollar?
The close before Intel's earnings has been many a short term top. Look it up.
Copper
That should do it....
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/01/copper_12.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0
What?..you don't believe in Idiot Wave?
Is that like the Idiot Wind?
The Bernank and the group of teens in FRBNY have analysed it in every which way and chosen such a yardstick to measure inflation that the true inflation will not be captured by it. It's so convenient and easy that The Bernank can say he's 100% sure "inflation" will be in control even though it's not.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abKK9jxDu3R8&pos=2
Oh dear (or dearer)
Here's an interesting little story abt US banks:
http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2011/01/12/us-banks-reporting-phan...
That can't be good..... Not at all honest disclosure.
I could not possibly be allowed.
These banks are cruising for a bruising
To be frank, I am surprised ZH hasn't commented on this issue much. The author states there are around $1.4 trillion of delinquent mortgages where the banks are still booking the interest (interest accrued line) even though they receive no cash. Rough calc says $1.4 trillion at 5% comes to $17.5 billion per quarter of earnings that are no more than a book entry. He says no loss will be recognized until foreclosure, but I understood it was once the home had been sold.
And we wonder why they push the market higher everyday?
What the Bernank was trying to say was, 'we will continue to export our inflation to the developing nations, it has worked for us for decades and their is no reason for us to stop now'.
Well, what's an annualized rate of 94% in the CRB since June between friends?
Maybe he meant that he's 2% sure it'll be contained under 100%. He'd be right then.
Rudy Von Havenstein bitchez.
IT's the benevolent thing to do..until farmers refuse to accept the confetti from Washington and people starve to death.
25% of farmers in the UK are living in poverty
Commodities up, good thing the CPI can be manipulated to remove all those price increases and only look at housing and iPods. I don't know about you but I rarely buy food, energy, or commodity products but I buy at least 20 iPods a week and 2 houses...
true dat - no heating oil either, what is that factored in at - .04% or something ridiculous.
All I want to know is how the f they calculate the f'n thing - do they buy the same box of cereal at the same stores? If so, maybe they should pro rata the contents to the cost, seems like everything is in a bigger package with less in it for more fakkin money!!!!
They probably discount all goods bought with food stamps as a discount.
Well I'm sure they factor in each month that that box of cereal taste better and gives more pleasure to make up for it's higher price. Or you could always substitute the cereal for yummy rocks, looks like the Africans have not figured out that trick yet, still living under the delusion that one must eat food!
In short the CPI is like everything in America, a fraud. Fraud is the cornerstone of America, literally our entire society is built on it. Look at your job, and I'm sure you'll see fraud happening all the time.
And remember that shelter makes up about 32% of CPI, with three quarters of that from Owner Equivalent Rent. This genius piece of statistical nonsense is calculated by asking homeowners what they think they would need to pay to rent their own home. What was the number from Rosie's write up - 13% vacancy rate, 18m empty homes. That's going to keep CPI pegged for a while...
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifact6.htm
CPI is just another index, just like Dow etc... When one or more components aren't working for you, just ignore them or replace them with one that does.
Very interesting day.
Capitulation in the forward vol curve. Feb vix 19.50. VXX - 5%
copper up 7 cents fcx +.50 even though spy up 12
The only thing that can stop the monetization is the market. As commodity prices rocket higher there will be more and more global political pressure against the Fed. Brent crude is a buck and change away from $100. Marking up warren buffets portfolio is not going to do much for the rest of the world....
Sold all my remaining industrial metals stocks. Now just short the r2000.
Dollar
Go!
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/01/dollar_12.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0
I could control inflation if there was one honest auditor in all the land.
We all know its nonsense, government stats do not reflect real world scenarios, more academic ones. Its just a game. Ben is measuring inflation in Yuan terms, where the Yuan has already revalued to where he and Timmay want it to be. You see, $ prices are actually falling when measured in fantasy Yuan, thought we all knew that ?
i woke up this morning with hoof prints on my back! I felt like I was run over by a bull.
I have hoped for many years for The Bernake to gain some sense. I am so worried that my savings will be unable to sustain my small family and our small hopes for a small home, decent education for my 2 kids and a small nest egg. I just dont know what to do.....shit, I am all out of ideas on how much more expenses I can cut. We have cut to the bone, downsized, got rid of the second car, cancelled cable, took a deal for the internet, cancelled all kinds of expensive plans, purchases, eating out, vacations and got into survival mode. Despite all this, I can see I will lose long term, But this asswipe just does not stop printing money or make his rich friends at wall st pay. How much more of this can we take?
I hope this moron...is stopped by congress from his lunacy and monumentally fails. F'in idiot. Ya right...I know its too much to expect our reps to grow some nads.Whatever..hell, I am so fed up with this mess, I would welcome a treasury bond rout. At least we start over.
+1000
me too, it makes me upset and angry all at the same time. I keep looking at ZH because it makes me a little happier at least knowing that some are shouting about all this injustice
No shit!!! I have cut to the bone as well. I am going to have to start eating bread sandwiches. If Bernankee does not stop soon, I will have to add some of his money he's throwing out the helicopter with my bread sandwiches.
Candy is dandy,
but lick her is quicker
sorry...double post. But I could use a double shot of something right now.
Well let's see: It is dead winter and I now ride a bike to the store for my needs, I have cut the thermostat down below 62 degrees in the house, cancelled the land line and have a prepaid cellphone, quit drinking pop because it cost too much, do not smoke or drink alcohol, watch digital air wave television, stopped buying lottery tickets, don't visit starbucks anymore, do not eat out period unless its a dollar menu item, use the same bath towel to dry off with up to 3 times now to cut back on laundry expenses and we have just started QE 2. Fak, I guess I am going to have to get a large refrigerator box to move in down by the river come spring. You cannot sell anything to raise money to pay bills because nobody has any to pay you with. Hell, that equity market is raging though. Thank god for that!!!
The wheels are going to come off if the USD breaks under the 50 day moving average. We will see a commodity spike like we saw in mid-2008.
Look at corn. See any similarity in this chart?
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZC&p=w1
If the USD breaks below the 50 day MA, then the blowoff is coming in commodities, and all hell is going to break loose. In a month, corn will be closer to 800 than 600, and Bernanke will still say there is no inflation anywhere.
I think people heavily underestimate the effect that a commodity super spike will have on the economy. It will force Bernanke to stop QE. That will cause massive dislocations in the market. Fear will return in full force. There is far too much complacency out there right now given where commodity prices are at right now. Too much emphasis is put on oil, not enough is placed on corn, cotton, sugar, soybeans. These have major economic impacts.
Businesses, including some of the biggest players, are going to be screaming bloody murder, if they're not already, as they find themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place; their two choices will be to hike retail prices, which will destroy volume, or to eat the costs, which will destroy margins.
The Bernank has created a Catch 22 for multinationals, and they're not exactly going to be doing/saying nothing about this situation.
They have a 3rd choice. Leave prices the same and put less goods in the package. That is what they will do. Hell that is what they have been doing. Value deflation will become a household term this year.
I agree that companies will become very upset with the margin pressures due to rising input costs, and it'll be interesting to see how that affects Congress and the Fed.
For all the talk about how sustainable this stupid print and monetize scheme is, its really anything but a ticking time bomb that could go off and blow the wheels off everything at any time.
I follow the NYBOT Cont Commodity Index, and it continues to march higher and higher also. Bottom line: Food and energy are soon going to cost a whole lot more!
This morning, the US Dept of Ag released data showing that grains (corn, soybeans, wheat) are also in short supply. Coffee and Cotton surged again too. Here are a few tweets I received from various sources, and this is just a sampling:
US soybean stocks at 140 mln bu equates to a 15.2-day supply - the tightest of the past 40 years!
China buys 40k tons US soyoil
USDA's tight soybean stocks est was only achieved by "assuming" that prices would ration beans available for domestic crush
Global corn stocks fall to just a 55.4-day supply; 2nd tightest of past 35 years; 2nd only to 54.9-day supply 4 yrs ago
Today's USDA #s are bullish long-term, altho we could see profit taking if buying int wanes today
Today's USDA data means that corn needs 93 mln and soybeans need 79 mln acres w little margin for bad weather
USDA tightens stocks leaving no room for error in next season's plantings and will require rationing of ethanol demand
Have you seen the stories about how PACKAGES of stuff you buy is getting smaller? Food, coffee, and everything else is higher than people realize, as they pay more for that pound of coffee thats going down to 14 oz now, 13 oz next week, etc, and most people dont even realize it.
ya cannot short this market now. Just wait, one Sunday night in Tokyo futures will be limit down and stay there. And, I will have 0 shorts. The bernank needs to be jailed.
Higher and higher we go.
You're stop loss function as a naked short in the market are no longer required. Any malinvestment will be put into the aggregate pool of taxpayer collective and the shit rolls downhill rule will be in affect. Anyone who can have money beaten out of them will pay.
Bernanke's deflation is a bitch.
up is down, down is up