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Global Darwinian Forces Point To World War Predicated On Crude Oil Supplies
We as mere individuals, will never understand the desire to become a global superpower. This desire is something reserved for continents, nations, and unions as it is impossible for us as mere individuals to achieve such status. However, even though we may not have the capacity to understand this desire, we know that it exists. We know that every single day every sovereign nation is actively working or has the innate desire to become the strongest entity in the world. Why does this happen? What is the driving force behind this phenomenon? In my opinion it is driven by the underlying principle that the world lacks enough supply of natural resources to prolong the existence of every single nation over the long run. Over time, as the world begins to approach levels where natural resources are being fiercely competed over because of inadequate supplies and/or unusually high global demand at the margin, the strongest nations will attempt to force weaker nations into further weakness in the hope that this action may curtail overall demand and allow the strongest nations to accumulate necessary supplies at cheaper prices. It is Darwinism at its purest, and it is ultimately driven by the idea that while economic harmony may exist when the strongest parties are satisfied with the distribution of goods and resources, extreme competitive behavior will arise when those parties become dissatisfied with the allocation of resources, especially those resources necessary for independent survival. It is very much akin to the behavior of animals living in a jungle free from the so-called orders of society. When all animals including the strongest are fed and all so-called entities appear satisfied, harmony may exist because there is no need for competition as supplies of resources are adequate enough to meet the demands of all entities. However, if/when the strongest entities become dissatisfied with their levels of consumption, we will likely see an extreme uptick in competitive behavior as the idea of the natural order for satisfaction dictates that the strongest must be first to be completely satisfied. If/when this natural order appears to be imbalanced in that the strongest are not receiving adequate supplies, the strongest entities will likely seek to not only eliminate those entities which they believe will restore natural balance, but they will specifically seek to eliminate those who they believe will be easiest to eliminate (i.e. those entities who appear weakest). So what resource are we speaking of specifically when we speak of resources necessary for survival? We are speaking of crude Oil. Every single other commodity is secondary to crude oil in terms of necessity for survival. Gold, corn, wheat, coal, even steel are all secondary commodities. We don't need corn or even grain to survive, and coal and other fossil fuels are simply alternatives to the most important fossil fuel of all, crude oil. Without crude oil, factories would come to a stand still, refineries would be unable to produce gasoline, airplanes would be grounded, heating oil would be unable to be produced, and ultimately unemployment would skyrocket as productive inputs are unable to function and means of transportation become idle. It is the reason why there is literally no limit to how high the price of oil can go over the long run. Its significance as the world's primary energy source produces wars, wreaks havoc within the economic supply chain, and has the capacity to bring entire nations to its knees.
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You loose me right at the first sentence when your thesis is based on "sovereign nations" trying to become super powers.
I would counter and say that the more robust model is the Bank and its economic block creations. These creations include various "geo-ethnic" nests in which the young are cultivated for ceremonial battles of annihilation as orchestrated by the Bank.
I stop reading after the second sentence. It is certainly possible to understand the motivations of a political entity's desire to expand it sphere of influence. It's not outside the understanding of us mere individuals because those taking the positive actions of the state are individuals. There is no amorphous blob called that state seperate from individuals that makes calculated decisions.
Joseph Tainter, redux:
http://www.google.com/search?q=tainter+complex+societies&hl=en&rls=com.microsoft
We know that every single day every sovereign nation is actively working or has the innate desire to become the strongest entity in the world.
I also disagree - at least as it applies to The Western world. Western Civilization is slowly committing suicide: below replacement birth rates, voluntary dilution of it's own cultural values, unassimilated, hostile immigration, anemic armed forces and an enthusiastic embrace of unsustainable entitlements for it's citizens. These cold facts simply do not mirror the behaviors of rational actors intent on dominating in dog-eat-dog, survival of the fittest game play.
Even the mighty United States under Bush fails to exhibit this "extreme competitive behavior." Any real empire worth it's salt... The Japanese, The British...would have turned Iraq into a parking lot, installed governors from the homeland and sucked all their oil dry by now. Imagine Tojo concerning himself with establishing a cooperative and self-stable government in the Philippines.
Darwinian forces are at work, you're just seeing it from the wrong end. "Fittest" doesn't always mean the most powerful or the strongest.
When push comes to shove The US has more than enough coal, gas and (potential) nuclear power to keep the wheels turning. A vanishing energy supply will not be it's undoing.
Darwinian forces are at work, you're just seeing it from the wrong end. "Fittest" doesn't always mean the most powerful or the strongest.
A small warm blooded rodent can steal the eggs of a mighty dinosaur in the cool of night. The fittest are those who are successfully reproducing with expanding populations and territory. Look at the changing face of populations. This isn't about nations, or race for that matter. Nature isn't that organized.
robo babes. everything else is secondary.
Your analysis implies that a significant majority of the world's nations (population) will be erradicated because there simply aren't enough natural resources in the world for everyone. However, there is a flaw in your argument when you assume that:
All 3 of these assumptions are false. Your analysis is therefore incomplete and so far innaccurate although your conclusion may very well be correct.
RTK.
World conquest has been on the agenda long before crude oil was ever considered more that a polution of the land.
You idealist can rant on, but the reality is most of you couldnt grow a tomato if your life depended on it much less survive a winter without electricity.
Best time to learn those skills is yesterday. Second best time is now. Get to it.
BTW, tomatos and zucchini are ridiculously easy to grow in most of the eastern US.
Yes, there are alternatives to oil - But nothing can match crude in terms of energy density, flexibility, and storability. To think that we can all "go green" and utilize nuclear power and electric cars and some "hydrogen economy" is lunacy. If someone doesn't quickly figure out how to ECONOMICALLY harvest heavy oil and bitumen (especially the really deep tar, or which there is PLENTY) we will see a Mad Max scenario within 20 years.
Here are some things that would HELP - but would not replace the need for crude:
- automobiles move to nat gas platform and infrastrucutre
- power generation becomes more distributed and less centralized
- biomass, wind, and solar brought on-line QUICKLY
- coal gasification
- geothermal (where it makes sense)
- solar (where it makes sense)
- fuel cells (nat gas, basically)
I want to be a fan of nuclear energy, but if you factor in the full cradle-to-grave costs, nuclear is insanely expensive.
I agree that we can take oil out of the equation - and many of us would survive. But anyone dependent upon cheap oil (people who live in the suburbs or in dense urban environments far away from food production and fresh water resources simply isn't going to make it. Other forms of energy can help but can't replace oil. Anyone who doesn't understand that hasn't done their homework.
"My grandfather rode a camel. My father rode in a car. I fly a jet airplane. My grandson will ride a camel." -Saudi Saying
Food for thought - 25% of the U.S. workforce is either directly or indirectly connected to Oil related jobs. This is why the government is in no hurry to go "green" even though they talk a good game.
Brazil is on the right path by diversifying their energy supply down to the automobile level. Are the Brazilians that much smarter than our own Uncle Sam?
Well, it's a shame that almost every party involved has nukes. Party on bitches!
We're Americans. History don't apply to us.
That's hilarious, only problem is that some people will think you're serious.
Wile E. Coyote says +1
just don't look down
Wars are U.S.
>>War are U.S><< you say?
Little light on history there, aren't you Sparky.
WW I was started because Germany thought a short war could make them a world power. 9 million dead later, and the groundwork for WW II and 70-100 million dead, and you claim the U.S. is the problem?
WOW...what an ignorance of history you possess!
The sooner we run out of oil the better. It would open up whole new industries that would produce jobs. Does anyone think for a minute if there was no oil that the world would come to an end?
whole new industries
mostly tied to horse and buggy ,
how to get rid of manure ,
the strange case of who killed welma the whale
Global Darwinian Forces Point To World War Predicated On Crude Oil Supplies....
Therefore this coming to a landscape near you?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ru96Lj8KfAo
....a "maelstrom of decay"...
The outcome if even 25% of the U.S. refining capacity were suddenly eliminated.
TSA is guarding the planes and passengers...who's guarding the refineries???
Paragraph breaks are a good thing.
Re-format please.
With dollar hegemony intact, the US controls most of the worlds oil supply anyway. Wars will continue to be fought to preserve dollar hegemony.
When the piss-ant big shots torch the dollar sufficiently and the reserve currency status is truly in jeopardy, then your paragraph of happiness will rumble to life with the start of WWIII.
There is other commodity worth looking at and it is tied with oil. Water. The world in many places is running low on good water supplies. Brazil happens to be sitting pretty with water but in many places it's a huge issue. It's huge in China, in my mind one of their major problems and one rarely talked about. India also has a water problem.
Water can be reused, but to purify and pump it takes energy, which is the point of oil. There are a lot of things running out and in short supply. Oil is a major one but it is just one factor.
Ahhhh grasshopper. You wise man. Me ahead of curve. Bad thing to be too far ahead of curve. Time always tells.
Time? That's one commodity no one has discussed. Ya think GS is working on a time machine?
one commodity in short supply is the paragraph.
+666
a commodity with plenty of supply are anal remarks
from red pencil guys ,
as if this is a choice spoken English class ,
i suspect in a conversation some will interrupt to make sure the sentence structure is complete . and the beer is fully swallowed..
as they place their pen in the plastic holder in their shirt pocket amongst the 20 others in different shades of intolerance
Mr. Dumpster guy, your brain works on a refreshingly different level.
Carry on.
+1
how does a continent desire power LOL
seems to me its the rulers .. or the power brokers ..
Plus ONE!
Peak oil, has.....get ready....already happened! Gasp? It is true. Either in '05, or '08, take your pick.
i disagree. There are only two commodities we as a modern society (and individuals) can not function without - Air & Water. Everything else has substitutes.
This is the kind of ignorance that destroys civilizations. Have you looked in your nation's wallet recently, or checked the price tags on those "substitutes"? Didn't think so.
Do the math.
There is not enough room on this server to inform you of how many areas you are astonishly wrong about.
Now you can go back to the Stone Age if that qualifies to prove your point, but this world runs on fossil fuels as well as many metal and minerals found widely in nations that would love to bury America.
Three: Food, Water & Shelter
five loin cloth , air , water , shelter. tacos
Oh really,how about food for almost 6.7 billion people or can we really survive on shit? I would like to see how you and every other commenter here will react when your supermarket shelves are empty and your bankcards no longer work. And forget "peak" oil, this will happen before any permanent decline, hell, we came just days away from it in march 09!
This is not a credit crisis. We are in the first stage of the greatest energy crisis mankind will ever know, right now! and no more than a handful of ZH readers nor even nobel prize winning economists can get this fact through their ignorant thick skulls yet a completely economic illiterate first year physics or engineering student would grasp this in an hour, probably even a history student too. NET ENERGY, learn about it. Your life is about to change in ways that you never dared to imagine and you'll probably be out in the street demanding a gold standard as the miracle cure just like every other ZHer... But I apologise, its really nothing personal, I'm the one with the problem so I won't be making anymore comments again...
No need to be so condescending, waketheroach. A lot of us do understand that we're at the beginning of a global food/energy crisis and are preparing accordingly.
Blasphemy. DOn't tell me you are buying into that Peak Oil crap.
It costs about three bucks to move a 3000 lb truck about 20 miles where I am. The global producers just spent -what - a megagazillion dollars to increase capacity over the last half decade so they could delude themselves into thinking that there is more in the ground than they know?
Some very smart people bought into climate science computer models. So I'll have to give you a pass.
Crap? How is Peak Oil "crap"?
I'd call it "obvious"; perhaps you'd like to explain your reasoning (other than your (well-founded) distrust of computer models)?
Oil peaks everywhere. Remember Texas in the 1970s? Texas oil peaked and Dallas nearly turned into a ghost town at the time.
Oil peaks individually everywhere, and peaks globally as well. There are a fixed and finite number of places you can drill, each with its own distribution of output over time; add them up and the world itself has a distribution. Even finding a new Middle East would not make more than a decade's difference in terms of the overall global distribution of the output curve.
Of course this doesn't mean we'll run out abruptly, and it doesn't mean we won't be able to gradually switch to more expensive sources of oil.
But it does mean that we're in for a hell of a lot of pain as the entire world slides down the right side of the curve.
I was not goin to comment again but hey, I just cannot bring myself to pass on this opportunity but I will not waste my time with any serious debate as you have shot yourself in the foot three times in that one short reply of yours alone.
The best thing about falling global net energy rates is that ignoramuses like yourself will no longer be able to afford the electricity to push your cornucopian religious beliefs all over the internet. I thought ZH would be remain immune from computer savvy rednecks but I was wrong. However, the bad thing is that you probably own an assault rifle or ten and when the reality of your choices hits home you'll be looking for payback.
It is a cruel world indeed, no doubt people like you will end up reeping the benefits of other peoples intelligence and forsight as you take to stealing everything of value and bashing anyone who aint white or who wears a suit along with the rest of Alex Jones worshippers.
Shouldn't you be hanging out in the McDonalds carpark with your trailor park pals listening to metallica, polishing those rims on your 3000 pound truck and combing your mullet Joe Dirtt? Or better yet, drinking beer and lighting farts whilst watching TNA wrestling or exposing yourself to underage girls on the Jonas brothers fan sites?
Oh, and by the way... You don't happen to go by the user name HorseCents on youtube do you? ;-)
Drill, drill, drill... Lets drench Jesus in oil...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bHZRSlhJxY
I also disagree with the premis in this article. When Oil declines, Employment will then be forced to rocket to full 100 percent else you die. Instead of tractors and combines in the fields, we will have manual labor of old once again. You work or you don't eat.
Last time I checked Air was in abundant supply and trust me when the Perrier runs out, we'll be purifying ocean water on a mass scale.
Didn't you see the Air & Water charts? They're the ones that look just like Nat Gas...just in case Im gonna cover my Air & Water shorts right before the inventory numbers come out next Wednesday...
And I understand the case for water, however the only entities dealing with water issues at this point are the poor, and we all know no one really cares about them. Maybe if they bought some IPods or something, we might pay them some attention.
The "green" revolution upped ag production because pouring oil on plants kills the bugs and helps them grow; we will not discuss the side affects. I know, I do not understand how petro "fertilizers" work either (nitro and stuff yeah but you'd think it would kill the plant to pour that shit on 'em???). All I know is there are organic fertilizers. Bat guano, crab meal, corn meal, kelp meal, fish meal, etc, etc, etc. But oil was dirt cheap for a whole century! Now it is damn expensive to get out of the ground. 6 billion people want easy access to cheap food. Parts of America are inhabited by those dumb enough to think they are privileged as to the wealth of mother nature, and on foreign soil none the less! Shall we grab our guns and go Ahab to hunt the petro whale? If some Americans do try for WWIII based on ludicrous notions of American supremacy and grandeur due to the fact that the State was rather close to world hegemony, the parts of the country that can sustain themselves will secede. Organic food will be the only way.
I do like your point about the bare necessities, however, what shall we trade with if not gold/silver? Paper? Didn't work. Facebook credits? Woop Woop thats the sound of the BEAST!
Sound of da police:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VRZq3J0uz4Organic food has less to do with the organically produced fruit or veggie and everything to do with rich fertile soil. Top soil isn't sexy like "climate science" but I don't need a bunch of corrupt "scientists" and politicians to know the importance of rich top soil.
Neem oil works for pests but use it when it's not hot and sunny otherwise the heat will burn the vegetative growth. Don't forget Jersey green sand.
Don't meant to sound as an ass but Green revolution has little to do with OIL. (unless by green you call something else but breakthrough development in agriculture.)
Oil is a major ingredient in the petro-chemical industry (plastics), however there are plenty of alternative raw materials for those.
To sum it up, the main attraction of OIL is its low price compared to other alternatives. As we run out of OIL and the price will gradually rise over the years, humans will be using something else.
Technically correct but misleading. All those better varieties of hybrid plants suck more nutrients out of the soil. Without massive inputs of nitrogen and phosphorous, they'll ruin the soil in 1-2 seasons and you'll be worse off than if you had never used them.
Nitrogen fertilizer (pure ammonia or ammonium nitrate in most cases) is not made from oil, but does require natural gas or a substitute and a lot of energy to make, transport, and apply. Phosphate is inorganic but requires a ton of energy to mine, transport, and apply. All that energy currently comes from oil. Sure, it might be possible to get it from elsewhere (most likely CNG or propane, and the latter is simply an oil byproduct) but the infrastructure is all set up for oil.