This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Global Macro Update
Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP
We start in Fixed Income, the long bond future broke out the 115-19 resistance level yesterday late in the session, and gapped up this morning. Here technically as long as the gap is not filled and the bond does not trade below 115-21, the market should rally toward the channel resistance at 117-27/28. This is technically our preferred scenario following our buy recommendation last Friday. Conversely, should we be wrong and the market breaks below 115-21, the 115-00/114-19 should be a huge support zone (if 115 is convincingly broken on a daily close the next support is 111-25!).
We recommend taking profit on the ED/L Z0/H1 (Eurodollar/Short-Sterling box trade) selling at +7. We had initially recommended buying the structure at -2. The ER/ES Z0/H1 (Euribor/Euroswiss box trade) is currently at +0.5, and we recommended buying around -4/-6. We would possibly take partial profit but the trade should have more upside potential. Finally the BAM0/U0/Z0 butterfly is trading -4/-2. We recommended selling at 0. Keep in mind the BAH0/M0/U0 fly rolled out at -28.5, so the carry selling BAM0/U0/Z0 is very positive. Sadly I must say hardly any of our clients put the positions on. I am still absolutely convinced that the current environment in Fixed Income is not one in which traders should chase home runs and an ever elusive secular bond bear market (at least not until we trade under 111-25 in 30Y future), but instead one where money will be made extracting carry and avoiding the choppy outright price action.
In FX we note a very interesting reversal in AUDCAD right on the 50/100-dma bearish cross. There is a key support at 0.9260 (a break below would be resolutely bearish). In the meantime, we await to see if the market remains under the 0.9476 resistance, which if broken will confirm upside towards parity, and even possibly 1.0680/1.0840. In parallel, we note that gold has just hit the short-term channel resistance at 1,118. The key medium term resistance remains 1,135, a break of which would confirm a move towards new highs. We stick to our buy recommendation initiated at 1,080/1,090 but would clearly be weary of a break back below 1,100.
Good luck trading,
Nic
- 3924 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -





The unwavering lust for junk bonds and corporates continues unabated. Any selloff, no matter how minor, is met with furious buying.
Heh, everybody is dashing for trash these days.
Went long USDCAD @ 1.025 and 1.015. What a mistake. I should have gotten out at 1.03 a few days ago, but I still think the BoC will blink before the Fed.
The 50 & 200 MA on NZDUSD converged and crossed yesterday on my platform. Does this have any significance because I would love to short that pair also.
Gold...own it, own calls, but set your alarm for hyper-inflation...and forget it.
BUY. GOLD. NOW.
ONLY. GOLD.
The "Global Macro Update" can KISS MY ASS.
Get out of your bunker much?
There are things in the world which have practical uses too such as food and machinery etc.
With such lack of perspective how can you have a chance of knowing when its time to sell?
???
Time to sell? There will always be a time to sell gold, just not for dollars. This 'accounting scandal' at the LBMA is looking interesting, I agree with Mr Gekko.
Could be that the biggest bubble of all is reaching its limits.
Gordon, you are a man of conviction. Not many of those around these days. Keep up your work on your blog. I hear the table pounding! ;)
I much prefer Ag because I'm simply a poor man
OK gold bugs, let's go to the chart for the paper gold e-minis:
http://i44.tinypic.com/i3fhh5.jpg
What is interesting to me is if the LBMA club will employ the suppression play outlined by Andrew Maquire on Friday now that everyone that is interested in gold knows it. Should they be brazen enough to give it another go, I'm a physical buyer on any price plunge. Remember the equity market will be closed on Friday while bonds are open for 1/2 a day.
Stay relaxed & wait for the opportune moment to buy more at a suppressed price.
Good linux hosting option package offered by ucvhost which not only provides the best in terms of hosting packages but also believes in truly being there for the customer, 24x7. windows vps Moreover , they offer unlimited bandwidth as well as nearly 1GB storage along with database maintenance, email facility along with storage, availability of sub domain and many other important features for a very low price. ucvhost