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Global Macro Update
Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP
As we can see on the VIX/S&P chart the market this morning re-tested the reversal level in VIX now support around 15.60 and has so far bounced off it. This corresponds to a retest by the S&P of the resistance line joining the tops since last fall. We keep our bearish preference here despite the slight excess above 1,207 (not during the NY session). Keep an eye on the resistance line for equity futures, and the 15.58 support on a daily close.
Looking at the AUD, which has been highly correlated to risk, we see that after Canada's commitment to hike rates AUDCAD has rejected the 100/200 DMAs which are about to post a bearish cross. If we break the support at 0.92 the market should accelerate lower. AUDCAD has been correlated to risk as well despite the perception it's a relative value trade between two commodity currencies. As such a break would be very interesting in the light of our bearish equity recommendation.
Similarly, we see that despite all the EUR weakness that is event related and the collapse of EURAUD, we have now reached a big long term support are between 1.42 and 1.44, we also have strong bullish divergence on the daily momentum indicators, and short-term it seems we are holding recent lows and could now start a correction higher. We would recomend buying around 1.4380 to play 1.47 and on a break of 1.47 add on to positions, while using close below current lows as a stop.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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"We've been keeping our bearish preferences" ever since the SPX "bounced off resistance at the 666 level" last March and shot back past "consolidation levels" at 700 ... 800 ... 900 ... 1000 ... 1100 ... 1200 ... and where she stops, nobody knows.
Why bother with all these voodoo chicken-entrail-reading mystical-numerology games when the market is driven by a synergistic combination of delusion and manipulation and only the folks running the HAL 9000 algo suites and the propaganda mill have a clue?
And neither "luck" nor "trading" have anything whatever to do with it these days, dude.
Following this guys advice is a very expensive form of entertainment
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