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Global Risk Update
By Nic Lenoir Of ICAP
We broadly expected follow through weakness, simply because the pattern yesterday was defintiely not complete, and investors having not trimmed long positions yesterday probably needed to take some chips off the table before the weekend. We also failed to violate the resistance in S&P futures at 1,135.
Interestingly we see on the Nasdaq and the Dow charts daily that we may have put an intermediary low yesterday. Both seem set-up for a potential rebound. On the Dax on a rebound we would use the 100-dma as a resistance to sell again. The Dax has broken the equivalent support observed in CAC that was broken a few days ago. The key support below is 5,450. If we got test it US equities should see a bit of pressure but again from the Dow and Nasdaq charts it seems the lows of Thursday should hold for now. We have interesting potential H&S formation for both the Dow and Nasdaq, with targets on the second shoulder tops around 10,800 and 1,990. Should we bounce back to those levels we will be looking at fresh short recommendations. We have a very similar formation on the Bovespa where our target on the downside at 61,450 was reached (we initiated short recommendation at 71.500). We could easily see the market rebound from these levels.
We added the Vix chart which allowed us to pin the lows in Volatility and forecast the top for the S&P future. The chart is still resolutely bullishfor Vol, but the first decent support is 27 and in fact we could pull back to 20.4 and still remain in a bullish dynamic, so we would advise taking chips off the table for those who followed us, but keep a small position.
Treasuries also seem to be consolidating here and the panic bid may abate for a few days after near record volumes observed in the last couple days. We see support at 118-28 which corresponds both to channel support and the wave 4 of lower order. Keep a close eye on the support if risk aversion dissipates.
The only trend that seems unlikely to abate at this point is Gold's bullish trend. We seem to be set to take out the highs and further accelerate from here. The only danger to the trend is a wave of defaults which would be massively deflationary in theory, but at this points it is unlikely politicians will let that happen. They will only make everyone wait painfully to come up to the obvious conclusion that they will bend and provide the liquidity needed and thereby cause damage to the system.
Good luck trading and have a good weekend,
Nic
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http://wallstreetpit.com/26452-gold-shortage-rumors-abound
yesterdays news Red
if they were "bending" to soften the coming 'reset' that's required to re-establish a new base upon which to build on, that would be fine...
but they seem to be "bending" to sustain the amazingly dysfunctional system that we have in place.
'snap'
I still think we are the ones being bent-over, and no reach around.
A men could get all religous when you see everything arround you collapse...
I've been reading to much of this shit lately and I'm faced with to many facts that just add up.
Lack up credit in businesses all over Europe = check
Growing shortage of basic materials = check
People getting depressed of all this shit = depression = check
And for that last one, I've been reading a lot of shit about what actually describes a depression in a economy. And I think it's actually as easy as one should think. People just get to depressed to even look for a exit anymore. They just go with the flow and see where it will bring them. Loss of hope.
These last few months, I've never seen more adult people with the strongest characters cry and admit to me they don't enjoy working anymore.
These last 2 years have been hard. 2 years ago, I was working in a big company that had overkill in company parties, alcohol exageration,...
Now, the parties are over, everybody goes home on time and conversations only go about how bad it is at work.
Like I said, a man could get all religous about the fact that this house of cards has to go into the deck to have a reshuffle.
Sudden,
There's a reason for what's happening, and it is(to the contrary of most here) , not humans doings...........their is a reason for your feelings...seek and ye shall find.
Well, CRIMEX will have a tough time controlling the Mkt on this one...........EuRoPEANNNNNNNNNS, do not like ETF's, and they know, from a LONG history PHYSICAL baby.
the elliot wavers draw the same bottom trendline on gold but use a lognormal chart which makes the trendline act as resistance up around the 1225. I think gold is going higher but the Prechter camp doesn't believe it. They have been way early on calling for this crash but it is now actually happening. Silver's short squeeze today was interesting I wouldnt be surprised for a quick rise to $21 over the next few weeks.
"The only trend that seems unlikely to abate at this point is Gold's bullish trend. We seem to be set to take out the highs and further accelerate from here. The only danger to the trend is a wave of defaults which would be massively deflationary in theory, but at this points it is unlikely politicians will let that happen."
Maybe. Maybe just testing the top of the range in gold. I just buy some every few weeks. Silver too. Hoping for a more substantial pull back in palladium/platinum.
The push and pull between inflation and deflation is killing me. As always, thanks for your comments Nic. Small quantities of "my precious" frequently seems to average well.
European leaders committed themselves on Friday night to a stricter collective effort at fiscal discipline and called for rapid approval of draft laws aimed at tightening financial market regulation.
wow, tightening regulation, not tightening their runaway spending or enron-style financial maneuvering.
Re: Gold
definitely a large possibility of a selloff simply because some holders need "cash"
But I can't believe it will ever be below $1000
It's not an investment. But it is a safe store of wealth (relatively safe - you have
to take care of it. Safe deposit box? in-house safe? )
And of course "the solution" to "the Morgan woe" is to back a currency in gold. Too late for the greenback and you and me tho--can it get any better? Is there a rational bond trader left? Needless to say I don't hear of anyone wanting to go long the South African Rand--and yet here's planet earth larding up on the Canadian Loonie and every other third world crack pot scheme. All the while oil does it's usual "attack and retreat"--don't fret, though folks. That snake will only coil itself up again to blow all the number crunchin' theorists to smithereens. Kinda scary if you REALLY think of it...It's not about "stuff"--but just only "one stuff."
I think of gold like this.
What are the realistic odds of a Sovereign default? Between 10-20%. Fine. That means I put 10-20% in gold. You may calculate the odds higher or lower than me and should choose to invest accordingly. At this point I am thinking wealth preservation as opposed to speculating. But I work in advertising and only have so much time for markets.
So why do you only want to preserve 10-20% of your wealth ?
At this point my guess that going straight (don't pass go) to a full out default is about 20% I think there is a good chance of a deflationary hiccup that could occur before that happens, where access to actual money (regardless of how worthless it is) will be in short supply. Simple supply and demand, just having it will make it valuable - in the end it will likely be debased as the governemt desperately pumps it into our hot little hands. But during that window I will use it to buy whatever looks like a bargain. So I keep a certain amount in cash. I keep other investments in case I am ultimately just being too paranoid.
None of us really knows exactly how this will play out. Reality has a way of not being just what you've expected - I am just keeping my options open. I'm definitely pro gold, I acquired a significant amount when it was around $300/oz. And at various times along the way here - that has worked out well.
Always remember that even in the midst of chaos trading still goes on. Also, the end game won't be exactly how we want it to be - it never is.
You are correct, of course. But theorizing, as an adjunct to taking action, is necessary to the maintenance of sanity. Visualizing the possible scenarios is part of human nature. (Where is Cog Dis when you need him?) Anyhow, bottom line is the that human mind, just like Nature in general, abhors a vacuum. In this case that would be a vacuum of knowledge. It will be sad to see those of our friends, relatives, and neighbors who have not entertained the possibilities. They will be blindsided and out looking for some culprit to blame, someone to hang, or somebody to go to war with. Going back peacefully into their homes and looking in the mirror is what they ought to do. Pogo said it best: "We have met the enemy and he is us."
This was posted on May 1st - a week before the crash.
'11,250 / 300 is an area of significant resistance and if this level can’t be breached it should signal the end of the March 2009 bear market rally - the weekly DOW chart shows an expanding wedge indicating a significant move is probable - this remains an overbought bear market rally and the uptrend could falter at any time - the VIX index continues to give bullish warnings which is bearish for equities - long term charts of key equity indexes continue to give bearish warnings and the March 2009 lows will be breached in my opinion - USD Index bullish warnings since 2009 on the weekly and monthly chart have not changed and further USD strength and thus EURO weakness is still expected '
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Westport 'survivalist' triggers FBI, police investigation Posted on 05/08/2010 Copy and paste below into your page: (close this pane) <a href="http://www.thehour.com/story/486161/">Westport 'survivalist' triggers FBI, police investigation</a>
NORWALK
By STEVE KOBAK
Hour Staff Writer
A suspicious Craigslist posting from a survivalist looking for persons to deliver 110 gallons of gasoline to his home triggered an investigation that involved Westport and Norwalk Police as well as the FBI on Thursday.
The investigation began when a Stratford man contacted Norwalk Police at 1 p.m. to report a suspicious listing in the "gigs" section on Craigslist, police said.
The man said he was searching for employment on the website, and he found an ad that said: "I need two 55-gallon drums filled with gas delivered to my home. Send me your best price," according to police. The man told police that he believed it was "terrorist in nature."
Norwalk Detective David Orr contacted the FBI and gave them the details of the incident, according to police.
By 9 p.m., police obtained a warrant, and they found out that the ad was posted by a 42-year-old Westport man, police said. Norwalk Police again contacted the FBI, who said they were not interested in the case because the person who posted the ad was not on the no-fly list, had a clean background and did not raise any red flags, according to police.
Still, Norwalk Police went to the Westport man's house with a Westport detective, police said. The Westporter allowed police to enter his home. He told officers that he posted the ad because he is stockpiling items for an "inevitable economic depression," according to police.
The man further explained that Gerald Celente, a business consultant who frequently guests on conservative talk shows, had predicted an economic disaster worse than the 1929 Wall Street crash was on the horizon in the United States, police said.
Celente, who is reputed by the Washington Times to have predicted the 1987 stock market crash and other significant economic events, publishes Trends Journal, a quarterly magazine. He has warned of an "Economic 9/11" and has called for an "Intellectual Revolution" to nonviolently protest "Wall Street greed" and excessive taxation, according to his website.
Officers did not observe anything suspicious in the house, and they spoke with the man's wife, who verified his story, police said. The man allowed police to enter his basement, where he stocked canned goods, Ramen noodles, water, powdered milk and other food items, police said.
The man agreed to take the posting off Craigslist, police said. Norwalk Police contacted the FBI and told the agency about the outcome of the investigation.
Interesting story. Nobody should be storing 110 gallons of gas in an urban setting.
Diesel is OK, but that much gas endangers the entire neighborhood
Depends on how it's stored. In thick 55 gallon drums I'd say go for it. Most people in flordia keep 15 gallons of gas in plastic gas containers along with a 40 lb bottle of propane. And I haven't seen too many neighborhoods burn down.
on his own property... could he have said "no" in this day and age?
kind of oooozes of a "guilty until innocence proven" attitude taken by all involved.
and all parties apparently thought that the general intrusion was OK?
sure - a coupla barrels of gas - solicited, not even delivered... odd... but certainly not illegal.
i'm fairly practical about these kinds of things, but very wary of those "rights" these days.
Global Risk ... what's that
I've uploaded a new DOW chart.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com