Global Tactical Asset Allocation - Commodities
We conclude the Damien Cleusix series on Tactical Asset Allocation by presenting Damien's thoughts on Commodities. "Global growth (China tightening could take the upper hand given investors obsession with the story…) will be the referee with regard to the timing as continued robust growth could mask some of those dynamics for some time but ultimately we will have a correction to be remembered...Observers have focused too much on what happened to financial markets to explain the rapid slowdown we witnessed in 2008-early 2009... our contention is that even without it, we
would probably have a "commodity price too high" induced mild recession..."
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
| First_Quarter_2010_GTAA_Commodities.pdf | 1.67 MB |
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on Sat, 01/23/2010 - 15:00
#203926
Any other data one can use to model sentiment except COT data and bloombergs data?
on Sat, 01/23/2010 - 15:38
#203946
there is a lot of discussion amongst the knowing, as to the longevity of commodities. It all depends on the longevity of the human race. It's not looking good folks.
on Sat, 01/23/2010 - 18:19
#204074
So what exactly is the price of gold?
From the US Mint at $1,410 per ounce.
http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10001&storeId=10001&productId=16049&langId=-1
Or not available at all.
http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?catalogId=10001&storeId=10001&categoryId=13238&langId=-1&parent_category_rn=10191&top_category=10191
on Sat, 01/23/2010 - 21:25
#204219
understand what you are ordering.
from the pricing pdf:
Note 1:The price of each gold product consists of the following components: cost of metal, cost to manufacture (including overhead) and margin. The pricing schedule is based upon a
spot price of gold at $1,100.00 per FTO. At this spot price, the respective approximate average ranges for each component as a percentage of total price are as follows:
cost of metal 66%-74%, cost to manufacture (including overhead) 11% to 19%, and margin 13%.
on Sat, 01/23/2010 - 21:02
#204198
January 9th, 2009? Really.
on Sat, 01/23/2010 - 21:16
#204211
Why's the date Jan, 9th 2009?
on Sat, 01/23/2010 - 21:19
#204215
1089.70
on Sun, 01/24/2010 - 00:07
#204288
Thoughtful and pertinent perspective in the Weekend Australian Financial Review from Diane Lin (Pengana) on Australia's over-confidence in a long term commodities based relationship with China. Her theory, quiet rightly, draws on the Japan experience where the Japanese were heavy commodity importers (in particular iron ore) from Australia during the rebuilding and restructure of their country and economy. Once the 'construction' phase was completed, the requirements for Australia's commodities declined significantly that left us suffering from our over reliance on an single export segment. Seems as though history is now repeating itself. Lin argues that the Chinese development model now moving into high value add with the Chinese already switching from additional industrial capacity to replacing it with more efficient and less polluting plant. Coming full circle again does not bode well for Australia though many will argue that India will still be a major export market. The issue with this is that there will now be many suppliers to a single customer while our major trading partner, China has moved on from being a commodities consumer to a value add economy....just as Japan did. And where will Australia be? Still supplying commodities and waiting for the next big customer.
on Sun, 01/24/2010 - 17:58
#204796
Commodities overvalued....well, considering that no one can afford them ok, but the fact that commodities are NECESSARY to sustain life, well uh well..........uh...........
on Mon, 01/25/2010 - 07:25
#205146
Just back from Cornucopistan, saw:
- all copper mines there are exactly 70 meters deep
- all copper ore has the same high grade
- all copper deposits are the same large size
- all of the energy needed to produce and export smelted ingots is available in unlimited quantity for a fixed price in the local currency, the cornucope.
- Cornucopistan's leaders are carefully montitoring global demand, and producing not-too-much so as to get the best value on their exports.
NEXT week, i'm off to Actualia. In Actualia, i'm told, the situation is quite different:
- Mines are distributed as follows:
- - some easily accessible, many less accessible ;
- - some rich ores, many poor ores
- - some large deposits, many small ones
- most of the easy / big / rich ores have already been heavily expoilted
- the remaining deposits can produce only slowly and at greater (capital and marginal) expense ..
- the ever-increasing energy needed to extract the deeper-and-poorer ores is priced in foreign currency, and the secular trend is definitely up.
Importers of produced commodities are also importing the energy used to produce, which is interesting.