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Global Tactical Asset Allocation - Commodities

Tyler Durden's picture





 

We conclude the Damien Cleusix series on Tactical Asset Allocation by presenting Damien's thoughts on Commodities. "Global growth (China tightening could take the upper hand given investors obsession with the story…) will be the referee with regard to the timing as continued robust growth could mask some of those dynamics for some time but ultimately we will have a correction to be remembered...Observers have focused too much on what happened to financial markets to explain the rapid slowdown we witnessed in 2008-early 2009... our contention is that even without it, we
would probably have a "commodity price too high" induced mild recession..."

 

 

Full pdf here

 


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Sat, 01/23/2010 - 16:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 16:38 | Link to Comment quasi-rent
quasi-rent's picture

there is a lot of discussion amongst the knowing, as to the longevity of commodities.  It all depends on the longevity of the human race.  It's not looking good folks.

Wed, 12/15/2010 - 06:43 | Link to Comment Karston1234
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 19:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 22:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 22:16 | Link to Comment Nolsgrad
Nolsgrad's picture

Why's the date Jan, 9th 2009?

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 22:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sun, 01/24/2010 - 01:07 | Link to Comment Glen
Glen's picture

Thoughtful and pertinent perspective in the Weekend Australian Financial Review from Diane Lin (Pengana) on Australia's over-confidence in a long term commodities based relationship with China. Her theory, quiet rightly, draws on the Japan experience where the Japanese were heavy commodity importers (in particular iron ore) from Australia during the rebuilding and restructure of their country and economy. Once the 'construction' phase was completed, the requirements for Australia's commodities declined significantly that left us suffering from our over reliance on an single export segment. Seems as though history is now repeating itself. Lin argues that  the Chinese development model now moving into high value add with the Chinese already switching from additional industrial capacity to replacing it with more efficient and less polluting plant. Coming full circle again does not bode well for Australia though many will argue that India will still be a major export market. The issue with this is that there will now be many suppliers to a single customer while our major trading partner, China has moved on from being a commodities consumer to a value add economy....just as Japan did. And where will Australia be? Still supplying commodities and waiting for the next big customer.

Sun, 01/24/2010 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Commodities overvalued....well, considering that no one can afford them ok, but the fact that commodities are NECESSARY to sustain life, well uh well..........uh...........

Mon, 01/25/2010 - 08:25 | Link to Comment Auroch
Auroch's picture

Just back from Cornucopistan, saw:

 - all copper mines there are exactly 70 meters deep

 - all copper ore has the same high grade

 - all copper deposits are the same large size

 - all of the energy needed to produce and export smelted ingots is available in unlimited quantity for a fixed price in the local currency, the cornucope.

 - Cornucopistan's leaders are carefully montitoring global demand, and producing not-too-much so as to get the best value on their exports.

NEXT week, i'm off to Actualia. In Actualia, i'm told, the situation is quite different:

 - Mines are distributed as follows:

 - - some easily accessible, many less accessible ;

 - - some rich ores, many poor ores

 - - some large deposits, many small ones

 - most of the easy / big / rich ores have already been heavily expoilted

 - the remaining deposits can produce only slowly and at greater (capital and marginal) expense ..

 - the ever-increasing energy needed to extract the deeper-and-poorer ores is priced in foreign currency, and the secular trend is definitely up.

Importers of produced commodities are also importing the energy used to produce, which is interesting.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 08:19 | Link to Comment sidkof
sidkof's picture

I have been receiving many emails requesting more information about our upcoming ETF. The release date of New York Stock Exchange is planned for mid October with the symbol GTAA. Now that we are finally out of the quiet period I thought I would say a few words about the scraps para orkut portfolio and the Global Fund's approach to tactical asset allocation (GTAA) strategy. Some of the most interesting features are below.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 03:06 | Link to Comment jimmight
jimmight's picture

Finding and shorting Chinese frauds is turning into a nice little cottage industry. Soon everybody is going to be looking for their own.
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Fri, 07/22/2011 - 03:06 | Link to Comment jimmight
jimmight's picture

Finding and shorting Chinese frauds is turning into a nice little cottage industry. Soon everybody is going to be looking for their own.
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