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Global Tactical Asset Allocation - Currencies
More extended insight on Tactical Asset Allocation, this time focusing on currencies. Focus on developed, emerging, sentiment, liquidity, central banks, seasonality and an overview of the main pairs.
As previously, if interested in obtaining a pdf of the report, please email us.
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I agree -- long USD/short AUD in the short term.
What happened to Project Mayhem?
some sorta mayhem probably
Thanks Tyler!
Very good analysis.
How can I get this article as pdf
Damien has been very gracious to me when I email a request for the .pdf version of the file.
You can reach him at:
damien (at) Clue6.com
:D
And Damien, if you're reading...
You tactfully omitted your downside EUR/USD target from the paper.
I have it near 1.270. What say you?
Dear Orly,
I usually do not give targets short-term targets but only long-term ones which are purely fundamentally driven... And here I would really not be surprised to see the Euro below parity once in the next 18-24 months (but do not take this as a forecast...)
For the short to medium-term I listen to what the market has to say and adapt using a combination of quant models and a pinch of discretion...
For now the ST trend for the Euro is down (not rocket science involved here...) Might make a pause between 1.39-1.405 but the trend will remain down, in my book, as long as 1.46 holds... and if we move to 1.39 would say as long as 1.445 holds...
But now I would have an attentive eye on the EURCHF... Nearing levels where the SNB will consider intervening again... Would be nice to have all the positions anticipating this (with a lots of leverage...) since 1.50 shaken out on a quick down move...
Would start building a position here and increase incrementally as the cross fall...
PVJBUS
You can send an e-mail to the address you will find on the first page of the presentation. This will do the trick...
Best regards,
Damien
Panning is what this is. Alas, you will find no gold in them thar currencies.
Dynamic? I hadn't heard that term in respect to the US for years! BS! The DoeLarr has asked for McDonalds as it's last meal, thank you Mr. Buffet.
I have been predicting gold above usd 3'000 before the end of the cycle since 2001... so you do not have to convince me on the USD...
...but as G.Soros said "The dollar is a very weak currency except all the others."
Europe and the UK are in much worse shape than the US but this is something you will only find out slowly in the future... Australia and New-Zealand are bubbles which have yet to pop... Japan needs a lower Yen and the possibility of a full debt crisis there is not to be brushed away, China might revalue its currency but it will be much lower against the usd in 2-3 years time, and then you have a lot of other emerging currencies which might have some investment merit but will move with the others...for now...
My gold forecast was always based on the non-survivability of the current fiat monetary system and what we have witnessed in the past 18 months make the usd 3'000 target conservative...