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Global Tactical Asset Allocation - Equities, Second Quarter Update
Global Tactical Asset Allocation - Equities, Second Quarter Update, submitted by Damien Cleusix
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This theory = FAIL.
See Zimbabwe.
this guy must not have gotten the memo that the market is going up everyday forever. mission accomplished. no one will ever lose money again in the market.
Yes, he's obviously not paying attention. How could he misinterpret this normal market action we've been seeing?
Hugh, we have got to get you and ZH'er, Dixie, together. It is a match made in heaven.
Hey Tyler,
Take a look at this gem. I'm assuming you don't already know about it.
Over 40 billion euro in 28167 claims made against the Kaupthing Bank, 23 Jan 2010
This document contains a list of 28167 claims, totaling over 40 billion euro, lodged against the failed Icelandic bank Kaupthing Bank hf. The document is significant because it reveals billions in cash, bonds and other property held with Kaupthing by a vast number of investors and asset hiders, including Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanly, Exista, Barclays, Commerzbank AG, etc. It was confidentially made available to claimants by the Kaupthing Winding-up committee.
Original source:
http://wikileaks.org/
Are financials going to miss in Q1?
Consider 3 main divisions in the big banks: retail banking (mortgages, loans), card services (credit card), and investment banking (prop trading, bond & stock deals)
Retail banking has been weak in Q1. The Refi boom is over, and the loan spike from the first time homebuyer tax credit peaked in Nov '09. Is there any reason to believe retail banking will be strong?
Card Services is enduring the new credit card laws which took effect on Feb 22nd. Jamie Dimon has said it will cost JPM $750M. That is their entire profit from this division for 2008. Credit card defaults are not getting measurably better and outstanding credit is still shrinking.
Investment banking did loads of high yield bond deals in Q1 but very few IPO deals. The IPO deals are the money-makers, and a recent article noted that even though the bond deals are soaring, the profit margin is very weak.
The unknowns are prop trading results and how they mark their "legacy" assets in Q1.
Marking legacy assets is easy. Determine the number required for Q1 earnings. Then mark assets accordingly.
Let's see. Where did I put that old Enron quarter's end playbook....??
Anyone has a link to downloadable version ?
Thanks
You have to email him and request the pdf version.
Take a remedial grammar class, Damien. Your sentence structure blows.
And your French is perfect, eh, popo?
This is like therapy for those not participating (me), or who are short and keep looking for that evasive top. I fear the more this stuff is advertised, the longer this crap goes on.
OMG -- 68 pages. Lemme 'splain it to ya real simple: it's a gubbermint-sponsored short squeeze. Get the phuck out of the way.
This would have been good back in the old days but it doesn't apply with the new managed markets. Only very measured daily rises are allowed now, so valuations, P/E ratios, fundamentals, even technical patterns, etc. are no longer applicable.
What exactly is the Hindenburg Omen, and how does one recognize it?
When you start to see airships (or any other medium) with huge political party slogans attached to them. It will be then required to choose sides.
Its a fairly odd collection of technical market conditions that, if they all happen, predict a major market collapse. Google it and you can find the definition. It occurred in the spring of 2008, I remember, because I was curious as to whether it would work this time.
Interesting Bullish Percent Index chart. Looking a little toppy.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$BPCOMPQ,uu[d,a]dacannay[d20051001,20100630][pc13!c13f][ila12,26,9!ll14].png
One day people will get tired of playing a game where their hole cards are exposed. When that happens, the jackals will be left to steal from each other until the system crashes upon itself.
I get that there's no recovery, I get that everything is being papered over, but none of that says that SP can't go to 1600.
I would continue reading this, but the grammer prevents me from doing so without a bottle of JD.
It's spelled " grammar " , Mr. Banzai. Now let's all get into that Jack idea.
Err...got mi dare Jacque...For me its the syntax that requires alcohol consumption as you have ably shown.
A little JD and Coke certainly improves my tolerance for this BS.
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