50% drawdown (from current levels) on their industrial metals, crude oil and agricultural positions sometimes in the next 24 months. Demand has been artificially boosted by China strategic reserve building, infrastructure intensive fiscal stimulus, booming demand from the rest of emerging economies and, as the trend persisted, by trend followers and money managers new attraction to the sector (you know it is not correlated so you should buy them to diversify your portfolio... sorry it WAS not correlated...). The introduction of physically-based ETFs is not helping in this matter as it represents a big short-term increase in marginal demand especially when the Fed is still busy implementing QE2." ">

Global Tactical Asset Allocation Q2 Update On Commodities

Tyler Durden's picture

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CrashisOptimistic's picture

Only one commodity matters, and here's the first admission from any official economic org.

"WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Thursday warned that the global economy was entering a period of scarcer oil that could drive prices up rapidly. In new analysis by the Washington-based global financial institution, the IMF said market tensions were increasing between growing demand for oil from fast-growing emerging market economies, like China, and production constraints due to maturing oil fields."

mr66's picture

They need to kick the can down the road.  Forget balanced budgets. They will never happen.  We need more QE, or the consequences will be so bad you will not like to be around.  Just keep printing money and see what happens.

Oracle of Kypseli's picture

As long as Ben is on the gas pedal, so should we. Pm's till he lets go.

Oil is being depleted that's not debatable. What's debatable is the horizon. 5,10,30?

Still too close for comfort. Act accordingly even if you are not sure.

BTW: Gold will be the only medium of exchange if you need any scarce commodities.

long juan silver's picture

'Most commodities remain overvalued..Gold optimisim remains high"


What time is it?

Gold bull circle jerk time.

long juan silver's picture

Does the link describe methods of masturbation using hoofs?


Turd Ferguson's picture

Blah blah blah

Buy silver before it breaks 40. I was waiting for a dip that didn't materialize. Now it looks like 44-45 before the end of the month.


long juan silver's picture

Somewhere a used mattress dealer is missing his sidewalk barker

SumSUN's picture

Yeah turd, i remember Silverfuturist referencing your blog.  I checked it out, looked real good and i was considering buying some puts on SLV.   But did not, couple days later, bought more coins.   I'm glad i did.

earnulf's picture

I was also expecting a dip that has "not yet occured", but I am confident in my current physical position, just looking to add.   Like many I'll probably by at whatever and keep some powder dry for any dip that does occur.    I'm sure that for many of us, a 50% correction would be a massive BTFD!

RobotTrader's picture

Here's my simpleton analysis:

1) IWM and EEM are leading

2) Financials refuse to crack

3) Market continues to buck off catastrophes

4) U.S. Dollar still tanking, no flight to safety bids

5) Gold and oil continue to grind higher

6) Most spectacular parabolic stock charts are in the consumer discretionary sector

There isn't anything really bearish that I can see just yet.

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Robo, I have difficulty making sense of your posts when they don't include half-naked women.

rocker's picture

Sounds like you half back. Where the hell are the full size pics.  We need the stimulus. Sort of like QE3. Feed us.

Oracle of Kypseli's picture


Al the cash that does not flow to the foreclosed home mortgages finds its way to Bed Bath and Beyond and elsewhere.

When we hit the wall, 666 will be a blessing. Think 333


walcott's picture

silver about to rip right through $50 spot. That means $55-60 for physical!

long juan silver's picture

It means nothing of the kind.

High Plains Drifter's picture

but, but , but , silver is a industrial metal......

franzpick's picture

Late-night escape in last 2 hours:  WTI 110.91, Au 1463.90, Ag 39.83

holdbuysell's picture

Is there an assumption in here that those who bought commodities would flee to a different store of value?

Cole Younger's picture

" fast-growing emerging market economies"

Nothing is growing except the debt and the feds balance sheet.

antidisestablishmentarianismishness's picture

50% drawdown, no problem, real men never abandon the ship.

6_7_42's picture

ag $39.96 @ 20:40 PST...guess they're liking the white metal in Mumbai.

RockyRacoon's picture

Some thorough work.   I just had a deja vu moment and thought I was back at the old ZH where serious work was welcomed.

Shame you Turd for your blah, blah, blah comment.  I'm a silver/gold lover as well but the sun will still come up if it corrects.   If it does, there will be reasons, and that's where the article is helpful.

Elmer Fudd's picture

f*n paper traders...

tomster0126's picture

It doesn't matter how far down the horizon it's going to be gone, from here on out the prices are not going to fall, and we need to create a new infrastructure.  Let's legalize industrial hemp for one thing, and get some massively produced and efficient solar cars in the works.