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Global Tactical Asset Allocation Q3 Update: Equities
The latest quarterly slidedeck from Damien Cleusix' Global Tactical Asset Analysis is out and as always it is replete with insightful and exciting observations, outlooks and charts.
His thesis summary:
Markets seems to be in the typically slow and frustrating cyclical
top formation process. Our cyclical models are giving sell signals one
after the other while leverage is reaching levels typical of cyclical
market turns. It would be imprudent to bury the Bull too soon but It
seems to be in bad hape. A contra-trend rally is to beexpected so on and
the behavior of the markets (participants, internals) during this
rebound should be carefully analyzed to decide if we can send the Bulls
obituary (a waterfall decline without intermitting rebound would settle
the case).
We would continue to underweight emerging markets,
Europe and small caps (US, Europe an and emerging markets small caps
could/ will underperform large caps by 3-5% yearly in the next 5-7
years). We would overweight Japan (but hedge the currency risk) and the
US. Buy high quality (domestic-oriented) stocks (and hedge the market
risk when we recommend it). Value and growth are likely to behave badly
in a downturn so value managers won't offer the decorrelated returns
they offered during the 2000-2003 decline. Buy value when value
dispersion is high not low as it is now.
And an update for recent action:
We are put sellers (2.5-4% OTM) (July expiry) on the S&P 500 Russell 2000 on 50% of our hedge (covered put selling). We would sell more on a decline to the 1250-1255 area. More aggressive investors could even buy back part of their hedge outright but will have to be very disciplined if the 1245-50 area on the S&P 500 does not hold.
1245-50 on the S&P 500 is the support/pivot everybody is looking at. As we said in our last strategy pieces, we would put a tail hedge using a VIX call option 2X1 (or even 3X1 backspread as waterfall decline have historically occurred when the market fails to rebound when it should while sentiment is negative and breadth/price deeply oversold.
Depending on what happen at the 1250 level we will have to reassess our tactic as we have to repeat that we do believe that the market is putting in a cyclical top and that it will decline by at least 30% (and is probably going to be much more for many indices/countries) before we can reembark into a new cyclical bull market. Amazing bargains are on their way everywhere (and do not forget to bargain hunt in the PIIGS on real panic)"
Full report:
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Just keep stacking physical silver, people.
Forget the tactical picture inset, look at the larger strategic picture.
Agree sir,
But tactically honestly, and im a defender of hard assets, Silver gonna test lower 30´s 31-27$, then heavy load for next qe3 during last 3Q11-4Q11
But...but..
Al Gore says capitalism can save the worldhttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/al-gore-says-capitalism-can-save-the-wo...
Yup yup.
That and keep your head down and shut up. No need in attracting attention unecessarily.
Don't forget your gold.
Gainesville is running a "99cent over spot" special on bars, thru today. Just bought a few hundred toz.
I mean really? Are you going to eat your silver? If you try to use it as money they can arrest you. You also understand the paper money scam, you think that's a pretty big scam right? Fractional Reserve banking? So you think they can control all that, along with elected bodies but they can't control you and your silver pieces? OK whatever makes you feel safe. LMAO.
Bullshit. I turn silver into paper and visa versa all the time. Any bank is happy to do it. Pull your head out of your ass please. No one knows what my silver and gold store is, most of it is 20+ years old, and yes, it does make one feel safe. I know mexicans that will shoot their grandmother for some silver. So you think nature promises you any kind of security, no there is none, but chance always favors the prepared mind. let me know what people will do for that paper when the shit hits the fan. LMAO.
Sell Spain till 7.770-8.500
Short EWP
http://www.rankia.com/respuestas/831385/images/47657
Other side of the coin again. ;-)
After having been down more than 1% testing lows in the morning, the IBEX-35 finished up 2.18% on double the daily average volume today after finding support at a confluence of pivot, lateral, Fib. retrace, and trendline (slightly pinned through) support.
That on the Friday going into what many have on their calendar as pre-crash weekend.
When assessing the probabilities . . .
Short the pops sir.
Probably good advice. A good case can be made that we saw a short squeeze today with everyone being so well conditioned to expect the traditional stick save on Monday, but one nice squeeze at that.
The IBEX did get a death cross on the daily this week, and the moving averages are negatively aligned on the weekly as are the momo technicals.
The wind came out of the sails a bit EOD in Europe's core too.
Who knows what Monday will bring.
Scalpers' markets.
Have you heard of a bailout? How do you answer the bailout grim reaper that can show it's face anytime? Am I missing something? They annouce another bailout and your shorts will be so far up your ass you will be eating them for lunch. It's all guesswork hugo unless you know something I don't.
Death to the bulls. Moment of truth. Blade going in. Cut the ears.
Whooooah! No mercy in the house tonight ladies and gentlemen.
Blade and blood. With a little bit of baying to boot.
;-)
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/06/17/nuclear-american-cross-other-...
the ECB is gonna print, i don't know how but i'm sure they will find a way. the problem is the german constitution, but judging from the markets today i'm guessing it's a done deal
Anyone seen where I put the USDJPY?
80.00
gonna be back to 77-75?
Im not AntiBulls, im Long /Short Trader,
Just hate the permabullishment of the keynesian model based in inflation and printing.
Still waiting for that big plunge in the market that will usher in qe3.........not
Dollah's got to rise up this summer so it has room below to ease the markets up during the last quarter. If not so, max pain will have a whole new meaning.
Physical and mean it.
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