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Global Tactical Asset Allocation Q4 Update: Commodities
The third update in Damien Cleusix' Q4 update series has been released, this one focusing on commodities. The attached presentation is one of the most comprehensive observations on what may happen to global commodities, with an emphasis on the "China factor." Damien's observation: "Most commodities are now greatly overvalued. As with other assets it does not really matter in the short-term (as long as the trend is positive) but it is paramount for longer-term projections." What does the future hold should the China wave ebb? "This increased elasticity of demand will work both ways... The China buying spree will abate as the strategic reserves are completed, the fiscal stimulus projects are being built (and we will have new waves later but this is another story but as you know we are not as bullish as the consensus on 2030 and beyond China, and all other countries by the way, commodities demand... we are too maybe confident on human ingenuity...) and the housing markets cools." All this and much more inside.
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Chart: GC
Gold futures look like they're ready to correct. Good luck..."bitchez."
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/09/gc.html
Lol, everything is ready to correct now that Q3 is almost on the books.
Well you're betting against a guy whom has admitted he will fly around in a helicopter and make it rain Ben Franklins.
I must warn - He has a solid track record.
Indeed, it is our good fortune to have a corrective. I'm hoping for a $100 smackdown that will allow me to deploy additional fiat currency into gold, silver, mining stocks in large size. Strong hands will come out to do the same. Your charts will never teach you conviction sir.
it already corrected, about 50 cents last night
"Most commodities are now greatly overvalued."
Oil was trading at $150 p/b before trillions of dollars were created ex nihilo. The debt that caused this price distortion to occur has been replaced by dollars that can't be wiped out. These dollars now exist Ad infinitum.
Commodities have been rising against a declining economy because the dollars they are priced in have been diluted. Inflation due to monetary inflation is a bitch.
Check USD/CHF
Marc Faber warned us over and over that Feddie Ben would pump like a money shot porn star.
Everything is going to crash and we are all going to die!!!!!!! Now back to your regularly scheduled programming...
The only thing that will crash is the dollar.
Chart: CL
Crude.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/09/cl.html
Interesting and disappointing that this report did not touch on the outlook for silver, which has a number of unique market fundamentals.
It I read correctly they see a top at $3K in gold. Silver should do as well if not better.
Correction at 1350 area.
Gold To Go ATMs dispense precious metals to the superwealthy, heading to the states this year http://www.engadget.com/2010/09/29/gold-to-go-atms-dispense-precious-met...
What, again with the gold dispensing vending machine?
When I can walk into my bank (like the Chinese do) and buy gold I'll worry.
I like the gold dispensing machines. They look like a solid investment. Where can I buy one?
Machines? Easy. Stocking charge? Not so much.
Great fundamental and sentiment analysis.
Curious to see how far Uncle Sugar, Ben and the Sack can throw this out of whack by freebasing currency.
Stay alert!
thanks for the commentary. any insights on hiho-silver? away? oh wait, let me rephrase..any insight as to when I should be gearing up to take a wheel barrow to the dealer? a pick up truck?
Gold To Go ATMs dispense precious metals to the superwealthy, heading to the states this year http://www.engadget.com/2010/09/29/gold-to-go-atms-dispense-precious-met...
There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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