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Global Trade Collapsing, China Now Japan's Top Trade Partner

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The Japan External Trade Organization has released its latest trade figures, which paint a grim picture for foreign trade by the world's second largest economy. Year to date imports have dropped by 31.9% to $252.9 billion, while exports have plunged 36.8% to $252.2 billion. Most stunning is the disclosure on trade flows with the United States: exports to the US have dropped by 43.5% to $40.5 billion, resulting in Japan's largest positive trade balance. Another development is that China has now replaced the US as Japan's primary trade destination. However that is not saying much: trade with China has declined for the 8th consecutive month. The last fact is among the primary reasons why the Chinese Central Bank has blown a credit bubble of epic proportions in order to mitigate the unprecedented collapse in Chinese trade with its traditional trade partners.

To make up for the estimated 20% decline in Chinese exports, and in order to "maintain" the artifical minimum 8% growth of the economy, the Chinese bank has to redirect consumption to internal sources of demand, which can only be achieved by providing virtually free credit. The problem with that is that practically all of mainland China has taken the free cash and invested it in the stock market. The eventual collapse of this fake liquidity transfer will be one for the ages.

In the meantime, JETRO's notes the following on Japanese-Chinese trade relations.

Overview of Japan-China trade in the first half of 2009

Japan’s trade with China posted negative growth (year-on-year) for
eight consecutive months, from November 2008 to June 2009. The decline
was attributed to China’s economic slowdown and a drop in external
demand.

In the first quarter of 2009, imports and exports were down across
the board due to weakened economies in Japan and China, as well as a
build-up of inventories in China as external demand fell off.

The second quarter, however, saw an increase in exports of some
machinery-related products, fueled by increased infrastructure
investment in China due to the government’s 4-trillion-yuan
(approximately 56 trillion yen) economic stimulus package. A recovery
was also seen in exports of parts and materials used in production of
finished goods for sale in China, reflecting growing demand in the
country for home appliances in part due to the government’s consumption
promotion measures such as the “Home Appliances to the Countryside”
subsidy program. In addition, imports of some home appliances and food
products showed signs of recovery in the quarter.

The drop in Japan’s trade with China (with falls in both imports
and exports) was smaller than that for the nation’s overall trade. As a
result, the share of Japan-China trade rose to 20.4% of Japan’s total
trade, the highest level ever (on a semi-annual basis). Japan’s exports
to China also set a record (also on a semi-annual basis), making the
country Japan’s largest export destination and eclipsing the US for the
first time.

And here is the summary for year-to-date exports and imports as presented by JETRO.

 

 

 


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Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:33 | Link to Comment Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

Yeah so we have global economic collapse basically... Seven months into the year -- 31.9% drop in imports, 36.8% drop in exports, and 43.5% drop in exports to the U.S. counts as collapse in my book.

 

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:38 | Link to Comment Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

OMG...the sky is falling...;-(

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:42 | Link to Comment Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

more cowbell!

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:45 | Link to Comment SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

On that note I'm buying 10,000 shares of DRYS in the morning.  Goin to fly, I guess.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 01:25 | Link to Comment D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

If anyone is interested I went long SP500 via UPRO today, that should be the surest signal this thing is goin' down... just fyi....don't say I didn't tell you...

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 01:57 | Link to Comment AndItsGone
AndItsGone's picture

I went short via SPXU, just as powerful a bullish signal. Clearly, the S&P will now go exactly flat forever, resulting in the slow depreciation of both our investments to fees and expenses.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 22:23 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:50 | Link to Comment ng2amarinefunk (not verified)
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 03:18 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:38 | Link to Comment I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

 

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:43 | Link to Comment MountainHawk
MountainHawk's picture

When is the stock market going to get hammered again? Everyday, it goes up defying all odds.... any guesses to when we might see some 'serious' pull-back...

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:46 | Link to Comment Pizza Delivery Man
Pizza Delivery Man's picture

Somepoint between now and the future.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:49 | Link to Comment Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

During the Thanksgiving day after hours market in Bhutan.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:51 | Link to Comment SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

Now that's precision.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:53 | Link to Comment Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Between 4pm and 6am ET, usually Sun-Thurs.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:26 | Link to Comment TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

When China appreceites the yuan.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:43 | Link to Comment peoplesdemocrat...
peoplesdemocraticsocialistrepublicofmaryland's picture

Hmmmm....no green shoots there......

 

Thx TD!

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 21:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 22:01 | Link to Comment waterdog
waterdog's picture

Is it true that Mr. Durden was on the radio today?

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 22:15 | Link to Comment Mannwich
Mannwich's picture

Yes, I listened to Tyler's long interview with Pimm Fox on Bloomberg radio.  Couldn't believe they gave you so much air time.  Good stuff.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 14:10 | Link to Comment phaesed
phaesed's picture

Does anyone have a link to a copy of the recording?

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 22:04 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 22:06 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 07:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 22:08 | Link to Comment Commissionable
Commissionable's picture

TD, piggy back on Mountain Hawk here, when is this collapse in the US Market coming, China dropped 3.7% and we closed up for the day, all the charts you post pose a debacle of monumental sizes and yet 10,000 dow here we come? Being as Bearish as I am, I don't see the catalyst which will bring the runnaway train to a screaming hault or even right off the tracks. Whats your forecast, again im short and staying short......the pain is not even an issue now, forget stop the bleeding..its way beyond that.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:36 | Link to Comment ng2amarinefunk (not verified)
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:18 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:01 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

I agree in asking the rhetoric be turned down.  More signal, less noise.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 07:35 | Link to Comment I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

At least get a better avatar. I'll let you in on a little secret, being a geek is really not cool, we still make fun of you behind your back. Your face is scaring the children, dude.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 22:18 | Link to Comment Dr Hackenbush
Dr Hackenbush's picture

Talk about the 'light-rail' laying its own track. 

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 22:22 | Link to Comment lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Don't worry. The U.S. still has nuclear armaments and helicopters that crash to keep the free markets safe from democracy.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:54 | Link to Comment ng2amarinefunk (not verified)
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 06:34 | Link to Comment ratava
ratava's picture

lol, you are my fav troll

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:03 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

Pray tell what is the analysis you have that contradicts what I'm reading.

'Cause what I'm reading that says "China stimulus went into stock market" is really, really f*ckin' good, man.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 22:27 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 22:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:01 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

It can't get any worse. Green shoots of bamboo everywhere. Green shoots!

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:02 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Trade is meaningless in the New New Economy.

Trading is all that matters.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:00 | Link to Comment ng2amarinefunk (not verified)
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:04 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

Question: When will the market collapse?

Answer: When things are so bad that no exchange nor institution will be able to pay off any still-existing shorts.

Doesn't seem fair, but that's the way it is.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:06 | Link to Comment poydras
poydras's picture

This June data has been out for a while.  We (USA) are the world's trade patsies.  I find the Japan trade data most interesting.   Conditions have improved, but are way off peaks.

I suspect the world will help us out to some extent.  That extent involving a noticeable decline in our standard of living.  No Virginia, you can't keep on borrowing.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:21 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 09:27 | Link to Comment gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Amen brother!

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 13:06 | Link to Comment acrneer (not verified)
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:25 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:33 | Link to Comment ng2amarinefunk (not verified)
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:33 | Link to Comment Seth Davis
Seth Davis's picture

I wonder if china already knew all this crap and maybe be the reason why  they keep trying to get their hands on every natural resource possible this past year.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:42 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

I'm sure the Chinese had it in their string of possible scenarios.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:08 | Link to Comment ng2amarinefunk (not verified)
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 01:04 | Link to Comment Seth Davis
Seth Davis's picture

Out of plain curiosity what do you think is that,"something else happening in China".

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 03:34 | Link to Comment Charles Wilson
Charles Wilson's picture

There is no/not nearly enough water in the upper half of the country.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 06:36 | Link to Comment eggy123
eggy123's picture

Bingo. Not nearly enough water for agriculture, let alone the massive demand for fresh water in manufacturing. More water suppy being polluted every day. Siberia has to be in the crosshairs.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:05 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

India has the same problem...

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:06 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

Shit, you just made a good point that the next conflict could be China vs. Russia over Siberian water.  Fuck.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 18:05 | Link to Comment eggy123
eggy123's picture

Russia cannot defend thier borders from Chinese "settlers", a bloodless invasion:

http://brooksreview.wordpress.com/2009/05/01/leery-bear-rising-dragon-li...

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 06:26 | Link to Comment whacked
whacked's picture

Go do a bit of reading on Pettis and the logical assumptions and alternatives that he has put forward on China.

http://mpettis.com/

He knows his stuff ... last 4 articles make excellent reading.

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 08:00 | Link to Comment I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

Whacked, agree whole-heartedly, I trust no one more than Pettis in regards to China and some broader macro ideas. He keeps a very open mind, and publishes any good counter arguments to his theses.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:33 | Link to Comment michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

A friend in need is a pain in the ass

hooked on debt mining. They can jump

anytime so economist can use a shovel

to be truly helpfull in this retarded postion

and legacy left to our future. There assholes.

 

 

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:37 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:00 | Link to Comment My cognitive di...
My cognitive dissonance's picture

TD,

I find your title amusing and surreal.

In my life time. Unbelievable.

My favorite is P622012 from the side ads.

Schwinge.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:55 | Link to Comment hohack
hohack's picture

Mario Brothers is getting harder day by day.   . .  ..  .

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:57 | Link to Comment Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

 

Is it just me or does beer  and Pink Floyd mix well with global system failure

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:10 | Link to Comment My cognitive di...
My cognitive dissonance's picture

That's the rhetorical question my friend.

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 06:59 | Link to Comment My cognitive di...
My cognitive dissonance's picture

The "Junk" flagger is out again.

 

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:17 | Link to Comment My cognitive di...
My cognitive dissonance's picture

Sorry, don't you mean "Jack" Daniels?

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:32 | Link to Comment My cognitive di...
My cognitive dissonance's picture

I did.

And I stand corrected.

Thanx.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:35 | Link to Comment My cognitive di...
My cognitive dissonance's picture

I understand.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 09:48 | Link to Comment gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Classic.....ROTFLMAO

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:22 | Link to Comment Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

This my first "junk" flag!   I'm so proud!

 

sam adams down the hatch!

 

also:   So its econ related  --  Marla, officially I am in favor of selling Calofornia to China in order to settle the national debt.  We can float Granolaville across the Atlantic.  Additionally, to settle our debt with Japan, we can send them Bernanke's facial hair.  Surprise!

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 07:00 | Link to Comment My cognitive di...
My cognitive dissonance's picture

You didn't deserve it my friend.

Obviously, something was lost in the translation.

The "Junk" didn't come from N.A.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 07:04 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Hey My Cog.; check out the new troll ng2amarine funk; hes been trolling for almost 8 hrs now. TD should REALLY do something about this stuff; its getting pretty out of control.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 07:23 | Link to Comment My cognitive di...
My cognitive dissonance's picture

Morning Cheeky B.

He's really is taking himself a little too seriously, even for a troll.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:43 | Link to Comment Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

You may say to yourself -- "Project Mayhem, you are approximately six beers deep.  Why on Earth  would you suggest selling California to the Chinese?   California  is a wonderful place."

 

Well  ssir or madame,  I will tell you why.  This video explains why we MUST sell California to the Chinese  --  immediately.

 

http://failblog.org/2009/08/20/public-speaker-fail/

 

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 04:09 | Link to Comment ng2amarinefunk (not verified)
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

I was being sarcastic  geez does anyone have a sense of humor left.  

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 08:54 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Project Mayhem; don't mind him, hes been trolling the site from 5 am ( that's London Time )

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 09:52 | Link to Comment Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

I point to the theory of relativity as an example of simple brilliance. The next time you gaze at your collection of books that were, I have no doubt, carefully chosen to impress unsuspecting visitors, you may want to pick up a few, blow the dust off, and read the content.

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 07:32 | Link to Comment Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

That is really funny.  But so true....But scary is the fact that these are the Pelosi People!!!

I have noticed that the MSM has addressed the Narco Fires in Santa Cruz???  Tony: Aww, Alex, we had some problems you know, your man he wouldn't listen to me so I had to cancel his fucking contract.

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 08:02 | Link to Comment I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

LSD, the Wizard of Oz on mute, and Dark Side of the Moon is the trifecta my friend.

Thu, 08/20/2009 - 23:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:28 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 00:55 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Australia

Japan

New Zealand

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 03:53 | Link to Comment michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

Notes: 8/1/09 yoy reality surface lag
Overall sales were down 38% primarily due to decreased selling volumes of 30%, reflecting lower volumes across all regions North America , Latin America, Asia, Europe/Middle East/Africa and all product lines due to the continued global recession as well as destocking by our customers. We were lucky and adjusted and senior management made tough choices.
I was rather close to initial estimates it was 40% as posted.
My opinion was a 40 percent lagging drop Sun May 24, 2009 6:14 pm<====== then, to overall demand. I do not know now at all
when stabilization will accure.

Just a spoke in the wheel I was wondering what the real numbers where.

Today that report should of been discerned already in the public eye. It is amazing how slow the info wheel does move on information to the planet.

Given how fragile data can be in a context to reality animal spirits comes to mind. As we are today volume is up to segements.

http://www.inquisitr.com/33732/10-year-old-girl-fined-50-for-operating-a-lemonade-stand-without-a-license/

Long live the only free market.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 13:06 | Link to Comment acrneer (not verified)
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 01:19 | Link to Comment Seth Davis
Seth Davis's picture

worst case scenerio china takes over the world and we revert to eating noodles with sticks and growing rice patties....lol

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 02:46 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

OR http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Book_of_Communism

P.S ( fuck you junk flagger asshole ) thats no directed towards you Seth

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 05:07 | Link to Comment ng2amarinefunk (not verified)
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 07:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

All you old men without a sense of humor please go back to Seeking Alpha k thx. 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 08:04 | Link to Comment I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

How did the Chinese ever miss the fork? I mean, they don't use big stilts or some shit instead of pitchforks do they?

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 01:40 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 01:41 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Futures are showing a considerable drop at opening.

But alas, it will be a good time to buy more stocks.

Ever since the day that GM declared bankruptcy and the markets shot up 200 points that very day, I stopped trading on facts, fundamentals or news.

If anything, its better to be a contrarian and go against common sense.

This market was overbought 2 freakin' months ago. It doesn't matter and nobody cares. Trade with it, make money and be happy. Who really gives a shit about anything else. Govt doesn't. The boyz at GS don't. Your next door neighbor makes money this way. Don't miss out. DOW 20,000 here we come.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 08:49 | Link to Comment texpat
texpat's picture

Yeah, until someone sold USD like a mofo this morning. Fuckers.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 01:46 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 02:28 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 02:47 | Link to Comment Bthewee
Bthewee's picture


Why does the FED stop buying Treasuries for one week (Aug. 13-Aug. 23, 2009) you might ask??? Why, dear sheeple, the answer is, to allow Goldman Sachs to steer the heard into an ever-closer tighter pack for picking off the weak and tired. Get rid of the “Shorts” and you can control the market (on Options Expiration Week, no less).  With no one left to short their (F.E.D.) position, they can move the herd any way they want. (Buy low – Remember!)

 

So go the “Day Traders” (Quaint little group, they really believe their doing something productive) and small hedgy firms still trading the market these days.

 

Tell me…  how much trading has the average 401K toting American done in the last 60 days??? – None – Some – or …not nearly enough to raise the market to the level we see today.

(I’ll go with -  “… not nearly”…)

 

SO, … who is left still trading everyday?? Certainly not the masses as most would hope. Money on the sidelines is still firmly parked on the sidelines (in a steel vault buried in the back yard of most of the people still working). Cash is still the King on Main street. (As the latest consumer spending data clearly points out) Only the hard-core day traders are left at Wall & Hanover, and they certainly cannot raise the market as we have seen in the past few weeks.

 

No, my dear friends only the Blackrock’s, PIMCO’s and Goldman’s of the world, still have enough dry powder to manipulate the market these past weeks. If you are one of the lowely options traders relying upon your “Vectorvest” screens, you have already lost. And now you know it. (Your now trading commodities futures in a vain attempt to recoup your Leman gap, Good Luck!). You just can’t figure out why you lost out on the biggest bull surge in modern history, can you? You still think it’s market driven, …poor fools, - Not.

 

Today, the sheeple are being driven to the great cliff once more. Look out below. Your 401K’s are in the crosshairs, and then your day trading nest egg is next. Get out of the market sheeple, and into cash, September 09 cometh.

 

 

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 03:01 | Link to Comment Quantum Noise
Quantum Noise's picture

Green shoots a la CNBC:

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/COHR/tab/5

COHR reported 3rd qtr 2009 earnings of $-0.09 per share on 8/4/09. This beat the $-0.08 consensus of the 4 analysts covering the company.

 

Yup, it beat the heck out of these analysts alright.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 03:37 | Link to Comment Econocataclysm
Econocataclysm's picture

Hey everybody, come on over and burn off some of that frustration blowing away zombie bankers:

http://www.econocataclysm.com/day-traders-of-the-dead-video-game/

Watch out for the Mega-CEO's, they take lots of hits to kill but they drop lots of stuff too. If you can get a rocket launcher then keep it, it's good for crowd control at the zombie banks when they really start swarming you. Enjoy!

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 07:13 | Link to Comment Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

China's electricity usage is down and now we find out its petroleum usage is down.

Odd for an economy growing at 8.5%.

Perhaps China really is a miracle economy!

They're raising capital standards for banks soon so then we'll get to see them continue to grow at 8% in the face of an enormous credit squeeze (because their banks are even more addicted to ponzi growth for survival than ours)

The only figures you can believe are the ones they can't fake

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 13:05 | Link to Comment acrneer (not verified)
Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

Don't panic everyone.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/21/news/companies/bernanke/index.htm?sectio...

Bernanke: Economy could grow soon

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!