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Global Trade Collapsing, China Now Japan's Top Trade Partner
The Japan External Trade Organization has released its latest trade figures, which paint a grim picture for foreign trade by the world's second largest economy. Year to date imports have dropped by 31.9% to $252.9 billion, while exports have plunged 36.8% to $252.2 billion. Most stunning is the disclosure on trade flows with the United States: exports to the US have dropped by 43.5% to $40.5 billion, resulting in Japan's largest positive trade balance. Another development is that China has now replaced the US as Japan's primary trade destination. However that is not saying much: trade with China has declined for the 8th consecutive month. The last fact is among the primary reasons why the Chinese Central Bank has blown a credit bubble of epic proportions in order to mitigate the unprecedented collapse in Chinese trade with its traditional trade partners.
To make up for the estimated 20% decline in Chinese exports, and in order to "maintain" the artifical minimum 8% growth of the economy, the Chinese bank has to redirect consumption to internal sources of demand, which can only be achieved by providing virtually free credit. The problem with that is that practically all of mainland China has taken the free cash and invested it in the stock market. The eventual collapse of this fake liquidity transfer will be one for the ages.
In the meantime, JETRO's notes the following on Japanese-Chinese trade relations.
Overview of Japan-China trade in the first half of 2009
Japan’s trade with China posted negative growth (year-on-year) for
eight consecutive months, from November 2008 to June 2009. The decline
was attributed to China’s economic slowdown and a drop in external
demand.In the first quarter of 2009, imports and exports were down across
the board due to weakened economies in Japan and China, as well as a
build-up of inventories in China as external demand fell off.The second quarter, however, saw an increase in exports of some
machinery-related products, fueled by increased infrastructure
investment in China due to the government’s 4-trillion-yuan
(approximately 56 trillion yen) economic stimulus package. A recovery
was also seen in exports of parts and materials used in production of
finished goods for sale in China, reflecting growing demand in the
country for home appliances in part due to the government’s consumption
promotion measures such as the “Home Appliances to the Countryside”
subsidy program. In addition, imports of some home appliances and food
products showed signs of recovery in the quarter.The drop in Japan’s trade with China (with falls in both imports
and exports) was smaller than that for the nation’s overall trade. As a
result, the share of Japan-China trade rose to 20.4% of Japan’s total
trade, the highest level ever (on a semi-annual basis). Japan’s exports
to China also set a record (also on a semi-annual basis), making the
country Japan’s largest export destination and eclipsing the US for the
first time.
And here is the summary for year-to-date exports and imports as presented by JETRO.
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Yeah so we have global economic collapse basically... Seven months into the year -- 31.9% drop in imports, 36.8% drop in exports, and 43.5% drop in exports to the U.S. counts as collapse in my book.
OMG...the sky is falling...;-(
more cowbell!
On that note I'm buying 10,000 shares of DRYS in the morning. Goin to fly, I guess.
If anyone is interested I went long SP500 via UPRO today, that should be the surest signal this thing is goin' down... just fyi....don't say I didn't tell you...
I went short via SPXU, just as powerful a bullish signal. Clearly, the S&P will now go exactly flat forever, resulting in the slow depreciation of both our investments to fees and expenses.
OMFG AWESOME GREEN SHEWTZ@@@!!!Eleventy!
yeh, great 'tradeable' information, for me to know that THEY, the 99/100 now know - the critical mass has been achieved,
and faster than you can say 1987 program trading, i think maybe August 21 2009 Friday will come down as the greatest Magician Show in History - the 'trickster' RAVEN, massed for the last couple of days 'in conference' -
how to do the 'final fleecing' of Joe Six Pack and his Metastock on the laptop, trying to beat out Goldmans neuronet - a day in history that Grandpa will tell his children in the year 2o45
its NOT the facts,
its the Perception of the facts, is God in the Oxford University Quad, perceiving and conceiving, creating the RealMoment, the Existential Reality?
Is not Berkeley the Red schoolhouse?,but everyone KNOWS THAT! really? really so, eh?
the old Bishops Solipsism ? Shall we NOW see something NOBODY can even remember this day in history - or shall it be another banal nothing happening sort of day?
You are not one of us, your comments make no sense. I do not believe you are crazy, I just believe you are either a robot or trying to discredit this blog or both.
They do make sense, you just have to think a little to understand them. Did it occured to you that not everybody in this world is a native english speaker, maybe.
Denise, this is your producer. I'm waiting........ Swallow you bitch. Good, now get on the table..... Good. Now shut the fuck up while I,...I....Oh yeah. You know you're getting a little loose there, we're going to have to take you back to the doc and put in a few more honeymoon stitches.
When is the stock market going to get hammered again? Everyday, it goes up defying all odds.... any guesses to when we might see some 'serious' pull-back...
Somepoint between now and the future.
During the Thanksgiving day after hours market in Bhutan.
Now that's precision.
Between 4pm and 6am ET, usually Sun-Thurs.
When China appreceites the yuan.
Hmmmm....no green shoots there......
Thx TD!
some late night listening via Bloomberg:
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Markets/Analyst_Calls/vrT.qGWIoYPk.mp3
Is it true that Mr. Durden was on the radio today?
Yes, I listened to Tyler's long interview with Pimm Fox on Bloomberg radio. Couldn't believe they gave you so much air time. Good stuff.
Does anyone have a link to a copy of the recording?
TD, I need to piggy back off Mountainhawk in a way. I am also bearish and have been getting hammered being short, still short, and will be. But you haven't forecasted time frame in which we can see the ultimate collapse and debacle. All the charts and indicators you are throwing up every five minutes show that the end is near and that the monetization will come to a certain skidding hault. Don't be misunderstood I am not seeking your stock advice, I am short and will continue to be....your input is appreciated.
So ....I'll be the first to say it....
"GLOBAL TRADE BETTER THAN EXPECTED!!!"
FUCK YEA!!!! WWWWWAAAHHHOOOO>>>> BUY BUY BUY....HIT THE BID HIT THE BID!!!!!
GS commodity desk ready to take oil parabolic tomorrow....
think you mean "hit the OFFER" (or ask)
TD, piggy back on Mountain Hawk here, when is this collapse in the US Market coming, China dropped 3.7% and we closed up for the day, all the charts you post pose a debacle of monumental sizes and yet 10,000 dow here we come? Being as Bearish as I am, I don't see the catalyst which will bring the runnaway train to a screaming hault or even right off the tracks. Whats your forecast, again im short and staying short......the pain is not even an issue now, forget stop the bleeding..its way beyond that.
ANOTHER FOLLOWER, 'please tell me' best YOU avoid 'trading' in the market, and go back to your job-site, thank you, keep cranking out the canned goods, and stuff PLEASE
I think you should focus on posting intelligent stuff on this site and not your bullshit theories and rants. Tone it down a little bit man you are just degrading this site. I've been reading Zero Hedge since January and the comments section used to yield a great amount of information from unbiased people. Your complaining seems retarded to say the least and I'd appreciate it if you took your rants elsewhere, pal.
I agree in asking the rhetoric be turned down. More signal, less noise.
At least get a better avatar. I'll let you in on a little secret, being a geek is really not cool, we still make fun of you behind your back. Your face is scaring the children, dude.
Talk about the 'light-rail' laying its own track.
Don't worry. The U.S. still has nuclear armaments and helicopters that crash to keep the free markets safe from democracy.
Yes, indeed, we do more than the entire rest of the World combined - AND THAT SIRE is the REASON why the USA dollar shall prevail, just in case good common sense does not
lol, you are my fav troll
Do not let your emotions overtake your rational investment decisions. China's growth is not a bubble folks. There are decades of pent up domestic demand growth yet to play out.
Pray tell what is the analysis you have that contradicts what I'm reading.
'Cause what I'm reading that says "China stimulus went into stock market" is really, really f*ckin' good, man.
I have substantially invested in credit default swaps on Schrödinger's cat. Everyone, please, do not look in the box.
Green shoots are piling up at the ports waiting to be shipped. Saw it on CNBS...
It can't get any worse. Green shoots of bamboo everywhere. Green shoots!
Trade is meaningless in the New New Economy.
Trading is all that matters.
perfect
'trading stocks' without World Trade ain't feasible,
fortunately World Trade will continue, chasened a bit, but the better for it, and 'Trading Stocks' will, too, continue -
the smart money will continue to fleece the dumb money, EVEN IF THE PLAYING TABLE WERE LEVEL,
there's really SOME people who just shouldn't be 'trading stocks' at all, they just don't get it, won't get it and will wash out totally, very very soon
Question: When will the market collapse?
Answer: When things are so bad that no exchange nor institution will be able to pay off any still-existing shorts.
Doesn't seem fair, but that's the way it is.
This June data has been out for a while. We (USA) are the world's trade patsies. I find the Japan trade data most interesting. Conditions have improved, but are way off peaks.
I suspect the world will help us out to some extent. That extent involving a noticeable decline in our standard of living. No Virginia, you can't keep on borrowing.
Just heard a decidedly non-green shoot on CNN International:
9.2% of all US mortgages are 30 days or more behind, and 13% of all homeowners are termed "in trouble" on their mortgage. This excludes the millions already foreclosed upon.
The only way there is any "bottom" in this data is that perhaps homeowners will be using their mortgage notes instead of Charmin.
Somehow---I am not clever enough to determine the convoluted illogic---this has to be wildly bullish for BAC and C and WFC, so I expect another 8% up day for the likes of C.
Trade collapsing? Now that the S&P500 has reached 1000, Kotok and others are talking about it regaining the "Lehman Gap" and reaching 1200, possibly as soon as October.
Madness!!!
I'm glad I'm sitting this thing out in cash. If I had massively shorted this thing like I wanted to, I'd be having my arse handed to me by the green-shoot smoking crowd.
Amen brother!
Another interesting day in bizarro world. Must kill dollar, must prop markets
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
Trade collapsing? Now that the S&P500 has reached 1000, Kotok and others are talking about it regaining the "Lehman Gap" and reaching 1200, possibly as soon as October.
Madness!!!
I'm glad I'm sitting this thing out in cash. If I had massively shorted this thing like I wanted to, I'd be having my arse handed to me by the green-shoot smoking crowd.
Get your rally hats!
It's show time!
Is second stimulus package coming soon out of WH ? Any rumors / leaks on that ?
well, there you go, Japan was 'right' afterall, the 'Greater Far East CoProsperity Sphere of 1935 - in which China was 'liberated' by the Japanese, and Singapore too,
from the British Imperial Empire...Oh, too along with 20,000 overly Europeanized ethnic Chinese, and some few, too, in Nanking and Shanghai - it all took only a week or so of thorough ethnic/social cleansing, and some rape for the JAP soldiers as substitute for bad and near no-wage
1935, now 2009 how very very interesting, huh
and fortunate for China, since Japan DOES has a middle class 'market in depth' to sell to...
only trouble HERE is 'memory' SOME people in China have NOT forgotten,
and it ain't over, the resentment, no matter how many official apologies from the Japanese -
ah so but it was so very long ago, so very long ago...no way Jose!
Almost every soap opera/movie made in China is about the beastly Japs raping and murdering their way through China in the thirties and forties. Usual scenario centers on some winsome Chinese single mom with a couple of cute kids in tow, formerly married to a communist resistance fighter murdered horribly by the Japs.
Cut to ghastly rape/murder scene of said mom with kids making a miracle escape from the Nipponese. It all ends up with the Jap General getting what's coming to him at the hands of another heroic Communist resistance fighter (the fact that the commies did very little against the Japanese at the time is neither here nor there).
This shit has NOT been forgotten. Ask any Chinese national about Japan and stand well back from the resulting spray.
Almost every soap opera/movie made in China is about the beastly Japs raping and murdering their way through China in the thirties and forties. Usual scenario centers on some winsome Chinese single mom with a couple of cute kids in tow, formerly married to a communist resistance fighter murdered horribly by the Japs.
Cut to ghastly rape/murder scene of said mom with kids making a miracle escape from the Nipponese. It all ends up with the Jap General getting what's coming to him at the hands of another heroic Communist resistance fighter (the fact that the commies did very little against the Japanese at the time is neither here nor there).
This shit has NOT been forgotten. Ask any Chinese national about Japan and stand well back from the resulting spray.
I wonder if china already knew all this crap and maybe be the reason why they keep trying to get their hands on every natural resource possible this past year.
I'm sure the Chinese had it in their string of possible scenarios.
Oh come on! Racist or something,
3500 years of Civilization, feast, famine, war, and NOW through the late 1970's, the 1980's, the 1990's, the early 2000's from USA University Trained Engineers, Scientists, Economists, Architects - our very own Western Civilization digested, assimulated, synergized -
they KNEW, they know, they are NOW, not fleeing from the dollar, not 'having tasted Contango' stockpiling copper, and firmed up on ANZAC and Brazilian iron ore, and iron ingots, even finished steel products
RIGHT NOW, something else is happening in China, and it ain't buying still more copper!
I think you should focus on posting intelligent stuff on this site and not your bullshit theories and rants. Tone it down a little bit man you are just degrading this site. I've been reading Zero Hedge since January and the comments section used to yield a great amount of information from unbiased people. Your complaining seems retarded to say the least and I'd appreciate it if you took your rants elsewhere, pal.
Cvienne - what on EARTH are you doing over here slumming with the nutcases?
Out of plain curiosity what do you think is that,"something else happening in China".
There is no/not nearly enough water in the upper half of the country.
Bingo. Not nearly enough water for agriculture, let alone the massive demand for fresh water in manufacturing. More water suppy being polluted every day. Siberia has to be in the crosshairs.
India has the same problem...
Shit, you just made a good point that the next conflict could be China vs. Russia over Siberian water. Fuck.
Russia cannot defend thier borders from Chinese "settlers", a bloodless invasion:
http://brooksreview.wordpress.com/2009/05/01/leery-bear-rising-dragon-li...
Go do a bit of reading on Pettis and the logical assumptions and alternatives that he has put forward on China.
http://mpettis.com/
He knows his stuff ... last 4 articles make excellent reading.
Whacked, agree whole-heartedly, I trust no one more than Pettis in regards to China and some broader macro ideas. He keeps a very open mind, and publishes any good counter arguments to his theses.
A friend in need is a pain in the ass
hooked on debt mining. They can jump
anytime so economist can use a shovel
to be truly helpfull in this retarded postion
and legacy left to our future. There assholes.
Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Yu Yongding, the Chinese economist whose calls for liberalizing the yuan heralded its 21 percent gain since 2005, said the government should reduce sales aimed at keeping the currency weak so it can someday float freely “Why should we continue to pile up those reserves?” Yu said. Once the U.S. recovers from the deepest global recession since World War II, the dollar will weaken and Treasury prices will fall, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aXji_RIiqjL0
TD,
I find your title amusing and surreal.
In my life time. Unbelievable.
My favorite is P622012 from the side ads.
Schwinge.
Mario Brothers is getting harder day by day. . . .. .
Is it just me or does beer and Pink Floyd mix well with global system failure
That's the rhetorical question my friend.
The "Junk" flagger is out again.
Sorry, don't you mean "Jack" Daniels?
I did.
And I stand corrected.
Thanx.
I understand.
Classic.....ROTFLMAO
This my first "junk" flag! I'm so proud!
sam adams down the hatch!
also: So its econ related -- Marla, officially I am in favor of selling Calofornia to China in order to settle the national debt. We can float Granolaville across the Atlantic. Additionally, to settle our debt with Japan, we can send them Bernanke's facial hair. Surprise!
You didn't deserve it my friend.
Obviously, something was lost in the translation.
The "Junk" didn't come from N.A.
Hey My Cog.; check out the new troll ng2amarine funk; hes been trolling for almost 8 hrs now. TD should REALLY do something about this stuff; its getting pretty out of control.
Morning Cheeky B.
He's really is taking himself a little too seriously, even for a troll.
You may say to yourself -- "Project Mayhem, you are approximately six beers deep. Why on Earth would you suggest selling California to the Chinese? California is a wonderful place."
Well ssir or madame, I will tell you why. This video explains why we MUST sell California to the Chinese -- immediately.
http://failblog.org/2009/08/20/public-speaker-fail/
Santa Cruz, where all the San Francisco 1967-1970 hippy flower ended up living - so whats your point! California envy-hate? Sir you are one of the many many Great Simplifiers of the World - you are PART OF THE PROBLEM in fact, obsolete panderer to those who want to hear what they know they know - they KNOW nothing ! and i see that it is not irony, not tongue in cheek, not ultra-sophisticate metatalk post modern stuff - rather it is simple gutter-sniping, per Churchills comments on Hitlers gang
I was being sarcastic geez does anyone have a sense of humor left.
Project Mayhem; don't mind him, hes been trolling the site from 5 am ( that's London Time )
I point to the theory of relativity as an example of simple brilliance. The next time you gaze at your collection of books that were, I have no doubt, carefully chosen to impress unsuspecting visitors, you may want to pick up a few, blow the dust off, and read the content.
That is really funny. But so true....But scary is the fact that these are the Pelosi People!!!
I have noticed that the MSM has addressed the Narco Fires in Santa Cruz??? Tony: Aww, Alex, we had some problems you know, your man he wouldn't listen to me so I had to cancel his fucking contract.
Money, it's a hit.
Don't give me that goody goody buuu-uull shit.
LSD, the Wizard of Oz on mute, and Dark Side of the Moon is the trifecta my friend.
SEC should hire Tyler Durden
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-sec-cant-keep-up-with-high-tech-tradi...
http://dailyreckoning.com/danger-for-the-dollar/
let's hope, asians don't read their articles ^
Why don't you use reCAPTCHA here for anti-spammer protection. At least it serves a useful purpose while it wastes my time:
http://gizmodo.com/306034/anti+spam-turing-test-is-really-global-human+p...
Australia
Japan
New Zealand
Notes: 8/1/09 yoy reality surface lag
Overall sales were down 38% primarily due to decreased selling volumes of 30%, reflecting lower volumes across all regions North America , Latin America, Asia, Europe/Middle East/Africa and all product lines due to the continued global recession as well as destocking by our customers. We were lucky and adjusted and senior management made tough choices.
I was rather close to initial estimates it was 40% as posted.
My opinion was a 40 percent lagging drop Sun May 24, 2009 6:14 pm<====== then, to overall demand. I do not know now at all
when stabilization will accure.
Just a spoke in the wheel I was wondering what the real numbers where.
Today that report should of been discerned already in the public eye. It is amazing how slow the info wheel does move on information to the planet.
Given how fragile data can be in a context to reality animal spirits comes to mind. As we are today volume is up to segements.
http://www.inquisitr.com/33732/10-year-old-girl-fined-50-for-operating-a-lemonade-stand-without-a-license/
Long live the only free market.
could end up continuing this QE madness and end up owning all the new debt. This game
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
worst case scenerio china takes over the world and we revert to eating noodles with sticks and growing rice patties....lol
OR http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Book_of_Communism
P.S ( fuck you junk flagger asshole ) thats no directed towards you Seth
no no the way it goes, is this "we will be eating sauerkraut with chopsticks" if we lose this war - remember? 1941 December - Patton begins already setting up the desert training center in Southern California, and taps into the Los Angeles aqueduct (from lone pine just behind Mt Witney) before bothering to ask permission - good old Patton - "kill those poor dumb bastards, by the basketful by the bushel, and let THEM die for their country" - how easy, very easy it is to motivate using straight gutter talk
what a troll better ignore him
All you old men without a sense of humor please go back to Seeking Alpha k thx.
I like your comments and I think they speak the truth. Don't mind the bashers, as you do already.
How did the Chinese ever miss the fork? I mean, they don't use big stilts or some shit instead of pitchforks do they?
one remark: this is by destination port ot exports. rotterdam being the largest seaport in europe, receives an outsized amount of europe's imports.
Futures are showing a considerable drop at opening.
But alas, it will be a good time to buy more stocks.
Ever since the day that GM declared bankruptcy and the markets shot up 200 points that very day, I stopped trading on facts, fundamentals or news.
If anything, its better to be a contrarian and go against common sense.
This market was overbought 2 freakin' months ago. It doesn't matter and nobody cares. Trade with it, make money and be happy. Who really gives a shit about anything else. Govt doesn't. The boyz at GS don't. Your next door neighbor makes money this way. Don't miss out. DOW 20,000 here we come.
Yeah, until someone sold USD like a mofo this morning. Fuckers.
I happen to believe that China wants to prop up its stock and property markets to keep its population happy. Sure, it will all end in tears one day, but it could take years or even decades to do so. As a trader I, for one, do not plan on fighting the Chinese government. They have more money than I do.
long parsnips
100 bucks
a ton
Why does the FED stop buying Treasuries for one week (Aug. 13-Aug. 23, 2009) you might ask??? Why, dear sheeple, the answer is, to allow Goldman Sachs to steer the heard into an ever-closer tighter pack for picking off the weak and tired. Get rid of the “Shorts” and you can control the market (on Options Expiration Week, no less). With no one left to short their (F.E.D.) position, they can move the herd any way they want. (Buy low – Remember!)
So go the “Day Traders” (Quaint little group, they really believe their doing something productive) and small hedgy firms still trading the market these days.
Tell me… how much trading has the average 401K toting American done in the last 60 days??? – None – Some – or …not nearly enough to raise the market to the level we see today.
(I’ll go with - “… not nearly”…)
SO, … who is left still trading everyday?? Certainly not the masses as most would hope. Money on the sidelines is still firmly parked on the sidelines (in a steel vault buried in the back yard of most of the people still working). Cash is still the King on Main street. (As the latest consumer spending data clearly points out) Only the hard-core day traders are left at Wall & Hanover, and they certainly cannot raise the market as we have seen in the past few weeks.
No, my dear friends only the Blackrock’s, PIMCO’s and Goldman’s of the world, still have enough dry powder to manipulate the market these past weeks. If you are one of the lowely options traders relying upon your “Vectorvest” screens, you have already lost. And now you know it. (Your now trading commodities futures in a vain attempt to recoup your Leman gap, Good Luck!). You just can’t figure out why you lost out on the biggest bull surge in modern history, can you? You still think it’s market driven, …poor fools, - Not.
Today, the sheeple are being driven to the great cliff once more. Look out below. Your 401K’s are in the crosshairs, and then your day trading nest egg is next. Get out of the market sheeple, and into cash, September 09 cometh.
Green shoots a la CNBC:
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/COHR/tab/5
Yup, it beat the heck out of these analysts alright.
Hey everybody, come on over and burn off some of that frustration blowing away zombie bankers:
http://www.econocataclysm.com/day-traders-of-the-dead-video-game/
Watch out for the Mega-CEO's, they take lots of hits to kill but they drop lots of stuff too. If you can get a rocket launcher then keep it, it's good for crowd control at the zombie banks when they really start swarming you. Enjoy!
China's electricity usage is down and now we find out its petroleum usage is down.
Odd for an economy growing at 8.5%.
Perhaps China really is a miracle economy!
They're raising capital standards for banks soon so then we'll get to see them continue to grow at 8% in the face of an enormous credit squeeze (because their banks are even more addicted to ponzi growth for survival than ours)
The only figures you can believe are the ones they can't fake
this market is bonkers
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
Don't panic everyone.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/21/news/companies/bernanke/index.htm?sectio...
Bernanke: Economy could grow soon