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GM Parks 510,000 Cars With Dealers, 31% Higher Than Year Earlier

Tyler Durden's picture





 

One more month, one more chance for GM to stuff its dealers with cars. Sure enough, in the just release January sales PR, the company announced that "General Motors dealers in the United States reported 178,896 total sales in January, a 23-percent increase from a year ago for the company’s four brands. The gain was driven by solid retail sales which were 36 percent higher than a strong January a year ago." And behind the scenes, GM has continued to shove a whopping 510,000 cars with dealers: In January 2011, the firm had 510k cars at its dealers, compared to just 390,000 in January 2010, a 30% increase. Furthermore, as the only component of consumer credit that is surging, non-revolving loans, indicates that virtually all car purchases are made based on the old formula of "no money down." And with the government backstopping both the car maker and the lender banks, we would be very interested in discovering just how bad the delinquency rate in non-revolving car debt is over the past year, especially as it relates to GM.

 


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Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:10 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Sub-prime car loans. Perfekt.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"GM Parks 510,000 Cars With Dealers"

 

Full Soviet retard

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 15:03 | Link to Comment attst487
attst487's picture

Just announced: Obama's Universal Transportation Plan, all US citizens are required to buy a GM car whether they want one or not. Everyone who already owns a GM will be required to foot the bill for those who can't afford a new GM.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 07:48 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the Trabbant is only 2 model cycles away

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:16 | Link to Comment HamyWanger
HamyWanger's picture

+21.8% of sales yoy is incredible news, and proves that the global economic recovery is a reality.

America will come out of this crisis richer and stronger than ever.

The permadoomers are once again proven wrong.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:33 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Hamy on wry.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:04 | Link to Comment Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"Hamy on wry."

often overlooked.  lol.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:55 | Link to Comment OpenEyes
OpenEyes's picture

I'm pretty sure that Helicopter Ben is going to drop thousands of "Dow 12,000" hats on those crowds in Cairo today too!

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

And the factors that led to the crisis?  All fixed to your satisfaction,Harry?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:58 | Link to Comment TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

Hamy and Harry are twin trolls.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:59 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

Furthermore, how does one get a "global" economic recovery from this story?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 16:56 | Link to Comment Cleve Meater
Cleve Meater's picture

Sorry Hamy... Look at the numbers.  It's easy to have higher sales when you're losing money on each vehicle.  Government Motors is losing money on the Volt (it costs $41K to produce and sells for $40K).  Next, look at the incentives they're offering -- off the charts higher than all of the other manufacturers.  All these guys are doing is buying market share.  But don't take my word for it... Here's the actual incentive numbers from Edmunds:

                  Jan. '11    Dec. '10    Jan. '10    Jan to Jan    Dec to Jan
Chrysler      3386        3522        3017        12.23%        -3.86%
Ford            2859        3304        3073        -6.96%        -13.47%
GM              3762        3255        2910       29.28%        15.58%
Honda         1587         1561        1216       30.51%         1.67%
Nissan         2231         2229        2419       -7.77%         0.09%
Toyota         2012         2055        1454       38.38%        -2.09%

Look at them Dec. '10 to Jan. '11 numbers... Why, it looks like every other manufacturer is cutting incentives or staying even.  GM's incentives are up over 15% from December leading to this comment from Edmunds:

General Motors’ incentive spend in January certainly raises some eyebrows,” said Caldwell. “GM spent more on incentives in January than any of their Big 6 rivals, even as they sold more 2011 model year vehicles. This suggests that their new model year vehicles are more heavily discounted than one might expect."

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:12 | Link to Comment Kristian
Kristian's picture

Business as usual, everything on credit.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:12 | Link to Comment Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Volatility in Silver!

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:13 | Link to Comment economists_do_i...
economists_do_it_with_models's picture

Over/under on HamyWanger getting junked 7 1/2.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Like my old company, United Technologies, GM is a military supplier pretending to be a consumer company.

They are government motors for a reason.

All this stuffing drama will be cheered with higher stock prices for GM.

Give me Moretors.

ORI

 

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/06/16/time-faster-now/

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:14 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Sad to see the largest company in history blow itself up like it did. 

But, they were unable or unwilling to adapt. 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:16 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

This is good news if your looking for a new UAW built crap box.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:34 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Took a ride in someones new GM truck the other day, it is crap Id never buy it.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:07 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Say what you want about General Motors, but that leaves more for the people that don't have the false preconceptions about Detroit's inability to produce with quality. 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:10 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

They now have 510,000 more cars to buy

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:18 | Link to Comment bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

It's all GM has left, one last big inventory shell game to lure customers and investors into thinking TBTF works.

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:21 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Perspective: They put more cars on the lot because demand is clearly back for autos. Last year, inventories were much leaner since the economy was still stalled and, rightly so, the automakers kept inventories low.

Now we're seeing strong demand and of course that leads to more inventory. Economics 101, kids.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:32 | Link to Comment Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

That is perfectly accurate, Harry.

 

If GM sales are up 23% YoY, and their inventory is up 30% YoY.....  why is this correlation a big deal that warrants a headline?  

This seems perfectly reasonable in an environment of growing sales and as Spring approaches, which is typically a stronger sales season.  

There is absolutely nothing abnormal about this data in the slightest.  

....the only component of consumer credit that is surging, non-revolving loans, indicates that virtually all car purchases are made based on the old formula of "no money down."

That makes zero sense. 

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:01 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

If you happen to scratch throught the surface by even a millimeter you'll find Harry's "analysis" is completely void and empty of honesty and truth. 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:09 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Yes, completely wrong...oh wait, Ford also had great sales just come through. So did Kia. I guess they spun those numbers too right guys? 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 16:09 | Link to Comment tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

I've seen cooking of books at the dealership level at both a toyota dealer and a gm dealer oowned by a large corp

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:16 | Link to Comment Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

Well, if you're referring to the broad theme of his posts across all threads, I can't answer to that because I don't follow him from thread to thread.  

But his comments about sales/inventories at GM are absolutely accurate. The correlation between growing sales and growing inventories is completely reasonable, and I hardly understand why that even needs to be stated. Despite all the efforts by ZH readers to find conspiracy or cynicism in everything, it's just not there in these numbers.  At all.  

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 15:03 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Or they just over-produced in response to anticipated demand which did not show up.

You cannot have a recovery with falling employment. Less people on payroll than a year ago. Where the hell is the recovery? Anyone who thinks those car sales are booming is an idiot. Stats can be manipulated, this is done all the time to improve the qtr, boost the stock, claim a recovery. The real issue is why HALF-A-MILLION cars are sitting unsold. But nothing will convince some people, who think all is rosy.

All is shit and it's getting worse, not better.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 16:09 | Link to Comment tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

I like you, you are a free thinker

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 18:46 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Come on Mark. His comments are NOT accurate. That's my point. You didn't scratch through the surface either by the looks of it.

Numbers? GM is dead man walking. It's a fucking zombie of a company. It should have been plowed under.

Is that clear enough without any kind of conspiracy talk?

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 08:06 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

so the sub-prime zero money down GM car-finance model is fab, fab, fab... Harry can't see a problem here, like sub-prime property never happened... way to go Harry

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:31 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Not according to my brother in law at one of the biggest GM dealerships west of St Louis, he tells me sales are crap.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:38 | Link to Comment TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

Harry is a troll.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The answer is simple. Your brother-in-law is working at the only under performing GM dealership in the world.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:10 | Link to Comment Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

My thoughts exactly.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:43 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Probably true CD.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 15:05 | Link to Comment whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

wealth effect: stock market higher, health care costs higher, unemployment higher, food/energy prices higher, taxes higher, poverty higher, bonuses higher, foreclosures higher, homelessness higher, crime rate higher, bankruptcies higher, unsold cars higher... it's economics 101.

praise be the bernank! may he ease a thousand years!

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 16:11 | Link to Comment tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

real wages!? oh bummerz

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:36 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

zero down, no job, 490 fico is their typical customer.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:03 | Link to Comment Votewithabullet
Votewithabullet's picture

A high volume Dayton dealer actually says you're golden if your score is over 390. He fucking says it. I didnt think the scores even went that low.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 16:33 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

They have to service the University kids coming in from Chicago(that couldn't get in at Notre Dame) somehow. That is, the same people who end up with parents buying them a $150k home in a suburb(and community) that doesn't want either of them.  

Privledged kids have to get their parent's Corvette, Jeep, or Ford from somewhere.  That is, unless you're one of the Reineke folks that rotate between $50-70k Ford trucks at their ATRD LLC home.

 

 

 

 

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:37 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

you've got it backwards, the automarkers shove cars out on the lot, if they don't sell Obama buys them, and what he doesn't buy Uncle Ben takes on his balance sheet. Socialism 101

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:33 | Link to Comment Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

you got POMO and now you got POCO, permanent open car operations

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Sorry Harry, it's not econ 101, it's gambling 101 on the hope that the populace is buying all the BS "data" about a recovery and will finally start to load up on credit again so they can get themselves a nice new Caddy.

As I write, I see the offer from Scranton Caddy for a new CTS at 1.9% APR.  Great! Love to get my hands on a 15/25 mpg vehicle as gas approaches $4 a gallon.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:17 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

And you want the people to all be in golf carts, a la Europe and Asia?

No thank you.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:45 | Link to Comment Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Did I say that fuckstick?

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 17:54 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

You implied that by suggesting that 15/25 is "not enough". 

 

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 02:39 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Some of the new cars fit neatly inside my pickup truck bed behind the cab.

 

I would be more than happy to give some a lift after they exhaust what little batteries they carry with them.

 

We don't intend on buying a vehicle for at least 5 years.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:02 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

Market forces aren't at play here Harry.  You know that.  This isn't Econ 101 at all.  It's Economics 2.01b (Beta release) ...and it's vapor ware.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 15:58 | Link to Comment ThreeTrees
ThreeTrees's picture

What about Business 101?  I find it hard to believe GM's production forcasting model is THAT biased so as to have overproduced by +30% amidst a supposed consumer revival..

I bet vehicles parked in inventory = Cash burn.  The recover isn't "in".  They're still just hoping it's on the way.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:21 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Spring fire sale coming right up. Zero down, zero percent interest for 80 months....hell, make it 100 months !!

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:30 | Link to Comment IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

You forgot zero payment for 24 months...

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:47 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I see you in a Caddy today financed with a 10 year car loan. Don't worry, you will trade it in before the balloon payment hits.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 22:08 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Auction houses are filled with junker Caddies. When those over priced cream puffs start messaging the driver to fix very expensive parts on a social security income, they simply trade em in.

The only caddy worth a damn were the recent CTS's if memory serves big V8 and a hell of a lot of get up and go. 150 mph was not a strain. But I suspect a granny fuel cut off somewhere close past that point on the tach and speed. Top end was dropping off a little past 150.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 03:50 | Link to Comment andrewjpeterson
andrewjpeterson's picture

The range in which this company produces and manufactures its products is the most commendable thing, as the variety of models supported makes it easily approachable by many lower-middle and middle class population.Used Cars

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:22 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Does gm have more sales in asia.now than in the usa?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:32 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Theres too many cars in china on the roads. People have to be in a lottery to get a license before purchasing.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:23 | Link to Comment ranrun
ranrun's picture

This means GM's next stop is 50?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

virtually all car purchases are made based on the old formula of "no money down."

How the hell else are people making $9/hour supposed to be able to "buy" a $40,000 Chevy Volt?

Implicitly guaranteed by Uncle Sugar, these are not really "car loans". This is a back door ENTITLEMENT program.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:28 | Link to Comment IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

Also called as Deferred Default Programs...

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:38 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

+1

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:31 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

In Houston, it seems like people are either driving a brand new $60,000 car, or a piece of shit with body damage and a cracked windshield. 

Here is what they are offering in our zip:

2011 Chevrolet Suburban Three Quarter Ton

$2,000 Cash Allowance
OR
2.9% for up to 60 months for qualified buyers

Tax, title, license, dealer fees and optional equipment extra. Take new retail delivery by 02/28/2011. For 2.9% APR, monthly payment for every $1,000 you finance is $29.04 for 36 months; $22.09 for 48 months; $17.92 for 60 months. Example down payment is 12%. Length of contract limited. Residency restrictions apply. Not available with some other offers. See dealer for details.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment jbc77
jbc77's picture

Somebody pinch me. Non-existent underwriting standards for car loans. I notcied a week ago, in my local paper, GM dealerships in the Hartford, CT area - "just bring two pay stubs and your approved" ads popping up everywhere.

So it looks like you just need to prove two weeks worth of income and your in.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:32 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Do unemployment checks and food stamps count as pay stubs? Im sure they do.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Upswaller
Upswaller's picture

In Atlanta, I haven't seen a new-car tag in months.  No new sales.  Used car prices are increasing.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:26 | Link to Comment umop episdn
umop episdn's picture

No money down? I suppose that the next trick is 'downpayment assistance plans' and perhaps some loans for 110% the value of the car.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

Thats what was being pulled in the last years of credit snorting circa 2006.  Independent dealers will financing used SUVs and other hoopties with the big ass rims already on 'em adding 5 or 6K to the blue book price.

Its a shady practice but if you are the kind of person that spends 6K on rims on a used car and you have to finance it, I have no sympathy.  Let the banks own your ass.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 16:14 | Link to Comment tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

the used car manager at a dealer "power books them" if he gets to desk (work) a used car deal

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:27 | Link to Comment assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

I live in central Florida.  There are many car dealerships that are stuffed with inventory, however, buyers aren't visible anywhere.  Very few new cars on the road around here...it is more common to see a house sell than seeing a brand spankin' new car on the road.  The dealerships must be getting huge incentives from their corporate masters in order to be able to afford to maintain those inventory levels. 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:39 | Link to Comment Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

buyers aren't visible anywhere....

??

Are you standing on the sidewalk with a video camera 24/7?  What sort of nonsensical, meaningless observation is that? I rarely see people fucking or live births, but the population certainly is growing. 

Just look at the sales figures for all automakers.  They're up everywhere.  

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:00 | Link to Comment assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

What does fuckin and live births have to do with my observations about new cars on the road?  I happen to observe many different things as they may relate to the economy.  New cars on the road happens to be one of them and I have been doing it for years.  During the boom times (2003-2008) people were buying cars like crazy and it was common to see new cars on the road and to pass by a dealership and see people walking the lots looking at dealer inventory.  I can't tell you how rare it is to catch sight of any customers when driving past dealerships today.  You would be right to criticize my lack of including objective data.  I trust what I can observe with my own eyes.  Maybe you should try it some time and refrain from being such an ass.

P.S. - Why don't you check your objective data and see if you can find out how many of those 'sales' are fleet sales and leases vs. private/organic?  Thanks in advance!

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

Well then you should contact all the major media outlets and tell them - based on your years of people watching - all the automakers are falsifying their data today.  

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:30 | Link to Comment assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

My observation is based on what is happening here in central Florida...perhaps you failed to read that the first time.  I can verify that the dealers in this area are overflowing with inventory that is NOT moving.  This does not mean that cars aren't selling well in Chicago, El Paso, or Portland.  Who knows?  It does seem a little odd that's all...cars are being shoved out to dealers in MY AREA who are having trouble selling them.  

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:00 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"ust look at the sales figures for all automakers.  They're up..."

On what terms Mark?

I didn't junk you btw Mark....

i..i..i, i can't.....

you bring "HER"

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:42 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harry just asserts that sales are up, but theyre not. GM sales down 20% still.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:19 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

It's amazing that some posters here can stare at strong data on a daily basis now and still can't see that the economy is obviously improving. How can anyone possibly argue the sales numbers coming in from automakers today?? They're all pretty great so far. How can you argue the strongest ISM number in years??

It's mind boggling to say the least!

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:41 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Strong stuffin the channel data at best, and SALES are down 20% at GM Harry. No wonder youre a urinal cake sales rep.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 16:17 | Link to Comment tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

think john candy in planes trains and automobiles... though i think he was a curtain ring guy lol

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:47 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

You mean the fact that 1 out of every 7 Americans are on ewelfare or that the Fed is buying trillions worth of debt?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

or that the globe is busting rivets or a 6 month CD is paying out .005% ?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:29 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Here comes the deflation/ credit contraction monster again. I see him peeking through the window. Boogah! Boogah!

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:30 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Sure why not. Get a new car, make one payment, then keep it until they repo it. Which they won't for a long time as they will be awash in cars for years as GM has to move what they cannot sell.

GM wants to pretend to be alive again, no problem, their customers can play along and pretend to care. The Fed will give away money to back the bad loans. It's the new business as usual.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:38 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

The new normal, the American dream reinvisioned, a tofurkey in every microwave and a government motors car in every carport.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:02 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

End of empire. Take what you can get, I guess. We're all pirates now.

The powers in the towers will laugh at history. They won.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:34 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Here in California, car sales are booming.

Most popular new cars I've seen on the road with brand new dealer plates:

- Toyota Prius

- Ford F-series pickups.

No doubt, the stock market seems to be pricing in a consumer spending boom of epic proportions.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:39 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL! Wow thats the dumbest post ever.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:51 | Link to Comment aheady
aheady's picture

lol

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:40 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

In nominal terms, that is absolutely correct.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

The stock market isn't "pricing in" anything because the entire notion of price discovery is a long-dead maggot-riddled carcass.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:22 | Link to Comment DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

Beverly Hills?  Silicon Valley?

Cal's a very very big state.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:34 | Link to Comment One_Eyed_Pony
One_Eyed_Pony's picture

Look at the bright side of this data: US tax receipts will go up due to the taxing on the increased inventory! GM doesn't even take a hit on the #'s because they'll just skim the interest off the Billions in the US taxpayer's funded Welfare Bailout Bag's escrow account. Never forget the "ACCOUNTING TRIX ARE FOR KIDS" revenue recognition crap.

WIN-WIN-WIN:GM-US GOV-FISCAL PROPAGANDA

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:35 | Link to Comment ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

 

Are the car "loans" being packaged, etc., etc.?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:45 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Not sure, but I believe they are guaranteed by the US taxpayer.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:18 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Yes. I used to buy used car dealer paper and it was quite lucrative. The buyer had to be at least 40% into the vehicle with his own cash, also must have a steady job, current stable address, reasonable FICO ( even if under the credit union standard ), keep insurance current, etc. Term never went out beyond 10 months and the title was liened just as a bank would do. Interest rate was obscene.

The contract repo responsibility is key. A default putsback to the selling dealer who handles the repo and pays off the contract holder. The dealer then resells the car or auctions it. I stay completely detached from the repo process. And dropped insurance is a default event. If you are risk selective, the repo rate is actually quite low.

Yesterday I was contacted for one deal that needed a 15 month term, which I will not do. For the past 2 years, I've been lucky to be submitted a deal every 3 months but they were all too edgy for my taste. Pre-08 I'd look at one every 3 weeks.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

P/E 10 now at 23.8.  46% above historical average. 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:39 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

It's absurd of course, but who wants to tempt the belligerence of TPTB/PPT with a short?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:48 | Link to Comment Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

True, but in 140 years, there's always been a correction when the P/E 10 was above 20.  In the 90s, it went up to 44 before it corrected, so it's not a market timing thing.  But there will be a correction at some point, and it will be harsh....

Unless "this time is truly different."

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

But the S&P guy was on CNBC this morning saying the S&P P/E for 2011 will be less than 14, cheap by any measure.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

with a glut of overcapacity in everything, including credit why should this surprise anyone. problem is they know it isn't working why do they keep doing it? watching a TV ad last night, new furnace, $15 a month. $15 month? that's less than you pay for the energy that goes through that furnace. This is the way of all manufacturing, you have to give the product away, ($1000 of car financing at $30 month?) Come on its going to cost me that much just to drive the car. Additionally all this crap about 40K electric cars fries my ass. have you ever seen those coal fired power plants in Wyoming? they still pollute.

now Europe and Asia are going to Nat Gas cars which makes a lot more sense. Buy UNG BITCHEZ!

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

with a glut of overcapacity in everything....

What?  Inventories at retail shops were largely down and insufficient for demand throughout most of the holidays.

And with regard to GM, if sales and inventories are a few percentage points apart how is that a "glut of overcapacity"?  It seems perfectly reasonable that inventories would begin to increase as dealerships emerge from the traditionally slower winter season. 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:56 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

lets start with housing, from there it all rolls downhill. when i go the electronics store i see more crap than you could imagine in a lifetime. Read Jaguar Inflation

http://mises.org/daily/3329/

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:42 | Link to Comment Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

Yep.  I'll give you housing overcapacity.

Nothing else, though. 

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:46 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

have you heard of the iphone?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:52 | Link to Comment Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

No overcapacity there, at all.

People stand in lines overnight to pay huge premiums for it.

I'm confused why you would mention it.

?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:38 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

People stand in line because they want to be the first to get it, not because there is a shortage. Go order 20 iphones right now and I bet you won't have a problem getting them

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:42 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

People stand in line because they want to be the first to get it, not because there is a shortage. Go order 20 iphones right now and I bet you won't have a problem getting them

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:43 | Link to Comment TorchFire
TorchFire's picture

It is simply amazing to contemplate the brazen manipulative actions of the US government with regard to an entity they are KNOWN to control. Of course they are more circumspect with their multiple other, and less obvious intrusions lest more sheep awaken. It seems the population at large are so fully owned that they are unwitting enablers of this "planned economy" madness.  Soon they will find that the food bowl (MSM) that has allowed them to become so docile is devoid of any nutrition.  By that point in time, most will be weakened and will have forever lost any hunting instincts.  They will starve as Master stays warm and fat. 

As we all dine on ZH filet I would say "stay wild my friends!"

http://www.vigorousnorth.com/2008/12/fabulous-ruins-of-detroit.html

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:44 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Dumb post?

I'll tell what was dumb.  I nearly went short on Friday, but I waited to see if there was follow through on the downside.

There was none.

So I'm still long, and the NYA just broke out to fresh, new, 2-year highs.

Impatient bears are the ones looking dumb.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:10 | Link to Comment spartan117
spartan117's picture

Print da monay!

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

"Still long" as in 85% cash as you stated previously...you are a riot.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:38 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Still long' in what Robo? Hell a week ago you said youre nearly all in cash. Youre just chock full o bullshit and like to hear yourself talk, thats all.

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 08:17 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

I'm one of those "impatient bears"... been short the S&P for 3-4 weeks... but while i'm itchy i'm not worried as stocks are gasping for air to the upside (ie. my risk is minimal) while the drop when it comes will be short, sharp and steep as a black ski-run (happy days:)

So keep believing the Fed can keep blowing bubbles with counterfeit money, I'll bet against these King Canutes and very happy to profit from their folly 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

When the JP Morgue doesn't deliver Silver in March, those cars will rust on the lots, and then Go long on Repo bizness fellow speculators 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:46 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

BTW: Our YOY revenue was 123% higher than 2010. That's by far our best January. So for everyone who thinks consumer spending "died" after Christmas, think again. 

When you own a consumer discretionary business, it's pretty easy to get a first hand glimpse into the economy as far as spending is concerned. I see that. I've reported it here since early fall and yet no one wants to believe. Amazing!

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Your business must have been pretty shitty to have that type of revenue bounce.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Harry, you can "report" all you want. Without independent proof all you're doing is blowing in the wind.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:54 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

its as easy as 1 - 2 - 3

 

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

 "Our YOY revenue was 123% higher than 2010. That's by far our best January"

Harry Harry Harry.....

"on the internet EVERYONE is a 12 year old girl..."

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Harry,

 

     Are you the same Harry Wanger that said the SPX would never see 1160 again during the big correction last summer after it dropped below 1100?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:24 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

That's the old Harry. This is the new and improved Harry. He lost his way but now he has seen the path to salvation.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:17 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

What kind of consumer discretionary?

Are we talking toilet paper and underwear or trinkets and glittery non-necessities?

The concerted effort to convince everyone that we are "back to normal" may have succeeded so much that they are using credit cards and buying a GM with no money down on credit thinking that "this time it's different" and next year their income will be up 10%. 

Ooops.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:39 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harrys urinal cakes to da moon!

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

HW: Nah, It is not Amazing it is Amateurish. Just look at the Enron circa late 90... now that was.. "Amazing."

They must be using the lower teer consultants, former Enron stars are working their magic at TBTF.

 

p.s. HW, you out to post more, me likez the sounds of cow bell, early in the morning. 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:47 | Link to Comment savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

1st no money down for houses, now no money down for cars, once it moves to no money down for food you're in trouble

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 12:51 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

its no money down for money and zero apr. can you hear the helicopters?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:32 | Link to Comment savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

oh hell yeah, i guess you're fucked

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:12 | Link to Comment spartan117
spartan117's picture

No money down for food?  Aren't they called food stamps?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

43 million Americans now on food stamps.  SNAP!

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 08:22 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

when we get to Petrol Stamps too you have a 100% Govt run car market... nothing like 'Govt stimulation' to pump and keep alive the zombie economy, sorry 'free market'

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:21 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

Comrades, you will take delivery of what we send you.  If you do not take delivery of what we send you, dear Comrade brothers, we will take away your dealership.

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:14 | Link to Comment ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

GM sales down 20% from December 2010. 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:17 | Link to Comment Ploutos
Ploutos's picture

To keep things in perspective, GM had 908,000 cars in dealers inventory at year end 2007 and 872,000 in 08.  Many dealers are still short on popular models  and missing sales because of it.  A 90 days supply of new cars is just about right for the industry. 

A huge problem is the fickle consumer.  When gas peaked in 08, you could not give away Suburbans, Tahoes, Escalades , Pickups, etc, and small cars and Hybrids were bringing list price.  One year later ,  the small cars are sitting and demand has driven the prices of the used sport utilities through the roof. 

 

Additionally, the CAFE  fleet gas standards keep the manufactures from peak efficiencies in sales.  A Escalade that sells for $72,000 does not cost all that much more to produce than a Malibu that sells for $24,000.  The sweet spot for profit vs volume on that Escalade might be more like $50, 000 but that would cause too many to be sold and there goes the fleet mileage , they miss CAFE and all the bad things happen.  The manufacturers  prices the trucks and sport utilities higher than they should to force sales into high mileage cars that the people do not want.  You want to make the system work better.  Get rid of CAFE and let the consumer  make his choice with market price on vehicles and gas.

 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:28 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Choice?  Individual choice?  Free Market Capitalism?

Comrade, clearly you do not understand the will of the people and of the Politburo.

Only the central committee and central planners know what is best.

Comrade, we cannot trust the choices of the individual.

If you join us you will be able to afford the "Escalade" and you may then throw potatoes and the Communist Manifesto out the windows to the Cavalier and Cobalt drivers.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:37 | Link to Comment Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

Stop mocking me. :)

Economic freedoms are individual freedoms. One can not last without the other one, period.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 16:02 | Link to Comment One_Eyed_Pony
One_Eyed_Pony's picture

How many vehicles has the Polutburo and it's WARSAW PACT states purchase in the past 12 months? The Imperial Empire will engorge itself on every crumb within it's grasp, all for that last once of propaganda headlines... "WTF...Everything is Fine, Just Keep Shopping"

PONZI ON GARTH!

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:17 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

two things to concern us. when will the Bernank throw a lasso around commodity speculators, with an ittsy bitsy rate hike? (frankly a quarter pounder with plenty of jawbone might do the stock market a lot of good, with rates historically low)

 

and if he has to raise rates what happens to all these zero APR deals. several years ago a major brokerage predicted that investors would be borrowing money to buy Treasuries on the spread. can he really pull that one off?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 13:34 | Link to Comment Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

Revenues are up. Off books deals and other accounting gimmicks are up.

Keeping up appearances priceless.

For everything else, there is a legion of dirt cheap former Enron's accountants and unconditional FASB support. 

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:46 | Link to Comment assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

True.  We really can't trust a lot of the data that comes out of the accounting meat grinders.  I love hot dogs but I know enough NOT to ask what they are made of.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:13 | Link to Comment ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Are these "liar loans?'

Or do car buyers actually have to have a job or a credit score or something equally silly?

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:20 | Link to Comment Slim
Slim's picture

From what I can see, used cars are commanding a premium (lots of marginal/bad credit buyers that need a vehicle) and dealers are going wild with trade ins as well as financing/leasing options to push new car inventory through.  I haven't seen lease deals look this good in a long time.  I saw a near 100K Benz coup offered for a 24 month lease at high $600s and not much higher than basic E class.

 

It's not as if sales are non-existant.  If you have money and solid credit, you are in a good position to strike bargains and the new car market is catering to you.  For myself, I've been tempted to pick something up but at the end of the day my current car is paid for, runs great, and I don't drive much with short commute and my wife's car for family stuff.  I may revisit but it's tough to beat a costless option with no driver other than good deal and vanity gratification.  I don't mind treating myself to a bit of consumerism from time to time but high ticket items like cars/houses need to be well thought out.  Too many people agonize over the Starbucks $3 coffee or saving $100 on a flat screen, then go and blow themselves out on a $50K-$1m purchase.  Bad prioritization scheme.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 14:41 | Link to Comment tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

What were the top sellers? Chevy 1500 and 2500 series pickups, Cadillac Escalade, GMC Sierra, Suburban xl, Tahoe, GMC Yukon, GMC Denali... Glad they got at least some of those of the lots before gas prices hit $5.00 a gallon. Just think how much those vehicles will drop in the next 6 months? Now you're not only underwater in your home but you're upside down in your Denali. People will have a tough decision to make, do I squat in my home or my Escalade? Adds a whole new meaning to jingle mail when all these people won't be able to afford to put gas in their new prizes never mind make the 0% payments. All I got to say is eventually when all this free money mirage falls apart, GM will be in a whole lot of hurt again and their accounting tricks and deadbeat deals will come back to sink them all over again. Or should I say, come back to sink us all over again seeing how the US taxpayers are on the hook for the losses.

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 16:20 | Link to Comment tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

F and I guys will make dollars holding rate on subprime  peeps till gov backed credit of car industry collapses

Tue, 02/01/2011 - 16:48 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

GM stock down late in the day. What gives? Is good news bad for equities?

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 08:34 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

I find it amazing that boobusamericanus continues to go in hock for a depreciating asset like a new vehicle; why not buy a good used one for cash or a large down-payment and a 1 year note? Could it be the 'boobus' is emulating the 'Americanus'? If this is what the consumerist doctrine of the USSA is about, then when this gargantuan credit super cycle reveals it ugly deflationary teeth again in a stagflationary environment of $5 a gallon gas and 20% more expensive basic necessities, the 'Truth' of crony 'American capitalism' will be exposed for what it truly is---a ponzi scheme of epic proportions that the average American has no clue of since he spends all of his 'free' time texting on facebook and watching 'Jersey Shore' and 'Monday Night Football'......get a life and understand the world you live in before you devote your life to the slave master banksters and corporate criminals....

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 08:41 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

duplicate/

Wed, 02/02/2011 - 22:13 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

We buy a car cash only these days. The dealers have trouble because they are programmed to sell 5000 dollar warrantry against scary failures and repairs. We reject them. They keep hounding us, we keep saying... 10K cash right here on the barrel, hand us the key and let us leave with the boughten and paid for car.

Repairs we worry about later, it's all part of ownership.

 

The smell of cash only customers soaks into the entire building and they wait upon us hand and foot. It's gratifying to see 5 50 something salespeople desperately tending to our every little whim.

What is the old saying? Oh yes. When the Bank has a large balance in your favor they smile at you. When you owe money to bank, you smile at them.

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