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GMI Describes "The Future Recession In An Ongoing Depression" In This Must Read Report
Raoul Pal, who retired from managing money at the ripe age of 36, after co-managing GLG's Global Macro Fund, and the hedge fund sales business in equities and equity derivatives at Goldman among others, and has been publishing the attached Global Macro Report since, has just come out with the most condensed version of truth about our economic reality we have read in a long time. The attached report provides the most in depth observation on the "future recession in an ongoing depression" which is arguably the best way the describe the current economic predicament. Raoul goes all out in describing he worst recovery in history, touches on he complete disconnect between the bond world and the imaginary equity surreality, provides countless evidence the economy has not only not left the recession but is getting progressively deeper into it, shares several trade recommendations, and on occasion swear like a drunken sailor. A must read report for everyone who is sick of the CNBC/sellside daily onesided propaganda.
h/t Mike
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Ah, yes, the Ranch. Been a million years since I've been there...you're making me feel old, bobm!
good call, babe.
Must be the top 10% earners working for banksters, goverment, and defense dept., along with defaulters.
I don't know many people heading to Vegas to spend it up the way they used to.
Played golf on a Friday morning last week. 2008 course would have been filled. There were maybe 30 people on the entire course on a beautiful summer day. Random anecdote.
Location?
Here in QC courses (low-end $50/18holes and members-only clubs) are packed. Then again the french will go in debt and sell their children before calling it 'quits' so this should probably be disregarded..
i was MADE to play golf in Loss Wages in the 80's by some dumb ass shit giannini.
i absolutely hate Las Vegas and everything it stands for.
though he always found me a pool with a jacuzzi, mind you.
The current survivors are the boys from Xe who are inter-necine scrambling for the pallets of millions that would otherwise be going to Karzai & Bro. so he could pay off the Tabeban. Got it ? Now blowing "it" in Vegas doesn't seem like such a stretch.
I live in a rich, upper middle class area in Southern California. The kids in their low / mid 20's visit Vegas every other weekend, literally.
and those are the real boobs-
All of these people living it up obviously either work for TBTF banks and are spending bonus money made possible by bailout funds, or they've defaulted on their mortgages and are living it up as long as they can on what used to be their payments.
Maybe I'm just too damn old or been out of the USA for too long, but that untucked shirt thing, along with backwards baseball caps, should be outlawed for anyone over the age of 16. And given that the phoofed hair and fashion is nearly identical save for a little variety in color, I'd say what we have here is the Uniform of the Sheeple. Damn, Madison Avenue is effective!
Just adding that many people with permits to carry firearms/weapons concealed or some branch of law enforcement in plain clothes opt for the untucked shirt look as it obscures the waist. Those would be distinctly different from Sheeple although the idea is to conveniently blend in.
Good heads up. I forgot about that tell. Sloppy...
No guns allowed in casinos. Strictly a fashion whore.
Concealed carry with a permit is allowed in Casinos in Nevada as per state law, though I'm sure if you print or flash, security would ask you to leave.
Double Post
I carry every day, in waistband, with shirt tucked in. Even in jeans -- no problem.
The right hardware is the key. Ruger .380, 6 in mag, 1 in pipe. Always ready.
Covert carrier is a great addition to my carry.
http://www.covertcarrier.com/id12.html
phoofed hair
still L O V E
ya babe.
As an expatriate living in Paris, France, I couldn't agree with you more.
As an expatriate living in Paris, France, I couldn't agree with you more.
Instead of "soup lines" or "bank run lines"....
We have lines waiting to get into the most fashionable clubs in Vegas...
During the Great Depression this was the class of people commonly known as "swells."
Lotta people saving tons by not payin the underwater mortgage. In fact, probably half the people in that tri-state area are underwater.
Also, there are still people with a LOT of money. I was outta work for 7 months in 09 but since getting back in, I am earning again and makin hay while the sun shines. I've cut back on expenditures quite a bit, and devote more to savings, which is easier when your income goes up and expenses go down.
But you can get a lot of high-end jewelry off of Craigslist if you are patient and set lowball offers. People are divesting themselves of a lot of saleable things these days. And if you still have credit, the sky's the limit on the oblivion you can spend yourself into.
F U trav
your a son of a bitch i am almost sure of this.
well... you know what they say. the average american's range of thought is between his zipper and mouth.
p.s. it almost looks like they're standing in line to go to hell.
+666
...I just want to know whose credit card they're using...watch out, it could be yours, brah!
All guys with hairdos. Must be a fun club.
Yeah, right.
A gay club? What were you and Leo doing there?
+!!! Robo
Classic!
The charts of the ISM anticipatory confluence of a downtrend with the S&P is convincing as is the ECRI and the GDP.
Interesting no real comments or position on gold.
Vegas is toast cuz the rich asian whale isn't coming anymore...He's going to Macau or Singapore.
You're right cheap buffets and $5. blackjack tables don't pay the bills. Excess capacity will insure a deadly game of musical chairs for the big casinos over the next couple of years.
Some of those charts look more like the seismograph before the big one, or a heart monitor before an attack. They could go either way, as we are in uncharted territory here. I remember in one of the Market Wizards interviews, one of the guys was on the floor in '87 who was watching the implied volatility for both calls and puts on the S and P, commented on the fact that the call prices were up with the market down 500(25%). That's anything can happen land, that's the black swan, that's where we are rapidly heading...
All the ALGOS, BOTS, HFTs, QEs, FEDS, GSs ,Cs, BACs, BULLS, PPTs, SS, FBIs, CIAs, ETC... will not be able to prop the market up against the reality of the shitty economy for much longer. The truth cometh with a vengence.
Had that happen to me in 2007. Had sold covered calls on some stock that decided to do a swan dive. Stock was down over 20%, calls were up. When you have everyone who sold covered calls trying to buy them back at the same time, it's supply and demand, and call sellers knowing that they've got you over the barrel. Wondered if some enterprising folks were selling naked calls, knowing that chances of a bounce were small.
Any chance of a downloadable version where I don't have to sign up with scribd?
You could use Jing or some other free capture software, and capture the images and text that you want; a little time consuming.
Try memorization
GMI-August2010.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/?fk3jikoa2lytb08
PA: Thanks! I tried searching but just kept coming up with other sites linking to ZH. Your avatar has to be the creapiest one on here. Wow. Some half-wit junked you for that.
Many thanks, too. I really dislike scribd.
frank it is me, velobabe.
i've changed my ways.
i have condoms etc.
...and in other news....even ABC's consumer index is taking a nose dive.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0318661920100803
It's a double dip! Or is that depression...say it with me ABC, depression.
Right in time for QE 1 point 6789.
<Raises hands>
I can't believe this nonesense! Where is Beale?
Where is Beale?
He called and said he was mad as hell and he wasn't going to take it anymore. I think that Glenn Beck will be filling in for him, though.
"filling in" as in replacing the pus in a zit with fecal matter?
G. Beck that is; Howard Beale was real.
Look in the mirror and see if you don't recognize the problem. Good luck and God speed.
Nikkei currently down 139 points.
DOW futures currently up 1 point!
FTSE futures currently down a whopping 4.8 points!
They don't want the U.S. and European markets to resemble reality do they! They are pure propoganda tools now, used to show to the masses how well the government wants the fake economy to appear to be.
I'm looking forward to reading this but have my hands full just now.
If we're not in a depression now it's definitely still on the table. Figuring out where we are on the big 'V' or 'W' probably doesn't apply here. Lots of ups and downs from 1929-1942 remember - but mostly a lot of things just...well... sucking.
Monkeynomics
www.ted.com/talks/laurie_santos.html
"Don't fuck with me now, man, I am Ahab" - Raoul Duke
Meanwhile, Abbey Joseph left the nunnery to make some bullish comments and still predicts SPX 1250-1300 range by EOY.
Heh heh, nice one!
She's turning into quite the contrarian indicator. Will be interesting to see if her latest call works out as well...
Hey, given where we are, who can confidently say she's dead wrong about that call. TPTB seem to be intent on hitting those kinds of heights, with the all but embalmed Greenspan saying it is an important ingredient of the recovery.
The CNBC wheel-out of Abbey always signals the top of the pump.
In the paper he talks about Strauss & Howe's book "The Fourth Turning". That book, though not absolutely perfect in every way, was uncanninily accurate in its predictions of the future, being written in the 90s. The point that Raoul Pal discusses from the book is that this 80 year cycle is going to end badly (as they all do), no matter what the Fed or anybody else tries to do to prevent it. The sooner they give up and let this rotten mess fail, the sooner we get through the inevitable bad times and hopefully get on to the good times that can follow. The most important thing isn't to try and keep this crisis from happening; it's to try and make sure we come out on the other side as good as possible.
It's the 'anomaly' in the Matrix...the system must crash and reboot...actually quite natural. Most systems in nature go through a cycle, build to unsustainable levels and collapse. Chaos theory rules...
no, they most certainly do not. Nature finds a sustainable equilibrium.
The only place where it does not is the deer on the island anomaly. Over time, animals and plants evolve to even smack down invasive weeds.
Our system is one of unchecked geometric growth led by a group of "academics" who do not understand the limits thereof.
Our only hope out of this is fusion power...yet I see very little in terms of the Manhattan Project necessary to move that ball down the field. Instead, we squander our printing on bankers and debt...for fuckin what? Coke binges and mansions?
The only hope to sustain the current cycle is fusion power, which isn't going to happen in time. We're going to crash hard, take a few steps back, then if we don't extinct ourselves, progress on a path that will be more sustainable than the path we're currently on.
Trav7777, s/he's right. There's no equilibrium or balance in nature. Life is actually a dynamic nonequilibrium, with key variables functioning relative to certain fundamental thresholds.
Check out: http://www.resalliance.org/564.php
The illusion of balance and of unconstrained growth or growth as preserving balance is fiction, one that underlies much of the Keynesianism at least as I understand it.
Need to check out species population dynamics over time. Equlibrium is impossible since variables such as weather, incoming solar radiation impact on available resources, constantly change. Species populations grow until some factor changes that, sometimes dramatically in the form of extinction. If equilibrium was the rule there would be no mutation or diversity. Chaos is the rule....everything degrades to chaos eventually.
2012 Baby.
It's time to cull the herd.
Trav, no offense, I like msot of your stuff, but nature Seldom "finds a sustainable equilibrium", because very few of nature's inputs are stable. Look at a long term chart of lynx vs snowshow hare populations. Or very long term charts of rainfall most places. Nature learns to endure variation, usually by accepting periodic mass die off.
As for the notion that Fusion needs a "Manhatten project to move that ball down the field" I invite you to look up "pollywell". CHEAP, cheap, cheap. And kinda funded, by Barry, no less! (even he can get a thing or two right).
Yes, I read about that pollywell idea some time ago and was struggling to remember the name so that I could look it up. It does seem to have a lot of potential and it is strange how it was underfunded and ignored for so long. It almost seems to have gotten the same treatment as the "cold fusion" of Pons and Fleischer. Thanks for posting this.
By the way I was talking to a graduate physics student at Stanford who told me there is a physics professor there who believes that cold fusion does have potential and has been working on it. Did not get the professor's name.
We won't have fusion power until the oil companies are satisfied that the last obtainable drop of oil has been sold, period.
Oil companies won't have sold the last obtainable drop of oil until we find an alternative source of cheap energy. Period.
Your "period" is meaningless. These two statements mean exactly the same thing -- only mine emphasizes the opposite of yours. Of course they're going to sell their oil. Until they can't. Indeed, the transition will happen on the "day" that the marginal cost of oil exploration and extraction equals the marginal cost of generating a comparable amount of fission energy (or whatever the proposed alternative is). This is basic depletable resource economics.
Read up on the Dell anti-competitive suit by Intel stuffing Dell full of dough if they don't use AMD. The IP is Mountain High thrown into Valley Low by Big Dough. sic semper tyrannis
And should a viable new energy resource be developed, the energy industry will be on it like a duck on a junebug.
The system's pretty stale by now. It's the same pattern, for what, billions of years?
It's pretty mindless when you think about it: existing for the sake of existing.
I'm sure the next lot of "advanced peoples" will think they're @ the top of the heap and above any sort of decay or collapse and will be quite surprised when their end comes around.
.. for what? The next society after that?
And the next? Sisyphean, cruel.
EV-O-LUTION!!!!
Basically it all comes down to "if we don't get the crap kicked out of us when we screw up", we end up far worse and in debt to a false god.
Thanks TD for the continued quality information, background and perspective!
I need a little clarification on the EURO chart on page 48 near the end, is it predicting a Euro collapse or a Dollar collapse? My confusion comes from the label of the legend it says USD/EUR shouldn't that be the other way around?
Thanks.
I believe he is calling for the collapse of the euro soon. The usd/euro ratio is about 1.33/1 so that is accurate on the right hand scale.
The implication are for the USD to rise against the euro, however both currencies head lower as the ratio drops.
It is impressive the way the currencies have followed the M2 money supply ratios.
Yep. Needed that "duh" moment. Thanks.
EXCELLENT!
But another guy, like TD, who persists in saying "reign in" for "rein in"...
I'm singing in the rain (while you're reining in the "reign").
When it reigns it pours
supremacy,
but when it reins it
pulls it back
But can't say that I've seen TD use "week" in lieu of "weak". I notice these things when reading like Robert Shaw's nails on a chalkboard, but try to rein/reign in my grammar comments. Of course, all my posts are purfect.
Thank You Kreditanstalt! Pehaps it's petty of me, but this has been a thorn in my side ever since I've been a ZH afficianado. Now I am noticing it all over. I just didn't want to be called a grammer Nazi. People! Reins are on a horses bridle. Rein in to slow or stop.
"The Future Recession In An Ongoing Depression"
OOOO...like a tornado inside a hurricane! WEEEEEEEEE!
Good analysis ... until I saw the performance of his recommendations. The one he closed PPR lost 124%. This guy is crazy; or maybe he is right but the world we are living in is crazy.
Plus, he never mentioned the fact the UK is printing money to pay off the debt.
More anecdotal proof - I just got back from a week in Jackson Hole, place was jammed, way more than '08 and '09 - our server at Snake River Grill said business was booming - they can't keep the expensive grape juice in stock, same at Westbank. Flights in were bananas, lots of G IVs and G Vs on the ramp, even saw a Global Express, first time I have seen one of those at KJAC.
Hotels were booked - we stayed at The Wort, booked solid, so were the Rusty Parrot and the Lexington.
Xe money fresh from the 'stans ready to play.
Xe (cute)
who thought that name up -he will burn in hell.
The (Eric) Prince of Perpetual War by Private Contractor mercenaries, Hessions, Goths on a leash, blood-suckers, et al.
<FF>
Jackson Hole is upscale place ... attracting the have's ... have not's stay home. When G IV's and V's line the run way it's not your father's vacation spot.
Thankfully, the Yellowstone caldera will take care of them.
Oil money from Bakken in ND, SD, and MT?
Why not? It's a very large play and not all is on federal land.
fucking jackson hole. hole golly hell, that place is. all the hotels etc. have fucking picture of dick fucking cheney and george stupid bush. even a dick cheney avenue by his holy hell golf course. that place had indians, now has creeps bending over to worship these fucks. sorry for the out rage but damn, everybody is really screwed up in Wyoming. just sayin
So, if it is mathematically impossible for the UK to get out from under its debt burden via austerity, I guess the US is doubly f-ed?
RobotTrader
I was in Vegas also...I met with Newmont
I do not think you know who there are??
strange your name rimes with Cramer
A most concise, clear, and easy read of what to expect. Have read the 'Fourth Turning' and thought at the time to be a bit "out there". Since the passage of time, it's concerning how the events have meshed with what was predicted. I now give more weight to these 'turning' forecasts and position accordingly. I also consider this time as a gift to accomplish such positioning. I sincerely hope that you are doing something similar to protect yourselves and your families. Hard times coming.
so zero hedge.....
what will it take to get to post BS pic's
$100
$1000
$2000
Zero Trader/Cramer is posting PICs
Great piece but he really lost me at the end with his hurrendous trades....he went short in Feb '09??? and never covered??? ....not something a trained technician would have likely done--- but I do agree with his overall thesis. I am just shocked at his sub, sub par trading performance.
This Rue Paul fella been short the entire 80% upmove. Maybe he'll make money someday, but unless he's paper trading, he might have to brush up his CV.
The reason Rue is sharing this report is because he needs new subscribers so he can meet his margin calls. Please don't make him beg, donate!
Rebel- thank you for this.
A small warning- global heating is going to nuke Texas. Go North, Young Man.
the -125% in GREEN kinda threw me on the bad shorts.
The real key isn't just getting the macro theme correct, its making money.
Didn't Raoul Pal state that the market would crash within two days to two weeks back in mid-May?
Has he come out and explained why he was wrong yet?
clear,vivid look to the future...excellent!!!
Hey, asking for a little help here. What website gives the most comprehensive "Dashboard" of all finance/investment streaming charts? Is it Bloomberg? I looked at the "Think or Swim" package- impressive- but just wondering what info you folks have. Thanks.
Finviz is free at a basic level and very informative and visual, maybe you're probably aware. Don't know about the quality above that paygrade.
QUALIFIER: That said, I don't have a clue about the info strata you're targetting. But here's the link
http://finviz.com/
Thanks - that was very helpful. Trying to learn as much as I can.
"Think or Swim"
F L O A T
Pal seems to do everything by correlation. It's as if he has a whole inventory of charts. He looks for the same overall formations in charts, rescales one chart to fit on top of another, and voila you have a way of predicting what will happen next. He also seems to get a lot of matching charts by looking at YOY %change data. I'm not in a position to judge the validity of his work, but found it compelling and I will be ordering a copy of "The Fourth Turning".
Given his predictions for the near future, perhaps the drop in the gold price is anticipating eventual sovereign defaults.
Very interesting thoughts on how things may play out in the next downleg, and how it will differ from "normal" recessions. Had not seen some of the chart data before, and he had some very interesting combinations. However, it seemed that these very interesting musings did not touch on the potential effects of a currency crisis or significant loss of confidence in a sovereign's ability to repay debt - particularly among major economies of the "developed" world. He talks of longer-term deflation in the UK, but if there is a currency crisis or large default, outcomes could be quite different.
"When an economy is suffering a balance-sheet recession, people are more inclined to save as opposed to spend. When you lower the yield on bonds then you force people to save more money to generate the same income. More savings equals more deflation." p. 19
If he thinks that is deflationary, wait until gov'ts try to rewrite their entitlement contracts with their citizens, and folks start waking up in earnest to the smell of "this isn't the retirment payment you thought you were getting" coffee. I think that one main reason for low savings rates in the US has been the perception by many that Social Security would be there for them at generous levels, along with their private sector pensions and health benies. Just think what will happen to the savings rate when more folks realize their retirement funding perceptions and reality are worlds apart.
Argh. I wish he had expounded a bit more clearly on the DOLLAR. He says it is finding its "base" before a "a big rapid move." I presumed the base was a floor from which it will go higher, and in his words go higher "rapidly." But then he uses the same words in describing the Euro: that it will make a "big move"...and then he qualifies it with a sovereign debt crisis, which is clearly indicating the Euro's big move DOWN.
So was he distinguishing the Euro's move from the dollar's? Is he saying the dollar's move will be rapidly "UP" or rapidly "DOWN" after forming its base? Would love someone to clarify definitively what he was saying. Thanks!
Well, I am a deflationist. This report is a great read for deflationists. Although I respect that fact that the gentleman is one of the few who provide a track record of their past recommendation, isn’t the record a disaster? Shouldn,y that make me people diregard his analysis? Just a question
The gentleman was a hedge fund /Goldie sales guy. There are lots of sales guys who can run around and talk the lingo.
If one were to do the exact opposite of his recommendations, he would be doing very well now. Give him credit that he shows his record and sticks to them. In reality, one would have gone bankrupty long before by following his recommendations.
cheers
cheers
Yes - and after a few decades of camping out on arable land - living on root vegetables etc - some enterprising folks will take a slow boat to Asia - to be amazed at the kind of lives - silks, technology and the Women - wow . have to peek in from outside the glass doors though.
... and how - they will wonder do humans achieve such a life of opulence?
Upon further observation - they may reach the conclusion - wow - these people actually respect some rules, are not trying to scam every single person they run into, respect the laws, work hard, have families and have a set of social norms, have no tolerance for govt officials who are corupt ( in fact they love the entertainment provided every weekend by publicly dipping corrupt officials in hot oil - such fun!).
Thats it? Yep ( in fact if you look through the dusty history books - such a society did exist in North America ( circa 1950 AD).
I appreciate the excellent macro economic analysis and macro forecast, highlighting what a disaster our Western Ponzi scheme-economic model has wrought; however, what does this have to do with the stock market?
The format of this report is proper in that the arguments are well presented....with the qualifier being what they can actually do with money....
However as everyone knows...one is as good as their last trade....
...................
Any report should have some actual proof of true capability....
....................
That being said...I would be very suspect of any long term investments of any kind.
The Xi's that were described above....are succinct.....and a wrong move will wipe out the blabber so to speak....
....................
What I want to see is a massive broadening of a RETAIL oriented worldwide defragmented electronic direct access exchange whereby there may be over 1 billion RETAIL accounts pressing their own computer buttons...supported by a wiki fact based format....HFT can be resolved with a ONE SECOND minimum.....and no off exchange trading venues....
....................
I retired at 46 from making $ in the securities business....a little late versus 36.....and no I did not work for GS....
And yes I made preps for the current environment starting over 10 years ago....
.............................
And what's next ?
One will have to know how to trade.....whatever it is...
Buy and Hold is a much riskier endeavor....
And small (ability to move) is good....
...........................
This should keep plenty on ths side. This is good, I will need some buyers when we hit Dow 12000. By then folks won't be able to take it anymore and will rush back into the market. Thats when I will need the suckers to unload my stock.
Keep reading the doom and gloom, I'm not ready yet, stay put on the sidelines.
Who fuckin' knows anymore... Don't know if it's the summer doldrums, but damn this is choppy.
Keep filling your mind with gloom and you will live in gloom.
a question: even with the S/P in the process of retreating after a new high, consider this: to which extent are we not pricing a Weimar like parabolic rise in stocks ? after all, the current wisdom is SP => 600 then 3000 , why not head to 1800 waiting for the dust to settle ?
Huge volatility!
http://i35.tinypic.com/ztjgnt.jpg
This bottoming pattern has woked like a charm since March 2009.
Found this interesting piece on Market Oracle:
Economic Recovery for the Few
Nice article, and compelling toward our beliefs, to be sure, but predictions over 10 year spans that are not completely underpinned on a theory of energy supply are blindfolded dart throws.
Oil. It's all about the oil.
Energy=money=power.
The U.S. has been the #1 energy user for its entire run as top world dog. It's inane to not comprehend that the two are causatively related.
What determines the future is who has control of the energy.
Energy per world capita is now on a downward trend. Oil production has peaked and is declining. My opinion is that oil production will decrease at a very fast rate - maybe 8-10% a year.
This is the core issue. Debt, GDP, and so on are all just facets on the great stone known as energy.
Oil/energy is the unifying concept. Understand energy, and the resource wars that were begun in earnest in 2001, and you will be able to predict where we're going and why.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- An idea that could create a massive refinance wave -- and a back-door stimulus program to boost consumer spending -- is generating debate among investment bank analysts in New York and in Washington policy circles.
Morgan Stanley & Co. released a report, entitled "Slam Dunk Stimulus," last week arguing that the Treasury Department could engineer a broad, streamlined refinance program for all government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/could-the-government-create-a-backdoor-...
http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2010/20100729-Thu.html
This guy sure has a shitty trading record as of late.
Don't wait to see what the endgame is. Make the endgame. Be part of it. Be part of history if it ends up written accurately. If not, we tried.
i read every page of this report. it's interesting that right after the 2.4 gdp report we get the inventory revision information scaling the 2.4 back to 1.6 or so. but the market reaction is nil.
my view is that the "stockmarket" now exists mainly for "traders" to have something to do during the day. reality is meaningless given insolvency. so why not keep the "stockmarket" open to keep the bad guys (criminals) off the street just as the public schools (babysitting operation) keep punks locked up from 8 to 3 or 4 pm.
we're all safer when the "traders" have somethiong to do during the day rather than rampaging the steets.
Whoever is buying $500 Coach handbags obviously didn't get the recession memo.
Yesterday's drop on earnings totally erased.
Market love bad news.
I THOUGHT THIS A GOOD POST UNTIL I SAW HIS POSITION PERFORMANCES. OUCH !!!
The tragedy that is unfolding is the unravelling, the death of the Yuppie dream.
For some that will mean no longer being able to attain it. For others it will mean simply that the rise and rise has been replaced with a plateau. For still others it will mean once having been a part of it and being forced to let go.
Didn't we almost have it all....
cool thank for the gdp in gold graph
Depressions are so nice boys and girls.
All this talk in the comments section about spending in all the great places to be. Ski resorts, gambling meccas, etc. Could one go out on a limb here and suggest that folks spend more when they think their money will be worth less? I believe they call it an inflationary binge. How would we know it when we see it?
The data looks bad for the economy and equities. As a senior citizen with bond holdings, mostly muni, is it time to sell these? I don't see much discussion about this on zerohedge, yet a big portion of investors are seniors with bond holdings, especially long term bonds other than treasuries. What do the PTB here think?
And . . . I received a newletter from Edward Jones telling investors why they should not be worried about their muni bond holdings and not to sell them. This tells me that there must be a lot of people selling their holdings. Any other thoughts?
Interesting outlook on munis from Addison Wiggin over at The Daily Reckoning:
Much more and well worth the read:
http://dailyreckoning.com/son-of-subprime-part-ii/
didn't read the whole thing but i got far enough to see that someone paid his clue phone bill.....yes, virginia, this is a depression and one made at the hands of evil - like rockefellers, goldman sachs, congresss, and the presidents...
if he want cellular clue phone service i recommend he commune with murray rothbard and antal fekete regarding a solution to our economic evils.
Updated DOW daily chart:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but this EXPERT sucks in FX, Commodities, and Equities. (see pages 53-54)
The only place where he's profitable is Fixed-Income.
This tells me that amateurs (like me) should stay away from the three former...
There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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