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GM's "Channel Stuffing" Goes Mainstream

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"General Motors Co. stocked Jim Ellis Chevrolet in Atlanta with plenty of Silverado full-size pickups in early 2011, part of a wager on a strong economic recovery. The strategy is backfiring. “We thought that this year would bring back the kind of economic activity that would translate into us selling more trucks,” Mark Frost, the dealership’s general manager, said in a phone interview. “It’s not happening.” Supply of Silverado has ballooned to 6 1/2 months worth at the dealership, a figure Frost, 52, calls “a little scary.” The Detroit-based automaker, 33 percent owned by the U.S. after its 2009 bankruptcy, has 280,000 Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups on dealers’ lots around the country. If sales continue at June’s rate, that would be enough to last until November." Thus begins a story just published by Business Week covering a topic that Zero Hedge has been pounding the table on since last December, and which just hit an all time record for fresh start Government Motors a few days ago - namely the firm's propensity to dump as much inventory as possible on dealer floors. Granted, many have been quick to mock, ridicule and ignore our glaringly obvious findings (especially since these come at a time when the light vehicle sales SAAR is back to a 10 month low, and likely to plunge once the long overdue inventory liquidation finally takes place), although now that the topic of General Motors' "strategy" of overfilling dealer inventory is front page news, it finally may get the overdue respect it deserves, especially since as Jefferies' Peter Nesvold cautions, this is nothing more than new GM reverting to the habits of the old one (the one that filed and needed taxpayer bailouts for a few hundred thousand union workers).

So because we have pretty much said all there is to say on the topic, here is Business Week's far more "credible" perspective on precisely the same issue:

After GM’s truck inventory swelled to 122 days worth of average sales, the company said 100 to 110 will be normal going forward for such a large and complex line of vehicles, compared with 60 to 70 days for most models. Peter Nesvold, a Jefferies & Co. analyst, isn’t convinced. Ford Motor Co., which makes similar trucks, is running at 79 days, and Nesvold says GM averaged 78 days on hand at year end from 2002 to 2010.

It’s unbelievable that after this huge taxpayer bailout and the bankruptcy that we’re right back to where we were,” Nesvold, who has a “hold” rating on the stock, said in a telephone interview. “There’s no credibility.” In a research note he asked: “Is GM falling into old, bad habits?”

GM's response:

“Unequivocally no,” Don Johnson, vice president of U.S. sales, said in a July 3 interview in response to the question. “We’re managing the business to match production with demand in the marketplace. Nothing in the last few months that we have done would indicate any different.”

Two plants in Michigan and Indiana are idle through July 15, and GM “may make some tweaks or additional adjustments if necessary,” Johnson said on a July 1 conference call. Truck output will slow in the second half of the year, he said.

The net effect of GM carrying higher truck supply is pulling ahead 2012 earnings into 2011, said Nesvold, who has a $36 price target on the stock.

“They feel a lot of pressure to put up some good numbers,” he said.

And because there is "pressure", Channel Stuffing is perfectly allowed, even though it sure raised a few eyebrows over at AOL some years ago:

“Truck sales are pretty subpar, and that’s really the only area that is getting my attention,” Paul Ballew, chief economist for Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co., said in a phone interview. “If you’re at GM or Ford, you’re certainly focused on that issue right now, and you should be.”

Full-size pickups are still the two top-selling vehicles in the U.S. Ford sold 264,079 F-Series in the year’s first half, a 9.9 percent increase, while customers bought 182,785 of GM’s Silverado, a gain of 9.6 percent.

The volumes are much lower than before the recession and the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler Group LLC, the Auburn Hills, Michigan-based automaker, now controlled by Fiat SpA. In June 2005 alone, GM sold 109,359 Silverados when it offered employee discounts to all consumers. Ford followed suit and sold 126,905 F-Series pickups the next month.

GM’s target of 100 to 110 days supply of trucks at the end of this year and next year is higher than some competitors in part because Silverado and Sierra have fewer direct sales to fleet customers, Johnson said. Those orders spend almost no time in inventory, which can lower the days-supply figure.

But none of this matters: GM's response - it is transitory:

GM’s Johnson says he sees inventory of higher-mileage cars and lower-mileage trucks being “more in balance” by fourth quarter. The March 11 earthquake near Japan helped deplete industrywide inventory of high-mileage cars.

“General Motors has so many hot-selling vehicles that it’s kind of bipolar,” said Frost, who has been selling cars since 1987. “It’s a strange place in inventory overall.”

Well, judging by recent performance it is far more unipolar. As in constant depression. For those who wish to read the balance of the BusinessWeek article, they can do so here. For everyone else, who has not yet been zombified by the lunacy of Wall Street yet, here is the chart we have been presenting for 7 months now, and which confirms everything one needs to know about the future of Government Motors.

 

Lastly, after we said two days ago that we "expect the broader media and Wall Street economists (and Joe LaVorgna) to completely ignore this data point as it roundly negates everything the propaganda machine has been spouting for months", we would like to extend our apologies to Bloomberg-BusinessWeek. They have once again demonstrated that in the mainstream media world they are certainly the one organization with the most honor (if a little late sometimes).

 

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Tue, 07/05/2011 - 17:59 | 1427882 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

If you build it, pray they come.

LOL

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 22:02 | 1428419 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

namely the firm's propensity to dump as much inventory as possible on dealer floors.

Every brand does this. It is not uniquely GM. 

Granted, many have been quick to mock, ridicule and ignore our glaringly obvious findings...

There are a few reasons why some have mocked ZH's reoccurring "channel stuffing" articles.

First, ZH leads the reader to believe that GM is purposely stuffing dealer inventory so the monthly sales figures reported by GM appear better than they really are. This is just not true. The sales figures reported on the 1st are sales of specific VIN's attached to specific consumers. The first sentence in GM's press release confirms this, "General Motor's dealerships in the US reported 215,xxx sales...."

If you're claim was correct, the press release would say, "GM reported 215,xxx sales to dealerships in June...." or "GM dealers purchased 215,xxx from the manufacturer...."

In reality, the only credible conversation about "channel stuffing" is exactly what Business Week reported: specifically, GM has far too much Silverado inventory sitting on dealer lots. Nowhere in the BW article is there any mention of GM distorting monthly sales figures by producing too much truck inventory, which is the angle that ZH takes.

GM's bloated inventory rests squarely on truck production.  Their inventory of cars and small/medium SUV's are perfectly normal and within industry standards.  Again, it's solely a truck problem.   

Now, the real reason GM has too much truck inventory is not because they're trying to fluff month-end sales numbers (which is the angle ZH took); rather, GM underestimated the rise in oil prices in the first half of this year, and overestimated consumer's willingness to ignore it. The extreme volatility of gas prices over the past 3 years has permanently affected the market's appetite for large trucks, SUVs, etc.

This fear of gas prices can be proven by the fact that Ford sold more V6 trucks than V8's in the month of May, which was the first time this happened in over 20 years (!).  If consumers are shopping for trucks, they have turned to smaller, more fuel efficient engines, and Ford was far better prepared for this.  GM, as always, made a massive error in judgement.

I absolutely loathe GM, but I think it's important for readers to understand that the "channel stuffing" theme you've been preaching is greatly distorted.  The only inventory problem GM has is with trucks, and that's a function of consumers still fretting over gas prices. All of this has nothing to do with fudging monthly sales numbers.  

Respectfully.... 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 23:54 | 1428649 homegr0wn
homegr0wn's picture

Read GM's financial statements, you fucking dolt.

"we generally recognize revenue upon the release of the vehicle to the carrier responsible for transporting it to the dealer" 2010 GM Annual Report, pg. 44

Please do some research before you go on a long rant that is inaccurate. Else, you'll continue to look like a dipshit.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 00:11 | 1428691 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

Recoginzing revenue is entirely different than the sales figures that are released on the first of each month.  Idiot.

Your apology is accepted in advance.

 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 00:59 | 1428716 homegr0wn
homegr0wn's picture

Holy shit, you're dumb as rocks.

"For the month, Chevrolet Cruze had its best retail sales since launch as Chevrolet dealers reported 18,996 retail deliveries." GM May Sales Release

YOU ARE A FUCKING TARD. Didn't I just tell you to do some research before posting, son?

 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 01:44 | 1428798 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

 

Dude.  What the fuck is your problem in understanding this? 

"....Chevrolet dealers reported 18,996 retail deliveries...."  Operative word: retail.  Not wholesale.  How can you possibly be confused by this?  When a dealer reports a "retail delivery" that means it fucking sold it to a retail customer.  Notice how it doesn't say "wholesale deliveries from the manufacturer."

Just read the fucking first sentence of GM's press release, which I've pointed out numerous times:

"General Motors dealers in the United States reported 215,358 total sales...."

http://investor.gm.com/sales-production/

It can't be any clearer. It doesn't say the GM factories reported 215,358 sales.  It doesn't say the dealer bought 215,358 cars from the factories.  It clearly states the dealers reported 215,358 sales.  HOW FUCKING CLEAR CAN IT POSSIBLY BE?

Of course, you probably won't believe it, so I've got a risk free trade for you.  Take all the fucking money you have and buy GM stock.  If GM stock goes up, you win.  If GM stock goes down, you win.... you can sue them for misleading investors.  If your stupid claims are correct, and the month-end sales reported on July 1st are truly not "dealer sales" and are actually dealer "purchases" then you can sue them for your losses (plus punitive damages) because the press release clearly states otherwise. Call it the "Detroit put."   

There you go - a guaranteed risk-free trade, and you didn't even have to pay 2/20 for it.  And this doesn't even take into consideration the instant fame you'd receive for exposing GM's blatant sales lies. 

Eat it.  

 

 

 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 14:03 | 1429691 homegr0wn
homegr0wn's picture

Everything needed to contradict everything you have said from your initial and subsequent posts is available on the GM.

AGAIN, DO SOME RESEARCH IDIOT. I'M CAN'T STEER YOU THROUGH EVERY ARGUMENT IN LIFE. Also, please start with reading what channel stuffing is, as I think a lot of you misinformation comes from not understanding basic accounting and financial terminology. Might be useful to go look at the definition of retail delivery that GM uses. I don't think it means what you think it means.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:36 | 1429581 throughthewire
throughthewire's picture

The dealer inventory chart above says it all. NOT GOOD.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:00 | 1427884 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

The other day I saw a brand new Ford Fusion with US government tags on it. Why the fuck is the US government buying Fords when it owns GM? Don't they get a good enough "employee discount"?

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:03 | 1427900 Caught Stealing
Caught Stealing's picture

Its not about the price...its in the quality. Why would the government trust in a product that they themselves build?

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:06 | 1427910 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

+1, HA!

Or, it's Fords' version of their bailout.

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:35 | 1428107 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Here at Government Motors, our cars suck so bad, we won't even buy them.

 

 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 02:17 | 1428813 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Actually I've been saying this since the whole GM fiasco began.

These are WAR companies. The retail end of the business is the smoke and mirrors.

In real terms, I'll bet it's been a long time since GM made any money whatsoever. It's been a bank (GMAC), much like GE etc. anyways.

So none of this channel stuffing crap will matter when GM is wrapped in Red White an dBlue.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/a-year-and-a-day-later/

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 20:04 | 1428168 Dirt Rat
Dirt Rat's picture

Around these parts, the Sheriff's Department are sporting around the county in brand new Chryslers. I've never seen them use Mopar products before. There must be some sort of subsidy going on.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 21:15 | 1428295 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

or maybe they didn't like all the rear end problems with the po-po impalas. gm fixed them for the po but not everyone else. class action lawsuit.

http://www.detnews.com/article/20110705/AUTO01/107050361/1148/Impala-own...

 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 07:41 | 1428994 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Y'know...it's difficult to muster sympathy for someone that willingly drives an Impala.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:03 | 1427890 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

CNBC will be sure to ignore this until someone loads the story into a GM truck and drives it into Becky Quick's dressing room. Then the story will be about Becky's stuffed channel and not GM's channel stuffing.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:05 | 1427907 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

eew.. I threw up a little CD.. ;p

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:10 | 1427919 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

My trousers moved. 

-Warren

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:12 | 1427924 Deepskyy
Deepskyy's picture

Comments like this just beg for a "like" button.

I'm still laughing.

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:55 | 1428009 piceridu
piceridu's picture

In your next life, a comedian...frigging hilarious!

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 21:23 | 1428326 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Becky is pretty, Warren kiss-up is a turn off though

Trish is the best on CNBS, IMHO. Maybe not fully up to speed on everything, however she can maintain a non-biased perspective during interviews few can on that network (including Santelli).

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 22:55 | 1428546 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Damn woman! I <JUNK> you!

A CNBC Anchorette is simply boob(s) in a sweater...

Not to be confused with Cramer the Clown who is a sweating boob...

BTW: I had to junk you... Stevie "The Rat" Ratner's sock puppet was here junking every post in sight... but you...

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 23:01 | 1428560 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

To be fair to the fairer sex, that means that CNBC anchors are Dicks in Depends.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 23:09 | 1428576 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

To be fair... Larry "Cokehead" Kudlow's Depends ARE prescription...

Larry has IBS... Irritable Bowel Syndrome...

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 07:44 | 1429001 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Larry is IBS.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 00:05 | 1428681 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

dude, I was being sarcastic

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:02 | 1427893 BORT
BORT's picture

I would hazard a guess that the profit on those trucks that they have counted as sales is just a "tad" higher than the more popular models they are selling.  Need profit: make some.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:25 | 1427953 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

What's this? Mark-to-unicorn accounting doesn't work with atoms, only binary data in a spreadsheet? Whodathunkit?

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:29 | 1427967 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Maybe they should drop trucks (turkeys) from helicopters. Oops, been tried before.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST01bZJPuE0

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:04 | 1427898 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Last week I was 2 week in the New York area.

I amazed me that you hardly see new cars in the US.

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:04 | 1427903 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

remember Chev used the old Bob Seger song "Like a rock"

hope that happens to the stock....

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:05 | 1427904 Rainman
Rainman's picture

They're just pulling forward demand. This is .gov-owned motors we're talking about here. Must.Save.First.Windbag in '12. That be the business plan.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:42 | 1427991 Manthong
Manthong's picture

No failing for GM until the pensions are fully funded for every vested/near vested UAW and the election is over.

In the mean time, I wonder if the Chinese will name a Ghost City "Silverado".

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:48 | 1428136 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Dewd, the Chinese are so far ahead of the curve it isn't funny. This week in Shanghai they opened a new cafe, perhaps DSK inspired; it's called Maid Cafe, and yes, the waitresses/servants are appropriately attired.

 

Servers are outfitted in black and white French maid fetish cosplay outfits, and greet you at the door with a 'Is there anything I can do to serve you, master/husband?' (the term for husband is the same as master [??] in Japanese).

http://shanghaiist.com/2011/07/05/photos_squealing_schoolgirls_alert.php

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:05 | 1427906 kito
kito's picture

gms recidivism rate beginning to match that of child molesters...

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:09 | 1427917 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Nah, child molesters start to taper off in their 40s and 50s, GM, not so much.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 01:05 | 1428758 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  What? Lay off the 'Nancy Grace" Yes, I agree Casey did the O.J. 'slip away' 

 

          Lets trade!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 01:07 | 1428762 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Hey tool? Shoot me a GM chart! Better yet ! Buy (f) on the dips.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:05 | 1427908 Misean
Misean's picture

Cars sitting on dealer lots. People digging holes for 4 hours a day and then filling them the other 4 hours. Printed fiat stuffed in bottles and burried accross the USeless for people to find and "juice" the ebbublemy.

I fail to see the problem here.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:11 | 1427921 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Problems in order presented:

1. All those autos on lots require mucho concrete/asphalt (bad for environment)

2. Digging holes disturbs worms (bad for enviro)

3. Making glass bottles requires energy needed to produce useless autos (bad for enviro)

4. Juice contains GMOs from evil Monsanto (bad for humans)

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 07:48 | 1429016 snowball777
snowball777's picture

If the people digging the holes received the fiat and gave it to the car dealership, they might need a new salesman...but your estimation of where the fiat actually went is off by several hundred ladder rungs; the bottles are all buried in the PDs backyard and the only holes being dug and filled are by prisoners and goldbugs.

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:07 | 1427912 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Tyler,

Relax, you are doing better than Cassandra did.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:40 | 1427913 hambone
hambone's picture

TYLER / et al - Any info beyond GM?

How does this translate for the US's other "big 2"?  Is this a GM specific issue or same at Ford? 

Just trying to discern if those not effected by the Japanese situation (who were supposed to take this opportunity to gain marketshare) are instead just gaining dealerspace?

Also, any POV on this and potential of pull forward via tax credits ending in China?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gm-china-sales-jump-to-record-highs-2011-07-05

Just curious, if US lots are stuffed, China just ended their tax breaks...hmmm, is this all priced in (since stock is still priced above $0 I'm guessing not)?

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:53 | 1428004 BORT
BORT's picture

From Ford Q1 2011 Report
Total                              2010  2011
March 31                         679   769
December 31 -- Prior Year 677  734

 

It appears in First quarter up 35000

* Excludes Volvo
** South America dealer stocks are based, in part, on estimated vehicle sales for the six major markets in that region
*** Europe dealer stocks are based, in part, on estimated vehicle sales for the 19 major markets in that region
**** Asia Pacific Africa dealer stocks are based, in part, on estimated vehicle sales for our 12 major markets in that region

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:07 | 1427914 pizzgums
pizzgums's picture

perhaps the massive boycott by all the screwed over GM bondholders is starting to be felt...

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:16 | 1427934 Rainman
Rainman's picture

...pray ye are correct, per one screwee.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:13 | 1427926 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

The sooner the Sheep are awakened to the Robbery and Wide Spread Systemic Treason the Sooner we can have Taxation with Representation Back!

 

The Lobby Whores have Robbed the World Blind!

 

The reason America is Broke is becuase the Top 1% does NOT! Pay Taxes!!

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:28 | 1428096 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

That's not the reason why the US is broke. It's not a taxation issue. In a list too long to suggest it's complete: useless wars, MIC, welfare, SS, Medicare, Medicaid, bailouts, etc., etc., etc. 

Usually I get your stuff, but this one's pretty far off...

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:21 | 1427944 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

has there ever been in history a government owned entity that didn't over produce?  i don't find this news.  SELLING those vehicles is news of course--the fact that we have a car glut is not.  I'm not predicting a price war but that is "the norm" in these matters--and the point of Government Motors is NOT to run it like a business.  We shall see.  Obviously the quality of the vehicles produced at The GM is far better as are the look and feel.  Perhaps a "recycling plan" is in order then?  Of course we can always just give up and walk away from the industry as well...

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 23:12 | 1428583 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Actually most countries where the government produces the cars not only have crappy cars they are in short supply as well. In Russia there used to be a 10 year waiting list for Ladas. In case you don't know, a Lada was a cheap copy of a 1966 Fiat that was produced until the early 80s.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:24 | 1427950 ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

Can't lay off those government workers before the election.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:26 | 1427956 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Hmmm.  I wonder what the geiger counter readings are for imports from Japan?  Cesium already in the Tokyo water supply; milk unfit to drink in Hawaii.  Sudden spike in infant mortality on the West Coast.

A glowing black swan?

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:27 | 1427957 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

New 525 h.p. Camaros flying off the lots here in Los Angeles.

Those stupid guys at GM should have stuffed the dealer lots with Camaros, not freaking pickup trucks.

It ain't Texas out here.......

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:37 | 1427979 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

The Foreclosure clean up crews seem to prefer the Ford F-150.

Four new engines are mated to a fuel efficient 6-speed automatic transmission equipped with a tow haul mode.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:27 | 1427958 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

These are EXACTLY the same problems I always saw coming out of Chinese PLA-SOE. 

This is command economy at work. 

It is no different than Stalinist chandelier factories building one multi-ton light fixture to meet the annual quota, or Mao's backyard junk-steel foundries from the Great Leap.

Have you ever met an economist that ever ran one real business successfully.

Get the government out of business. No bailouts.  No favors.  No cronies on fake employment boards. End the Fed.

They should make every GM executive and bailed out banker larp around in blue Mao suits (zhifu) waving placards of Obama the Dear Leader.

(Maybe the white dunce hats too for good measure.)

Just so everyone knows THE TAXPAYERS paid their paychecks.

Oh Yes.

Fuck you Obama and every fellow traveler West Wing fantasy economist that keeps the fraud going.

You killed the Republic.

We are warming the ovens.

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:27 | 1427959 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

 Tax breaks for GM owners...

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:28 | 1427962 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

This should create about 150 or so jobs, dusting off cars on the showroom floor.  Each job should only cost the taxpayers about a quarter million apiece.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:40 | 1427987 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Kudos to ZH.  Really - the work done here shames the entire business-reporting brigade.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:58 | 1428021 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Which isn't really that hard for Zh since no one else does any buiness reporting.

However, they do seem to do a lot of buiness repeating.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:52 | 1427998 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Again, I keep saying it but no one will listen...  if they'll make their cars cheap enough, I'll take one off their hands...  the significant discount, of course, necessitated by the car being a total throw away piece of shit that I won't keep for 100,000 miles (probably won't keep it for 60,000)...  along with the fact that assholes built it and bailed out that POS institution... 

If they ever go on tv again and make a marketing blitz of pretending to repay the american people, then I will never buy one no matter the price unless I can take it to the crusher and salvage it for a profit...  which will be youtubed of course.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:00 | 1428006 BORT
BORT's picture

From Ford Q1 2011 Report  Dealer Stocks in 000's
Total                              2010  2011
March 31                         679   769
December 31 -- Prior Year 677  734

 

It appears in First quarter up 35000

* Excludes Volvo
** South America dealer stocks are based, in part, on estimated vehicle sales for the six major markets in that region
*** Europe dealer stocks are based, in part, on estimated vehicle sales for the 19 major markets in that region
**** Asia Pacific Africa dealer stocks are based, in part, on estimated vehicle sales for our 12 major markets in that region

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 18:57 | 1428014 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

They have no incentive to do good work. They know Obama will come running with tax payer money again when they go BK.

This is the danger of the government picking winners and losers.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:41 | 1428054 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 20:12 | 1428158 statlawyer
statlawyer's picture

-

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 01:11 | 1428764 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

+1 buzz. You are steadfast. I respect that.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:16 | 1428057 onlooker
onlooker's picture

Buyer requests Dealer response. I will buy a v6 silverado at $200 a month @ zero % interest, no down. elderdallastexas@aol.com

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:25 | 1428083 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Brilliant. if the SHTF you have a truck. If 20%+ inflation starts, you are locked into zero interest on a new truck. you have no money down.

 

Let me know if it works. I might do the same thing.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:53 | 1428144 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

LOL, good luck.  Did an Indian teach you how to negotiate?

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 23:33 | 1428636 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

He's not getting smallpox blankets and whiskey...

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:19 | 1428067 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

June ISM Reports Monthly Change:

China: -1 (on verge of contraction)
Japan: -0.5 (in contraction)
UK: -1 (in contraction)
Germany: -3 (17-month low)
Italy: -3 (in contraction)
France: -2.5 (18-month low)
US: +2 (on verge of "decoupling")

And this "+2" for US ISM, much of it is restocking inventories (mostly auto parts -- anticipation of auto rebound that will never come).

“We thought that this year would bring back the kind of economic activity that would translate into us selling more trucks,” Mark Frost, the dealership’s general manager, said in a phone interview. “It’s not happening.”

Here is yours "+2" explanation for US ISM and reason for last week's stock market rally on below abysmal volume -- channel stuffing by GM (Government Motors) -- unbelievable what this irresponsible GM asshats are doing (and not surprising how WS asshats used this B.S. as an excuse to mark up S&P-500 by 70 points last week) -- moral hazard consequences of Obama bailing out GM idiots using taxpayer money.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:26 | 1428086 mynhair
mynhair's picture

The Criminal Money Laundering effort of the UAW must flow.

Buy NFLX!  The only stock the real world wouldn't touch at $20.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:44 | 1428128 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Two solutions. [1] Have the government buy them and dump them into an active volcano. [2] Send them to China in exchange for all the bonds they are holding.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:53 | 1428146 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

+2

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 19:57 | 1428154 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Well the government only has 500m shares left to offload. Not a big overhang on the name.

Looks like averaging down, until the next bankruptcy will be the strategy for this name.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 20:06 | 1428170 digalert
digalert's picture

I smell CASH 4 CLUNKERS returns with vengeance.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 22:49 | 1428527 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Think of the teleprompter as the "Magic 8 Ball"...

No, not Cramer's meth habit... THE Magic 8 Ball...

The Ball-less Barry Soetoro picks up the only nad in the room and reads the response off of the teleprompter just like it was his own ball...His Magic 8 Ball...

Question: "CASH 4 CLUNKERS"?

Answer: "It is decidedly so"

Moral of the Story
Obama Bin Lyin' has a single black plastic ball...

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 20:31 | 1428210 Dr.Evil
Dr.Evil's picture

So, when do we start to short GM?

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 20:32 | 1428212 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

GM just can't let go of pickups. Like a rock.. wooh..

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 20:45 | 1428233 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

that a large number of customers refuse to ever buy from GM union thugs considered anywhere in the analysis

 

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 20:52 | 1428245 Yossarian
Yossarian's picture

Can someone smarter than I please explain and quantify the subsidy, if any, GM recieved via Ally (formerly GMAC) and The Federal Reserve/Treasury?  Thx...

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 21:19 | 1428313 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

What if the bailouts had no effect on your car purchase, and you don't mind GM's fine products?  Unless someone starts making cars with the Detroit amounts of power and size for the dollar (read: large cars for not so much cash), they're about the only game in town save for Fiat's Chrysler interest.

 

Haven't bought a GM car I didn't like. Between them and Chrysler, one can still get something that doesn't look like it was made for a non-US audience.  That, and it's far cheaper to get more car & more engine from those two - provided you stay far away from Buick and any captive imports.  

 

Then again, General Motors still has cars; they don't have "global-car" golfcarts (Ford for their departure from large, Detroit-like cars), actual golfcarts due to regulation/otherwise (Japan, EU, Latin America, Asia), or blatant copies of something else (China, Korea, GM's bastardized Buick brand). 

 

 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 07:36 | 1428983 Ace Ventura
Ace Ventura's picture

I dunno dude, have you seen the Chevy Aveo or Cruze? These are hardly more than golf-carts themselves. And that awful bastardization of the Impala wasn't exactly 'full-size'. Also, check into where the engine in the Chevy Equinox (among others) comes from.

I'd buy a Ford myself, but I'm long past the days of buying new, particularly in this day and age where a friggin' 4x4 fullsize pickup truck STARTS above $30,000.

I miss my '93 Mustang LX 5.0. Horrible ergonomic design, but the roar of that V-8 when merging effortlessly into traffic....ahhh, the good ol' days. And I bought the thing brand new for less than $15k. What does a V-8 Mustang go for these days, $30k as well? I love the 'new' Dodge Challenger, as that was always one of my favorite muscle cars from the early '70s. But $40k+?? WTF.

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 21:35 | 1428357 Tapeworm
Tapeworm's picture

I did buy a new Silverado gasoline engine 1500 truck when they were giving them away prior to the GM BK. It was about 28% lower than the previous year and far superior to the Japanese trucks. UI do not like such a big engine as it is mostly used for the weight carrying ability in city.

 The Toyota 4WD pickup trucks had a horrible reputation for drive train fails and they cannot carry enough. The knocks on US trucks are misplaced.

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 23:36 | 1428639 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

never had a single problem with a drivetrain on about... 500k miles of various 4wd toyotas (ranging from 4runner to tundra)

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 07:43 | 1428998 Ace Ventura
Ace Ventura's picture

I second that emotion. Currently own a '04 4Runner, zero problems. What Toyota needs are better styling folks, as the Tundra/Sequoia and 4Runner of today look hideous compared to the new Tahoe/Suburban for example. Chrysler always had good stylists (Nitro and Caliber are notable exceptions), but they never gave two shits about engineering better efficiency into their powertrains. Cranking out beautiful Dodge Rams with 13-14 mpg does no good in $4/gallon USA.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 01:10 | 1428763 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I own a 08 zo-6. I wouldn't touch that stock with a viper in hand.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 21:36 | 1428358 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Moved to Atlanta in 1983 and one of the noticeable things was that there were few new cars, trucks, etc.  Starting in 1992, you could see many, many new cars, etc.  I'm sure there is a reason behind that...

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 22:37 | 1428504 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

" Thus begins a story just published by Business Week covering a topic that Zero Hedge has been pounding the table on since last December..."

If I were an overpaid, lazy, tranny porn surfin', worthless, corporate whore mainstream media douche bag "reporter"...

I'd be texting pics of my Weiner to women, phoning prostitutes and...

Plagiarizing Zero Hedge to make my deadlines just like Business Week, Time, WSJ...

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 23:06 | 1428572 Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

Tyler, I just want to jump in here real quick and say YOU ROCK.

ZeroHedge is way ahead of curve.

Thanks to you and your outstanding staff!

 

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 23:23 | 1428611 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Nobody mentioned that they have 6 1/2 months worth of  inventory but the new model introductions take place in 2 months. That means all those vehicles turn into last year's models.

That will be the time to go shopping for bargains and giant rebates.

Tue, 07/05/2011 - 23:43 | 1428645 homegr0wn
homegr0wn's picture

...oops

 

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 07:26 | 1428970 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

CAPTCHA hard me try many times. It not work good.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 09:03 | 1429201 g
g's picture

Fuck GM, I bought a worthy foreign car. Let the GM's rot on the lot.

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:09 | 1429465 Jim B
Jim B's picture

+1  It will be a cold day in hell when I buy a GM!

Wed, 07/06/2011 - 10:05 | 1429452 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

When dealers have vehicles on their lots for more than 30 days, don't they start paying taxes on those?

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