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Gold Acrobatics Resume: $12 Spike In Minutes
The acrobatics in the gold market resume, with ongoing jagged moves in spot indicative not of normal buying or selling but far more fundamentally wrong with the market itself. Gold just jumped $12 in the span of minutes, on what appears to be "reverse liquidation." This is happening as Bernanke notes he is sticking with Keynes and thinks a return to the gold standard would be a mistake.
And a quick snapshot of the market where implied correlation is once again approaching unity, and everything is trading on the back of everything else. Apparently the catalyst was a "better than expected" existing home sales number, which came at 5.37MM on expectations of 5.1MM, still a material decline from the prior 5.66MM but the first piece of good news out of the past 18. Of course, the fact that ever more houses are being "sold" at distressed prices and that banks may finally be rotating the shadow inventory is completely lost on binary speculators. So the market thesis now is we may just have a slow down in the double dip based on accelerating job losses (see today's initial claims for the ignored data).
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I bet it will be back to 1185 within 2 minutes (by 10:35AM).
I posted this MINUTES before the price rose ten dollars in a minute:
The lesson is: READ STOCHASTICS people!
by Johnny Bravo
on Thu, 07/22/2010 - 08:20
#483359
On the daily chart, it looks like the STO is about to pop to the upside. Looks like we might get a relief rally soon in the price of gold.
It seems that 1220 would be a reasonable target for this pop, due to a retracement from the recent fall.
Is gold potentially making a H&S pattern? Or will it break the 50% fib off of the recent plunge and go higher? At any rate, this action should happen very soon.
In fact, if I bet on gold, I'd put money on it being bullish over the very short term. You'll never hear me say that, so you know it must be true.
Yes and the morning gold fix mentioned yesterday that a "breakeven", if you want to call it that, in the August options is about 1220.
Is it really? I'm kind of dumb when it comes to reading options, so I did not know that. Thanks for the information...
I picked 1220 as the target because 1265-1180 = 85.
85 * .5 = 42
1180 + 42 = 1222.
It makes sense for the next target to be at 50% of the previous move before a definite position is taken... this is in the short term, of course.
However, I think that we see a much larger 50% move off of the 6-whatever to 1265 run in the longer term. This doesn't mean that it's going lower forever, but I'd be an intermediate term bear after it hits the 1220 again.
For the record when you disappear:
Boom. Headshot.
JB does his usual belly flop into the latest gold thread. "bullish over the short term"? thanks for the heads up Johnny and the prescient and probing analysis. your schoolboy TA is so reminiscent of our dear departed Master Bates. granted, even your own myopic and self congratulatory prognostications are slowly if grudgingly yielding to reality. good boy! must have looked up the July 27 options with the put to call at 2:1 and seen the average strike at (you guessed it) $1200. good work! you've done your homework. B+
That's why my TA is right on. That's more than I can say for the "goled to 54000" crowd.
If it was schoolboy TA, it wouldn't be right every time.
Like it says in the earlier post, I don't know how to read options, and I don't even try.
Also, the target is 1220, and not 1200.
It's going to make a right shoulder with a neckline at 1180.
Say whatever you want, but it's right! That's a lot more than I can say about the other predictions here on price.
I guess we shall have to ignore your recent DXY predictions then. Care to eat your tail on those too?
fail troll is fail.
wake me up when gold rises over 2% for 2 days in a row.
Despite the fact that the price of gold rose more in the previous decade than almost all U.S. paper assets, the rise has no short rapid spurts. Actually, the market action that limits gold from breaking upward is just one more bit of evidence of the manipulation of gold prices.
Savvy analysts have long noted that as the price of gold might trend upward during daily trading, it has almost never increased by more than 2 percent from the previous day’s COMEX close. Once the price of gold might increase by 2 percent, that event would almost automatically trigger a round of sell orders to either cap the rise or even cause the price to retreat. Even if buyers stepped up their purchasing, it was obvious that a maximum of a 2 percent daily increase at the COMEX close was the unpublicized “rule” imposed by the U.S. government and its trading partners.
This rule of gold price manipulation also has an accompanying rule. If the price of gold goes up by 2 percent in one day, it is prevented from rising by more than 1 percent the following day. Further, under no circumstances is gold to be allowed to rise consistently, as this pattern would attract more buyers.
A few months ago, commodity researcher Adrian Douglas (whom I cited in last week’s column) reported on his long-term study of the COMEX gold closes. He tracked the percentage change from one trading day to the next. Over the course of the study, the price of gold declined from one day to the next by more than 2 percent over 100 times. It increased by more than 2 percent only six times – and this in a market where the price rose by a huge percentage over time. Only once, as best I recall, did the price of gold increase by more than 2 percent one day and by more than 1 percent the next day. Yet there were numerous instances of consecutive daily price declines of 2 percent or more.
A market free of manipulation with prices rising over time would normally show a greater percentage of strong up days than down days. A pattern of continuous price rises would encourage the “momentum” investors to enter the market. Those wishing to hold down the price of gold have an incentive to discourage such investors from helping to drive up gold even higher. The unusual consistency of this 2 percent rule is signature of a manipulated market.
Short term traders can try to take advantage of this pattern. On any day that the price of gold rises by 2 percent, consider selling and replacing at the expected lower price in the next 24-48 hours. If you are looking to buy for the long term, don’t buy on a day where the price of gold is up 2 percent. Instead, wait for a quick retrenchment within a day or two. Just keep in mind that every once in a while the gold market will act contrary to this “2 percent rule.” If you can live with that risk, then you can take advantage of the manipulation of the gold price.
http://numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=9741
If it goes up by more than 2% in one day (a big move for a low beta instrument like gold) wouldn't it make sense that it doesn't go up more than 1% the next day?
How many times have you seen the S&P or Dow go up more than 2% two days in a row? Hardly ever, right?
It doesn't mean manipulation, it just means that the buyers already bought.
Plus, bull markets always rise slowly, as people take their time and wait to invest, and bear markets always drop rapidly, as people always try to be the first one out.
In the last few years we have currencies gapping up and down and running like internet stocks back in '99 & '00. They should be glacial movers.
The best performer in the last decade should have some momentum runs of consecutive 2% moves.
The takeaway is when there are 2% consecutive days of movement, the party is beginning.
Thanks for posting that article. Zero Hedge is a great place to learn things partly because of folks like you. Junky Bravo, not so much.
"You can say I deserve to be junked..."
u deserved to be junked. ur welcome
I just want to know where all the morons that said it would be 2000 by June are at.
Hoping it goes up to 1365 so they can sell and break even? LOL at goldbugs.
You goldbugs couldn't read a chart or trade your way out of a paper bag.
You "hold and pray" based on biased articles from gold salesmen. It reminds me of people who listened to realtors in 2006.
You deserve to lose your money. I'd sell out the next time it hits 1220 if you don't want to lose more.
Where's my sub-$900 gold, then?
Consider your impeccable record pecked, jack-off.
It's coming.
It's a longer term prediction. Technical patterns take a long time to play out.
I told you the wedge would bust at 1265, and it did. I told you it would break down at 1220 before, and it did. Now, it will hit 1220 again before it falls.
Do you have any understanding whatsoever that things don't happen in a day?
Remember my calls when they happen. Next target 1220. Then the plunge below.
Aren't you the one who said support was at 1240, and to "back up the truck?" Damn, I guess you don't know jack. jack-off.
Any tips on the time frame for Gold below $900 - seriously curious.
My only contention with that theory is that people in the East will be buying heavily at that price provided dollar:local currency reation does not oscillate much. If that happens people in west will be scared to buy Gold but in East they buy more when price is low. I clearly remember middle class people buying more than 15 oz for single wedding during 2001(normal is around 7 oz) - which was unthinkable even for many decades before that.
Central Banks are still accumulating. India bought multiple tons at $1045. Anyone who predicts a price anywhere below that (especially based on chart entrails) is a fool. Google it!
fiddler,
A prediction, if GOLD goes back to $900oz.,you had better have all you want before it does, because anyone willl play hell getting delivery on physical if it did.
The Pac Rim,Rooskies, and Indians,would eat up all they could find..........
Only way I see it at that level again, or below is a MAJOR HYPER DEFLATION, Depression part Deaux
"Further, the results of my predictions are impeccable. You'd be wise to listen to them"
Impeccable predictions for whom? daytraders.
Wise?? Give me a break. Punk
Junk
My friend, it does no good to reason with the JBs, nor criticize them, nor junk them. They feed on the attention. One of the early behavioral modification studies demonstrated that a virtually comatose, brain-dead child could learn certain new behaviors if reinforced consistently. Consistent attention to the JBs is just reinforcing their rantings and, worse, encouraging more! Prediction: withdraw the attention and you will get a burst of ever more extreme bullshit and then it will gradually subside./p>
Benny opines that a return to the gold standard would be a mistake.
Of course a return to the gold standard would be a mistake for America...since we haven't had an audit of our 8,000 tonnes of gold since the 1950s!
Hard to have a gold standard when you cannot verify if you even have the gold in the first place.
True dat! 1954 to be exact.
An audit would be required first, jail time second.
"Benny opines that a return to the gold standard would be a mistake."
Sure would, that means the presses would have to stop, or an ounce of Gld hit's $50k+................
Existing Home Sales ..... a circle-jerk economic indicator.
circle jerks..when the shit hits the fan...quite apt!
Get out your barf bags, the next two years are going to be sickening on many levels.
Ughhhhhhh.....
it would funny if gold spiked another 40 bucks and while i was watch cspan he held his ear for an incoming call from the PPT. heh.
"Excuse me.... I need to take this....."
Its all lies, bullshit and propoganda.
Utterly impossible to take any "market" seriously.
Looks manipulated to the downside to me!
Remember, when gold is down 10 bucks, you hear all the gold bugs cry "manipulation! Wahhh!!!"
When it's up 10 bucks in two minutes, it's obviously just performing normally.
Which one is it?
Personally, I believe that ALL markets happen to move downward sometimes. This is not a view that is shared by the "holy cow, the sky is falling!" crowd.
My belief, Johnny, is that the gold market is a relatively thin market. Because of this, in moments of thin bids or offers, either direction can be quickly overwhelmed causing sharp moves. You saw it on the upside a few minutes ago.
Where the manipulation comes in, IMHO, is when JPM recognizes that there is a temporary shortage of bids, at which time they purposely overwhelm them and drive it sharply lower, thereby painting the tape (chart). Can major players do the same thing to the "offer" side? Of course. But some hedge fund long has nowhere near the power to manipulate on a regular basis that JPM has.
ps If you're wondering, I'm not the one who junked you.
by Johnny Bravo
on Thu, 07/22/2010 - 08:20
#483359
"On the daily chart, it looks like the STO is about to pop to the upside. Looks like we might get a relief rally soon in the price of gold."
Called it! :)
Anyway, I think that moves to the downside are always sharper, because people are always trying to be the first to sell.
I think that the first move to the upside is always sharp because people want to try to be the first to buy at the latest sign of a changing trend.
After that though, moves to the upside are always slower because of psychology. If you're waiting to go long, many times you will wait and see what happens, where somebody that is already long will often liquidate quickly based on emotion. That's my two cents about the speed of market moves...
I don't think that it's manipulation that moves it quickly to the downside. Buying dries up, and then somebody sells. All the people on the fence then try to be the first to get out. It happens. Everybody wants to be the first one out....
Moves sharply to the downside is simply PAPER traders.(they grab$10.00-$12.00, off the spiking, and make double fistfuls......)
That is soon coming to an end on Slvr.........Contract sizes are going to be limited to 1500.........watch Slver rocket.
Get rid of the ETF, non physicals, and stop the JERKOFF Up's and Downs.........
Make them hold 1:1, and watch the price.............
JPM, GS, would get slaughtered.....................
And the Gold Bitchezz, would be the new millionaires in a short time.
I did. Another day, same crap. Just pollution.
Mscreant excelling!
You can only hold a beach ball under water for so long.
And when released, what happens?
Exactly!
I believe that the best way to time this is stochastics!
However, what happens after the initial beach ball skyrocketing? It often levels out. This also happens in bull markets.
In bear markets, it's ..... SPLAT! LOL. Then you get the dead cat bounces....
JB you remind me of when i was i kid and i had my first wank where cum came out...i didnt quite know what it was, all i knew was that it looked good and that i felt i needed to tell someone.
;-)
If you're going to claim that a beach ball being held underwater is not in a natural state but rather it is being manipulated by the holder then you should also believe that when the beach ball slips from the holder's hands and rockets into the air it is actually being lifted aloft by the person who is trying to hold it down. Or so says Johnny Bravo.
Excellent analogy, Pladizow.
And of course, there's no real proof that it's being "held" down, except that it falls like a rock when it falls.
Wow, so it has the same price action as every other stock, currency, and commodity?
Sounds like proof of manipulation to me...
Compare the outstanding short selling to available stock. In any other market folks would be screaming manipulation. Who knows when it will be, but when the short squeeze hits gold will go to the moon -- of course it won't stay there.
And of course, there's no real proof that it's being "held" down...
That has nothing to do with my point. You have claimed that those who DO believe that the gold price is manipulated to the downside should also consider price increases to be manipulation.
My post addresses that fallacious argument and not your unwillingness to confirm manipulation in the gold market.
The POG reminds me of the Gulf Geyser. They keep trying to cap it, but it has LOTS of upward pressure. Eventually, I think both will explode.
I'm pretty sure the gist of this article/missive from ZH was that the gold markets are not performing in a normal manner.
Jesus, dude...
That said, you have every right to be bearish on gold. I just don't see it going down to your level and staying there...not physical metal, at least.
performing normally
who said that?
junk
The "market" also conveniently failed to notice that the June inventory of unsold homes now stands at 8.9 months supply, up from 8.3 in May
The market didn't fail to notice it.
But when the spoos are ramped at 2 am, at the market open and again in the minutes before 10 am (and for the next few minutes) the herd either jumps on the wagon or is left behind. People really don't understand how much from moment to moment herd behaviour dynamics are in play.
This is why it's much easier to game the market than most think, particularly when you've got unlimited printed money and a National Security order authorizing any behaviour you wish to employ to move the markets.
If the gold price ever finds its true level the big winners will be Asians, where the level of gold ownership is widespread.
How 'bout just gold and silver owners in general. A small percentage of Americans (<1%?) owned a fair bit as well.
Cookie,
You'll be surprised how fast it is being leached out from the poor man here in India.
Loan against Gold is one of the more common adverts in the papers and the rates offered are awesome. From pawn shops to large banks and everyone in between has a Loan against Gold scheme.
And with the BUY BUY BUY propaganda press in 24X7 overdrive, people want to buy. The malls are flooded as people replace their real wealth with white goods.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Fascinating and depressing, like the US bankers pushed the home equity loans here for years.
In Centreal America the bankers have been pushing credit cards for several years now on economies that were largely cash based... and guess why? ... because local banks have been bought out/taken over largely by US banking establishments.
One thing people conveniently ignore is that the London price fix is intended for bullion leases. Bullion leases are the only piece of paper that is fixed to the price of gold every day. I believe that much of the price fixing regime comes out of this tradition, which is left over from days when the gold price was actually a fixed sum, but has morphed into something much different.
Bernanke is spot on when saying that a gold standard or a price fix in gold is a mistake.
Bill Miller, the famed fund manager at Legg Mason
[LM 28.85 1.22 (+4.42%) ]
who beat the S&P for 15 consecutive years, says US large cap stocks are trading at bargain prices, offering investors a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
The last time they were this cheap relative to bonds was in 1951. What do you think? Is it time to buy large caps at full throttle?
Share your opinion:
Do you think large cap stocks are offering a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity? Yes, large caps are cheap and worth buying No, too much uncertainty still lingers
Vote to see results Have more to say? Share your comments below.
Do you think large cap stocks are offering a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity? * 283 responses Yes, large caps are cheap and worth buying
50% No, too much uncertainty still lingers
50% Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding. Have more to say? Share your comments below.
As long as it is AAPL.
Buy large craps? I just try to keep from stepping in them.
What's weird is if the economy would undistort itself everything would be large cap. As it is we live in a medium cap world a small cap world and a HFT pumped large cap world that worth less than the small cap world. Because Apple, Microsoft, Intel are all shit holes of debt.
Yet they are still in the crapper...much easier to wipe your ass with fiat currency than gold...
But gold is shiny, smoother, cooler, and it's easier to wash than fiat currency.
Plus, you can hold it in your hand! GOLD bitchez!!!
I think that we see 54000 any day now. LOL
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-proof-gold-price-suppression
You definitely have a point there...gold is reusable!
it couldn't have something to do with this can it??
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2010/jul/17/malaysia-gold...
Lots of fake gold coins out there, besides many gold certificates have not gold behind them. What to do? Diamonds can't be forged that easy, can be probed with an expert eye, gold needs chemical testing. Go for diamonds!
Ever try to resell a diamond? You get much less than what you paid for it. Go for the Gold!!!
The Fed receives instructions on Gold manipulation and price suppression be De Beers, who has done the opposite with the price of diamonds for decades. From the brilliant "Diamonds are a girl's best friend" and "2 times your monthly salary for a diamond" marketing campaigns to blatant purchasing and then withdrawal of raw diamonds from the market place in order to artificially maintain the price of so-called" scarce diamonds, De Beers has manipulated and cornered the diamond market just like the central banks have done the same with fiat currency.
Nice commentary. That would explain my intuitive distrust of the "double d's".
De Beers Diamonds.
This whole world is a fraud. Very discouraging.
Those who are dependant upon the Matrix (Ponzi) will fight to remain within the Matrix. The good news? The Matrix is an epic fail and is coming down around us. I've begun to transition from how do we survive the collapse to how do we build a new world.
CD,
You have stated the same question everyone here should be asking......
"I've begun to transition from how do we survive the collapse to how do we build a new world."
The same POWER Brokers will be the uber wealthy, and WE serf's, will be catfish bait.
My concern, is HOW do we survive EPIC FAIL?, with the Powers that be, left unscathed, we will be in deep CACA.
Rebuilding would be a far better way....if we knew WHAT is going to be in charge after, EF 1.0.
I think Gordon G, nailed it, if your wealthy enough, haul ass...........now.
Every day new PoPo State Rules, and Laws are being established.........
Now, you cannot videoptape an Officer, without facing a stiff fine, and maybe an Extended term in Sing Sing..............(reason?, officer wasn't TOLD he was being taped).
Felony..............he may get up to 16yrs.( he was not a minority, so that's why he's dead meat).Sad fact of this NEW life.
The dude was speeding on a motorcycle, and the PoPo,cut him off in traffic, and pulled his weapon on the dude.
For NO reason.
DeBeers is to Diamonds, what JPM is to Silver.
Palladium bitchez!!!
if the market nose dives again, so will your palladium.
Yeah but dude, every time you buy a diamond, a puppy in Africa dies.
oppression is funny isn't it? lets just invade all their countries and take their resources. oh i forgot, that is the wall street plan for world peace.
Why? When you can just make diamonds that are just as good or better than the "real" thing, at a fraction of the cost.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_diamond
try selling them without taking a serious haircut.
diamonds are for sophisticated buyers only. your advice benefits those who wish to unload on unsophisticated buyers.
Gold is riding the same waves as just about every asset class. Gold is a small market and will have huge spikes in both directions.
I'm getting a "PROFIT WITH CRAMER" ad on the ZH site - wow.
That and the book value of gold remains slightly below $50/ounce. Might cause some problems if any real accounting is done.
Book value doesn't mean anything though. It's just an accounting entry.
Tangible book value is more accurate because of the way it's calculated, and is the true value of an asset at liquidation.
Book value is just the value of something in terms of shares issued, etc. It really has no bearing whatsoever on an asset.
The books don't balance and never have and never will. I actually thought it sat as a book entry of $46 something on the US's books. Irrelevant really.
This is all well and good but I am far more disturbed by the nonsense in equities.
All the turds are floating on the same ocean.
no pun intended?
I am Turd Ferguson.
I am Tyler Durden.
It isn't just gold. Oil went ballistic (again), as did Corn, Wheat, and Hogs.
Simply Silver Bitchez!
well i think this is to be expected. all commodities rose today. gold is behaving like one. it actually is one last time i checked. i think gold does better in deflationary situations then silver or other commodities, but when everybody is selling, they sell their gold too. it goes down for a bit then recovers.
there are only a few things that are moving inversely to or against the general market at the moment that i can tell. treasuries, japanese yen, and sometimes the dollar and obviously inverse etfs.
if you think the market is going to go down, you want those things temporarily. but if you think it will go up despite the economic troubles, then you want gold, stocks and other commodities so you keep your purchasing power.
the problem is...its hard to tell what is going on with the market. but like i said if you think these up days are short lived, then i guess you would be shorting and buying yen and treasuries and keeping lots of dollars.
what i have never understood too well, is the prognosis for a lower dollar as well as a collapsing market. something like this could happen if the dollar is no longer a safe haven and was happening for a bit a few weeks ago during the drop where the dollar also dropped. interesting what is going on in any case.
"Gold is money and nothing else"
JP Morgan - testimony to Congress.
I believe JP is correct. Gold is not a commodity, that is a fear argument designed to drive people away from Gold.
Gold is a commodity, and so is money.
Also, the paradigm of the monetary system has changed since 100 years ago.
That's the problem with goldbugs. They're making predictions based on conditions from 100 years ago. No wonder they couldn't trade out of a paper bag.
Goldtards think that they're "investors." That's funny shit. Holding an asset and praying because Glenn Beck told you to is not investing. It's "investing."
I have some beanie babies from 1998 to sell you and some 147 dollar a barrel oil.
Why do post this stuff? Do you have some kind of mental block with people who disagree with your position? So you don't like gold. Great. Invest in something else and leave people here be. WTF is wrong with you Johnny Douche? You need to go see a shrink...
First rule of Zero Hedge is "Don't talk to Johnny Bravo." - Ever
Amen.
8,000 tonnes.Is this 2000 tonnes real and 6000 tones of lead with a receipt for 10 tins of Gold paint.Or a locker full of paper Gold Certificates ......................
Does anyone here think ES will reverse later today? WTF is going on!?
is the cartel trying to paint a chart showing 1200 is the new resistance? THey let it go to 1200 and the BAM!
1200 is resistance, but it will hit 1220 before it breaks down.
You're welcome!
Goldbugs are stupid. They have to junk me so there's nothing refuting their insufferable tripe on this board.
Just think if I didn't post here. Every post would be "gold to 5000, no 25000, no 50000!"
Retards, all. LOL.
You should thank me for telling the truth about your failed predictions.
i wouldn't wait for 1100 to start buying (if it ever even gets there) I am going to keep buying and averaging in. We don't know when gold will shoot up. The cartel would like us to think that they can always knock it, but eventually gold will break away from the cartel chains
I guess you're right. Just like any other asset, it can only go up in a straight line.
I'd start buying right now, and then back up the truck at 1220.
LOL. You people deserve to lose your money.
Nadler, you told people not to buy gold when it was 680, what credibility do you have?
Thanks papo
Gold, or present governments. Choose.
The downtrend in the SPX has been broken this morning....I suspect the market will firm up into August....Possibly to SPX 1145 or so....
SP now going to 1900 right?
Silver, snitches!
I love it when you purr! Good kitty. Lemme scratch behind those ears for you.
fucking ya - we all saw that coming,
I mean reaaaallllllyyyyyy!
or
my gld trade really did corner the market in virtual toilet paper splendium
Shit. BUt all the volume happened in the AM. I would think a sell off at the end of the day would drive ES down before and after the market closes.