Gold And Silver Likely To Go Parabolic Due To ‘Global Shockwaves’ If U.S. Defaults

Tyler Durden's picture

From Gold Core

Gold and Silver Likely to Go Parabolic Due to ‘Global Shockwaves’ if U.S. Defaults

Gold is some 0.5% lower against the U.S. dollar and most currencies today but is higher in Australian dollars as the Aussie fell on Australian and global economic growth concerns. Asian equity indices were mixed as are European indices.


 
Bond markets have seen subdued trading but Greek bonds are again under pressure and the Greek 10 year yield has risen to 17.37% in increasingly illiquid trade.

The dawning reality that the U.S. will be downgraded due to its appalling fiscal position led to new record nominal gold and silver prices yesterday.

Denial regarding the possibility of a U.S. default continues with some analysts denying that such an event is “possible”.

Such an event is possible and it grows more likely by the day.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned overnight that a default on America's debt will spark a major crisis and send shockwaves through the global economy.

"The Treasury security is viewed as the safest and most liquid security in the world, and the notion it would become suddenly unreliable and illiquid would throw shockwaves through the entire global financial system," he told a congressional committee.

U.S. CDS - ZCTO CDS EUR SR 5Y Corp

US CDS has broken out to the upside and there is the potential for sharp moves up here as was seen in the aftermath of the Lehman and global financial crisis.

The fundamentals for gold and silver could not be better as the outlook for most paper currencies and government paper (sovereign debt) is not good. The precious metals are again being seen as safe haven assets to protect from government profligacy and currency debasement.

The risks of a “depression” and currency crises in Europe and the U.S. are rising and this is contributing to significant safe haven demand.


The fact that gold and silver have no counter party risk and cannot default and cannot be debased or printed into oblivion makes them crucial diversifications.

Gold, global equities and AAA rated, short dated bonds remain the best way for investors to protect themselves from today’s growing sovereign debt and monetary risk.

Gold, silver, good equities and good bonds will be better than depreciating cash or currencies in the coming years. Real diversification will help protect preserve and grow wealth.

NEWS

Gold pauses after record-setting rally; debt fears aid
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/15/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE7592IU20110715

Gold Poised for Second Weekly Advance After Rallying to Record
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/07/14/bloomberg1376-LOCTJI0YHQ0X01 0SNO3DLKUC71NCR936FCO4714R.DTL

Gold, silver pull back in electronic trading
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-silver-pull-back-in-electronic-trading-2011-07-15?link=MW_latest_news

US default would be disastrous - Bernanke
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0714/usa-business.html

COMMENTARY
US Default Risk Jumps To Highest Since February 2010 On Debt Ceiling Worries
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-cds-jumps-highest-february-2010-debt-ceiling-worries

11 Silver Investor Mentality Shifts
http://www.businessinsider.com/11-silver-investor-mentality-shifts-2011-7

Peter Brimelow - Gold: ‘The upside is wide open’
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-the-upside-is-wide-open-2011-07-14?link=mw_story_kiosk

King World News: Capital controls, oppressive regulation likely after
collapse - Zulauf
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/7/14_Felix_Zulauf_-_Collapse_Will_Cause_Governments_to_Change_Rules.html

Charlie Fell: Silver in a Diversified Investment Portfolio - Peter Whelan
http://www.charliefell.com/index.php/articles/2/174

The World of Yesterday - Ignore Reality at Your Peril
http://www.goldstandardinstitute.net/GSI/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/TheGoldStandard7.pdf

Return of the Gold Standard as world order unravels
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8638644/Return-of-the-Gold-Standard-as-world-order-unravels.html

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doomandbloom's picture

No defaults anytime soon....of any country....all will be bailed out...

I agree this can only go on until so long...but *shrugs*

tarsubil's picture

Yeah, so the US is going to default on debts denominated in dollars which it can simply print? Meanwhile Treasury staff blurted out something a month ago assuming that the debt ceiling would rise as if inside the beltway or inside Capitol hill it is already a done deal despite all the theatrics. I'm sorry, my spidey sense detected the assault on PMs and it is dead right now. This is all just a bunch of f**s***.

centerline's picture

I have been anticipating an epic beat down in PMs.  Likely will be the last chance to get on board at prices in that range though.

Regardless of the theatrics going on in Washington, the debt ceiling will be raised... one way or the other.  If not by congress, then by Presidential order.

The FED will do QE3 because the economy will falter.  Why?  Because the economy never recovered... GDP was bouyed only by previous QE.  When the FED does QE3 (or OpTwist), it will be by clear direction of the politicians - unable to solve the problems at hand because the problems are not solveable within the context of the current system.  Hence, the irony in all of the theatrics.

Are you kidding's picture

Agree...why would anyone junk you?  Maybe no PM beat down...but the rest, I agree completely.

centerline's picture

Maybe not.  Got to be prepared for that too.  Pure speculation on my part of course - nothing moves perfectly in a straight line.  BUT, history does have some cool parabolic moves that we should be mindful of!  LOL.

VegasRage's picture

What a place to be though, if they print, it's bad, if they don't print it's bad. No matter how you slice it, gold and silver are good to own because les face it fiat currency is is dire straights. I don't think there is whole lot more ammo out there to beat down metals, hell, they raised margin requirements 5 times in 8 days to prevent silver from going parabolic only a few months ago and yet here we are again climbing back up the same hill at a furious rate. They can't keep gold and silver down. The last time PM's took off was when the Hunt brothers we're at it, only about 10% of the world could buy PM's then, today about 90% can. Bubble what bubble?

centerline's picture

The moves in PMs represent the moves towards the fiat exits.  The moves need to be careful because they cant afford a rush for the exits... it spooks the herd.  Likewise, time is needed for those who know what is going on to reposition (find the next greater fool).  Therefore, everything will be done to keep PMs from making big moves.  In fact, a good clobbering might shake out weak speculative hands - and a good bout of deflation might get some folks to cough up physical to make ends meet or cover other positions.  Again - just speculation on my part here.

VegasRage's picture

A good clobbering, that both silver and gold they have gotten a number of times over the last few years. But then those who hold paper metals are going to get shaken out when the reality of the fact they sell 500 x the paper to the amount of the actual metal. When these paper tools can't deliver and they default, physical metals will push higher.

Sudden Debt's picture

Agreed, and PM's will be kept at current levels untill the paper scam has 0 backing of PM's.

But now the media is advertising gold and silver more, the remaining stocks will be depleted within 2 years.

 

But it's a fact that the balloon will pop.

Today, I've read for example that it would take Greece 24 years to buy up all of their debt if Europe would keep on throwing money at it for 24 years.

Yeah...

and the list is a bit bigger then Greece...

 

CrazyCooter's picture

I am hoping for a big fat raid like they did silver not long ago. I had a lot of personal crap on my plate nipping at the paycheck and I am finally in a position to begin acquiring again. I will buy regardless, but I feel reasonably confident they can't let the bull run so the rules will get repeatedly changed and broken and price action will be pretty nasty! Just waiting it out in the gold blind for a nice rack to wander into my kill zone ...

Regards,

Cooter

Al Gorerhythm's picture

I may be fll of vodka but you ar a fucking idiot. Its an bout time you mob of fucking wombat brained cunts fucking woke up. for fiucks sake , get a bloody clue. No defaults soon. Where you been you fucking dolt. It's been default since 19fucking13 you dumb cunt. How's eazy this fucking csptcha hey? 62+ ? = 78,for fuck's sake.  It's as easy as that!  plus get a fucking clue you dick head. fuck me. Fuck you. sick of this shit.

tarsubil's picture

I wonder what would happen if you switched to whiskey.

Al Gorerhythm's picture

Fucking shit drink but I'll hang around to shoot the crap.   Fucking junkers are a mob of skulking pussies. Fuck them and the fly by horse they rode in on. Aren't you truly pissed oof about these brain dead fuckwits that haven't the faintest clue about a full faith and credit descriptors of the piece of debt ridden IOU shit script that they place their full faith and hope in. It's a disgrace to the presumption of innate human logic. had a gut full. pissed as a parrot, I know but that's where it rests with me,  

MsCreant's picture

Very early to be this drunk unless you are not in the US. One thing I am realizing about my "pissed-off-ta-tude" is that there is a part of me that is angry and hurt that I was even sold the idea of "rules" "fair market" and "capitalism" and that I bought into it. I am a woman scorned because I idealistically believed this shit when it was never true. Now that I know what has been true THROUGH HISTORY (never mind learning that the US has not paid down debt, at all, since 1960) I must ask "Who do I blame for this?" The delusional folks who sold me the fairy tale? They were duped too. The criminals? Well hell, they just naturally do what they do and have done through history. 

It takes as long as it takes to figure it out. We can be sick of it, but it has always been this way. You are (IMHO) grieving. The loss is formidable. I say this to you because I think I am going through something like this as well. I'm looking for somewhere calmer to stand, where I am not reactive, but I am not compromising either. 

Hope you have a good day and the headache isn't too bad.

Al Gorerhythm's picture

Cheers, big ears. Ms C, it took three readings but yes, we are on the same ride. Gut full. How the fuck am I finishing a huge one but still log on to Zh? Fucking rrealy gone tonight.

gmrpeabody's picture

I can see the "realization" for you is fairly recent. Most here went thru this, some still dealing with it. Myself, just getting over the denial after the realization. Too funny. At least people are finally getting pissed. ;-)

Monday1929's picture

Ben, is that you? Calm down, it will be o.k.

Well, maybe not, but come back to bed, dear.

Al Gorerhythm's picture

MMmmmm . You've got a nice arse luv. Don't mind if I do.

smore's picture

Not as nice as mine.  I suggest you schedule a session with Dr. Dissonance when you are feeling better.

Al Gorerhythm's picture

When your moon hits my eye

Like a big pizza pie

That's smore.

Boxed Merlot's picture

The loss is formidable...looking for somewhere calmer to stand...not reactive...not compromising either.

 

Putting old wine in new wineskins may well describe the formidable loss you speak of.  As my avatar would suggest, new wine requires new wineskins to prevent loss. 

 

It’s not by chance the term debt is equivalent to the word sin in the original language. I suspect when the world’s economic doctors and professors finally arrive at the end of the road, they’ll find the theologian at the inner sanctum.

There is a 5 step process to debt forgiveness as described by these adherents.

1. Repentance.
2. Remission.
3. Restitution.
4. Reconciliation.
5. Restoration.

It may come as a shock to some, but most theology is economic based and very practical in its application. The “5 Rs” for starting over may sound “religious” but are actually quite ordinary activities and easy to understand. Their opposites are equally easy to identify.

1. Quit borrowing vs. continue to borrow.
2. Divine discharge vs. continued guilt.
3. Thankful vs. envy.
4. Purpose for living vs. marking time before death.
5. Restoration. Speaks for itself.

 

The "divine discharge" is typically the crux of the matter.  "Who is this that has the authority to forgive debt but the divine?"  An equally important question is actually the opposite, who is this that has the power to conjure debt?  Which is more difficult, to indenture a person or to discharge the debt?  The entire concept is based in the ethreal.

imho.

Disclosure: Long RZIM, Ligonier, MLJ Trust

tarsubil's picture

I don't think it is that bad. We'll just get another painful lesson in what good money is. Sometimes you need to fall down to learn how to stand, *vomits*. Life is like a box of choco... Just kidding. Hopefully, on the otherside of this giant turd, people will know how to respond to politicians and bankers who push the idea of fiat. Wealth might take a hit, it might go backwards, but the death of fiat will ultimately be a good thing. I'm just a hell billy that loves whiskey myself. PFF, brah.

downrodeo's picture

Fuck them and the fly by horse they rode in on.

 

Do not fly by horse. It does not work. (I've never tried but I've studied physics, a horse has very limited ability to create the necessary lift force to get you off the ground. A Pegasus however, that is a different story...good luck finding one though.)

Take heart my friend; we're against it with you!

CrazyCooter's picture

Oh, Corb Lund time!

Time to switch to whiskey!

And the most military history references in a single song I have ever heard (and it will get your blood going!)

Horse Soldier! Horse Soldier! <--- listen for 10 seconds

Regards,

Cooter

P.S. I must confess when I post on ZH after drinking I tend to get a bit off the wall myself ...

 

Al Gorerhythm's picture

I can't believe you took the time. Thanks mate. Sorry to the poor unsuspecting sod above. My shout if we meet. But fuck it, I'm pissed (in a cross-cultural sense) for the first time in a long time.

Ahmeexnal's picture

Don't get mad, get even.

Hmmm...anyone drunk listening to that "Horse Soldier" would most likely understand drunk-warped lyrics as "I'm a whore..." instead of "I'm a horse..."

cheaper booze to calm/dumb down the sheeple is in the works.

GoinFawr's picture

It's ok Ahm, Corb Lund is Canuckian. The drunker that lot stay, the better for the rest of us.

To be quite honest, I didn't find it to be half bad. Sounds like he's seen Killam, mb played a gig or two in Leduc, and Camrose; why, I've got money on my flank that says CL lanced clear through Boyle while gnawing on a giant sausage made in Mundare, with the Smalls.

tarsubil's picture

Those are some quality links. Thanks.

MsCreant's picture

These were great, sent them to my hubby.

centerline's picture

LOL... you are correct of course.  It has been a slow, ongoing default.  Over 100 times now since the debt ceiling was first increased (1917 I think?).  Anyhow, I think what the poster was saying is that no country will be allowed to default until the system has gone parabolic.  In theory, someone will be the "first" to go - but the house of cards will come down in such rapid succession that it wont matter anyhow.  Rather than dealing with an orderly default, we are locked into building more and more "financial potential energy" in the system to virtually guarantee an economic atomic blast.  Have your goggles near by at all times of course.

centerline's picture

The keep the little bits of fiat paper out of your eyes as the shockwave passes over.  Plus, they probably would annoy other people... simply an added bonus for asshole points.

mick_richfield's picture

For me the timeline is more like this:

1913: reconquest of US by Crypto British Empire & Money Power

1933: US semi-default internal -- loss of gold backing, but silver remains.

1964: US full default internal -- loss of silver backing.

1971: US full default external -- loss of gold backing internationally.

1973: beginning of US Imperium -- dollar backed by mideast oil, backed by US military.

2011: Collapse - US Fifth Fleet defeated in Arabian Sea.

Oh wait -- crap.  I wasn't supposed to say that last line yet.  Just kidding. :-)

Now, where's that vodka ?

Al Gorerhythm's picture

You say potato.

I say your shout.

Down to miserable Barcarrdi. oops. must be the pirate in me.

tarsubil's picture

I'd like to print this out and frame it in my office.

trav7777's picture

who the hell is going to defeat the Fifth Fleet?

centerline's picture

JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.

A Nanny Moose's picture

OBL. Is selling aircraft carriers to raise funds considered defeat?

akak's picture

who the hell is going to defeat the Fifth Fleet?

Financially unsustainable imperial overreach.

Al Gorerhythm's picture

Holy Bloody Mary, I tied one on last night! First time in two years and look what it does for you. My humblest apologies to you DoomandBloom. Man, you got a drunken mouthful from me for some unknown reason.

Kids, don't drink and let your mouth drive. It brings out the blue ribbon dick head in you. Sorry all. (Must have been that last orange whip).

doesmybuttlookfatinthis's picture

I understand that dollars will now be printed on a roll instead of a sheet. This will allow us to conviently count and tear of as many dollars as needed. And it will serve two purposes, spending and wiping. What will they think of next?

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Perhaps they'll be printed on soft, absorbent, two-ply paper.

 

agent default's picture

True, even as toilet paper the dollar leaves a lot to be desired.

mickeyman's picture

Unfortunately you will be forced to use $1000 bills for this function. You won't be able to use anything smaller because coins are too difficult to use for this purpose.

Long-John-Silver's picture

I keep wondering when $500 and $1,000 bills will be printed for general circulation. $100 bills go fast when you stop for gas, milk, and bread on the way home from work (if you still  have a job).