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Is Gold Back "In Play" - An Update From FMX Connect

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From FMX Connect

Summary

June
Gold settled at $1495.80 per troy ounce, a gain of $15.80 for the day. 
Calls were bid on the back of an overnight rally and a size buyer of the
December 1600 Call.

Options Commentary:

The
market was called to open $13 higher today, entering back into the meat
of the trading range for the last two weeks. One would think that this
retracement of a down move would be accompanied by a retracement of the
volatility but we’ve come to learn from this market that skew and its
implications are more volatile than volatility itself. Volatility should
have been lower today. Calls should have been slammed today. Having
attained break-even for the day, one wouldn’t expect back-month options
to be of interest when the gamma lies with the shorter-dated months. If
you thought any of those things you would be wrong. Here’s what
happened: The market opened at 1493 and a buyer of the June 1500 Call
came in, purchasing approximately 1000 lots. The market absorbed the
balance as there is plenty of two-way business at the strike.
Subsequently, a buyer surfaced in the December 1600 Call. The MO of the
buyer was very similar to the MO of the August 1600 Call buyer we saw
two months ago. As a quick review, between 10,000 and 15,000 August 1600
Calls were bought over the course of roughly a week and afterwards the
market went to 1570. Today, 4,000 of the December 1600 Calls traded and
it was this option that single-handedly changed the term structure of
volatility. By the end of the day the front months were down, the back
months were up and October served as the fulcrum (see chart below).

Who
is this buyer? We don’t know. Its most likely a fund or a dealing bank
executing an order for a fund. We can’t tell you the market is
definitely going to go higher from here but we can tell you that if it
does volatility will firm up.

Directional Analysis

Directional analysis via options can be summed up very briefly. The options say don’t be short the market.

Technical
analysis: We ventured back into the range we discussed before. We’re
fairly neutral between here and 1520. We’d be tempted to get long above
1500 because of the psychological significance. There is nothing
technically that bolsters the options case except maybe that yesterday’s
sell-off stopped just above the 50-day Moving Average. It’s possible
the downside momentum is closed off; we just don’t see the upside yet.

image

 

Active Options

M 1500 C

V 1500 Straddle

Z 1600 C

 

ATM Volatility Curve:

image

As of 4:00 P.M.

 

Volatility Smile:

image

***From NYMEX Settlement

End of Day Straddles

GC      
  Future Bid Offer
M11 1495 25 29
N11 1495 60 64
Q11 1495 82 86
V11 1500 124 128
Z11 1500 160 164
G12 1500 193 197
J12 1500 220 224
M12 1505 246 250

As of 4:00 P.M. 

 

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Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:29 | 1288951 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I apologize again for the spam but this is really important.

Keep and re-read for the next 90 days:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/its-finally-over-now-what.html

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:35 | 1288972 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Turd...I have seen "spam" and you are not it.

Follow you often...Thanks and keep up the great work!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:38 | 1288983 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

 

 

Me too, the sheeple should read the older post before the crash, Gulp

 


WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27, 2011
Your Fearless Leader No, not The Bernank. The Turd!

Let's go back over the last four weeks chronologically.

1) In early April, the Turd gives you $45 as a price target by May silver option expiry.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/others-to-watch.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/greed-vs-fear.html

2) Then, last week, I began to warn you to be careful and to watch for the brief, sharp correction that was coming.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/something-to-consider.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/easter-sunday-evening.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/be-cautious.html
The Wicked Witch even chimed in and tried to warn you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhcFI-vzNXk

3) Then, yesterday, when almost everyone in the media was trying to convince you to sell, The Turd stood alone and tried to reassure you.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/not-for-faint-hearted.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/fastest-10-ever.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/tricky-tuesday.html

So now here we are. Back to 1527 and 47.60. Feels good, doesn't it?
If you read all the posts above, then you know by now that we should expect this rally to carry us through next week. Silver will test, and likely best, $50. It may even see $52. Gold, now that it is through 1520, will accelerate toward $1550.
Beginning the week of the 9th, pattern suggests that we should see about a two-week downward consolidation. After that is completed, the table will be set for the wonderful and record-setting opportunity that will be presented to us in June.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:15 | 1289110 JohnG
Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:22 | 1289343 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Okay, that's the funniest fucking thing I've ever seen. 

@Spalding:  You're fucked, Dude.  Nobody's ever going to be able to take anything you ever say seriously again.  Sometimes a nickname just sticks, and this one's gonna.

Trolololololololololo Bitchez!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:56 | 1289496 Lieutenant Dan
Lieutenant Dan's picture

Spalding,

Being a virgin sitting around in their mother's basement trolling on the zerohedge comments section is just not a life that anyone really wants to live. Please do yourself a favor and go get laid. Who knows, maybe after you get some, you will have an epiphany and actually contribute something worthwile in the future.

Best of luck,

Lieutenant Dan

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 21:23 | 1289826 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Spalding has had a long slow slide into Trolldom.  He wasn't always that way, he is just Rootin Tootin American, and very bullish.  Earlier posts, while they sometimes seemed like an attempt to thread hijack because of the sheer volume of cut-n-pasting, had relevant information, and provided what I thought to be a valid contrarian (at least in ZH general concensus) opinion.

Spalding however, tended to get D's in "Works and Plays well with Others".  As with the argument over the "chcken or the egg", attacks by and against Spalding escalated until there was very little civilized discourse left.

Though I seldom agreed with Trolololololololo, we had several decent arguments, and I respected his opinion, never thinking of him as a troll in the true sense.  But now, he seems to have appointed himself as a TurdTroll, and seldom pops except to bash PM's. 

HEY SPALDING!!!: http://trololololololololololo.com/

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:34 | 1289402 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

ok that is pretty funny to watch.  What is it?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 21:37 | 1289894 akak
akak's picture

I am not sure, but I like to think of him as "The Singing AntiChrist".

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 00:34 | 1290369 CD
CD's picture

That is indeed a disconcerting video, the gentleman's face just rubs the nerves the wrong way for me. I wonder if we can institute this as the new Rick Roll for ZH, especially for ZH trolls...

At times I wonder if Spaulding is really a reader, or simply a very highly developed Turing test for us mere humans. I rarely see the username post ANYthing not cut & pasted.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 00:58 | 1290256 Monedas
Monedas's picture

I hope you people aren't making fun of Andres Calamaro ! He´s not a Socialist ! Anyone that happy can not in fact be a Socialist ! Monedas 2011 He brings out my Continental, sophisticated, romantic, bon vivant side ! I'd like to see Steve Martin lip sync Trololo wearing that Bavarian hat with the pheasant feather he wore in The Jerk ! Ooooops ! His name is Eduard Khil and he's a Russian singer from the 60's ! The song had words, happy words, so happy the Communist censors deleted them !.....The 1966 song titled "I am so happy to finally be back home !" by Arkadi Ostrovski was the story of an American cowboy who happily returns to his Kentucky home to find his wife knitting him wool socks ! That had to be censored ?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:53 | 1289022 rumblefish
rumblefish's picture

what tard junked turd?

 

hey turd, when you are buying your metals options you discuss on your site, are you buyint them on GLD and SLV or is something else I'm missing entirely?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:56 | 1289052 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I junked them all.. fuck wad.. fucking leeches.. 1st fucking post is fucking advertising for someone who cant get clicks without fucking coat tail riding zero hedge.. and how many names do you have now that you talk to yourself with Turd?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:18 | 1289117 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Yet strangely, other much more aggressive spammers do not seem to get the same treatment.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:44 | 1289212 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I have cussed them all.. its just Turds turn.. I read his stuff, I even like his stuff.. but God Damn! fucking let the FX guys breath a lil bit! they have been here how long? and I brought them here.. so its personal.. no I am not paid anything to say that.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:07 | 1289286 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Actually, there in this thread and multiple other recent threads, is a spampost, by someone who has forever done almost nothing else than do spamposts, in nearly every thread. And that post - just like in other recent threads - has only been junked by me.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:26 | 1289589 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

is it the Indian with the dot on his head? not the feather kind. that fucking douche'?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:33 | 1289601 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Silberblick. Check his track - doing almost nothing else than spamming every thread with links to his site. The other two who are nothing else than spam accounts (though, not active in this thread): icm63, hedgefundlive

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 22:16 | 1290016 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Tyler allows them.. I mean I complain.. but I just play here.. and promote the place based on the quality of people.. and arguments / discussions!

 

so, my selfish.. whinney, pms motivated.. bitch in a public chat room.. LMFAO! wanna be nazi, Troll Censor move is.. to bitch about people who post 1st to promote themselves on another guys site!

 

I understand I am wrong! but I am going to do it any way! I understand Imake myself look like a kook! but I am gonna sing about it any way! LMFAO!!

 

Sorry Rynak to bother you with my selfish censorship crusade!

 

Silverblick I have not seen to much? I will go back.. I take that back, as I am typing this... I have seen him.. but isnt he like normaly down the page or second page? forgive me if I am wrong and I will make a note to check on him now... for my own selfish, pms, nazi, censorship push!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 22:34 | 1290028 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Usually posting on first page, but typically not first post. Certainly higher spampost-count though. As i said, check his/her track instead of takin my word for it.

I have no problems with people sometimes posting a relevant link to their blog. I just have a problem with people who are almost exclusively here to promote their site. And in the case of silberblick, he/she doesn't even care about topic relevance, but just posts a link to the newest blogarticle on almost every ZH thread.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:38 | 1289409 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I agree.  Stealing Durden's vibes.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:02 | 1289042 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Got Communism .... ?

Turd Ferguson said...

Tony: Don't you dare call my blog a wasteland. If you don't like it, go away and don't come back.

 

 

 

Ooops eeee ...
swattsup said...

Help - 
A short time ago Mr. Turd posted some gold miners (5 I think) he suggested we look at. I've lost track of them and would appreciate it if someone could supply the date/link.

Many Thanks.

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:02 | 1289075 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I see you have found a new target for your butthurt.

Don't you have some t-shirts to deliver or something?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:16 | 1289104 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Hey look Captain T. " silver will never fall below $35 again " Mosley Abdula' Koresh .... Nice call before a 35-40% drop

Go rotate the potatoes in the bunker™ or get mommy some flour

 

http://blogs.browardpalmbeach.com/pulp/bunker.jpg

 

 


"The retreat in housing-market activity that's now under way amounts to a simmering-down process...rather than a classic cyclical contraction that could spiral down for some time."


- David Seiders, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders, Jan 2006

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:23 | 1289350 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

http://trololololololololololo.com/

 

AHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAhaha.  Fuck me, that's funny.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:20 | 1289124 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Fucking Lol

 


Silver History • 

1900 - $0.80

1910 - $0.70

1920 - $1.70

1930 - $0.50

1940 - $0.42

1950 - $0.90

1960 - $1.00

1970 - $2.00

1980 - $48.00 ( Two months later below $10.00 )

1990 - $6.00

2000 - $5.00

2003 - $5.00

2006 - $8.50

2009 - $12.00

2010 - $18.00

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:43 | 1289196 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Where ya been lately? You have plenty of new company around here. You'll be absolutely thrilled with some of these newbie trolls. 

Silver at $35 and up 85% YOY. Looking good by my count. You missed that part? And look at poor gold, only $1500 now. Ouch.

LOL.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:50 | 1289227 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Really busy ... 

 

You will see a small bounce before another 35% - 45% pimp slap ....

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:16 | 1289319 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Okay, you've made your predictions. I don't know your time frame on this but here they are.

Gold @ $1500 -35%=$975, -45%=825

Silver @ $35 -35%=$23, -45%=$19

So there you have it. Gold between $825-975 and silver $19-23. Let's all keep up with Spaldings calls going forward. 

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:26 | 1289355 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Sorry Spalding.  Gotta disagree this time.  With the real rates as low as they are and the Fed still pushing on the pedal with the short end I see gold staying about where it is, maybe a small drop of ten to 15 percent.  Silver on the other hand may definitely drop, but it is either in consolidation or distribution and hell if I know which.  I lean toward distribution, but in a mania the psychos rule.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:44 | 1289432 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

When QE3 does not happen ( As I said over the last 4 months ) and the rate hike jawboning starts it's all over ...

 

The doom trade is over ....

 

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 23:05 | 1290175 trav7777
trav7777's picture

who is going to cover the federal deficit if the Fed isn't buying?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 23:52 | 1290302 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

help me understand pls.

If QE3 does not happen, will interest rates not increase?

From my understanding, each 1% increase in interest rates adds something on the order of $350 billion to the interest cost.

so if the 10 year goes to about 5.5%, that's a 2% increase (roughly), so the government, with a $1.6 trillion projected deficit this year, would have a $2.3 trillion deficit next year.

I know unlimited deficit spending is  a Good Thingtm, as Greece has proven, so are you saying that higher interest rates will improve the 'full faith and credit' of the US government that backs the US $ (via US Treasuries monetised)? And again, Greece (and Portugal) have proven how double digit interest rates strengthen the currency? (well i guess the Euro is getting to 1.50$).

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:27 | 1289356 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

And I'll still be in the green.  Fuck me, I'm scared.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 21:25 | 1289850 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Aw your feelings are hurt because Turd blacklisted you from his site. LOL

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:59 | 1289053 bruinjoe93
bruinjoe93's picture

Some banker junked Turd!

 

Keep up the good work Mr. Turd.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:57 | 1289056 JustanEmotion
JustanEmotion's picture

If this is spam, keep it coming :D

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:55 | 1289253 HeliBen
HeliBen's picture

I respectfully disagree Turd, major corrections (over 15% for silver) do not end in two weeks. The current trendline is smashed, the main trendline is around 23, will get there in the next year or so, hopefully in the next month or two. Just my opinion.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:01 | 1289510 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

I had a memory flash when i saw your handle. Are you the same heliben from the land of mish?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:08 | 1289529 HeliBen
HeliBen's picture

Yep, I am. Though I stopped going to that site since that deflationary fool was such, well, a fool.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:19 | 1289582 HeliBen
HeliBen's picture

Speaking of Mishkin, I had an email exchange with him about a year and half ago asking him if he was ready to retract his deflation call. Nope. Vehemently NO.

Oooopsie... Though I am sure he is still spinning it some way or another. I see his comment section counts are pushing 20 a posting now, lol. Just like the old days, when only his mom and I were reading his blog!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 22:05 | 1289985 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Mish used to get 150-200 comments a thread. I went there last night and saw 12-15.

Most of the posters I liked like Black Swan, Many Arrows and Tin Hat are long gone now. Very few Goldbugs left there at all. 

True, most everyone there hammers anyone who questions the "deflation" theory. I've been Mish's target on many occasions. Keeps me sharp. LOL.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 00:04 | 1290319 HeliBen
HeliBen's picture

Yeah, at least that many, he was pushing 300+ at one point.

Blast from the past... I remember Black Swan and Tin Foil, do not remember Many Arrows... maybe Broken Arrows or something like that? And Drew Terry, wonder if he is alright, 2012 baby!

It was pretty fun back then.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 00:16 | 1290346 HeliBen
HeliBen's picture

Found the email from Mishku:

"

I will save this for later, when the currency craps out and the Fed successfully destroys the value of the dollar, and have you sign it with the towel.

Don't hold your breath.
1) you may suffocate in the meantime
2) If not I will change my tune

Most importantly
YOU ALREADY LOST!!!!

How many times does this have to be stated?

THE BET IS OVER.
I WON!
WE ARE IN DEFLATION.
WHAT HAPPENS NOW IS IRRELEVANT.

BTW - Schiff is a wimp. I offered to bury the hatchet on any forum of his choosing, and I even offered to tape it, letting him decide if it would air, if he would debate me on the issues. I stated that I would seek to emphasize things we agree on as opposed to our differences.

He declined.

Even more remarkable, the email discussion started from HIM not me. Yes, Schiff out of the blue a few weeks ago emailed me.

Furthermore, we have a mutual friend, Charles Goyette who likes both of us, who agreed to tape the recording.

I proposed Goyette knowing he liked Schiff. Charles Goyette agreed to contact Schiff. Schiff still declined.

I wote a few sentence recommendation for Goyette's new book coming out soon. So did Schiff.

Schiff is a total, complete wimp.

In case you want another one: CNN asked me about 6 weeks ago if I would go on the air with Schiff. I told them anytime, but Schiff would never do it.

In response, CNN said "Schiff agreed to debate anyone".
I said "Bring it on, but it won't happen".

It never happened. Schiff wimped out.
Your hero is a complete wimp.

Mish

"

 

"

Please be serious
Housing crashed
oil fell from 140 to 35
copper crashed
equities crashed
Treasury yields hit all time lows
Foreign equities fell more than US equities
Consumers threw in the towel

there has never been such a global coordinated fight against deflation in history

and most importantly

YOU NEVER SAW IT COMING

No matter what I said.
I called for all of those and clowns like you mocked me all the way.

Now you hide behind the mask of "the great inflation is coming"

I NOT you can change my tune anytime I want.
The reason is I won the bet.
You my friend are stuck predicting the future whereas I called it correctly.

In due time I will change my stance to inflation, in due time. But you are stuck in a lost bet unable to change your tune.

If you had any integrity you would simply admit you were wrong.

But the Bet is OVER.
I won.
Deflation before hyperinflation.

Get over it.
Moreover hyperinflation may be decades away IF it happens at all.

Mish
"

"

The towel is history
You lost
Mish
"

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 00:19 | 1290348 HeliBen
HeliBen's picture

I should probably go ask for a towel again, haha!

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 01:18 | 1290413 Fedophile
Fedophile's picture

I will not allow deflation.

Fri, 05/20/2011 - 20:05 | 1297043 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

I used to skip many comments over to those of Black swan etc. Good stuffs. Mish always had an arrogant approach that grew blatant. He would not address any challenging valid point, and always defensive. This probably was the reason for his short-circuited IT career.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 00:12 | 1290339 HeliBen
HeliBen's picture

And I am STILL waiting on my towel!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:09 | 1289313 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

Turd, your analysis is spot on, EXCEPT you are not factoring the end of QE into the equation.  All bets are off on the actual floor on the downside drop, however temporary it will be.   Yours, Maverick

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:27 | 1289369 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Be careful Turd,  You're leading your lemmings off the cliff.

Silver and the whole commoditites market will continue to go lower for the next few months.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:32 | 1289378 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Turd,  can we see a graph of your page hits vs the price of silver?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 21:42 | 1289909 akak
akak's picture

http://trololololololololololo.com/

 

And if you listen really closely, you can hear him singing "Only $5 to dig from the ground, trololo!"

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 22:26 | 1290051 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Dude.  If you're the one who gets the hattip on this, Holy Fuck.  It's the funniest shit I've seen in a LONG time.  Thanks for brightening an otherwise shitty day.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 02:39 | 1290489 akak
akak's picture

Well, CC, it was brought to my attention by another poster here, but I guess I did run with it --- it REALLY seems to be just about the perfect response to MethMan and some of the other trolls, though, doesn't it?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:42 | 1289427 fswalker
fswalker's picture

Turd you're an idiot. You're nothing but an ego-boosted wannabe guru simply because you've piggy-backed the gold rally and told everyone to buy on the dip. haha what a fucking genius. You got a good run on a bull market rally, along with the rest of the retail crowd, now its time for the pros to make your predictions into toast. I see that even though you're against T/A and have bashed the shit out of anyone using it, you seem to be getting pretty cocky with some 101 trend-line analysis. Im still bullish on gold myself however its choppy territory from here on my friend and your simple run up bull market theory aint gonna save you. Feel sorry for your fearless (more like mindless) followers who are now in the process of giving back a fair chunk of their gold profits to the market. 

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 02:00 | 1290468 CD
CD's picture

nothing but an ego-boosted wannabe guru

Interesting, but this 'wannabe' seems to be not only generating a blog with updates and detailed pieces several times a day, but seems to have 'deluded' several thousands of readers to show up and READ the damn thing. Would love to learn more from your experience, oh wise one -- where is YOUR site?

now its time for the pros to make your predictions into toast

Not only am I trembling in my boots, I am now DESPERATE to know what the true truth about these vile precious metals truly is. Please, please -- tell us, Master...

/Your condescending, holier-than-thou, 'pure emotionless trader who always wins even' spiel is getting real fucking old dude. Why don't you actually try to READ what Turd has written, instead of relying on hostile commenters to spoonfeed you. As many have said before -- just because you have an opinion on where things OUGHT to be does not mean that there is not a firm grasp of where things ARE. The fact that you hold no opinion or value judgement on the state of the world and its direction does not make you superhuman, it merely makes you a sociopath.

 


Thu, 05/19/2011 - 07:45 | 1290704 fswalker
fswalker's picture

Seems like ive hit a nerve with yet another Turdie. Good on you for trying to make sense of it all, hell i even applaud you for sticking up for the guy even though you seem to have the same agenda. I know my posts have been quite blunt and not merely as descriptive and in-depth as some would expect here at ZH. My so called opinion or value judgement would be worthless to you as the direction you follow so blindly differs vastly from mine.

I belive everyone on this site has a view on where things OUGHT to be rather than where they are. Without a sense of future direction, the mere fact of figuring out what has happened in the past becomes somewhat irrelevant. Especially when one intends on profiting from these future moves or simply to protect their present capital.That is the general nature of markets and its participants, we hold a biased view and express our opinions. Whether it be T/A, fundamental analysis or the fucking moon cycle it makes no difference at the end of the day. I want to preserve and grow my asset base and im sure so does everyone else visiting this site.

 

As far as the truth is concerned, why dont you make up your own mind instead of looking for a "fearless leader" to follow. Isnt that the reason you're here, to gather insighful analysis from ZH to see if it further supports your own outlook? 

You see Turds 1000's of followers are exactly that. Followers in need of direction, the pretend free thinkers with the self-belief they have broken away from the sheeple, but in reality all they've done is found another muppet to follow and seek advice from.

I dont need a site DUDE, why would i? Ive set myself free a long time ago and most definetely dont need any followers. The further i can distance myself from anyone trying to figure out my method behind the madness the better im off in the long run.

So next time you visit turds site, giving away free advice, with a donate button close by, ask youself what credentials this fool has in getting you past the next bull cycle. Bull market gurus are a dime a dozen, plenty have come and gone, having built up  a nice number of followers also. It all becomes irrelevant as when the tides turn, they all get flushed out.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:35 | 1289636 HeliBen
HeliBen's picture

Another thing you might want to pull up Turd is at least a three year chart of silver and gold against other commodities, say such as oil, nat gas, copper, etc.

That way you have a good idea how big of a mini-bubble real money is against other real commodities that real money buys.

Gold, and particularly silver, is way over priced in relationship to everything else "real". That said, it is time to buy other "real" stuff with gold and silver, hence fiat price of gold and silver will likely decline, even if fiat price of say energy stays the same.

Charts of gold and silver in fiat is smoke and mirrors, don't use them, imo. Kinda like fiat charts of the DJIA is useless, you'll know when the DJIA is really cheap when it bottoms out against real money of gold and silver.

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:31 | 1288956 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

If Gold, then Silver.

If Silver, then QE3.

If QE3, then........................

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:42 | 1288989 Fraud-Esq
Fraud-Esq's picture

economic fascism? I mean.... more of it.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:06 | 1289080 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

Zimbabwe.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:33 | 1288958 silberblick
silberblick's picture

First Dominique-Strauss Kahn, now Hugo Salinas Price fearful something will happen to him next:

http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/billionaire-hugo-salinas-...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:38 | 1288982 Fraud-Esq
Fraud-Esq's picture

Still not buying. 

He was a banker-establishment ringer in the Socialist Party, just like Obama was a ringer in the Democratic party. You have to take over the leftist parties on the rise and put bankers in charge. It's an insurance policy. Obama is paying and DSK was supposed to pay for years in France.

Now, they'll have to deal with a real Socialist. Oh my.  

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:44 | 1289001 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

There will be a QE3. Whether or not they call it that or make it public is the only question left. EVERYTHING is a state secret anymore, so they will find some defense/Fatherland...er...homeland security BS excuse for keeping it secret if needed.

The only absolute we can count on with anything they might do is: NO insider oligarchs will take a hit. So, anything and everything can happen to the public, investors, speculators and people on pensions...but the insider royalty will walk away unscathed. I'm using that basic assumption in all of my investment bets going forward. Hey, I might be wrong, but thus far in my adult life that assumption hasn't been wrong once.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:45 | 1289007 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

HI JACK the Gold Silver Thread! Hurry! before the clicks run away! Hurry!

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 02:31 | 1290485 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

JunkWad...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:51 | 1289014 DoctorGold
DoctorGold's picture

QE3? Come on, it's a given. Look at the numbers, how can anyone seriously think there will not be a QE3? The question is if 2012 will bring QE4.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:58 | 1289036 Rynak
Rynak's picture

They could first steal 401's by converting them to bonds.... but in practice, that would be less popular than another QE..... they'd need some more "guided depression" for the sheeple to take this.

edit: also, as i mentioned yesterday, i so do NOT like those vertical minicrashes in the charts. If i needed more gold right now, i certainly would be buying during one of those dips.... but betting on gold going up permanently in the midterm? Nah. Warning lights still red.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 21:13 | 1289775 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Right on Doc!

 

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:01 | 1289071 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

George Soros, now that his filings show he is out of gold probably buying calls on gold. The sheeple once again sell gold to give him a better price, then he buys.

He said gold was the biggest bubble. have we seen that yet? Not even close.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:01 | 1289491 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

He probably has a metric ton of gold stashed away somewhere too.

Kind of like the Rothschilds "leaving" the gold market a couple of years ago?

Sure they did....pass the bong.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:23 | 1289588 fmxconnect
fmxconnect's picture

Historically, Soros does not use options. Better to think alongthelines of who isstill adding to positions.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 21:09 | 1289767 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

"Historically" Soros pointed out fellow Jews for the nazis and called it the best years of his life.  Just a little info so we all know what kind of person Mr. Soros is and how much faith we should put in anything he says or does.

 

By intermal rule SDRs cannot be backed by gold at this time.

 

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:08 | 1289091 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

It's all part of the playbook of the Council on Foreign Relations,

funded by the Rockefellers.

They want to create a global banker oligarchy.

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:15 | 1289108 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

They want to create a global banker oligarchy.

Hey wake up, Rip van Winkle, it's the 21st century and they did.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:37 | 1289163 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Can't be much of a gold/silver thread if only Spaulding shows up. 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:54 | 1289249 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Give it a little time. They just got out of school and are heading home to their computers. Math Boy and his protege Zing will be double teaming all the pro gold comments.

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:16 | 1289331 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

who is zing?

Never heard of him.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:37 | 1289420 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I hardly ever miss a post.  surprised I don't remember him.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:53 | 1289476 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Quite frankly, it's getting harder to keep track of them. Some of them change names a lot but you can spot their writing styles.

TMos, Colonel, and akak sniff them out pretty quickly on PM's. CD does so on other threads as well.

Been here a year today. Really appreciate TD and his crew.

 

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 21:43 | 1289924 akak
akak's picture

And we have been glad to have you, BoP!

Too bad I missed you when I was on Big Island earlier this year --- never made it over to yours.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 22:16 | 1290015 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Thanks akak,

I am on the right mainland now in the Pacific NW. I wanted to tell you that Jon Nadler is, in fact, showing up in Vancouver, BC for the gold conference, June 5-6. Anything you want me to ask him? LOL. Seriously, I am going to FLAME that guy in public. No shit. He has no idea what awaits him after the "any questions for Jon out there?" comment. 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 22:35 | 1290082 akak
akak's picture

Holy fucking shit!

You mean the anti-gold propagandist extraordinaire is actually daring to show his vile bankster-loving face at that conference?!  I can't believe it!  But like the last several at which he was scheduled, I bet you almost any money that he is going to back out once again, as he just HAS to know the kind of outraged reception that he is going to receive!

Yes, BoP, PLEASE confront him for me, PLEASE!  I will PAY you to do so!  And please make sure to snicker and laugh throughout any presentation that he might be brave enough to give.  You can ask him if he still stands by the statements he made to BNN in late 2009, that gold is NOT in a bull market.  Also, you could ask him why he so adamantly insists that NOBODY must EVER put more than 10% of their assets into gold, despite the demonstrated higher volatility of equities over the last several years, and ask him that if one ONLY puts at the MOST 10% of their assets into gold, during a time of unprecedented threat to the US dollar and ongoing currency depreciation, in a time of near-zero interest rates, just what is one supposed to do with the remaining 90% of their assets?

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 01:09 | 1290402 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Will do my friend, count on it.

"And just one more question Jon, how the fuck do you keep your job at Kitco with such a stellar record at missing this 11 year Golden Bull run?"

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 02:40 | 1290494 akak
akak's picture

You simply MUST give us updated reports on how it goes!  I will be waiting with eager anticipation and much amusement!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:16 | 1289566 Rynak
Rynak's picture

zing aka fed supporter, The Axe, wirtschaftswunder, mogul rider, WorthlessShaftUnder, long juan silver, William the Bastard.... is hard to remember because everything he writes is so boring. I at first too had problems remembering one of his earlier nicks, because all i remembered was a wall of flames from a 12 year old.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:13 | 1289549 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Nice call BoP, they have showed up with their own brand of stupidity. 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:40 | 1289198 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

WSJ has video warning of buying Gold. 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:47 | 1289205 strannick
strannick's picture

Was Soros just played like a little beeatch?

Did TPTB insinuate that his dream of monolithic SDR-esque currency was just round the corner, and so he should dump libertarian-gold for authoritarian-fiat?

Was he told we are in the wake of a new progressive and benign elitist supra-state, where our RFID will suffice for all transactions, and the glittery archaic relic will be used to plate urinals in the public housing washrooms?

Then DSK had to go and wreck it by showing that the new would-be elite are not so much noble philospher-kings, but are more lecherous MadKing Georges.

Maybe that's Soros buying back in with the Dec. 1600 calls...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:27 | 1289595 fmxconnect
fmxconnect's picture

soros may well have been played by a bigger fund

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:16 | 1289320 Haole
Haole's picture

Disagree with your near term predictions of silver price Turd but I love what you do.  Thanks for everything and bless us all.  Thanks for finally calling Turd's Bottom II today too... ;)

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:31 | 1289374 Math Man
Math Man's picture

I am still waiting for the graph of ZH page hits vs the silver price.

It would be fun to see it for Turd's site too.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:30 | 1289385 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

would probably make an excellent contrary indicator.  Have we bottomed yet?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:29 | 1289380 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

You gold bugs should be ashamed of yourselves.

This thread has only 44 posts so far.

If I were a contrarian I might think gold and silver were bottoming considering the malaise at zero hedge.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:46 | 1289444 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

They all got blowtorched leverage kills ....

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:53 | 1289474 Hulk
Hulk's picture

We all got bored...Its been the same posts/counterposts since Au=$900 and Ag=$15...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:13 | 1289560 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Too true, Hulk. Takes me about a minute to skim the posts now. Once you see Spalding, Methman or JW, it is easiest to scroll down, stopping at posts on the left margin to see if there is anything of import. This is probably the essence of why some of the original thinkers have left the scene, as posed by CD.

There is a huge gap between glib statements and researched considerations. We don't see much of the latter lately.

The standard has devolved to slanging matches. Doesn't engender an environment for studious debate. It reminds me of my days as a high school teacher. 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:25 | 1289586 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

and which of my posts are not sourced and sited? that you are taking issue with?

or does your pussy hurt? Do you need some pamprin and a hug?

I will site your bitching above as the source of my opinion.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:22 | 1289581 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Take any other PM-thread, subtract trollposts and responseposts, and you get to not much more than 50 posts. All you're missing in this thread, is the trash (well, most of it in the case of spalding).

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 04:55 | 1290583 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

A true fan ignores any losses the home team suffers.  The pompoms only come out for winning efforts.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:32 | 1289612 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

Scratched gold maples at APMEX $25 over spot in any quanity. Thinking bout pulling the trigger on a few. 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 22:26 | 1290061 FriedEggs
FriedEggs's picture

At the end of the day, who ever holds the most gold - rules.

I didnt event the game (dont shoot the messenger) just how it seems.

But just looking at the top 12 countries with most gold ounces and they are all some of the worlds biggest players...and rulers.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/gold-precious-metals.html 

Fried(e)

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 23:48 | 1290294 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I thought we just had morons infecting our site, but when you junk Turd it just shows how depressed the IQ level has become for some lurkers. You junk someone that tells the truth as he sees it every day, right or wrong, does not even charge, and gives all something to work with, long or short. Spends hours at what he is good at and shares with us. 

No wonder this country is headed for the trash heap.

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 00:12 | 1290337 fellatio is not...
fellatio is not fattening's picture

If the mgn req. were raised on crude and rbob than watch them drop, silver/gold, etc/ mgn req. were lowered, not enough but it's a start, still holding my June 100 Crude puts as I posted 7-10 days ago when crude req, was first raised, this move to par was a dead banker bounce

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