Is Gold Back "In Play" - An Update From FMX Connect

Tyler Durden's picture

From FMX Connect


Gold settled at $1495.80 per troy ounce, a gain of $15.80 for the day. 
Calls were bid on the back of an overnight rally and a size buyer of the
December 1600 Call.

Options Commentary:

market was called to open $13 higher today, entering back into the meat
of the trading range for the last two weeks. One would think that this
retracement of a down move would be accompanied by a retracement of the
volatility but we’ve come to learn from this market that skew and its
implications are more volatile than volatility itself. Volatility should
have been lower today. Calls should have been slammed today. Having
attained break-even for the day, one wouldn’t expect back-month options
to be of interest when the gamma lies with the shorter-dated months. If
you thought any of those things you would be wrong. Here’s what
happened: The market opened at 1493 and a buyer of the June 1500 Call
came in, purchasing approximately 1000 lots. The market absorbed the
balance as there is plenty of two-way business at the strike.
Subsequently, a buyer surfaced in the December 1600 Call. The MO of the
buyer was very similar to the MO of the August 1600 Call buyer we saw
two months ago. As a quick review, between 10,000 and 15,000 August 1600
Calls were bought over the course of roughly a week and afterwards the
market went to 1570. Today, 4,000 of the December 1600 Calls traded and
it was this option that single-handedly changed the term structure of
volatility. By the end of the day the front months were down, the back
months were up and October served as the fulcrum (see chart below).

is this buyer? We don’t know. Its most likely a fund or a dealing bank
executing an order for a fund. We can’t tell you the market is
definitely going to go higher from here but we can tell you that if it
does volatility will firm up.

Directional Analysis

Directional analysis via options can be summed up very briefly. The options say don’t be short the market.

analysis: We ventured back into the range we discussed before. We’re
fairly neutral between here and 1520. We’d be tempted to get long above
1500 because of the psychological significance. There is nothing
technically that bolsters the options case except maybe that yesterday’s
sell-off stopped just above the 50-day Moving Average. It’s possible
the downside momentum is closed off; we just don’t see the upside yet.



Active Options

M 1500 C

V 1500 Straddle

Z 1600 C


ATM Volatility Curve:


As of 4:00 P.M.


Volatility Smile:


***From NYMEX Settlement

End of Day Straddles

  Future Bid Offer
M11 1495 25 29
N11 1495 60 64
Q11 1495 82 86
V11 1500 124 128
Z11 1500 160 164
G12 1500 193 197
J12 1500 220 224
M12 1505 246 250

As of 4:00 P.M. 

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Turd Ferguson's picture

I apologize again for the spam but this is really important.

Keep and re-read for the next 90 days:

Robslob's picture

Turd...I have seen "spam" and you are not it.

Follow you often...Thanks and keep up the great work!

Spalding_Smailes's picture



Me too, the sheeple should read the older post before the crash, Gulp


Your Fearless Leader No, not The Bernank. The Turd!

Let's go back over the last four weeks chronologically.

1) In early April, the Turd gives you $45 as a price target by May silver option expiry.

2) Then, last week, I began to warn you to be careful and to watch for the brief, sharp correction that was coming.
The Wicked Witch even chimed in and tried to warn you.

3) Then, yesterday, when almost everyone in the media was trying to convince you to sell, The Turd stood alone and tried to reassure you.

So now here we are. Back to 1527 and 47.60. Feels good, doesn't it?
If you read all the posts above, then you know by now that we should expect this rally to carry us through next week. Silver will test, and likely best, $50. It may even see $52. Gold, now that it is through 1520, will accelerate toward $1550.
Beginning the week of the 9th, pattern suggests that we should see about a two-week downward consolidation. After that is completed, the table will be set for the wonderful and record-setting opportunity that will be presented to us in June.

ColonelCooper's picture

Okay, that's the funniest fucking thing I've ever seen. 

@Spalding:  You're fucked, Dude.  Nobody's ever going to be able to take anything you ever say seriously again.  Sometimes a nickname just sticks, and this one's gonna.

Trolololololololololo Bitchez!

Lieutenant Dan's picture


Being a virgin sitting around in their mother's basement trolling on the zerohedge comments section is just not a life that anyone really wants to live. Please do yourself a favor and go get laid. Who knows, maybe after you get some, you will have an epiphany and actually contribute something worthwile in the future.

Best of luck,

Lieutenant Dan

ColonelCooper's picture

Spalding has had a long slow slide into Trolldom.  He wasn't always that way, he is just Rootin Tootin American, and very bullish.  Earlier posts, while they sometimes seemed like an attempt to thread hijack because of the sheer volume of cut-n-pasting, had relevant information, and provided what I thought to be a valid contrarian (at least in ZH general concensus) opinion.

Spalding however, tended to get D's in "Works and Plays well with Others".  As with the argument over the "chcken or the egg", attacks by and against Spalding escalated until there was very little civilized discourse left.

Though I seldom agreed with Trolololololololo, we had several decent arguments, and I respected his opinion, never thinking of him as a troll in the true sense.  But now, he seems to have appointed himself as a TurdTroll, and seldom pops except to bash PM's. 


topcallingtroll's picture

ok that is pretty funny to watch.  What is it?

akak's picture

I am not sure, but I like to think of him as "The Singing AntiChrist".

CD's picture

That is indeed a disconcerting video, the gentleman's face just rubs the nerves the wrong way for me. I wonder if we can institute this as the new Rick Roll for ZH, especially for ZH trolls...

At times I wonder if Spaulding is really a reader, or simply a very highly developed Turing test for us mere humans. I rarely see the username post ANYthing not cut & pasted.

Monedas's picture

I hope you people aren't making fun of Andres Calamaro ! He´s not a Socialist ! Anyone that happy can not in fact be a Socialist ! Monedas 2011 He brings out my Continental, sophisticated, romantic, bon vivant side ! I'd like to see Steve Martin lip sync Trololo wearing that Bavarian hat with the pheasant feather he wore in The Jerk ! Ooooops ! His name is Eduard Khil and he's a Russian singer from the 60's ! The song had words, happy words, so happy the Communist censors deleted them !.....The 1966 song titled "I am so happy to finally be back home !" by Arkadi Ostrovski was the story of an American cowboy who happily returns to his Kentucky home to find his wife knitting him wool socks ! That had to be censored ?

rumblefish's picture

what tard junked turd?


hey turd, when you are buying your metals options you discuss on your site, are you buyint them on GLD and SLV or is something else I'm missing entirely?

JW n FL's picture

I junked them all.. fuck wad.. fucking leeches.. 1st fucking post is fucking advertising for someone who cant get clicks without fucking coat tail riding zero hedge.. and how many names do you have now that you talk to yourself with Turd?

Rynak's picture

Yet strangely, other much more aggressive spammers do not seem to get the same treatment.

JW n FL's picture

I have cussed them all.. its just Turds turn.. I read his stuff, I even like his stuff.. but God Damn! fucking let the FX guys breath a lil bit! they have been here how long? and I brought them here.. so its personal.. no I am not paid anything to say that.

Rynak's picture

Actually, there in this thread and multiple other recent threads, is a spampost, by someone who has forever done almost nothing else than do spamposts, in nearly every thread. And that post - just like in other recent threads - has only been junked by me.

JW n FL's picture

is it the Indian with the dot on his head? not the feather kind. that fucking douche'?

Rynak's picture

Silberblick. Check his track - doing almost nothing else than spamming every thread with links to his site. The other two who are nothing else than spam accounts (though, not active in this thread): icm63, hedgefundlive

JW n FL's picture

Tyler allows them.. I mean I complain.. but I just play here.. and promote the place based on the quality of people.. and arguments / discussions!


so, my selfish.. whinney, pms motivated.. bitch in a public chat room.. LMFAO! wanna be nazi, Troll Censor move is.. to bitch about people who post 1st to promote themselves on another guys site!


I understand I am wrong! but I am going to do it any way! I understand Imake myself look like a kook! but I am gonna sing about it any way! LMFAO!!


Sorry Rynak to bother you with my selfish censorship crusade!


Silverblick I have not seen to much? I will go back.. I take that back, as I am typing this... I have seen him.. but isnt he like normaly down the page or second page? forgive me if I am wrong and I will make a note to check on him now... for my own selfish, pms, nazi, censorship push!

Rynak's picture

Usually posting on first page, but typically not first post. Certainly higher spampost-count though. As i said, check his/her track instead of takin my word for it.

I have no problems with people sometimes posting a relevant link to their blog. I just have a problem with people who are almost exclusively here to promote their site. And in the case of silberblick, he/she doesn't even care about topic relevance, but just posts a link to the newest blogarticle on almost every ZH thread.

topcallingtroll's picture

I agree.  Stealing Durden's vibes.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Got Communism .... ?

Turd Ferguson said...

Tony: Don't you dare call my blog a wasteland. If you don't like it, go away and don't come back.




Ooops eeee ...
swattsup said...

Help - 
A short time ago Mr. Turd posted some gold miners (5 I think) he suggested we look at. I've lost track of them and would appreciate it if someone could supply the date/link.

Many Thanks.


tmosley's picture

I see you have found a new target for your butthurt.

Don't you have some t-shirts to deliver or something?

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Hey look Captain T. " silver will never fall below $35 again " Mosley Abdula' Koresh .... Nice call before a 35-40% drop

Go rotate the potatoes in the bunker™ or get mommy some flour



"The retreat in housing-market activity that's now under way amounts to a simmering-down process...rather than a classic cyclical contraction that could spiral down for some time."

- David Seiders, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders, Jan 2006

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Fucking Lol


Silver History • 

1900 - $0.80

1910 - $0.70

1920 - $1.70

1930 - $0.50

1940 - $0.42

1950 - $0.90

1960 - $1.00

1970 - $2.00

1980 - $48.00 ( Two months later below $10.00 )

1990 - $6.00

2000 - $5.00

2003 - $5.00

2006 - $8.50

2009 - $12.00

2010 - $18.00

Bay of Pigs's picture

Where ya been lately? You have plenty of new company around here. You'll be absolutely thrilled with some of these newbie trolls. 

Silver at $35 and up 85% YOY. Looking good by my count. You missed that part? And look at poor gold, only $1500 now. Ouch.


Spalding_Smailes's picture

Really busy ... 


You will see a small bounce before another 35% - 45% pimp slap ....

Bay of Pigs's picture

Okay, you've made your predictions. I don't know your time frame on this but here they are.

Gold @ $1500 -35%=$975, -45%=825

Silver @ $35 -35%=$23, -45%=$19

So there you have it. Gold between $825-975 and silver $19-23. Let's all keep up with Spaldings calls going forward. 


topcallingtroll's picture

Sorry Spalding.  Gotta disagree this time.  With the real rates as low as they are and the Fed still pushing on the pedal with the short end I see gold staying about where it is, maybe a small drop of ten to 15 percent.  Silver on the other hand may definitely drop, but it is either in consolidation or distribution and hell if I know which.  I lean toward distribution, but in a mania the psychos rule.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

When QE3 does not happen ( As I said over the last 4 months ) and the rate hike jawboning starts it's all over ...


The doom trade is over ....



trav7777's picture

who is going to cover the federal deficit if the Fed isn't buying?

Libertarian777's picture

help me understand pls.

If QE3 does not happen, will interest rates not increase?

From my understanding, each 1% increase in interest rates adds something on the order of $350 billion to the interest cost.

so if the 10 year goes to about 5.5%, that's a 2% increase (roughly), so the government, with a $1.6 trillion projected deficit this year, would have a $2.3 trillion deficit next year.

I know unlimited deficit spending is  a Good Thingtm, as Greece has proven, so are you saying that higher interest rates will improve the 'full faith and credit' of the US government that backs the US $ (via US Treasuries monetised)? And again, Greece (and Portugal) have proven how double digit interest rates strengthen the currency? (well i guess the Euro is getting to 1.50$).


ColonelCooper's picture

And I'll still be in the green.  Fuck me, I'm scared.

earnyermoney's picture

Aw your feelings are hurt because Turd blacklisted you from his site. LOL

bruinjoe93's picture

Some banker junked Turd!


Keep up the good work Mr. Turd.

JustanEmotion's picture

If this is spam, keep it coming :D

HeliBen's picture

I respectfully disagree Turd, major corrections (over 15% for silver) do not end in two weeks. The current trendline is smashed, the main trendline is around 23, will get there in the next year or so, hopefully in the next month or two. Just my opinion.

Sokhmate's picture

I had a memory flash when i saw your handle. Are you the same heliben from the land of mish?

HeliBen's picture

Yep, I am. Though I stopped going to that site since that deflationary fool was such, well, a fool.

HeliBen's picture

Speaking of Mishkin, I had an email exchange with him about a year and half ago asking him if he was ready to retract his deflation call. Nope. Vehemently NO.

Oooopsie... Though I am sure he is still spinning it some way or another. I see his comment section counts are pushing 20 a posting now, lol. Just like the old days, when only his mom and I were reading his blog!

Bay of Pigs's picture

Mish used to get 150-200 comments a thread. I went there last night and saw 12-15.

Most of the posters I liked like Black Swan, Many Arrows and Tin Hat are long gone now. Very few Goldbugs left there at all. 

True, most everyone there hammers anyone who questions the "deflation" theory. I've been Mish's target on many occasions. Keeps me sharp. LOL.

HeliBen's picture

Yeah, at least that many, he was pushing 300+ at one point.

Blast from the past... I remember Black Swan and Tin Foil, do not remember Many Arrows... maybe Broken Arrows or something like that? And Drew Terry, wonder if he is alright, 2012 baby!

It was pretty fun back then.

HeliBen's picture

Found the email from Mishku:


I will save this for later, when the currency craps out and the Fed successfully destroys the value of the dollar, and have you sign it with the towel.

Don't hold your breath.
1) you may suffocate in the meantime
2) If not I will change my tune

Most importantly

How many times does this have to be stated?


BTW - Schiff is a wimp. I offered to bury the hatchet on any forum of his choosing, and I even offered to tape it, letting him decide if it would air, if he would debate me on the issues. I stated that I would seek to emphasize things we agree on as opposed to our differences.

He declined.

Even more remarkable, the email discussion started from HIM not me. Yes, Schiff out of the blue a few weeks ago emailed me.

Furthermore, we have a mutual friend, Charles Goyette who likes both of us, who agreed to tape the recording.

I proposed Goyette knowing he liked Schiff. Charles Goyette agreed to contact Schiff. Schiff still declined.

I wote a few sentence recommendation for Goyette's new book coming out soon. So did Schiff.

Schiff is a total, complete wimp.

In case you want another one: CNN asked me about 6 weeks ago if I would go on the air with Schiff. I told them anytime, but Schiff would never do it.

In response, CNN said "Schiff agreed to debate anyone".
I said "Bring it on, but it won't happen".

It never happened. Schiff wimped out.
Your hero is a complete wimp.





Please be serious
Housing crashed
oil fell from 140 to 35
copper crashed
equities crashed
Treasury yields hit all time lows
Foreign equities fell more than US equities
Consumers threw in the towel

there has never been such a global coordinated fight against deflation in history

and most importantly


No matter what I said.
I called for all of those and clowns like you mocked me all the way.

Now you hide behind the mask of "the great inflation is coming"

I NOT you can change my tune anytime I want.
The reason is I won the bet.
You my friend are stuck predicting the future whereas I called it correctly.

In due time I will change my stance to inflation, in due time. But you are stuck in a lost bet unable to change your tune.

If you had any integrity you would simply admit you were wrong.

But the Bet is OVER.
I won.
Deflation before hyperinflation.

Get over it.
Moreover hyperinflation may be decades away IF it happens at all.



The towel is history
You lost

HeliBen's picture

I should probably go ask for a towel again, haha!

Fedophile's picture

I will not allow deflation.

Sokhmate's picture

I used to skip many comments over to those of Black swan etc. Good stuffs. Mish always had an arrogant approach that grew blatant. He would not address any challenging valid point, and always defensive. This probably was the reason for his short-circuited IT career.

HeliBen's picture

And I am STILL waiting on my towel!