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Gold Below $1,200 As Asset Liquidations Spread Like Wildfire
The European liquidations we discussed earlier courtesy of the ECB MRO and the repo rate spike, which resulted in a massive EURUSD covering squeeze, have followed through into industrial commodities such as oil and lastly into gold. And as liquidations are merely emblematic of a broken liquidity system (as the name implies), the unwind behind the scenes must be fierce. On the other hand, as the only recourse to prevent an all out systemic collapse should the deflationary trend continue, from Ben Bernanke's perspective, is just to print more money and thus solidify the position of the precious metal as undilutable and a currency which can not be backed with toxic MBS and Greek Sov Bonds, today's sell off is a much welcomed respite for the commodity which traded at record highs as recently as this week. Also, our recent disclosure of PM market manipulation via disclosed COMEX-OTC arbing by such former behemoths as AIG then (and presumably JPM now), should only add to your comfort that once the finger on the scales is removed, the natural reaction will be that of a coiled spring.
In the meantime, here is a one year gold price chart.
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even this can't keep the equity markets from being down! dollar down, mkts down = bad news!!!
Great news! PM's on sale today. It takes even fewer little wads of paper to buy beautiful golden coins.
do i have to write Ben or Jamie the thank you note on the bargain gold and silver?
o, and boyz? i'm taking delivery on all of it next month. thanks
PHYS -1.19%
GLD -3.68%
Physical shines through, paper profits flee.
Don not forget to write anyone holding a 401k....I hope you have some free time on your hands.
write the thank you note on PAPER...
Of course, cause Mom taught you right, even if she couldn't get you to take a shower.
gold tards....shows the level of intelligence of the folks who still believe i'm going to trade my metals for pretty green paper that Ben prints up at warp speed.
no thanks. i'm over that.
Yes, Gold only ever moves up. Everybody knows that.
Except during a deflationary apocalypse. And everybody knows that those are impossible.
And what will force me to liquidate? I am debt free, I have stable employment, and I am energy and food self sufficient. Perhaps I would liquidate a little when I hire you to mow my yard. . . Naw, I would not liquidate any to get you to mow my yard, maybe I would give you a few eggs, though.
How much grass are we talkin'?
Hi, Mr. Hendrix. Yard is pretty big, but with a good "Idiot Stick" I think it could be mowed in a day. Mr. Bravo will have to be on his best behavior to get the job though.
Haha, well at least he will not want to be paid in gold!
Wait, did MasterBates/Johnny Bravo change identities again? Is he now "Megatoxic?"
I can still hear Tom Jones singing, "...and it's good, to smoke, the green green grass, of home!"
I would let the grass grow up real high.
It makes for great cover if you want to mine your yard or shoot at the marauding packs of robbers.
Don't have that kind of neighbors. People are hard working, independent types around here.
Ditch the grass. Grow more food. Sell the excess.
For silver coins.
Is that like strip-mine or land-mine? NBD -- they are equally imaginative...
A friend of mine got caught in downtown LA when the 1992 riots started, he got away by running around yelling about poor Rodney King and kicking over a few trashcans. The rioters thought he was one of them and left him alone. Make sure you appear to be as destitute as possible so the marauding robbers will leave you alone. Letting the grass grow is a good start.
Concealment in a ghilly--sux as cover - Ned
Nobody...and I mean nobody...has "stable employment" in a deflationary apocalypse.
And very few are "energy and food self-sufficient" when the world is on fire.
You chose the PERFECT handle.
"Nobody...and I mean nobody...has "stable employment" in a deflationary apocalypse"
Which is why we own PM's, and energy and food self sufficient.
if you aren't already energy and food self sufficient now, I really doubt you can be when the safety net is removed
You are correct. Food independence is something you have to work on. It requires knowledge of local growing conditions, and more to it than a backyard garden. Energy independence is really a matter of $$. Solar and wind do make sense today. If electricity is 10 cents per KWH, investment in home solar/wind (with utility/gov incentives) ROI turns out to be about 10%.
You are living the way I do. Being debt-free gives you such a great feeling. I just wish that I had worked on becoming more energy self-sufficient. I know there is still time though.
BTW, I too have a seemingly stable job. We produce a product everybody seems to want - electricity (and our "factory" makes copious amounts of it).
Mow a yard? If it comes down to it, I would let the calves graze our lawn down. The big cows are sometimes too curios/clumsy and tend to break things. The calves just stand and eat.
Sorry we could not pull off that PM/Steer swap the other day. Distances were too great.
On energy Independence, up in your neck of the woods, Imperial Electric does superb work on solar/wind installations. Fair prices, and ROI is better than $$ in a CD.
OT - sort of.
On other forums I visit, they have private mail boxes (hence the term "PM me", which would have a totally different connotation here). How is the best way to give you my e-amil address? In the future mileage may not be such a hindrance.
Wow, I was able to complete the captcha without a calculator. Am I getting smarter, or is it getting easier?
Wow, somebody on this site agrees with me?
Holy buckets!
Although the downward action in gold was a result of the failed retest of the rising wedge trendline at 1240, after it broke the wedge earlier in the week.
I told you so, bitchez? LOL
Bookmark that. We'll talk again in a few months.
A few days more likely.
I'll be buying a little tomorrow myself. My cousin took advantage and bought a BUNCH near today's low.
I can buy slowly because I have been a believer since the 1980s, buying in onezies and twozies fopr a long time.
Hey, DCRB, I like this chart a whole lot more:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1
It's weird that I am glad you are here? The other one isn't making a case for anything. So where do you see gold going? And what is up with the doelarr Johnny? If you can't hold doelarrs, then what? We shop at grocery stores with T-Bills?
I'm not sure about the dollar to be honest, I haven't followed the chart for a bit. I did call that it had a target of 89, and it hit that, but I haven't paid attention since, so I'm not going to pretend like I know.
I'm not overly concerned about the dollar, personally, because the dollar index has been steady since Reagan! After Reagan's deficits, the DXY dropped from 160 to 80, and it hasn't really broken 80 by a whole lot since. As long as we're in the above 80 range it's cool.
I've seen P&F charts on the dollar as low as 66, but I don't really believe that. That's as low as it might go, but I think those charts were old anyway.
As far as where I think gold goes, I think that the wedge measures to the low 900s eventually. (which is about a 50% fib retracement) I don't think it'll happen overnight, but that's my story and I'm stickin to it.
There's a larger wedge from the beginning of the gold run with a target in the 600s, but that wedge is still intact and I don't see it broken any time soon. I think that it'll go back there once the economy recovers, which will be who knows when?
Also, thanks for saying you're glad to see me. I like you, and a lot of others here, even if I am not well liked by some.
Well that is your story, and I an glad you are sticking to it.
So you have no problems with FIAT still? The macro pic is looking horrible Bravo, horrible! I see no recovery ever, personally. This is a depression, and it will last at least a decade. And even with austerity measures, I think paper debt will price into FIAT with huge ramifications in their respective values. Once we move from the soveirgn debt/liquidity crisis that we are currently in, I think that the currentsea crisis will be much worse. In that crisis I think that gold and silver and platinum and oil (maybe comodities, but I would rather be producing them than buying them) will be the only winners. This is the time your and my theories get put to the test; this is a big crunch. Time will tell....
Here are my counter-arguments, quickly, and then I really should be doing my homework... :)
I think austerity is the wrong way to go about things, at least in terms of raising taxes. However, when the next dip comes, we will have some sort of money printing / QE program.
I think we can both agree on that much.
Where we disagree is in two places. First, I think that inflation that is well beyond the scope of actual, or even potential inflation, is already priced into gold. I think that people have taken the gold price too high based on speculative inflation, and I think that it is fundamentally overvalued because of this.
As far as more money printing not causing inflation, you have to look at it like this.
When the economy grew based on future demand (credit) back in the early to mid 2000s, inflation also grew based on future demand. Yet, the amount of credit was not sufficient to sustain asset prices at the levels that they had inflated to.
Long story short, asset prices and inflation outpaced the consumer's ability to pay for them. Inflation was also too high for the time, which is why we are deflating, and not hyperinflating now, even with QE.
I also believe that we can print enough money to sustain those asset prices, and it will only cause asset prices to be stable, and not increase with hyperinflation.
My thoughts are that the money supply is way too low for current asset prices as it is, and you can print as much money as it takes to reinflate without more inflation in the economy. All the money printing will do is stop deflation, not necessarily cause inflation. That's why gold is (and a lot of other assets like houses are) priced too high in terms of expected inflation in my opinion.
Those are my theories, and of course we disagree. Of course, we can always do so respectfully.
I'm going to use a quick analogy that explains my position.
You have a balloon. The balloon was inflated by air (credit), but the air was not sustainable because of a hole in the balloon (unsustainable credit). The balloon keeps deflating, because no matter how much air you pump into it, it isn't enough air to fill the balloon.
You can keep blowing up the balloon all you want, and it still doesn't inflate back to it's normal levels until things normalize.
That is why we can't see inflation, even if a lot more money is printed. The previous asset levels were the unsustainable balloon. We can print money until we grow into that balloon again, and it still won't inflate past where it was the entire time. Dig? Okay cool.
Big Ben can add more zeros to the currency faster than the air can leak out of the balloon, if it comes down to it.
+1
I can dig it. But remember that on the other side of the hole, the rest of the world expects us to pay them back, and not with hot air ;)
I like what you did there
Hey Johnny -
You're not understanding the difference between endogenous and exogeneous credit creation.
Look it up please. Dig? Cool.
Man, I love this site!
Austerity equals budget cuts. Raising taxes comes from the money printing; unfortunately for the dreams of recovery, we are now about to implement both. Big mistake. We should have never done the printing and increased taxes side, and let the public secter take some deserved lumps.
Gold does well in both inflationary and deflationary scenarios, so I do not understand how it has priced in inflation? Maybe it has merely been priced in, but at any rate, we face some more of the same manic inflation/deflation. Any more inflation then deflation, no wait inflation now deflation and Jimi will start lullybying the market with Manic Depression.
Print enough monie to support asset prices? You mean keep the prices fixed? In a depression? Who will buy TVs and wiis and cars and homes? All of the mentioned are going to get their asses handed to them. And when nothing is making money, instead of cash staying in cash (thank you interest rates) it will move to gold, like it has for the past year and a half.
Money supply too low? What about if you include all assets, and then remember that all are way over valued, derivitives for example.
Derivatives: Explaining Derivatives, And Goldman's Dominance Thereof, In Four Simple Charts:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/explaining-derivatives-and-goldmans-dom...
You see, I think that the whole system is a farce. I know, makes it hard to argue....but I enjoy your counter point, as it is well thought out.
What have you to say about peak oil, and doesn't that throw a wrench in any recovery?
Johnny Bravo said:
JohnnyB, I am impressed and yet confused by this lengthy and thoughtful post, which is UTTERLY unlike the usual quick, flippant, disrespectful one-liners that I have seen you post in the past (that was NOT intended as a slam here, though). While I am glad to see you engaging in honest conversation and debate here, may I ask why you waited so long to finally do so?
I am not trying to insult you here, only regretting that you did not take such a tack long ago here on ZeroHedge --- a whole lot of needless rancor could have been thereby avoided had you chosen to comment in the past with reasoned thoughts and arguments as you have done so here today.
For what it's worth, though, I am glad to see the change!
Johnny Bravo is a crew. It just happened to be this fella's shift.
This has been discussed at some length in the past when he was Master Bates.
Tomorrow you'll get the old irascible Johnny.
.
Rocky, after rereading "his" posts above, I am embarrassed that I did not realize that sooner, so obvious now it is in retrospect. But I am glad, and yet disturbed, to know that now. As in, why would a GROUP of trolls go to such effort merely to bash gold? One has to ask oneself this question in all seriousness.
I bet it's the Tylers causing a ruckus.
Surely you must realize that TPTB not only know of this site & monitor this site, but also post to this site.
Now, Johnny & Master may be 20 year olds or CIA or NSA or KGB or FED or Volker or whoever.
And stop calling me Shirley!
Replying to "his" posts is really schizophrenic. Like arguing with 10 people at the same time. Mostly a useless exercise. Note that "his" supposed TA work is quite amateurish, and he contradicts himself by saying he does not trade real money, yet he pays his tuition with his "winnings". Aaaargh. What a waste.
I think you are very optimistic talking about decade to get to some kind of balance. It will take a decade to write off debts, change people minds, then it will take at least 20 years to get back goods producing industries back to US. So it looks like minimum 30 years period.
This guy (whatever his name, Blano, Master Bates does not have any idea about how people exchange value) is here just to stir up a bit audience, if he thinks that 40$ decline in price of gold (in paper market) is sign of big crisis in gold market he must be nuts and he knows it.
Anyway, if I had 100k in gold instead of 100k in paper, at the end of this madness, I bet him, I will have something and he will have nice pile of papers and good memories, that's all.
I disagree with you too JB, but like having you around as well. When you are in a good mood, you make some valid points that I like to think through.
I still think that everyone should have at least 5% of their net wealth in physical gold. I am at 6% heading for 7%.
You are a clown. You told us 6 months ago a move under $1,000 was imminent. Voila:
by Master Bates on Sun, 01/31/2010 - 22:44 #212819
I was talking mad shit at the gold peak, remember? Deafening silence indeed.
I was like "gold is about to decline" while all you people were like "gold bitches" back when it was in the 1200's. Now it's at 1070, and I'm still talking.
That descending triangle on the gold chart and the bull cross on the USD MACD looks pretty ominous.
You might consider paring back some of those gold reserves, homey.
Remember I told you this when gold is sub 1000.
This has been a public service from Master Bates.
Have a nice day!
It still is. Look at the big rising wedge in the charts above. It took that long for the wedge to play out.
It's still going down to at least the 900s based on the wedge you see above. I don't have a timeline, but that's the technical pattern's resolution.
Also, note that my call was right at the time. Thanks for proving how right I was.
Pure @#$%^&* poetry...I love it.
Analysis -- not so much...
Look man, you can do the math.
gold's low at the bottom of the rising wedge (2008) = 600ish
gold's high at the top of the rising wedge = 1250ish (for the sake of easy math)
1250 - 600 whatever is 650 * .50 = 325 1250 - 325 = 925.
Those are crude calculations based on fibonacci retracements from the wedge pattern that started in 2008.
My TA is superb, yo.
I do what I can about the poetry.
Also, look how nice I've always been to you people.
"Have a nice day!" "I'd pare back the gold, homey."
I mean fuck. That's so much nicer than the stuff people say to me.
Nice? You often come across as a smug little prick. And I mean this constructively.
That said, I enjoyed, and appreciate your lucid exchanges, but it's like pulling teeth to get you to come out with those thoughts.
I don't like echo chambers and too much of any flavor oof K00l-Aid is toxic.
We don't get much of the "lucid" stuff. Read what he says above and it becomes clear why. Gold is not all about rising wedgies. It is moving on fundamentals much older than the U. S. itself, to be sure. When JB "reasons" he peels back the veil of disinformation and money illiteracy that pervades his so-called thought.
I believe that for JPM, it very much is.
Sometimes, Johnny, you have to let go of the technicals, and concentrate a little more on fundamentals. Think about it.
Okay, fundamentals.
Gold mining price = 400 an ounce. Even with 50% markup that's only 600 an ounce. That's good markup.
Next, gold price in 2001 = 250. Inflation since 2001 has inflated things about 2 to 2.5 times.
2.5 X 250 = 625.
If you want to talk monetary policy and inflation, see my other posts.
Have a nice day.
WHERE does gold cost $400? an oz to pull out? How many mines can produce how much gold for that price? Not many, and not much. You act as if there were some infinitely large vein that circles the globe that costs exactly $400 to get into.
That piddling amount of supply doesn't amount to much when central banks worldwide are stocking up on money, and dumping FRNs. That is beside the massive amount that is now flowing into private hands.
What method do you use for picking starting points, end points, and durations? How far back does your analysis go? Most importantly, have you tested your model using historic charts? Pick a random sampling of time periods and see how accurately your model predicts the next time period. If you've done this, then, by all means, please share your results.
I use a technique called St. Andrew's pitchfork to determine price channels and starting points.
I don't really have a specific time period, but when you see the patterns on the chart, you know when the trend has changed. Then you draw trendlines, and when those converge with technical indicators, you know they're about to break.
Gold did this recently.
I picked the period from the 2008 low to the 2009 high as the starting points for the trendline of the wedge.
So what good is your prediction if it's going to be a year late? Thought TA was supposed to be good for short term trades not "Sometime in the future the price will go down! Trade on it!" "2012. The Mayans had it right gold to hit 900. The Mayans were predicting a bunch of pissed gold bugs"
Call me crazy but I thought trading required good timing. So did you short gold and ride the price up? I'm still waiting for your killer app investment. But if you can't offer a specific trading time frame how are you trying to protect your investments?
First of all, there's no way that I'd trade without stops, so I wouldn't have ridden a short on gold all the way up to the top.
Second, I don't trade gold at all.
Third, I never gave a timeframe, but I HAVE been saying that it will bust soon very recently.
When it was at 1220 before, the technical patterns said to short. It was right.
Then, it hit the bottom, and gold went back up.
I said to short at 1220, and it hit 1070 at least. That was a good call, and there's no denying that.
As far as my recent calls about the wedge, you never know when a technical pattern will bust until it does. You just don't. I thought we'd get a little bit higher on this run, but it does what it does. I have been talking about the wedge busting like every day for a couple of weeks now. I didn't think it'd happen this soon, but it did. Still...
You don't trade a pattern until it breaks its trendline, etc. If you do before that, it's stupid to do.
Also, TA is good for more than just short term trades. You just have to make sure to use the right stochastics, etc, for the time frame you are looking at.
Also, I don't even trade gold. I trade VXX and FAZ and FAS.
So if your not trading gold then why do a TA on it? Seems to me like doing an in depth analysis and coming to a rock solid conclusion and then not trading on it seems like a waste of time and effort.
I personally don't care to try to pick up nickels in front of the steam roller. We all know Zimbabwe Ben will pull the nuclear option so I don't care if it takes a while for me to get paid. Hell hope gold does go to 900. Buys me more time when my salary will buy me a ton of goodies. And if I'm wrong and the Dollar because a juggernaut then good, still paid in dollars. I'll laugh off my gold mistake and gleefully embrace my super valuable dollars.
I'm a student, and I absolutely LOVE this subject. The more practice I can get, the better I will be when I'm really putting my ass on the line. That's why I analyze as much stuff as I can. For practice, and for the love of what I'm doing. I really love technical analysis, and though I'm wrong once in a while, I resolve to refine my skills as much as possible. Knowing when to admit that you are wrong is the most important thing, not always being right. With that said, I've been making damn good calls on my blog lately, already made enough money trading, and I'm going to get even better. It's my passion, and I'll put all my free time into it. I'd rather be doing it than anything else. Believe that.
I'm serious. I'd rather be looking at charts than most things. I know it sounds weird, but that's why I do it.
Plus, gold is so controversial, it gives me a chance to do my favorite other thing - debate (I was Colorado state champion in debate in high school, and debate is also something I love.)
It's all out of love, practice, and doing what I like doing. Really.
As far as trading goes, I've made enough money to quit working until I finish college if I want to and still pay my tuition (and bills until then) with no debt. That's 40k I've paid in tuition alone. Some of it was my own money, but trading has allowed a lot of it to be the house's money. I wouldn't call that picking up nickels in front of a steamroller.
I made close to 70% on the way down from 1220 alone. I was worried about taking out loans for my senior year, but now I don't have to be. That isn't chump change friend. Plus, I paid off my car, and all my debts are paid.
The better I get, the better I'll be. Imagine when I'm doing this for a living, or when I'm trading REAL money of my own. That's why I work so hard now. I love it.
If you make money on gold, better for you. Good luck in everything you do. It's not going to stop me from voicing my opinion if you agree with me or don't agree.
Go for it, JB.
This is possibly good data to support your model, so I have to ask; Did you make all that profit from trading based only on your model or did any other variables come into play?
Here you go again with the smug little prick crap. Leave the pissing match bullshit oue, and stick to your theories. If I wanted to hear how much money you made using your system, I would TEVO Carlton Sheets infomercials.
Intersesting, but I'm having a hard time rectifying these two statements:
"Second, I don't trade gold at all...When it was at 1220 before, the technical patterns said to short. It was right. Then, it hit the bottom, and gold went back up."
"I made close to 70% on the way down from 1220 alone."
I was wondering the same thing. Maybe he's just paper trading? But that does not pay tuition, does it? Something is wrong here and it ain't us.
Johnny,
I believe you are a sincere enough guy, and it is obvious that you have a passion for what you are doing, and are a true believer in what you are saying. That is all good.
It is also true that some on this board might have a broader and longer life experience, and potentially have learned some hard life lessons that you have not yet experienced.
In that spirit, let me give you some fatherly advice, which I hope you will not be offended by, as I do not mean to be offensive or condescending, just perhaps interject some thoughts.
Those of us who have been around a while have seen MANY young guys get into trading as you are. It is common to see great enthusiasm, and some initial success. As some quick and easy money comes off of a young person's "system" (in this case, your TA theories), the person develops great confidence/over confidence in them. This is usually based on lots of analysis (without real investment), or investing smaller amounts of money, that one can afford to lose. The next chapter in the story is that this confidence leads to ever increasing bets, and ever increasing gains. Then, something changes, and they lose the farm.
The thing you have to not lose sight of is that the price of gold/stock or anything else will fundamentally depend on headlines, irrespective of what the charts look like. If tomorrow the headlines come out that Iran has launched a surprise attack on Saudi Arabia, the price of oil will go up . . . it does not matter how perfectly aligned the charts say it should go down. Similarly, if the headlines came out tomorrow, and it is announced that Pons and Fleishman were correct, and that Cold Fusion can in fact work, the price of oil will go down, no matter what the charts look like. To blindly invest or trade based on reading the tea leaves of the charts might work for some period of time, but you are setting yourself up for utter ruin, as the day will come when the headlines will decapitate you.
To genuinely build wealth over the long term you must first and foremost consider the economic, geopolitical, and technological landscape.
To believe in TA absolutely is to believe that the shape of the charts predict the headlines. It would be the same thing to say that when a certain pattern is seen in the price of sugar, that means that a hurricane is about to hit. What happens tomorrow is not known, and is not predicted by ups and downs on a chart.
correct
Your a student? No wonder your head is wrapped in technical analysis. You can't remember when fundamentals were just as important. You may just get your ass handed to you
With this post you have declared yourself to be entirely full of it or yourself. Likely both.
Falsifiable? What would the charts look like if you were wrong and gold bugs were right? The charts would look the same, wouldn't they? So the data matches both theories. What would the data need to look like to disprove your theory and show that you're not just playing in numerology and can spot anomalies?
Well, the charts wouldn't have slightly higher highs with much higher lows. That is a characteristic of the rising wedge.
Some people say it is a cup and handle, but I believe that that pattern was just part of the larger wedge.
It's not about always being right as much as it's looking for points to exploit, knowing when to run with your calls, and knowing where to put the tight stops.
As far as the "data" goes, I really don't have time to get into all of it right now, I should have stopped posting a while ago.
My key indicators are stochastics, MACD, and trendlines, but it's a lot more complicated than that. I also do a lot of reading too.
I seriously doubt your sub-900, but I also seriously don't care. I am in way below that and have seen many of your kind of posters come and go over the years.
Didn't I ask you once before, how fed dot gov is going to pay off Treasuries in an environment of persistent deflation? Did you ever provide an answer? Maybe they'll declare force majeure?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/785759...
Andrew Roberts, credit chief at RBS, is advising clients to read the Bernanke text very closely because the Fed is soon going to have to the pull the lever on "monster" quantitative easing (QE)".
"We cannot stress enough how strongly we believe that a cliff-edge may be around the corner, for the global banking system (particularly in Europe) and for the global economy. Think the unthinkable," he said in a note to investors.
Roberts said the Fed will shift tack, resorting to the 1940s strategy of capping bond yields around 2pc by force majeure said this is the option "which I personally prefer".
Economic policy at the muzzle of a gun. But then, all war is economic, isn't it?
Edit: oh yeah, you're the trader who doesn't consider fundamentals. Never mind then. Trade away, have fun while it lasts.
Come and go is right. Gold makes a new nominal high, he's gone. Gold gets spiked, he arrives as if conjured. I was wondering about the absence, but figure he was away at yoga classes working on the new avatar photo.
Actually, if you wanna know the truth, dick... my zerohedge account was blocked until a few days ago I got an e-mail saying I was approved again.
I never anticipated coming back here, but I figured what the hell, since it was reapproved. I didn't reapply, but somebody blocked it and probably decided that I was worth a lot to the site and reinstated it.
I don't know why they blocked me, and I don't know why they let me back in, but that's what happened.
I don't leave when gold is up. I was here the entire run up to the new highs.
Like I said, somebody blocked me, I never reapplied, and then I got "reinstated" for whatever reason. Here's the e-mail. I am blocking my personal email address for obvious reasons. Also, I am xing out the links in the message in case somebody could use them to change my passwords. I got this mail June 24th.
Ok, ok, you seem cool enough. Thursday, June 24, 2010 10:56 PM From: "info@zerohedge.com" <info@zerohedge.com>Add sender to Contacts To: xxxxxxx@yahoo.com Ok, we thought it was some spam artist, but since you (the candidate) stood out on our porch for two days and two nights without encouragement, you appear to be legit.
Maybe we are going to regret this, but your account at zero hedge has been activated.
You may now log in by clicking on this link or copying and pasting it in your browser:
xxxxxx
This is a one-time login. Use it not more than once twice, not less than once never, but once.
After logging in, you will be redirected to xxxxxx so you can change your password.
Once you have set your own password, you will be able to log in to xxxxxxx in the future using:
username: Johnny Bravo
While I disagree with you, I am actually glad you are here. It genuinely is hard to know what to do these days, so I like to read opposing view points give their best shots. Helps me to self evaluate if I still have confidence in my strategy.
In case you are wondering, after reading all your TA, I still have complete confidence in my strategy.
Thanks buddy! I appreciate that you appreciate it.
To be honest, I really put my TA "out there" so that I have to withstand public scrutiny. I don't expect anybody to take my advice, but I do expect to get better at what I do by putting my reputation on the line over and over. It gives me an incentive to strive to be right. Besides, making goals without them being public isn't much fun, is it?
I'd rather be out in the open about being wrong if I'm wrong, because it makes me work that much harder to not be wrong. I'm not a master at this, but I WILL be one day, come hell or high water.
As far as your strategy, do as you wish. I hope that nobody here loses money, except for the people that are assholes, and I still wish them well more or less. So good luck, and hopefully you do well with your strategies.
Have a great day.
Johnny,
Since you obviously are trying to do serious research on this, then I will respect your opinion. But there is one fatal flaw in your analysis: IT CALLS FOR A RECOVERY. Gold may well trip over your wedge, get a pitchfork shoved up it ass and break it's cup handle at 900. So be it. One thing is different this time. We have unsustainable, unrecoverable, suffocating debt that we will not be able to service. I don't care if gold goes to 900, and silver to 12. Long before I need it, it will be worth at least what I paid for it, if not more.
You have talked before about people who got burned on PM. They were the ones who either panic bought or panic sold. I have had some silver since before you were born. Believe me, it has a long way to go down before I'm gonna lose my shirt on it.
Insurance. That's the beauty of PM. Gallon of gas in 1942, 1 silver quarter. Gallon of gas today, 1 silver quarter. AND I'll get a silver dime back. Gold may very well hit $50,000. My feeling is that if that's the case, 50,000 won't buy more than 1,250 today.
We'll see. But when you work up your models, try figuring in no recovery for a decade or two. Might need a bigger protractor to draw the new wedge.
Johnny B.--I'm kinda new here, but not new to decision making. So, I'd gently offer that your doing the Snoopy Dance over previous "predictions" that have come to pass help:
Best of Luck and Skill to you
- Ned
I thought you were going to be respectful, dick. I mean, dawg.
I never said sub 900, I said low 900s. Semantics, I know.
Also, you wanna talk fundamentals, the fundmental price of gold based on both inflation levels and mining + profit costs is about low 600s. We WILL see this level again when the economy recovers.
Before that, we'll see 900s, when the technical pattern finishes out.
Of course CNBC was saying it was time to buy stocks in spring of 09. I fail to see the difference. You could have bought stocks at SP500 at 666 and sold at 1150... they are all turds floating on the ocean called the credit system.
SP 500 fell to 670 range bounced to 1150+
Gold fell to 700 range and bounced to 1250+
They are all just turds floating on a functioning credit system that really isn't functioning.
Johnny Left Hand. Welcome back.
My cost basis in my physical gold is around $600, so I have a way to go before panic sets in.
JB "Broken records are correct every second op-ex...", or something like that...
Au/Ag, rare earth's, etc. all bound to be volatile like has not been seen in awhile. FX is effed. Demand physical and let's get this whole jig up.
Very very silly arguement if one could call it that.
As all assets will, gold could deflate during your apocalypse. But here's a clue as you're obviously in need: while the value of your silly paper denominated crap deflates by, let's say, 90%, gold will only come down 20 or 30%. See past deflationary spirals and tell us if you wouldn't have preferred to own some gold. At the height of the Weimar collapse, entire blocks in Berlin were purchased for a handful of gold coins by those smart enough to have acquired them. Those who held only paper were the ones who had to sell.
Might it be the case that you don't own any gold? Well, thank the nice people here on ZH for being patient with you, and use today and tomorrow to diversify some of your paper trash into hard assets.
"Gold is money, and nothing else". Google it...
Hey megatoesix:
Even in a deflationary collapse gold might move down, but not relative to everything else.
And that is what you toilet-paper tards just don't seem to get.
For your sake I'll try a very simple example that the likes of you might be able to pony:
It's late 2008. Oil/bbl has dropped from the area of $145/bbl to under $40/bbl, around 75%.
Gold dropped from about $1000/oz to around $675, about 33%.
In case your math isn't all that great: relative to oil gold actually gained value.
Are we learning yet, megatoxic?
Regards
Not so bright, but if I just held cash in late 2008 how much did I lose?
Wanting desperately to learn....
Heh, indeed idoubtit; but then the USD isn't the world's 'little darling' so much a year and half later, now is it? Peeps catching on fast these days. I mean: excepting you and your ilk, of course.
Also, if you held your precious bits of paper instead of gold since late 2008, remind me again how you're doing today?
Only impossible in dollar terms. In terms of Gold, we are in the mother of all deflationary apocalypses.
Forced liquidations, you make it sound novel. Some will yes, and they will live to regret it.
Do you know who else will live to regret it?
People who think that Gold only moves in one direction.
You know what I think? I think gold maintains relative value (even while being chronically manipulated) to other assets. Thats what I think. Thanks for asking.
So it's only manipulated on days when it's down? Not on days when it's parabolic though.
What flawed logic. The only thing manipulating anything is technicals, and the computers that trade them.
There's no conspiracy anywhere.
People that don't believe in technicals should after today's rout.
Come on Johnny! I believe in TA, but when the price is suppressed then action out of favor with it only means that the original price is being used.
For example, I think that gold should have been fair value at around $2500 going into '08 (Jan). Then I think through that year gold should have risen in value (but people are too ignorant to own it). By the time we would be in the now, Gold would be anywhere between $3500 and $5000. OK, now here is the part that we agree. Lets say we have a day like today, and trades unwind. Well, of course some fund managers are going to sell gold, they need to move their money around to try and make some profits! So it is not a matter of up and down, but rather a matter of fair value. And once again, what is up with the doelarr?
Nothing up about that dollar. Nothing at all.
The dollar is in the same situation as gold is. Both went up in rising wedges, and both must come down. I don't think we'll see 74 on the dollar again soon though, just like we won't see 600 in gold soon. Dig?
I don't know that I know enough about the dollar's current events to make a good calculation though.
As far as gold goes, I think that the fair value is closer to the 600-700 range. I just base this off of inflation and mining costs. That's where we definitely disagree.
However, I think that we won't see those levels until the economy recovers, and that low 900s is as low as we go until then.
But yeah, we basically disagree about the fundamental value of gold. As far as the dollar, it's subject to the same technical patterns.
A lot of people don't believe in TA, but over 70% of trading is on computers that utilize TA algorithms. That is what makes it valuable.
Fair enough, you got yours, I mine.
Honestly I think we are months maybe weeks away from seeing the end of the dollar. We live in a bubble economy, and if you are betting on a recovery you better bet on a bubble. We are in the middle, if not the end of a currentsea bubble, and when that pops, what? As Soros said, "Gold is the ultamate bubble." And the way I translate the word ultamate, is that he meant "LAST", as in FINAL.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZ9dtZ8lYww
Arise. Wedge arise. Arise Arise Arise wedge.
I'm not a newly converted believer Johnny.
I'm a statistician and I don't believe in TA. That should probably be stated I'm a statistician and that's WHY I don't beleive in TA.
You might as well devine the future reading entrails.
Damn. You mean I killed all those chickens for nothing?
Back to the drawing board.
Why would you care about dollars? They are worthless. The worth of a dollar is zero, and zero = zero, no matter how many times you repeat it. What you should really care about is gold: when its value (not its price) drops to zero it is game over.
Send me all the dollars you find.
Be happy to, if you pay me in gold at a set rate. Of course, when the price of gold rises above that price which we agree upon, I will most certainly stumble upon a lot more dollars than before. When they are littering the streets and floating in latrines, well, you'll have a problem on your hands, won't you?
Gold is rare, you see, while dollars are only as rare as those who print them choose to make them.
Why would I pay you a set rate for something he said was worth nothing? Strange. I bet you have some, just send them to, and when you get more, you can send those to me too. Tell you what, you sending me $20,000 of those worthless nothings and I will send you a gold coin each time and even throw in a silver coin too. That should pay for shipping and your time to ship me nothing.
"When they are littering the streets and floating in latrines, well, you'll have a problem on your hands, won't you?"
Sorry don't see any dollars coming out the latrines, and no I won't have a problem on my hands. You will though.
"Gold is rare, you see, while dollars are only as rare as those who print them choose to make them."
The turds in your trailer lattrine are rare too, go ahead and market those and see what you get. Sorry money supply is shrinking, you are wacko. Oh yeah, print me up some then. Tmosley says everyone is drowning in dollars but somehow they can't pay their mortgage. hahahahahaha X infinity
$20,000 for an oz of gold? Sounds great.
I've got enough to buy 5,000,000 ounces of gold then. In Zimbabwe dollars, of course. Credit contracted like crazy in Zimbabwe as well, you see. They didn't have a problem overcoming their deflationary pressures by simply paying for all government spending with printed money (there was a time when the purchasing power of the zimbabwe dollar rose to the point that one would buy three US dollars). If you think that won't happen here, well, that's your problem.
Sure you send me your worthless FRN 20,000 or if you choice you can select whatever you want a million, again they are worthless to you... i will gladly donate a gold coin to you for shipping.
"They didn't have a problem overcoming their deflationary pressures by simply paying for all government spending with printed money"
Sure did, credit creation went to virtually zero. So bad imports went to virtually zero.
"If you think that won't happen here, well, that's your problem."
Setting up a strawman argument is what wackos like you do. It's not going to be my problem, you will be lucky to make it out the other side. Yeah, you are going to be rich with your gold coin, you'll buy the whole country with a gold coin.
Now put your FRN where your mouth is, either you agree or disagree that FRNS are worthless, if so send me your FRNS. Very simple even for trailer park moron like yourself.
Hold on...5 trillion are on the way...as much as your wheelbarrow can hold
I am waiting... let me know when the helicopters show up money supplys shrank by another $202B last quarter at annualized rate of minus $808B.
Please let me know when it shows up so you can send me some. I am sure you have some right now, you said it was worth nothing.... just send it to me. If you have $10,000, just send me that, I don't need the $5T all in one lump sum. Seriously I'll take whatever you have.
M3 is falling slowly, M1 is skyrocketing. You will see what happens when the latter overwhelms the former.
M3 and M1 are farts in the wind. M1 is less than 2 trillion dollar dumb ass.
The money supply is total credit market debt dumb ass which is $52T down from almost $53T. You are so stupid you think M1 is whoppie do. Sorry dumb ass but you need to stop speaking on economics, you are about as dumb as that Peter Schiff idiot you follow.
Let me see there is so much money it's coming out the toilets like you explained, well please send me some... what are you waiting for... I can get it by the truck loads... where is at? It's pretty simple idiot. You claim there is so much money, well send me a million send me 2 million, shouldn't be a problem right? Oh but the helicopters are coming to save you and make you rich... hahahahahahahh X infinity.
Oh the wonderful helicopters are coming to save you and make your gold go up so you are rich. Hahahahaha.
"You will see what happens when the latter overwhelms the former."
No, you are an idiot, that is all we will see. There is no freaking out, no helicopters are going to save you. Let me see you are going to be rich with your gold coin but everything else is going to go down. hahahahahahah
You said it's coming out of the turd bowl in your trailer, hey I'll takem anyway you got them... if you have some with Benjamins on them, I'll take those off your hands. It seems like you don't really believe what you wrote
M1 $1705B
Total population of the US 350M (est). that comes to what >$5,000 per person and don't forget it's the reserve currency of the world. Yeah, money is just dropping from the sky. You have no idea WTF you are talking about.
Credit creation for just 2007 was north of $4.5T just for that year you dipshit. But but but M1 went up $200B or whatever so freaking what you moron. That is a fart in the freaking wind to the actually size of the system.
Wherever you think you learned economics needs to be burned down to the ground.
Your comments are usually so depressing, but these last two have me rolling. Many thanks.
Not true, I can wipe my ass with it.
The crash in gold price in Sept 2008 didn't shake me. I was long then and still long now.
Why do they short silver so low? Shouldn't the ratio between gold:silver be much closer than 70+:1? Isn't it historically like 16:1?
That would be an indication that the gold price is too high, not that silver is to low.
Thanks for playing!
Ah, so it's done to make people believe that the price of gold is too high.
Doc,
I have wondered the same thing, as gold silver ratio has been out of whack for a long time. Silver has larger industrial use component to price, which might affect things. Also, I think when big money makes big purchases, there is a tendency to choose gold, as it is easier to store.
Doc,
When Silver was demonetized, it skewed the ratios..........
Contrary to a lot of thought, Silver has been in use as money(was) as long, and far more ubiquitously than Gold.
Gold is the metal of Kings,Slvr is the metal of the common man.
It is so far from the original 15:1 ratio,then around 15:75:1, it's not even funny.
Since it's now more or less considered an Industrial(commodity metal), is why the extreme spread.
Due to the shortage of it compared to Gold, the ratio should still be at least under 50-1.
gotcha, thanks
Silver market is smaller and more easily manipulated. Plus they are playing with paper in CRIMEX, not real silver.
So the price can be whatever the public allows them to get away with.
Gold crashed in 2008? I did not notice . . . guess I got some a little cheaper that month.
Yes, it did crash along with stock and houses. Really the only asset class not to get killed were bonds (US) and USD.
Oh! Yeah, I see the crash -- right there in the chart. That was my buying opportunity.
Take a look, you can see the crash plainly:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1
me too. and not leaving. buying some of the really beaten down gold shares.
me too. and not leaving. buying some of the really beaten down gold shares.
i would just say they dont get deflation ie AUDJPY...
Ha ha ha! Oh gosh that's funny! That's really funny!
Do you write your own material?
Do you?
Because that is so fresh. "Gold-tards".
You know, I've never heard anyone make that type of "word mash-up" joke before. Hmm. You're the first.
You've taken the politically incorrect derogatory word "retard" and put GOLD in front of it. God what a clever, smart person you must be, to come up with a joke like that all by yourself.
And it's so fresh too. Any, any Titanic jokes you want to throw at me too as long as we're hitting these phenomena at the height of their popularity.
God you're so funny!
+10
It had to be said. Thanks Dale. I mean, Rusty.
What?
Who is ths "Dale" of which you speak?
Oh, no.
I hear helicopters.......
UN helicopters!!!
Rusty,
I would ask that you show a little more respect to my future yard man. He can't help it the way he is. He is the doing the best he can with what he has.
Noted.
My bad.
I once called a woman a "vaginatard". That did not go well.
Especially if you had ever expected to visit those nether regions again.
Why, you're such a regular flibbertigibbet, it's like there's
an autogyro in your shirt!
I'm not sure whether to be angry, or oddly turned on by that comment.
.
megatoxic is a new troll, or has he been here before?