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Gold Breaks Out Again, Hits $1,185 As Rising Channel Anticipates DXY 70
Gold now at $1,185. What happens when the DXY hits 70 in a few days?
And the diagonal, soon to be vertical channel
DXY at 70?
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I may be crazy but doesn't it appear that gold is going parabolic? Should gold bugs be a little concerned about this?
I expect to get blasted for this but thats ok.
Why would the Fed keep pumping liquidity when it all goes into gold? It is not serving their purpose of supporting pensions or bolstering tier 1 capital for banks, inflating what they want it to inflate (MBS).
Just to satisfy their masochism? They'll be drawing down liquidity.
Buy cocoa, not silver. It trades crazy no matter the hell happens.
Why would the Fed keep pumping liquidity when it all goes into gold?
--
That would destroy what's left of the housing market. And consumer confidence (consumer spending). Two major sources of tax revenue. Even if they figured out how to keep the same amount of money coming in (yeah right), city/county/state/federal/foreign governments would no longer be able to manage their debts in a strong-dollar/deflationary environment.
Besides, the Fed would just have to reinsert the liquidity to bailout the FHA & FDIC after a short while.
It's no longer a trade but a fundamental bank run. The "best and most easily tradable commodity" aka money is losing confidence due to abuses of government. Couple that with its inherent scarcity and that unless the reserve currency can be meaningfully strengthened (hah!)so much USD will cram into AU that parabolic is right.
The most crowded "trade" in the world is that of trying to survive although none do long term. Drowning men in that instant between sure death and temporary escape will mortgage their souls...or buy gold at whatever offered price.
Here comes backwardation hard, at what price will people dishoard? Probably only a trickle at a time for income. It won't be sufficient to even allow the shorts to cover.
KABOOOOOM.
Observe the 2nd chart above. Does that look like a parabola to you? Because to me it looks like two parallel lines composing a rising channel.
If there's a correction and gold drops back to the low 1100s, but then resumes its slow grind upwards, then that should be confirmation that you failed geometry.
I am Chumbawamba.
Actually, I have an advanced degrees in mathematics and engineering, aced geometry. However, I have noted that while the channel over the last month is diagonal, over the last four days the curve is best fit by a curve that is exponential.
@JizzBang ok professor you're right. short some gold.
GLD looks parabolic since half way through June until now.
GLD??? Oh, you mean another FIAT paper chasing paper promises.
Think COUNTERPARTY RISK.... do you really trust that these ETFs have the gold they claim and are not leasing it out or creating/forming/leveraging some other paper gold on top of their paper gold. As an example, GLD can hold NOT GOOD bars for proper delivery to the market and they do not insure their gold holding. Add to that, there are many other serious situations one should consider before choosing GLD or other ETFs.
Read GLD's 10-k filing at www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/10k_Sept08.pdf and pay special attention to pages 54 to 62.
Bottom line, if you want to invest in gold i would do as GLD's largest shareholder did months ago.... they sold their GLD holdings are purchased physical metal and took delivery. In this day and age counterparty risk is to be avoided imho.
I am not one damn bit concerned about it. It is behaving EXACTLY as expected, although the rise is a bit slower than anticipated [fraudulent massive naked short positions on Crimex might exlain it though].
Also, I've switched over to silver and silver mining companies, as I can afford a lot more of each, thoughts anyone?
Check out Revett Minerals, RVM on the tsx-v, mostly silver reserves and resources, just waiting for the final appeal to their new deposit to be squashed
My value lottery play that has paid my +130% to date: Great Panther Resources (junior silver miner)
I've been in that trade for ahwile know expecting (aside from fundamentals) exactly your sentiment to take hold with the average investor looking for value outside of gold. I expect silver to make gold moves look weak in comparison....very soon---63:1 ratio right now is way wack!
Whizbang,
I have these, do your research!!!Have fun..
http://www.silvercorpmetals.com/
http://www.redbackmining.com/s/Home.asp
http://www.edrsilver.com/s/Home.asp
http://capstonemining.com/s/Home.asp
thnx
Just don't forget to allocate a little to Parkerized steel, lead, brass, and copper, just in case it really hits the fan.
How is the job thing going? I know you had some action out of the US.
Did you get on the PM ride?
I did the majority of my gold buying last year at sub $850, couldn't resist picking up a handful of NGC MS 70 Buffalos a few weeks ago at @ $1120 (delivered) though my wife thought it was a bit bonkers. I delayed taking the project management job with a Petrobas contractor to go work a pre-existing obligation in Malaysia. Just got word yesterday that the company which was taking delivery (in Texas) of the two ships, has put the purchase on an indefinite hold.
The Brazil position is still only tentative so I am well and truly unemployed for the time being. Offshore Oil & Gas is really tumultuous right now, as much as I have ever seen it. I don't know if it's due to issues in the credit markets or just total skittishness to commit capital to and mid to long term projects. I am positive that we will be pumping all that goo out of the ground at some point, so my long term prospects are good. I have totally given up on trying to find a replacement position in environmental research, which is what I was doing. Thank you very much for asking!
Sounds like I don't need to worry about you too much. Your work background sounds interesting/diverse and the situation complex. I bet I could get a real peak oil education from you.
I did my first buy in @ $800, plus commish ($870). I too got 5 bufallos, total $1170 each. Looks like I cleared that commission today and made $20 or so! Great minds think alike. Just got 100 oz silver too. I may be a fool, but I don't see how this ends well.
I am following a series someone posted here, The day the dollar died. Decent speculative fiction. If you are interested, click the link for the series and then scroll backwards to the first entry. There are 4 so far.
http://johngaltfla.com/blog3/2009/11/18/the-day-the-dollar-died/
Peace
Armor-piercing tungsten cores. Everybody's doing it!
http://www.outlawperformance.com/uploads/AP_core_tracer.jpg
ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS SILVER HAS MORE UPSIDE TO OUT PERFORM GOLD ON THE LONGER TERM, DUE TO IT'S SCARCITY. MOST JOE BLOWS CAN'T CRACK BACK ON TOO MANY OZ. OF GOLD @ $1200.00 PER .WHEREAS $20.00- $25.00 PER. IS NOT TOO HARD A NUT TO CRACK. BY THE TIME THE REAL" PANIC "BEGINS THE DEMAND WILL BE OUTRAGEOUS..... GET PHYSICAL
"MONEY IS THE GOD OF THIS WORLD,AND ROTHSCHILD IS HIS PROPHET"
BENJAMIN DISRAELI
kudos to you, have faith in yourself. good move IMO
I think Uranium makes more sense here, especially when it looks more realistic that we are heading towards global warfare. I mean its the country who can produce the most nukes that will be the last one standing.
Yeah, because nukes are something that are going to be used over and over again.
When you glassify the surface of the world 3 times over, I'm not sure what that additional warhead gets you.
"How did that end of the world trade do anyway?"
Great. Until I took my paper winnings and tried to trade with my crispified neighbors and the whole world smelled like burnt toast and tar.
My gold is hot to the touch too, and glows at night.
Yes, because once the nukes fall, you'll be able to call your broker to ask about your dividend.
uranium will be a good play, when they start to build more fast breeder reactors. most bang per buck, energy wise.
It doesn't take a much to figure this one out and what is coming. Looking forward to seeing the movie 'The Road' this weekend for a preview..........
(Also FULLY posted in gen discussion area):
The bankruptcy of the United States is now certain
LINK:http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/3455/Porter_Stansberry
From Porter Stansberry in the S&A Digest:
KEY SNIPS:
....It's one of those numbers that's so unbelievable you have to actually think about it for a while... Within the next 12 months, the U.S. Treasury will have to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt. And that's not counting any additional deficit spending, which is estimated to be around $1.5 trillion. Put the two numbers together. Then ask yourself, how in the world can the Treasury borrow $3.5 trillion in only one year? That's an amount equal to nearly 30% of our entire GDP. And we're the world's biggest economy. Where will the money come from?
....When governments go bankrupt it's called "a default." Currency speculators figured out how to accurately predict when a country would default. Two well-known economists - Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti - published the secret formula in a 1999 academic paper. That's why the formula is called the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. The rule states: To avoid a default, countries should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term foreign debt maturities. The world's largest money management firm, PIMCO, explains the rule this way: "The minimum benchmark of reserves equal to at least 100% of short-term external debt is known as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. Greenspan-Guidotti is perhaps the single concept of reserve adequacy that has the most adherents and empirical support."
....According to the U.S. Treasury, $2 trillion worth of debt will mature in the next 12 months. So looking only at short-term debt, we know the Treasury will have to finance at least $2 trillion worth of maturing debt in the next 12 months. That might not cause a crisis if we were still funding our national debt internally. But since 1985, we've been a net debtor to the world. Today, foreigners own 44% of all our debts, which means we owe foreign creditors at least $880 billion in the next 12 months - an amount far larger than our reserves.
As all of our debt is in dollars, the u.s. won't go bankrupt. Eventually, it will cost 400,000$ to buy a sandwich, but we will not go "bankrupt"
Agree... unless a default and currency reset with PM backed $.
As all of our debt is in dollars, the u.s. won't go bankrupt. Eventually, it will cost 400,000$ to buy a sandwich, but we will not go "bankrupt"
Sure, one sandwich will cost you US$400,000. But, here is the thing: no one will be able to afford it anyway, since most US citizens will be unemployed.
Inflation is all well and good, but if you are not making any money, you are still not making any money.
And don't even think about selling your products outside of the US, since, by the time that sandwich passes the US$100,000 mark, the world economy will be in the dumps as well. Expect hard-line protectionism to be the order of the day any time now.
Oh, and one last thing: how are you going to pay for gas when the price reaches US$1,000,000 per gallon? Will there be anyone left to even sell gas to the USA?
at that point we will be a full blown socialism, with transportation, healthcare, food, and housing provided by the government. All gold, oil, guns and ammunition will be property of the state.
In that case it's state versus people.
And people always win that one.
I am Chumbawamba.
power-word.
That's a nice thought, but demonstrably untrue across thousands of countries over thousands of years.
However, our populace is well-armed, which will help.
I say we allow them to confiscate it one 150 grain boattail SST at a time.
I recommend you spend some time over at the InfoWars.com forums to see what your average Joe, who considers himself 'awake', thinks about that statement. Lotta Alex Jones fans out there.
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
ok does the word default sound better to you? either way-its all bad.
"Default" is just another word for bankruptcy - for entire countries.
exactly! (and to be clear my reply was directed to whiz--you were spot on)
All I am saying is that the united states will not go bankrupt (default). The dollar is the world reserve currency. We will inflate our way out of our debts before we default. If the U.S. defaults, we take the whole world down with us. It simply will not be allowed to happen.
right:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM
Call it whatever you want. The end result is the US fails and much pain to the people. But at least then we'll get to decorate those light poles in DC with pretty politicians. Just in time for the holidays!
I am Chumbawamba.
This was of course, in no way, a credible threat. Politicians are fake and unattractive and no one would want to use them as decorations.
+1 ROFL
If all you're goin' on is my confession, forget it, I'm simply not credible.
World default will not happen. Instead look for a global day of Jubilee.
I have predictedt his over and over again. I feel it will happen. At what level the Jubilee occurs, I am not yet sure of. Will it just be the governments? Corporations? Banks?
The only thing I do know...it will NOT include the people. We are fucked.....in perpetuity.
I really dig Corbett McCormick, but reading that book a year and a half ago put a mighty large lump in my throat and tum tum. Errr, thanks for the reminder, good goin dude.
"I really dig Corbett McCormick"
LOL
Will the following please go f yourselves:
1. Alan greenspan
2. Paul krugman
3. Shalom bernanke
4. Any other Keynsian morons
Regards,
Austrian school of economics
the ghostbusters crossing the beams pic is glorious. nice touch TD.
+1
"I'm fuzzy on the whole good-bad thing. What do you mean by bad?"
We are all Keynsian morons now.
Notice all the 'good' economic news releases today, which was timed perfectly to herd the Sheeple towards the malls and retailers for Black Friday.
How high does gold have to go before the CB's end the QE nonsense? My guess is $1400. If we get there Ben B will have to fold his cards.
The markets determine monetary policy, not central banks.
Let's just say that this would be very disruptive. Red alert....
thank you for your insights Bruce. Always read every word you write and your work and willingness to share your experience is greatly appreciated.
Let me fix that for you Bruce.
"The market determines monetary policy, the central banks manipulate it"
There you go....thats better.
Dan Norcini over at Jim Sinclair's website made an interesting observation last week. He noted that the $1200.00 region corresponds to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire bear market decline in gold over the past 30 years. Thus, since there's a strong tendency for markets to move to their next level of resistance or support, gold would next target a move to the $1750.00 area.
Interest rate Black Swan? Oh yes!
several months ago some commenter on this site said that when DXY hit 71 that was it. Was it you Bruce ? Do you have any thoughts on the impact of a 71 level ? Will Helicopter Ben have to autogyro to the Old Fed Reserve Bankers Home ? Will this precipitate the actual collapse of the Biggest of the Big Zombie Banks? will timmy g regain his courage and zest for life by joing the Dancing with the Stars Loser Brigade ?
testing support here at 74.50.....then on to test 71 area.....then see you at a five handle
74.47
testing...testing...
is this thing on?
...oh yeah. It is indeed on.
74.24
testing...testing...
Gold $1190.60
testing...testing...
Meet me on the other side of Armageddon?
The PTBs will attempt, do their damnedest, literally, to prevent anything TOO negative from reaching the public at large until after Christmas.
They want to extract every last bit of money, cash, credit, what-have-you from the folk before the fecal matter hits the a.c. unit.
The US Mint (new announcement) has suspended production of American Gold and Silver Eagle coins. They MIGHT start producing again in December.
These are the bullion pieces, NOT the proof and uncirculated ones they stopped earlier this year, in October. I would NOT place any wagers on them starting up later in the year, although they could suprprise me.
So if you want those for Christmas, or whatever, check your local coin dealers and snap them up!
Imagine our banker friends having respect on a holy day commemmorating a great master loosing the slaves. The height of hypocracy, ignore all the law and moral mandates but bow down when mutual gift giving to celebrate looks to firm up their bottom line.
"It could be Krishna, Amaterasu, or Ahuru Mazda--I don't care so long as I makes me Ka-ching"
I have some thoughts about gold and hopefully somebody here who knows more about this than me can set me straight. Anyway, I keep seeing people commenting on financial sites that they are doing just great because they’ve invested in gold recently and I have a question about that. I’m sure that many people who own gold actually go somewhere and physically purchase it and have the actual gold. But I don’t believe that’s always the case. If all you actually have is a line in an investment portfolio somewhere that says you bought x amount of gold, how can you be sure that you are the only one who actually owns this gold and the same gold hasn’t been sold a few times over? We’ve already seen rampant naked short selling where stock certificates are never actually delivered and the market gets flooded with counterfeit stock. So how can we be sure something similar isn’t happening with gold?
There is obviously a huge demand for gold right now and the dollar is doing so hot. Now the dollar tanking is deliberate to a great extent since some inflation allows debts to be paid off easier, but the oligarchs are playing a risky high wire act because they don’t want the dollar to tank too much or inflation to be too high. The banksters are doing everything in their power to keep the system afloat and make sure there aren’t bank runs. So flooding the market with fool’s gold would seem to serve their purposes – they can profit from brokering the growing number of trades in gold and at the same time it keeps the price of gold from rising too high and the dollar from sinking too fast.
Just speculation on my part but I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if some of these gold investors wind up holding pyrite instead.
So is that way out in left field? Is there a way to figure out what the value of the dollar should be if it weren't being manipulated so much and then figure out where the price of gold should be based on the more accurate valuation of the dollar?
Welcome to the blog. Get an identity it is easier to talk to you. It is not hard to do. Most of what you have said is taken for granted as probably true on this site. There are many thoughts about what the accurate valuation really is. More of the bugs will be along in a minute and I bet they can plug you in to some good stuff to read that they have easy.
From my recently visited cites:
This one blew my mind....
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1336090735&play=1
http://www.fofoa.blogspot.com/
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/1124.html
Will be nice to meet you.
Thanks for the welcome. I've actually been reading here for several months now and have commented a few times just using "anonymous". Been meaning to sign up for a userid so I just did. Thanks for the links as well.
Ultimately, with all this turmoil and confusion and impending, uncertain doom, you have to ask yourself, "What am I going to do about this? What is my plan to make it through, no matter what?"
The answer, IMHO, is...get delivery! If it ain't in your hand then you're smart and you've already found a good hiding spot, like your backyard. If it's neither one of those two options (hand, hiding spot) you're paying a fee for something you'll never see! There are multiple claims on bullion, that supposedly exist, and all the clients are content to pay a fee for it to be safeguarded for them.
Get it sent to your chosen address, pronto! And if you have a 'stash' that is more than your average precious metals investor I recommend you trade in one of your Maple Leafs for a Glock and feed it on a weekly basis. You gotta stay above room temperature if you want to spen' yo munneee!
The cardinal rule of investing in gold and silver are: "pay cash and take posession". Learn it, love it, live it.
"Don't Cross the streams"
"Why?"
"It would be bad"
No worries, the dollar is set up for the biggest rally ever, crushing gold, housing, the stock market, and the banking sector. Oh, wait. NOT!
the bankers are the house. they are the riggers of the game. Antal Fekete( www.professorfekete.com lots of good reading there) said " for the entire modern era of gold production there has been about 2500 tons of annual production and all of it has dissapeared into private hoards without the price going up. For any commodity with such demand pressures the price would go up but gold never wanted for a buyer." So who are these private hoarders that have been massively long for 30 or 40 years. All the currencies will crash, whatever the new currencies will be (Amero whatever) will confiscate the remaining savings of the middle class. It will be like the revaluation of the ruble 100old:1new with no change in retail pricing. asset prices will crumble, maybe there is even a second new currency because the first one sucks. But in any event the guys with the gold will come in and buy the world and those people with debts will become debt slaves. this is an engeneered take down. keeps the bankers in power too because they keep saying " we didn't see it coming". when comex defaults on delivery methinks 25-3500 veryquickly. ebay will become the unofficial spot market priceing mechanism. the higher the price of gold goes eventually the lower asset values crash because these are distress sales with so few buyers. the greater the advantage to the purchasers who know what they are doing.
anybody still believe the banks/insiders are short. the only reason to be short now is to bankrupt a public company after looting the till and stick the taxpayer with the mess.
yes, problem-reaction-solution = crash-consolidate-NWO..........
Somewhat related to "good news before the holiday shopping":
If I see another commercial touting stores openening at midnight so you can get your shopping in am going to puke. One commercial even had a lady working out on a stairmaster so she would be ready to wade into the shopping mall. Just unreal. These commercials seem obscene with unemployment over 10% (or 17% depends how you look at it). Maybe people might get a clue as to how retarded all this buying of junk is. Maybe not.
I never shop at Wal*Mart. I've never gone shopping the day after Thanksgiving. Now, I think I'll take a drive out there on Friday, sit in my car and check out the American "consumer". The urge is similar to wanting to go to the beach during a hurricane.
It would be funny if the only stores getting swamped on friday were home depot, guns-r-us, and the gas station.
Never underestimate the gullibility and stupidity of the American shopper. My contrarian take is that we might actually see decent sales numbers this holiday glutton season, because maybe people have been saving their credit card balances and cash reserves for one last great splurge before they turn out the lights for good.
I am Chumbawamba.
Hahahahaha we love gold!
Margins are going to be thin, I think Walmart has already slashed toy prices 80% across the board. Make it up on volume I guess.
Maybe they just figure from here on out it's all a final liquidation sale.
something big is coming
India now wants to buy the rest of the IMF's gold
Russia is now negotiating with Brazil to conduct native currency transactions...continuing a trend
A new Bretton Woods is coming...you've got to be able to feel it. We have to source $3.5T in debt next year, this is absolutely staggering and the fact remains that foreign nations are not buying any new debt. The dollar is being prepared for a sunset as reserve currency...all the signs point to that.
I see NO WAY in hell, no way possible, that this "priceless" dollar that the deflationist idiots like Douchinger and his TF jester PikaSteff fantasize about comes out of this. We're talking the paper of a State that is inarguably BANKRUPT.
We are staring sovereign default in the FACE here, literally. How do they do $3.5T in a year? It's they either print it or they lower the amount by cutting the government by 50%. There are your two options. Even if they stop the gov completely, the $2T has to be rolled. I think we're close to being completely done.
I posted elsewhere, when this rally wave ends, the US will collapse...it's all steaming into fucking oblivion right before our eyes.
If I want to buy gold, where should I buy it? Coins or bars?
Coins, coins, coins. Smaller, cheaper, easier to conceal and hide. Much easier to throw in a backpack if you need leave in a hurry. Even a small volume of gold coins can represent a lot of worth. Not to mention that tungsten rumor everyone has been talking about.
From a reputable dealer only. And that pretty much depends where you are.
India wants to buy remaining gold from IMF. Is this the reason for latest breakout in gold.
http://www.infowars.com/india-could-buy-rest-of-imf-gold-on-offer/
DXY
74.277Well fellas and ladies.
It was a good run while it lasted.
I wonder.
1000 years from now, who will write, "The Decline and Fall of the American Empire"?
Will they write it on paper, a computer of some type, clay tablets, or will it be told through a pictorial cave painting?
I wonder.
Didn't you read above where the DXY is meaningless?
(Means several thousand dollars in my pocket today, but that's beside the point, I guess).
Handed down orally Rusty. At the tell, round the fire, at night.
"Rusty, Rusty, will you tell us the story of the decline and fall of the American Empire."
"Please! Please!"
"Again."
Gold - 1188.30
Silver - 18.83
$1190.00 & counting
DXY 74.26 Lower than whale manure..
Someone know how to drive this fucker?
I'll wager Benjamin Dover can drive.
If the crash occurs in the form of US default, you'll need guns, ammo and survival and barter gear for here, and hopefully some foreign currency elsewhere. Gold, sure, but you'll wish you had a lot more than that. Guy pointing a gun at your head will just take your gold and laugh. Gotta finish up that Irish citizenship application. Not saying it's better, just a place to go when TEOTWAWKI hits.
Still think predicting how this goes is very difficult. Many paths can be followed.
Difficult to predict? No sh*t, Sherlock.
Above all, you need skills. Skills that are in demand. Education is your best bet. If you are doctor - a good one - you will always be able to barter your skills, for instance.
Guns are all well and good, but when everyone have them, and you have been shot, a doctor is probably what you want... Not more guns & ammo.
Fixing cars, houses, roofs, plumbing, knowing enough to rig up a generator to produce a bit of electricity, or knowing how to raise chickens, or cleaning up water to make it drinkable are all skills you could barter for other things. Provided, of course, the level of societal breakdown you are expecting actually arrives. Like you said, many paths can be followed.