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Is Gold In A Bubble? A Visual Aid
The traditional response by all septics who see spot inches away from $1,300 (in addition to you can't eat it of course) is that it is in a bubble. Where do they get the basis for this conclusion? Irrelevant. It is up. It must be in a bubble. So for all who actually do care about factual justifications, here is a case by case comparison of all other assets that have previously been in a bubble compared with the levels achieved by gold and silver in the recent move (which courtesy of the race to the bottom, or two bottoms as we will shortly highlight courtesy of John Taylor, will go much higher, as devaluation on an absolute basis relative to something tangible means gold has only one way to go). So courtesy of Sharelynx, here is gold/silver vs 50 historical bubbles.
h/t Eric
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All I know is govt is in a bubble and it will be interesting to see how that works out.
Bingo.
Deflation.
Interesting chart of manias that proves nothing.
Gold down $9.90 so far also proves nothing.
The rationalization that only 10% of Americans own gold means higher prices
may be another way of observing only 3% of Americans may now have wealth left.
The biggest argument for higher gold prices is the trend of continuing new highs.
A 50% correction to $649 would still be a bull market...
Not true.
Gold is going up for fundamental reasons, not because the price is going up. Most people are waiting for a pullback to buy, not for prices to go up.
and if we add the inverse value of the dollar (buying power) since 1913 it went from $1.00 to .03 so what's the percent of that bubble?
Which means there's room to grow and room to blow.
Considering what every nation (or group of nations) seems to be doing to it's currency, I suspect that the room to grow scenario will play out before Gold blows up and deflates.
One thing I know for certain is volatility is in the cards. Gold is the enemy of fiat. Thus Gold has strong and desperate enemies.
One thing I know for certain -- CD
you don't know anything for certain, you just think you do. self loving husband.
Hmm. 5th day without drugs and alchahol.
I think she has a crush on me like a 3rd grader. What other reason would she have for posting numerous insults under many of my comments?
Wait, on second thought don't answer that.
I don't know it's just weird. She is generally erratic but she just woke up, doesn't show any signs of drugs and alchahol use and started attacking. It's her though. Just a little change. The thing is she isn't protecting herself. She's protecting someone she thinks you hurt without good cause.
Well let me know who that is and I'll sincerely apologize.
On the other hand, she rode my ass when she was Velobabe. This is just a continuation of the same ole same old.
Oh ok. She's like an ex stripper who socked away a bunch of money and likes to pretend to be looking for financial geniuses to help manage her porfolio but really just wants to cyber them. And when they won't play ball she has a little panty twist fit.
ok i like you again, not so much with cog head. absolutely never any kind of a crush on you CD, respect you though, a lot a wHOLE lot. but your so, G A Y.
vulcan love your "cyber them". genius, pure genius. will you fck me, cyberly? no really cyber sex in wiki, i don't know how to do it, but i think i would be terrific at this one 2. i have never really talked dirty to anyone over the phone yet in my life and i am old. can you teach me. you B my new stud boy, just not so comfortable with your pronunciation of name nor what your picture is. got to know your time zone first before i start to do the "M" word while i think of U. see the cheeks just talked dirty and looked dangerous and bad. you, not so much, can you help me out a little with these sexual innuendos?
ps i do steal straws now a days, it is really fun. i don't resell them like marla did with the jeans she stole. i figure it is pretty innocent for all the years i never used straws with beverages that i purchased. justified.
Ok. I don't want to talk for other people but I do just want to throw out a warning of how I might see things going. The regular posters on zero hedge share thoughts at an intimate level. There's a sexual component to it as we try to satisfy each others understanding needs. This is why people like MsCreant so much. She is a true teacher and a true thinker. You can get intimate with her and take it right to the point where you want to lay her down on a bed and screw her brains out while she's holding her legs just the right amount of open and you're squeezing her ass till it nearly pops. Acknowledge that level of intimacy and put the brakes on it because it's not approprate to the sanctity of her marriage. You see sharing thoughts and ideas is like mating and it's like driving a car. It takes application of engine power, brake inputs, steering inputs. It takes just as much energy to shut down a thought or direction as it does to achieve it. Zero hedge has become a sort of race car intent on driving the tires of misunderstanding to molten goo. It has several drivers, several people steering, different brake inputs. People just bounce around and it flows.
You're not in the car and you're standing on the track. And I'm afraid it's going to come barreling down you and nobody is going to touch the brakes. Somebody is going to get tired and frustrated and your psyche is going to get shoved through a high density fin count radiator. All your advances are unwanted, unresponded to and unwarranted.
http://thatwillbuffout.com/2010/09/14/funny-car-videos-you-can-pick-my-j...
I thoroughly enjoyed that post, Heph.
Strength is relative. I think we are seeing quite clearly now that they are literally paper tigers (origami, anyone?) in the face of gold's ascent. There is literally nothing they can do to lower the price without destroying the US at a minimum.
And you think the sociopaths would let this stop them? Or even slow them down?
+1. I am one of those people (but I am buying almost weekly anyway).
Thats AMAZING! Wow!! You must be so pleased your buying it 'almost weekly' at these CRAZY CHEAP multiples! The NPV is through the roof on Au. So again, all the best to you and your speculative investment.
It's 11:36am eastern time. Gold is at $1196.30...Do you know where your gold is?
IMHO... a characteristic of bubbles is that they develop rather quickly... a slow move up in gold that has occured over ten years is not yet in the bubble phase...and if it continues a steady plod upward I would suggest that it is mirroring the decline of paper money.
Good luck to all.
Yep, kicking myself for missing 1180 :(
"Interesting chart of manias that proves nothing."
Agreed, just looking at the percentages does nothing to tell what's actually happening. Take Cisco for example. It's in the graph as a bubble when it shouldn't be. Cisco created four revolutions in networking, dominating the market each time, so most of it's "bubble percentage" came from "gorilla growth", as it were. But it was a primary target in the tech bubble. It would be more accurate to measure the tech bubble itself. Gold during the last bubble was similar. It was only during the end of the 80's ending runnup that investors greed paniced into gold, causing a bubble on the tail end of a real revaluation. A simple percentage doesn't reveal the last asymptotic climb (race toward heaven) that is the hallmark signal of a late stage bubble.
Are you sure that the gold run-up in the 80s was not due to fundamentals rather than "greed"? Don't forget that a fundamental for gold is fear and you can add uncertainty to that. A gold fundamental is a goofy government, and we certainly have that in full force.
When interest rates are 10 to 20%, i might think about selling gold so until then, fuck it.
Remember Gold Expiry is this comming Monday September 27, 2010.
If the masses beat the takedown before and through expiry I think this may be Gold/Silver' shining moment.
Pain is at $1250 and Maxx pain is at $1200
so you can see the anti metals crowd has every reason to take em down. (You would be cheatin the Dollar after all)
See ya Monday !
Expect anything between now and then............
No, this is Max Payne.
http://www.imdb.com/video/imdb/vi3542614041/
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0467197/
The bigger they are, the harder they fall. The nation state bubble will burst all over everyone and be a terrible mess
Still waiting for that Dow retest of the Aug 1982 lows of 802
and gold retest of Dec 1999 lows of $255...?
"and gold retest of Dec 1999 lows of $255...?"
Not unless you can magically reprice everything to 1999 levels.
Brings a whole new meaning to the term "money shot"...
Yes!
And gold is now the government "Anti-bubble"
Let's coin and circulate this phrase. That should be a good response to gold haters.
There already exists the term "anti-bubble" in physics, so no need to coin it.
Bubbles are something of a hobby of mine.
FOFOA: Gold: The Ultimate Un-Bubble
Thank you for clarifying my point.
"All I know is govt is in a bubble and it will be interesting to see how that works out."
Well put! We need this bubble to pop - for the sake of our country!! The political class is perpetuating the ruin of our once great [and still pretty good] nation. If we don't put a stop to the run-away growth of government, we're as good as finished. The arogance of our representatives is sickening. Most politicians have lost sight of the fact they work for us. We need to fire the lot of them!
One thing that bothers me about these discussions is that the 2000 price is always taken as if that was 'fair price'. What if that was artificially low? What if it was just an absolute bargain, and it should have been priced at $600/oz?
Then there's the other annoyance, of course, that all the morons who couldn't spot a bubble in dot-com equities, couldn't spot a bubble in housing, and now can't spot a bubble in treasuries now tell us gold DEFINITELY is a bubble.
That's right.
The unmolested market low for gold was probably around $400. Gold would have never gone that low if it was not for Gordon Brown dumping half the UK gold with announced sales.
$400 to $1250 over a ten year period is fuck all nothing.
How Goldman Sachs screwed Ghana
"But in May 1999, the Treasury of the United Kingdom decided to sell off 415 tons of its gold reserves. With all that gold flooding the world market, the price of gold began to decline. By August 1999, the price of gold had fallen to $252/ounce, the lowest it had been in 20 years."
"In September 1999 (one month later), 15 European Banks with whom Goldman had professional relationships made a unanimous surprise announcement that all 15 would stop selling gold on world markets for 5 years. The announcement immediately drove up gold prices to $307/ounce, and by October 6, it had risen to $362/ounce."
http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/artikel.php?ID=180487
it's almost as if... they work in criminal collusion
This "event" was what got me looking at Gold back then. I had an old $5,000 savings bond bought for me when I was a very young child mature at that time. I looked at the price of Gold and said "Why not?" since the savings bond money was "found money" to me.
With some other money I had on hand, I bought 20 Gold Eagles (I bought the Eagles at $294 per) which I still own today. One of the few times a "Why not" has worked out for me and the only time I've ever (nearly) bottom ticked anything. :>)
your just think your so important even as a very young child you were very very important. damn, you know how to call everything. have you ever made a mistake, i mean kathy chamberlin type mistakes? YIKES, you probably would be in the ground.
That's the second seemingly anti-CD comment I've seen today from Kathy. Are you kidding around or genuinely stalking CD?
Oh, she's stalking alright. This is a common occurrence with Kathy aka Velobabe.
See my comment above. I think she has a crush on me. Isn't that how 3rd graders show they like someone one? By punching, kicking, biting and insulting?
Gully Foyle also hates....er...loves me. And a few others. I seem to bring out the best in some people. Love is a very splendid thing. :>)
My constant discussion about our psychology really bothers some people. It's almost like they feel I'm talking directly to them. Which of course I'm not.
Love Bitchez!
(Sorry, couldn't resist)
.
Wow, I guess you thought Little Red Riding Hood was about fashion accessories. Your reading comprehension is really REALLY bad if that is what you got out of his comment. That, or you're bitter about something, and acting like a child because of it.
are those yours ? was in cold outside when you took that pick ?
mmmm more then a hand full.
Speaking on behalf of morons everywhere, sitting on duffs and positions, we saw the bubbles in Dot.com, housing, Mississippi, Railroads, South Pacific, Tulip Bulbs and Utilities.
We also recall gold outperformed everything but silver the last decade, and zero coupon bonds almost every other asset since 1981, echoing what happened from 1929 to 1941.
When Voyager was launched, they put in it a golden record.
That also keeps flying higher and higher, further and further away.
THERE JUST AIN'T NO LIMIT TO WHERE IT CAN GO!!
INTERSTELLAR GOLD PRICES!!!
WHOEHOE!!
It can't be in a bubble because people are still buying it. /sarcasm off.
what people are you taliking about ?
The only people I know that are buying is members of this forum.
The Ecuadorean waiter last night started buying yesterday. He's not phased by the high price. My dinner guest sold in 1980 and won't buy because of the commission cost. I've got that reduced down to a minimum. I don't care up or down (or at least "down by less than several hundred dollars) frankly. My kids love to touch and feel the metal. Means much more to them than linen or debit cards. I wish I had the scales off my eyes when I was 6 like them.
Started collecting silver dollars in 1959 for similar reasons.
Also loved the rich sound.
Back then a few circulated and we could get them from a bank in exchange for silver certificate paper dollars.
Since 1963, the Federal Reserve Notes and zinc money were not such a store of value as gold, copper and silver coins.
http://www.coinflation.com/
But now maybe the dollar, like the South, will rise again from 79.56 to 115:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd
my aunt, who is 89 years old and pretty close to senile, has been bugging the staff at her nursing home to buy her some gold.
if you think gold hasn't reached the shoeshine boy level yet, you're out of touch.
doesn't mean it won't double from here, but everyone is talking about it.
I'm not buying here. It's a risk, but i'm a gambler.
It would seem that impaired mental faculties tend to run in your family.
My god, you're an idiot. Someone with age related dementia doesn't know ANYTHING about current conditions. What that means, if anything, was that gold was in a bubble 60 years ago. Or that she really liked gold, or that she wanted to look pretty for her prom.
You're no gambler, VW. You're a loser. You see, gamblers know when to hold 'em, which you are not doing. They also know when to fold 'em, which if you had ever had any, I might forgive you for doing right now, and perhaps taking a well deserved vacation, or going on some other consumption binge. But you haven't. All you have done is lose purchasing power by holding dollars. No-one know what the future holds, which is exactly why you should ALWAYS own at least SOME gold. You don't have to go all in, like the gold bugs here. Just cost average, and keep a physical position large enough to counter a loss in purchasing power in your currency or other investments.
"I'm not buying here. It's a risk, but i'm a gambler"
You're no gambler. You're a wannabe troll.
In school at CU with JB? You haven't lived long enough to have enough experience to write a bad novel.
The gold train is on the move and you are standing on the platform, waving goodby. Adios and good luck to you.
where is the calorie count?
Yep, looks like Gold is in a bubble, stand back, this baby is going to pop in about 10 years.
I don't agree that gold will drop the same way it did in 1980.
The reason is that keynesianism will die this time and Austrian economics will probably take its place(not so in the 80's). When Austrian economics is the dominant school of thought then the average person will have a better understanding of gold.
I hope you are right about Austrian economics.
And you bring to mind one of my favorite quotes:
Ludwig von Mises
That period "when nobody is prepared to acknowledge it" can reasonably be expected to have a very high suck-factor.
This analysis is missing something, and that is, how far is gold up from its theoretical regression to mean trend. My own view / analysis suggests it was priced too low at its bottom, so is gold really up that much? A better analysis would be to note how far each bubble was up from its theoretical fair price versus GDP, etc.
When is the starting time and price for each item listed in the above data? How long does each bubble last? Comparisons to mean would also be interesting.
Reversion to the 'mean' is not possible when the 'mean' is a moving target, as are fiat currencies, and no statistician can quantify inflation/deflation precisely when some asset classes are moving up and some down.
Rocky is right...gold is pricing in uncertainty and fear. Gold will continue to do so until some sanity is returned to world finiancial markets and uncertainty and fear subside. That could be a very long way down the road.
'Tis all about fundamentals. And some of those are quite subjective.
Technically speaking, rising wedge formation in gold is underway, pull back to 1050-1125 likely. Then onward and upward as gov'ts continues to destroy civilization.
Ah, the good ole Johnny Bravo Rising Wedge.
Nope. The Comex is broken. Throw your TA out the window.
The Comex is broken. Throw your TA out the window.
Promises, promises. Are you sure?
Bravo was sure about the wedge at $1225
Somebody jammed the wedge up his ass. I'm sure his creepiness will be back, but I appreciate the break.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJP2PH8WKaI
Look, what the F do I know...I'm just an idiot banging on a keyboard from my bunker in Kansas. That said, the signs are there. The price action over the past six weeks, led by silver, is the smoke creeping under the door from the fire within.
A most excellent music choice.
Here's hoping for a...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pc3OnSQc48s&feature=related
You in a missile Silo Turd?
PM short squeeze going on, get ready to bail out JPM, as they are loosing their ass on silver short contracts...
This is not me. Or is it? My middle name is "Ed", however...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tht-Th7HnXA&feature=related
Re The EE:Its going to get a lot uglier for them, too.
They'll probably be able to lie/deceive/cheat/obfuscate their way out of this month. They will not be able to escape November into December.
Lets say that preservation of their ammo (regardless how much that is) is their main priority now. They are in a tough place.
If they drop the price, out come the dip buyers. If they raise the price, they panic everybody who is worried about missing the train, and keep gold in the headlines to attract new interest.
If I were the EE, I would be motivated to keep the price in a very long & gentle decline; it would help defer every kind of buying action while the buyers all wait to see how low it could go. Having said that, recent price action suggests that this is not their strategy, else they have lost control.
Any other views? Assuming they can indeed control the price, what would their price tactics be, if not the gentle decline?
Of course, if the Arabs, Chinese et al, are actually buying at the comex & LBMA, then that would change everything. I can't see why they would do that though; they can't buy there without creating higher prices for themselves. ANY other source of supply (mines, refiners, scrap) would be preferable for them, as they could freely buy without ramping up the spot price.
My understanding of the LBMA & COMEX raids, is for the big players to take delivery of gold that was already bought previously.
Who wouldn't want Gold and Silver to be 50 times higher in price?
Those who are still accumulating, and who have a long way to go before they reach their targets in weight.
This probably includes all the big players vis a vis states (China, Russia, India, the Arabic states).
They want to accumulate at the lowest possible price.
You cannot buy TONNES at the comex or LBMA, at the spot price. Instead, you just explode the price.
So it is not in their interests to buy at the comex or LBMA; they will be happy to work with the suppression scheme as it benefits them too.
They will buy instead, from any available source of supply other than that, but at that comex price.
Those who we are told are currently emptying the Comex & LBMA of their stocks, are existing owners of that gold who want possession of it.
Even us ZH'ers thank the mighty JPM for the discount, when we are in buying mode.
They are not concerned about prices. They are concerned about exposing the lbma for not having any gold. Which once they crack them will give them pricing power destroy the bank of international settlements for the sham that it is and destroy every fiat currency based on 100:1 gold availability. This makes the UN go away, the IMF go away, frees up about 10 or 20 3rd world countries to actually join the human race and become contributors to society instead of beaten and abused slaves to these instituations.
hey dear, you know that long paragraph you wrote about me being a sexual vampire? well, i can't find it this morning nor do i remember what the article's title was. could you help me out a little, especially since you think so highly of me lately. i don't remember a thing from last night and forgot how i responded to you. thanks in advance. or anyone else who witnessed this incident.
There ya go with the witness this incident thing again. You said the exact same thing about me when I called you out on paying taxes for coins which turned out to be jewelry. I think your response was woah, dog.
I'm going to be sociopathic about all this because that's really all that's left between me and the universe. I don't really care about your specific tearing down pattern. How many horrible fights involving tiny dick and stinky pussy insults or how much pain you've caused through this pattern or been subjected to. That's glib superficial and minimizing of something that is very important to you. If you want to understand it. Figure it out yourself.
What I do care about is being able to take one of those spirits that stand in front of you and flood you with an ego expression of trustworthyness overpowering your own judgement principles and making them feel like they are being dipped in acid with the acid is tearing through their flesh till they scream and run away. Because you'e only hurting yourself and a few people while they hurt millions and billions and trillions. And taking one of those spirits that walks into a bad neighborhood because they are caring millions of years of war and death and pain behind them as a veiled threat and making them feel like they are about to get monkey hammered till their skull explodes like a sick fucking macabre version of a gahllager comedy routine only the plastic bags are really toilet paper and it soaks up all the brain splatter.
It's kind of like architecture. Lots of line drawing and wall building.
September is not a delivery month. October does what october does. Kills things. Harvests and reaps.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gu68p3QAyPA
The only bubble worth a damn is fueled by easy credit. I dont see Miami condos or Riverside county single familys listed.
Their a Gold promo company what the fuck did you guy's think they were going to say.
This site has lost it's focus, or maybe that was the point from the begining. But for what
Judas for 30 pieces of silver?
Is the Mises Institute a "gold promo company" too ?
Oh you got me there because you know that was the point I was trying to make.
The overnight low in Dow Futures was 10580, so after the fake numbers we will rise to 10680 for the daily 100 point range, so simple.
Maybe POMO was moved up to today from Friday???
Gold reduced to nanoscale becomes soluble, and can serve as a potent chemical catalyst for nanotech medicinal applications (e.g. - treating cancer tumors/cells).
Gold nano-particles can be used to deliver vaccines through the skin without injections.
Multiply nano-partilces of gold times vaccines for billions of people, and cancer treatments for millions, and Gold will not be going down anytime soon (besides it's value as a worldwide standard currency of exchange).
Read more: Gates makes 78 global health grants - Puget Sound Business Journal (Seattle)
Bill? that you??
(didn't junk)
$1300 definitely has the Cartel spooked. You gotta hand it to them though. They're doing everything they can just to delay the inevitable.
"Gold she is in, er how you say, a bauble."
- Nouriel Roubini
love the visual.
continue to stack it.
~MV
+ 100 to all the previous posters , looks like no fools here... A chart showing what? The history of 100 to one leverage?
NO! Gold is a BUBBLE! It's up 50% in the last 30 years! How can you not see it's a bubble?! :P
"septics" - love that slip of the lip, TD
That's what I came to say! Quite the fitting description.
Also, what's this "Shark Liver Bubble of 1930?"
*runs off to google*
Gold is a bubble. Of course I said this when it was 400, but this time am right.
Am the great Jon Nadler and you little sheeps behave and believe me and sell it all before it goes to 200
keep buyin those treasuries....
Ah, JonNadler is back in form, I was afraid that you might have been, what, chastened the other day.
Guess it took Jamie Dimond himself to slap some sense back into you. Threaten your bonus did he?
The great Jon Nadler better get some help from the great Johnny Bravo (Truth now?).
Besides, you can't eat it!
As long as Jamie keeps my cards stuffed with cash, a benz in the garage and some girls to come home to....gold is going to 200 baby. I'll be around
A Benz in the garage, the Bearing almost pities you when you have to get the car serviced ("genuine" Mercedes parts prices are perhaps the best scam in the world).
Unless Jamie picks up the costs of fixing you car...
Wow, and girls to come home too.
Where do I send my resume? Gold to $200, bitchez!!!
http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_10_year_o_usd.png
Gold has been going up exponentially for the past 10 years. I see a slow and steady bubble forming... Does not mean gold is a bad investment--means you gotta know when to step out.
On a related note, gold priced in terms of energy looks like a more sensible metric.
It has not really gone up at all.
The creation of fiat has just out paced mine production for 10 years, that is all you see.
What are people's thoughts on oil as a hedge against inflation?
The Saudis have been pricing it in for many years.
XOM at 51 is a good deal:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=xom
BP at 26.75 was better:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=bp
http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/
Take a look at the inventories report yesterday.
An excerpt:
"Administration said oil inventories for the week ended Sept. 17 rose 1 million barrels. Oil traded around $75.30 a barrel before the report. The increase surprised traders. Analysts polled by Platts expected a decline of 1.5 million barrels for the week. Gasoline stocks rose 1.6 million barrels, whereas analysts had seen it unchanged. Reserves of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 300,000 barrels, the EIA said. They were forecast to increase 100,000 barrels, according to Platts"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-pares-gains-after-inventories-report-2010-09-22?siteid=rss
Also a must see is this
Mike Maloney see's $10 per barrel oil because there is no consumption because of the world depression.
http://goldsilver.com/news/tPath/2/
So I would say Oil is a terrible hedge right now.
Buy Gold/Silver
Gold is going over $1300 today so get ready for a few hundred Dollar push.
Depends on whether you buy it by the quart or the gallon.
And people think that gold is hard to store? Talk about your flammable assets.
For how long did those other "bubbles" run?
Gold passed peak production in 2001. WTF do you expect price to do when production falls materially? Those who wish to possess it are increasingly competing with each other over existing reserves. At current rates of production collapse, we'll be seeing 1/8 of 2000's production levels by the late 2020s. Price bears better hope that production declines level off some.
All you need do is google "gold production decline" and see shit like Anglo Ashanti's freaking CEO saying this production decline worldwide is a crisis for people like him.
So ENOUGH from the idiots and no more goddamned "duh does gold be's in a bubble" articles.
Look at this chart: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_world_production.png
Now, maybe it's possible that we'll find a new South Africa out there, an undiscovered continent or region on the planet that has immense reserves. But at this point, especially seeing as how discoveries peaked long ago and production outstripped discoveries for a long, long time, such an eventuality is highly unlikely.
Not even peak oil was a sure thing, predicted by Hubbert as 1965 - 1970.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
that was US production and it DID peak in the seventies
US oil production did peak in 1970, which is what Hubbert predicted.
Go take a look at the mine supply from RSA. Down 77% since their peak production in 1970.
People need to get over their fear of peak based upon their inability to comprehend it. Just listen to the smart people, we will tell you what to do.
Just heard Jon Nadle with Tom Keene on Bloomberg radio. Nadler basically reiterated his "public" position of gold being overvalued. However, what Mr Keene failed to ask and Mr Nadle fails to disclose is the fact that Nadlers company, Kitco, is a major purchaser of unrefined gold from from dealers. Mr Nadler purchases said gold at a discount and refines it into bullion and resells to the significant and continuing demand for bullion. Mr Nadler has a significant interest in-motivating sellers such that he can purchase and fill his bullion orders. How large is the backup in bullion product for Kitco. Kitco benefits greatly from purchasing gold a t a discount and selling at a premium. That is healthy and free enterprise. Non disclosure of vested and conflicted interests is not. Bloomberg need to at least inform it's listeners of their experts "skin in the game" and it's potential influence on an opinion.
Bingo
(obligatory and I do love this one)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMRo5XCKddQ
(caveat to the following - I'm a fan of gold)
Three thoughts:
1. That chart includes lots of individual stocks; which aren't really a valid comparison - the author would be better served leaving them off. It's a lot more expected to have wide variance in such things, since the actual underlying value of individual companies can change so rapidly.
2. One might be tempted to compare it to 1980, however that's not valid. Yes prices in 1980 were "up 2,276%", but that was against the artificially-depressed prices ($35) of the pre-ownership era (before 1975). Once gold ownerhip became valid, prices immediately shot up to their real value of about $140 per ounce (which roughly matches the pre-1933 value of $20, in inflation terms). Against that valid base, gold in 1980 was actually only up about 500%, not over 2000%.
3. All that being said - gold's price is of course being driven by it's valid as "currency insurance". It's insurance against one single thing - dollar default. For most insurance types (life insurance, auto, homeowners, etc.) you can set a pretty clear value, based on a team of actuaries looking at millions of past-history cases of events and payouts. However in the case of dollar default - there are zero cases of such event/payout - the dollar has never defaulted before. Thus it's extremely difficult to place a value on it as insurance. If such event does come about - the "bubble" price will be proven to be well worth it. If the even doesn't happen, the bubble price will have been not well paid. However that being said - at least gold is not term insurance - it's forever! So though there may be no payout in the near future (thus probably resulting in a significant price reduction) - there still may be decades from now; and the policy purchased years before will still be valid.
Good stuff, thank you! I'll add this:
1. You gotta start someplace.
2. The detractors are now thinking logically rather than on emotion.
3. The real goldbugs are having to assess their every move, that's good.
"septics"
As a Yankee I take offense to this typo.
What I miss in the graph is the bubble in fiat. Basemoney up 250% in 18 months. Many governementdebts up 100% in 24 months. Fiat as total of all financial reserves up to 99% from 80%. Derivatives up unknown % siice they are secret and I could go on.
Gold as % of total reserves down from 20ish% to 1%. Silver from part of the reserves (%unknown to me) to being no reserve anymore. Now what is the bubble. When gold rises to more then 25% of all total financial reserves we can debate if it is starting to form a bubble.
NFS
+++++
Maybe you just need to read some official statistics. :)
1%? Are you delusional?
http://www.ecb.int/stats/external/reserves/html/assets_2010-07.en.html
Maybe you need to know what the fuck you're talking about before you make a post :)
That is the composition of the reserves of a central bank. The parent was talking about TOTAL asset allocation. In 1980, 29% of ALL world assets were gold. Now, it is actually about 1%. Ain't no way this is a bubble.
http://thedailygold.com/chartstechnicals/gold-is-0-7-of-global-managed-a...
LOL!!
"In 1980, 29% of ALL world assets were gold."
Are you sure you counted all the wrenches and wenches?
I would tend to believe you have a skewed view of the physical world. Like all the Tokyo real estate once carrying an evaluation of an approximation of a far away continent.
Gold is a vehicle. The good thing is. You can ride it. And you can also park it.
I fear the US Dollar is on the verge of collapse. I just feel something in the air.
When people talk about gold or oil being overpriced, they're talking about the price in depreciating US Dollars.
The EURO is up about 30% against the USD in the past decade or so, so our $70 oil is their $50 oil, so to speak.
The Swiss Franc has doubled versus the USD in the past ten years. So oil for the Swiss is is $35 USD so to speak.
And gold is $650, so to speak.
That's what seems to happen when your currency goes kaput: commodity products seem to get more expensive, but, to the rest of the world, whose currencys are stable, and rising versus the USD, not so much.
Does that make sense?
It makes sense, so to speak.
Yes it makes sense. For a clearer understanding of gold and what it is, I recommend Gold Wars. Free pdf. http://www.garynorth.com/goldwars.pdf
makes sense to me.
are you the same instant karma on Maxkieser.com ?
That's the stench of Johnny Bravo's rotting corpse.
and we try *so* hard not to be snarky, but some folks make it *so* hard. :^)
where is JB anyway?
and happy belated b-day. to health and many more.
He promised to disappear if certain parameters were met -- and they were.
Thanks for the b'day wishes.
By definition, gold cannot be in a bubble. Gold measures (1) the expansion or contraction of real economic activity in the form of the rise or fall in its own purchasing power. (When economic activity is expanding, gold purchasing power falls; and, when it is contracting its purchasing power will rise.)
(2) Gold also will move inversely to the expansion or contraction of the currency in circulation relative to economic activity. If the amount of currency increases relative to economic activity, the price of gold will rise, if it decreases, the price of gold will fall.
To put this another way, gold will continue to rise as long as it is the policy of the US and all other nations to relentlessly force down wages through inflationary fiscal and monetary policy.
Also, there is no such thing as inflation-adjusted gold prices, since gold is the only useful measure of dollar inflation, i.e., the rise or fall of dollar purchasing power.
But all rules are off as soon as they ban gold possession, make it a felony to own currency gold and announce confiscation. The only problem I have with precious metals is theyre great until the tyrants get pissed and step in on it.
The solution, when you want a good dependable store of value when tyrants are doing their best to destroy all things of value, is to combine gold reserves with heavy firepower and a community of like-minded individuals. You'll be called a wingnut and a cultist but if you honestly believe things are as bad as they look it's the only real way to protect yourself. After that just hope you don't get Koreshed under the federal boot
Especially now that the US Army has an entire batallion in place to keep the peace within the US. Meanwhile, National Guard troops are fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.
An entire battalion? Holy shit! What will we do?
A battalion is a military unit of around 300–1,300 soldiers usually consisting of between two and seven companies and typically commanded by either a Lieutenant Colonel or a Colonel. Several battalions are grouped to form a regiment or a brigade.
...versus...
There are well over 250,000,000 privately-owned firearms in the U.S., including nearly 100 million handguns and tens of millions of assault weapons.
Which seems to indicate which troops are considered expendable, doesn't it? Or maybe I should say which troops are considered more valuable.
I certainly don't feel National Guard troops are any less valuable or expendable. But it does seem a bit suspicious to me that national guard troops are sent into the meat grinder, along with regular Army, at a higher percentage rate than regular Army. Then they're kicked to the curb as less than regular Army. Until they're called back up for the 4th time that is.
It does appear that the Nat Guard is being used as shock troops. Am I wrong? I claim no expertise on this subject. But I have looked into this and this is the impression I've arrived at. Anyone have a different opinion? I would like to hear it if you do.
And it is my understanding that the new Northcom consists of around 15,000 troops. And growing. Northcom was another national security move excused, or should I say justified, by the false flag 9/11.
http://www.northcom.mil/
Preservation of capital using gold investments is considered anti-patriotic.
Soon the USGovt great grab will seize private pension funds in order to feed the USTreasury bubble.
Soon the USGovt great grab will seize bank certificates of deposit in order to feed the USTreasury bubble. Resistance will be taxed heavily, punitively, and declared anti-patriotic.
Since the bloody coup d'etat that came on 911, the nation has been forced to deal with a Syndicate running the nation in name and deed.
The concept of anti-Syndicate has been equated with anti-Patriotic in a clever deft maneuver. It will not work.
The people are awakening, confused still, but growing wiser. There are new harvestings of civil liberties taking place every day, mostly in the name of national security, but also in the name of restoring order, and in the prevention of collapse. Within the confusing collage are letters that read CENTRAL BANKS FAILED.
Central bankers in the Western nations are scared witless of systemic failure and monetary system collapse.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1285272000.php
Jim Willie
Hi, Jim. Good to see you here. To any ZH readers who are not already aware of the Golden Jackass and his powers of perception, I suggest you read the linked article and many of his others.
Long time subscriber Jim.
Thanks for breaking the tough compacted ground on extremely sensitive subjects years before many others would. Subjects you've discussed that raised the hackles of many a few years ago are now considered old hat and completely verified. Someone must lead the way and you are one of a few. Thank you for your efforts.
I do. but i can't explain right now, get back to you tonight, ok. cause i am sure you'll be up all night blabbering.
Kathy seemingly stalking CD again.
kc, i believe you are on the wrong side of this trade.
let it go.
(while i still like your original 'v' graphic avatar, this one (green/yllw t-shirt) still comes in a close second.)
If you had actually thought it out, you'd realize how myopic and counter productive such a move would be. Google FOFOA and spend some time broadening your perspective.
Look, that is getting as tiresome as the inability to eat gold. It won't happen.
Get over it.
this post is making me hungry
http://www.ediblegold.com/ediblegoldfacts.asp
Rheumatoid Arthritis suffers at one time were given injections of Gold. It never entered the digestive system to be eliminated. Presumably the Gold is caught up in some clogged artery or in some corner of the brain/heart.
So if or when Gold hits $5,000 or $10,000, will Rheumatologists offices be burglerlized and medical records scanned to see who's worth more dead than alive?
"Harry, look at this chart. This old bat had 5 injections. She got to be worth a cool $20k at yesterday's close. And this old geezer had 9 shots over 6 years. This is a Goldmine, just like to said."
Brings new meaning to the phrase "going for the Gold" doesn't it. :>)
when you see what they do to rocks to get the trace-gold, there's some gnarly imagery happening when you picture them extracting the gold from grandpa...