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Gold to Correct After Front Page Financial Times Article? Gold in 2011 Vs The 1970’s And 1979

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From GoldCore

Gold to Correct After Front Page Financial Times Article? Gold in 2011 Vs the 1970’s and 1979

Gold has fallen in most currencies today and is trading at USD 1,603, EUR 1,130, GBP 995 and CHF 1,315 per ounce. Gold is 0.3% higher in Swiss francs again today after the last two weeks of deepening turmoil saw gold rise in the Swiss franc.

Cross Currency Rates

While Asian equities were mixed, European indices have bounced and Eurozone debt markets have also received a bid as risk appetite is renewed. This is in glaring contrast to yesterday’s real nervousness and shows markets schizophrenic tendencies at the moment.

Gold in USD – 180 Days (Daily)

Many market participants are expecting a correction in gold at the psychological level of $1,600/oz.

This is quite possible given corrections often take place after reaching record round number highs. Also, corrections tend to happen when there is a lot of noise in the press and media.

Gold’s record high in all currencies is front page news in the Financial Times today which would make any contrarian nervous that the recent move is overdone. However, coverage remains very muted in much of the non specialist financial press – many of whom barely covered or did not even mention the new record gold highs.

The man or woman in the street, in Europe and much of the western world, remain blissfully unaware of gold’s rising price and unaware of gold’s importance as a store of wealth and an important diversification.

Gold is not overvalued – especially in the long term but even in the short term.

Gold at $1,603/oz is only 2.5% above the recent record nominal price seen on April 29th at $1,563.70/oz. Thus, gold has had a two month correction and consolidation prior to reaching the new nominal highs over $1,600/oz.

Gold’s Annual Appreciation in the 1970’s

Year to date in 2011, gold is only 13% higher in dollars, 7% in euros and 9.4% higher in sterling.

Therefore, it is quite possible that gold targets the next psychological level of $1,700/oz, prior to any meaningful correction.  Higher prices in euros and pounds are especially likely, prior to a correction.

It is worth remembering that in the 1970’s gold bull market, gold had annual appreciation of some 30% per annum and had moves of over 73% in 1973 and 66% in 1974 (see table above).

Gold only went parabolic in 1979 when it rose by over 140%.

The conditions today are worse than the 1970’s when the U.S. was a net creditor nation and not a net debtor nation – the largest debtor nation the world has ever seen.

‘Armageddon’ has been warned of by President Obama if the United States fails to raise its debt ceiling.

This may be hyperbole used in debt ceiling negotiations with obstinate Republicans but there are many banking analysts, economists and leading financial experts (the ones that predicted the crisis and the continuing crisis) who concur with the American President and are genuinely concerned of an economic meltdown.

We are a long way from gold mania yet and gold coverage in the non specialist financial press remains muted – despite the ‘perfect storm’ for rising gold prices.

More importantly, gold and silver bullion ownership among the population remains very low.

Gold in Swiss Francs – 10 Days (Tick)

As ever, investors would be better served buying gold and silver on the dips and dollar (euro, pound and Swiss franc) cost averaging into allocations.

Attempting to time corrections and speculate on short term moves is extremely difficult and should be avoided by retail investors and all but the most experienced traders.

NEWS

(Financial Times) -- Gold Beaches £1,000 Barrier - Investors head for havens in debt storm
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fb477bfe-b15e-11e0-9444-00144feab49a.html#axzz1SRVrabyK

(Reuters) -- Gold hovers below record, extends gains to 12th day
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/07/19/uk-markets-precious-idUKTRE76H0EU20110719

(Bloomberg) -- Europe Commodity Day Ahead: Gold May Extend Best Run in 31 Years
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-19/europe-commodity-day-ahead-gold-may-extend-best-run-in-31-years.html

(Financial Times) -- India’s growing wealth bolsters gold demand
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bc62186c-b155-11e0-9444-00144feab49a.html#axzz1SRVrabyK

COMMENTARY

(The Telegraph) -- Gold bulls and bears clash as price hits new peak
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100010874/gold-bulls-and-bears-clash-as-price-hits-new-peak/

(Irish Independent) - Declan Ganley -Tyranny of Mediocrity in Brussels Will March On - Unless Drastic Action Taken Immediately
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/we-need-to-come-up-with-a-plan-b-for-the-euro-crisis-2811936.html

(King World News) -- London Trader - Potential for Major Short Covering in Gold
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/7/18_London_Trader_-_Potential_for_Major_Short_Covering_in_Gold.html

(The Market Oracle) -- Marc Faber on Gold, Silver, Deflation and the US Economy
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article29321.html

(Zero Hedge) The Head Of The World's Biggest Hedge Fund Sees "Economic Collapse" Due To Money Printing By Early 2013
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/head-worlds-biggest-hedge-fund-sees-economic-collapse-due-money-printing-early-2013

(Uncommon Wisdom) -- Own Gold - The best asset class you can for these kinds of times - Larry Edelson
http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/bernanke-out-of-bullets-heck-no-12482?FIELD9=2

 

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Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:42 | 1469486 lubyanka
lubyanka's picture

It's still fear. Once greed takes over we will approach a correction

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:17 | 1469540 youngman
youngman's picture

I would not say its fear...its intelligent investing....look at the alternatives..

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:55 | 1469848 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

I tend to agree. There is fear, and there is an intelligent appreciation of danger. The two are not the same. The man who quietly dons a parachute upon noticing a slight laboring to the rythm of the airplane's engine is not the same as the panic-stricken idiot who flings himself madly from the flaming wreckage.

When it becomes obvious that the trajectory is straight down, then gold will soar beyond 2000- in fact, the paper price for gold may be anything, since actual bits of the material may be impossible to obtain at any price, save that of real morsels of food, or a pop bottle full of gasoline. 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:46 | 1470094 Dane Bramage
Dane Bramage's picture

Excellent observations.  Also - any "correction" valuated in a dying currency seems a bit of an academic exercise.  Were there "corrections" in Wiemar (Zimbabwe, any other failed fiats) gold pricing?  I think the proper definition of "correction" here is death throes.   Sure there will be starts and fits, changes in velocity but the end game for the subjective value of the USD$ (et. al. fiats) is a future epitaph.  Perhaps there is analyses of gold's purchasing power that would serve better?  Of course that will also fluctuate madly short-term as the normalcy bias gets smacked down.  Well, while I'm sure there are profits to made in the chaos.  I'm content to simply go long, long physical (& have been "all in" sine early 2000s).

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:24 | 1469548 toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

once greed takes over gold will go to 10 000/oz

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:46 | 1469613 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

I personally think that a rally led by fear will be far stronger then one led by greed.

Fear is a stronger emotion then greed.

When the sheep finally wake up and see that their paper fiat is on fire there will be a mad dash to the exit, with only gold waiting on the other side with open arms.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:08 | 1469687 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I would argue that at greed's core or root there is fear.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:17 | 1469713 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

and I would agree....

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:21 | 1469729 Illya Kuryakin
Illya Kuryakin's picture

with what - core or root?

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:56 | 1469836 DosZap
DosZap's picture

IK,


Easy, of being left destitute, or without  what one has accumulated over a lifetime.Losing that is a very fear engendering, and prompts one to not only try and cover what they have managed to earn/save, but if possible put even a larger cushion between themselves and that which engenders fear.There is where  kicks in.


Every Trader/purchaser of metals/equities here, operates on the Principle of greed, and fear in some cases.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:27 | 1469988 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Loved your work in The Man From UNCLE.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:58 | 1470172 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

made an UNCLE clubhouse out of a frig box when i was 6...

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:44 | 1469489 bullionbaron
bullionbaron's picture

Where to for the price of Gold/Silver? Short term they are due for a pull back/consolidation, but they will head higher... $1700 - $2000 could be on the cards by the end of the year:

http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/07/gold-1600-silver-40-where-to-now.html

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:55 | 1469510 euphoria
euphoria's picture

Good to see the bullion baron on zerohedge.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:02 | 1469526 bullionbaron
bullionbaron's picture

Thanks euphoria, daily reader, irregular poster :)

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:28 | 1469997 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I've been a bit irregular lately as well.   Nice to have company.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 12:22 | 1470621 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

Irregular?  

I think you know what I have to say about that.

Hook Line and Sphincter recommends castor oil.

Did I mention that I buy AU out of a combination of brotherly love, well placed fear, and a healthy lust for shiny objects? 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:05 | 1469678 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Yes, but people will think you are a kook for saying so based on past price action.  But, past price action is increasingly becoming misleading. 

We just saw a $120 monthly rise.  This phenomenon is going to be a lot more common in the coming months so I believe your prediction of $1700 to $2000 may be a bit low.  It depends on economic and political matters more than anything to do with the price action of gold. 

Looking at GoldCore's chart for the gains made during the 70's, there was no indication of a top until the blow off year (1979).  This time around, everyone will see that it is the currency that is the problem when gold goes verticle, so spotting the top won't be too hard, because there is no top, just a bottom for the dollar (zero).

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:32 | 1469766 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

We just saw a $120 monthly rise.

and reuters headlines today:

Gold eases from record highs, eyes euro summit

Gold prices eased a touch on Tuesday after earlier hitting record highs, as a rebound in assets seen as higher risk, such as shares and the euro, took some of the heat out of appetite for safe havens.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:50 | 1469497 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

any correction is good. It could even correct pretty badly to 1420$ in the comming months but after that it will swing back up.

But for silver I think they are running out of power to manipulate it much more. Maybe 1 or 2 margin increases but by then silver stocks will be sold out.

And who cares about short term corrections? This debt thing is here to stay for at least 5 to 10 years and most PM investors don't mind adding a year to the big payout day.

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:13 | 1469724 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Sudden Debt,

I don't think they can get it down to $1420.  Manipulation is reaching diminishing returns.

The people still holding PMs know the game now, and that has completely changed the game.  Are there any scardy cats left on the long side?

The harder they hit the price, the more power that is compressed into the spring.  Take July for example.  Does anyone think the manipulators of gold and silver are satisfied with the results?

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:07 | 1469887 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Right on. How many Greek bonds can I buy for an ounce of gold? Can I get my 38% yield paid in gold? If there was a true open market for Treasuries, (instead of the self-consumption going on now) what would the yield be? And can I get paid back in bullion?

The "debt thing" will be with us for more than 10 years. There will be no return to normal. Funny thought- when gold was money, by what did people reference its value?

 

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:36 | 1470021 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

...when gold was money, by what did people reference its value?

Didn't think that one through did you?   How does one evaluate the "value" of a paper dollar?  By how many Big Macs one can buy, of course.   Same thing holds true for gold currency.   Back in the old West you could stable your horse with full feed and grooming, get a night in a nice room, have a big ole steak dinner, get the prettiest gal in the saloon to stay with you, and take a full bottle of good hootch -- all for a $20 gold piece, and get plenty of change from your coin.   So, that's about what you could get today for the same coin.   Well, maybe not the gal... she might have a missing tooth or two.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:50 | 1469499 newstreet
newstreet's picture

Don't you know talking about a correction in gold is blasphemy here?

 

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:40 | 1470062 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Like holding from $1000 to $690 after Bear Stearns in 2008? A "legitimate correction"? Hardly. More like JPM up to its eyeballs in criminal activity, with the FED giving them cover to do it. 

Corrections are normal and good in any bull market. That said, gold would most likely be double or triple in price right now if not for blatant manipulation in the markets. This is all common knowledge these days thanks to sites like ZH. 

What was your point again?

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:42 | 1470072 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

There is a difference between a gold-bug and an idiot.  They are not so mutually synonymous as you might think, although they do merge in a very few.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:52 | 1469503 PeeTee
PeeTee's picture

A stupid question by a relatively uninitiated.

 

Suppose I have $5000 to spare on my savings account.

Should I buy gold, with the paper money basically doing down fast?

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:59 | 1469515 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

$1500 silver $1500 Gold...$1000 in cash stashed at the house $1000 in long term storage food/water/seed. But that is me..it's your $$.

Note I'm not a financial advisor....just a survival nut..so take it what it's worth.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:06 | 1469527 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Long term investment:

2500$ silver

1700$ gold

Short term investment:

500$ Beer

100$ DVD porn tapes

200$ kinky lingerie set for the misses

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:56 | 1469647 zuuuueri
zuuuueri's picture

long term investment: guns and rice

medium term investment: apartment building

short term investment: is a scam

gold, is not an investment, it is money.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:01 | 1469662 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

So you're going to build apartments with 5K... how are you going to do that? With Chinese drywall?

You do that. I'll just watch my porn while I drink my beer while my misses gives me a lap-dance in her new lingerie.

 

You have fun with your rice also....

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:32 | 1469767 zuuuueri
zuuuueri's picture

ah, silly me, that should teach me to not read a few posts up. You should be flattered that i looked at your comment first and ignored the few above it... 

with only 5k usd? ah, yeah. hrm. bit different.

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:17 | 1469935 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

With 5K, my recipie is:

1500 in morgan silver culls

1000 in 30-30 carbine and ammo

2500 in trade school for traditional skill/tools for something useful to do, like blacksmithing, or herbalism.

Or, maybe I'd buy a horse. Or build a grist mill. The possibilities!

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:14 | 1469531 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

4 ways of tackling this: 

#1. When the price has done this kind of thing, it really is healthy to wait for a pullback and then buy. Folks will tell you that you could be priced out forever (and you could) but so far the price seems to go down near the time of future's options expiration.

#2. There may come a time when gold just takes off like a bat out of hell and never turns back. Do you think this could be that time? If so, then just consider buying gold or silver as often as you can and don't worry the price at these levels because it will go much higher. Better to have it in your posession than to nickel and dime yourself in a time of crisis. They call it cost averaging. Over the years of accumulating, when I buy these days, I have such a deep (so called) profit margin, that when I do buy and it drops, I can look at my over all "profits" (no one profits unless you are beating the drop in fiat), see the cushion there, and not panic. Next month or three, sure enough, it goes up again and it even eats the commission.

#3. Some like silver better for a boat load of reasons I will not write about here, but it is out there on the net. Supply, traditional ratio of gold to silver price, new silver applicatins are some issues to google. At the $5,000 level, this may be a better use of your money (more upside potential, more volatile).

#4. There may be other things you need more. Are you ready for a disaster? Do you have enough food on hand to comfortably sit out a distribution crisis that could arise if there is a fuel shortage and trucks don't roll? An earthquake? Power outage? (Insert a likely disaster for your area). If you are not prepped, you may consider getting that taken care of, then a good gun, before gold. $5,000 right now will buy you some very solid preps.

Good luck.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:14 | 1469538 PeeTee
PeeTee's picture

Thanks for the replies. This surely is something I can work with.

The kinky lingerie has already been taken care of.

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:36 | 1470038 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Unless you have a backup generator on your property, you may want to go with the paper version of porn.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:19 | 1469543 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Much better than I said Ms

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:54 | 1469636 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Yours was shorter and got to the heart of matters quickly. Good advice.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:48 | 1470084 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

If it's only $5,000 then it should be in currency with some ($1,000) spent on absolute necessities (e.g. prescriptions, basic food stuffs, tp, alcohol) and a cheap pistol or shotgun with some ammunition.  The rest, incl. some small bills, kept in a safe place.  The first sign of real trouble will be a run on cash in the banks.  This is the usual symptom of the merde getting close to the fan.  The more people that are refused cash, the more people that will want it.  Cash will be King, for a while.  Without it, no food or fuel!  Transport fuel and even bus tickets will be especially hard to get.  It'll be very difficult to travel to a safer place. 

Then the government will try to "fix the problem".  That's when PMs will start traveling on their parabola.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:10 | 1469533 gillimus
gillimus's picture

Suppose I have $5000 to spare 

 

If you want to hedge part of your cash savings with gold, that's a sound idea.  Make sure you have enough of a cash cushion to weather some hard times.  

 


Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:25 | 1469552 caerus
caerus's picture

imo, if you would like to get the most oz for your $ wait a few days, gold just took a little over two months to break resistance at around 1550...when it broke, it appreciated (roughly) 8% since 7/5 until the highs yesterday.  This has been the longest streak of consecutive gains in (depending on the source) several decades.  If you're buying phys (bullion) and are holding for the long term, this may not be a big deal...however, some patience may enable you to buy some extra 1/10ths...hope this helps

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:54 | 1469506 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

It will vacillate back and forth across the $1600 zone until the August 2 deadline in the US (assuming nothing major occurs elsewhere). After which it will make a slow march upward toward the $1700+ mark as it is realized the US will be forced to print since it cannot get it's financial house in order.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:36 | 1469779 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Back and forth across $1600: Agreed

Slow march toward the $1700 mark: Disagreed

I think we will see more desperation on the part of the manipulators and hence, more opposite but unequal reactions higher like we have seen in July.  The pressure is building.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:55 | 1469511 AladdinSaneGirl
AladdinSaneGirl's picture

Aha! "...gold and silver bullion ownership among the population remains very low".

Quite, but i just read on Friday that Westfield Shopping Centre in London is the first to roll out a gold bar dispensing machine (make it easier for the public to buy physical). Planning to go down soon, take a look.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:00 | 1469521 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Great ASG!

Can you also inform at what price they are selling the bullions?

And if it's only gold or also silver?

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:32 | 1469566 AladdinSaneGirl
AladdinSaneGirl's picture

i will report back! Might not get down for few days tho. 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:46 | 1469614 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

still good :)

I'm pretty interested at what prices gold sells to the public.

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:56 | 1470160 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Can you imagine what someone would do when the machine eats his $1600 and doesn't spit out a coin?  He'll look like your avatar beating on the thing.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:58 | 1469514 yabs
yabs's picture

correction maybe, but is NOWHERE near a bubble

I do  not know ANYONE that has physical gold or has even thought of it

they are still in the fiat/paper matrix

When they realize its only tangible assets that will survive then watch PMS explode as people wake up

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:58 | 1469516 Blano
Blano's picture

FYI, heads up, Cramer is saying buy.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:50 | 1469626 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Yeah, but he is pushing paper gold - the GLD.

He is a tool of the establishment!

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:00 | 1469661 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

I noticed he said yesterday he has always said "you could have up to 20% gold exposure in your portfolio"

 

That guy is a fucking clown

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:02 | 1469668 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Cramer said buy?  Run for the hills!

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:25 | 1469975 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Yes, Cramer says to buy GLD.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/280051-cramer-s-mad-money-buy-gold-not-g...

What a fucking moron. If someone believes that buying something invisible that they will never see, and that is only paper than can be exchanged for some other paper is a good idea, I have a bridge to sell them.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 07:59 | 1469520 Scroto Gaggins
Scroto Gaggins's picture

With BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South America) increasing their reserves exponentially, and calling for a new "global reserve currency" ...yes a correction to the upside (my speculation).  Anyone hear about Andrew Maguire?  How long will the BRICS remain silent about the CFTC carrying out business as usual?

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:06 | 1469885 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Wait until the Asian version of CRIMEX get's rolling,(SOON)it will take millions of ounces more off the market...........all good for the price.

Physical will start to be harder to get.And Premiums are going to rise.

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 13:01 | 1470772 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

OR they flood the market with fake paper to deflate the price and buy more for themselves in the short to medium term. I don't think these Asians are avenging angels that will right all wrongs necessarily. I hope you guys are right, but this is where the sucker punch would be. 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:02 | 1469523 gmak
gmak's picture

How nice. Gold may correct at 1600. Gold may correct at 1700. I'll bet that Gold may correct at 1750 or 1800, also.

 

Blah, blah, blah ...... my book .... blah, blah blah.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:01 | 1469524 BinAround
BinAround's picture

With small amounts of savings, it doesn't matter what the investment is, it won't change your life.  Save money each month.  That is the most important thing, not what you invest it in.  With so little, don't take risks, since losing is easy, then you'd get discouraged, and maybe stop investing.  Nothing wrong with buying an ounce of gold every few months.   

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:08 | 1469530 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

what crap..does any other markets correct when they hit psycho levels?  they usually latley blast through with stoopit news..

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:07 | 1469684 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Lets see the in-depth articles worrying about 100+ P/E equities all over the markets.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:11 | 1469532 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

It seems to me this is the correct measure of gold's true "price." Forget the dollar or the euro or the pound (for now?)--interestingly the yen has been strong for some time in spite of the Fukushima--how about the Canadian Dollar? Gold should be measured only in what the market determines to be at that time "the strongest currency." I agree without a doubt that would be the Swiss Franc. Looking at the other side of the coin..."what does this fact say about the Swiss Franc?" Is gold yet again "just looking to trade up again?" He's always unhappy...

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:44 | 1470092 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

But... isn't the measure of gold's value in terms of fiat money all a waste of time? Again, I ask, when gold is money, how is its value determied? I guess by whatever one can get with it. In ultimate terms, this means gold is valued in consumables, which we all need, until we consume a coffin and that's the end of it. When gold isn't used to purchase consumables, it is hoarded, which then makes gold the purchaser of power. Who has physical possession? My guess the vast bulk of gold today is possessed by someone who wears a little skullcap.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:29 | 1469559 Hot Shakedown
Hot Shakedown's picture

Forget the Financial Times story -- the untold, "page 16", story is the, international, Pan - Asian Exchange in China as a catalyst for new demand. LMA now has competition and this is going to improve price discovery ......with 340 million plus chinese weighing in.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:44 | 1469812 TGR
TGR's picture

 Oh dear. 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:30 | 1469564 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Gold and Silver...I got mine, bitchez!

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:08 | 1469894 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Gub Worker,

Got enough?

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:47 | 1469618 GlenD
GlenD's picture

Only need look silver volume to realize crimex is at it again. Volume currently increasing 1K per minute

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:48 | 1469619 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

I don't like it when investments I own make front page headlines...or when Cramer is recommending it.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:36 | 1469781 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

I don't consider gold an in vestment. It's like a self directed CD (in my piggy bank). It will always be there when I need it, as well as always holding it's value tax free.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:10 | 1469904 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Gold is not an investment, it is insurance.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:38 | 1469787 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

I don't consider gold an in vestment. It's like a self directed CD (in my piggy bank). It will always be there when I need it, as well as always holding it's value tax free.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:54 | 1469637 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

The conditions today are worse than the 1970’s when the U.S. was a net creditor nation and not a net debtor nation – the largest debtor nation the world has ever seen.

Bingo.  Normal market wisdom like "the bubble is about to burst when it makes the cover of Time Magazine" does not apply here (but it could fortell further manipulation).  Gold is going up because they are destroying the currency.  Sure, as a contrarian I am anxious when I see people jumping on the bandwagon, but then I remember that the USD is being destroyed and our finances have passed the point of no return.  Gold critics just don't understand the inescapable truth of the matter, it's not about the gold, it's about fiat being destroyed.

Normal market analysis (including magazine covers and technical analysis) doesn't apply to these conditions.  Only two things matter, the liklihood of the another round of short term gold manipulation by TPTB (i.e., a buying opportunity), and the inevitable rise of gold as the USD and other fiat fail.

TPTB have lost their ability to preserve fiat and create panic among those who hold gold.  Has any long term holder of gold reached the sell point yet?

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:59 | 1469656 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sell gold for what, to take hold of fiat? Well thats not how I view gold as a way to make paper profits. I'll sell gold for a stable currency if and when that ever happens, not until then.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:27 | 1469750 toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

+1

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 08:58 | 1469650 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"debt ceiling negotiations with obstinate Republicans"

I'm politically independent, but I would like the author to define the difference between "obstinate" and "resolute".

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:04 | 1469675 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Obstinate' Stubbornly refusing to change ones position. Well why not just call anyone at all against the lunatic Obama 'insolent peasants'?

BTW I dont know what their position is or anyone else since we live in a fascist nation not even 1 detail of any of these 'plans' has been shown to the peasantry. Like Obama says, 'You have to be a professional politician to get what we're doing here'...uh oh.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:22 | 1469731 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Sheep ...I caught that too.   Word choice says alot about the writer.  I agree with you, and don't buy into this blue team/ red team bullshit. I found it interesting to see him choose the rebulicans to describe as obstinate when I see obstinance and arrogance displayed by all those political clowns.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:15 | 1469921 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I am sure some here saw Steve Wynn's interview yesterday.

He said as long as Obama is in the Whitehouse their will be NO new jobs, nor any hiring.

He stated Obama is the worst President in his lifetime so against business.

Obama ,and his radical actions, and way of thinking has ALL business owners scared spitless, and until HE IS GONE, we are at a dead STOP.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 11:10 | 1470221 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

What a crock of shit that was!  Dumb fuck Wynn, like most people, are unable to differentiate between symptoms and the actual disease.   Obama is a symptom of the disease!

Before someone says Wynn must be a genius because he's a billionaire, I would suggest that he's a poorer billionaire than he was a few years ago, and that was a pretty stupid gamble he made on his new casino when the economy was clearly in a big financial bubble.  Yes grasshopper, regardless of what you may have seen on TV, the current problems were foreseeable.  Even I could see them coming (a bit too early) and sold all my real estate in 2005 and 2006 out of fear of a crash.

How all those fucking idiots ever thought that assets could forever inflate faster than wages is above my pay grade.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 11:15 | 1470278 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

I agree FS. If Wynn is lucky, when the smoke clears he'll have a potsherd with which to scrape his supporating boils.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:01 | 1469663 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the final move will be vertical on low volume imo. The day is coming when people will not want to trade gold for usd clownbux at any price unless they owe a debt in that currency.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:29 | 1469761 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Please also note that the gold price has reached the upper Bollinger band and is trading way above the MA50, MA100 and MA200 lines respectively.

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:56 | 1470161 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

A standard deviation band is a handy technical tool when everything is normal, but this is uncharted territory. Paic and calamity change relative value systems. Ask anyone alive today who fled Paris in the summer of 1940. Values stood on their head, and a sausage or a liter of gasoline was worth lots and lots of gold. The destruction of a debt-based economy makes gold's valuation in debt instruments that no-one believes will ever be repaid a big fat X- gold will shoot past 2000 without eve a bump.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 09:20 | 1473365 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

+1000

Yup

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:31 | 1469763 janus
janus's picture

I was sensing a disruption in The Force -- some foul rumbling from the cavity of whatever canker keynesians call home.  the benevolent warning from filmy-skinned fiatists that gold is in a bubble...'Be warned, Good Citizen, this has all the probable perniciousness of its bubble-brothers.  economic ruin awaits these queer PMers (you'll know them by the hauteur of Prophetic Certainty and their intransigent contempt for all things unreasonable), and they damned-well deserve it for daring to doubt The Formal Schools of Thought'.  Or something to that effect...and so it begins again, so subtly and surreptitiously, in the most likely place: FT.

Fear not.  These melancholy mushheads are about to get a dose of rock-and-roll, courtesy Janus.  PMs are not in a bubble, they are mustering a mighty headwind.  40 silver and 1600 gold are an absurd bargain in every objective measure; their true value is likewise magnified many times over when scaled against ANY comprable asset.  ten times these prices may begin nibblin at the contours of a bubble, but this PM market is the nascent nebula of a mutha-fuckin supernova!

All this tension has a way of agitating the stew up stairs, and all sorts of images and fragmentary visions get jumbled up; usually this process has a way of resolving itself in the wee hours of the night, and I'm able to greet the next day in my customary Prophetic Certainty.  so you can imagine my shock being stricken down all road-to-damascus like in the dawn's early light...it kicks the shit out of any espresso.  alright, i won't keep you salivating...

The Vision:

While reading this article and some of its source material, i caught my thoughts ceaselessly drifting back to an image I saw here on ZH several days ago, one of ill-tempered and highly-motivated bears.  Each of them were bearing the weight of what seemed to be Cossaks.  Whatever they were or weren't isn't a matter of genuine concern, what is important is that they had a look of intractable resolve about them, to the effect that they looked poised to fuck some shit up epic-like.  and if there was any doubts about their intent, they cleared that up with shimmering sabers and spit-shined AK-47s.

And so it is that when pondering bears and dynastic shifts in economic cycles my thoughts invariably turn to Scripture and the story of Elias (major prophet, heathens).

Elias was your salt-o-the-earth type, well stocked in asses and oxen (or so we're told);  elias was a creature of the upper-middle class, to put it in palatable parlance; and elias was as shocked as any man who's accustomed to the ins and outs of ass/oxen husbandry that God would burden him with a message...seeing how burdens have a way of making their presence felt -- just ask Jonah.

Well, I guess I don't have to tell you that elias went about warning of the dire consequences of living in such a day: famine, disease, radon gas, toxic mold, restless leg syndrome, stinging locusts...you get the picture.  so here was our hero, out prophesyin proudly for The Lord, sewing fear and dread abroad in the Grand Old Tradition.  and wouldn't you know it, haters!

here's elias, all sackcloth and ashes, emerging from the wilderness, and some jive-turkeys think it a grand idea to start taunting the ole oracle...calling him names, teasing, the works -- unbearable ridicule for a man such as he was.

It didn't take long for God Himself to get wind of this foul affair.  And God, being who He Is, has lots of highly creative ways for dealing with haters (just look at Pharaoh)...and, brother, he was holding back on a good one for these depraved delinquents.

Next thing you know, snarling-demon-possessed bears spring from the bushes, eager to pounce these pusillanimous posers and practice the dark art of mauling.  These Enemies of God did make like jack-rabbits down the dusty road, and the savage bears did give chase.  I don't have to tell you what comes next, but the Bible seems intent on filling in the gory details:

This is almost exactly what Scripture says on the matter:

"...and the bears did give chase, and they did fell the jive turkeys in their tracks. and thusly The Lord spoke unto the bears saying, 'ye shall devour their flesh, their hair follicles, their cartilage...yeah, unto the very cheekmeat, the bone and the marrow thereof (and it goes on)...and you shall therefore wallow in their remains in the afternoon sun, whereupon I will warm your bear-hides therein.'  after which, the Lord did bless his Great Mercy with a double-rainbow, as a promise that keynsians will never rule the earth again."

The lesson here is, buy...BUY BIG; and, as always, STRONG HANDS, bitchez!

fire on the mountain run boys run/

devil's in the house of the risin sun/

chicken in the breadpan pikin out dough/

granny does yer dog bite/

no child no,

Janus

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:25 | 1469976 DosZap
DosZap's picture

What you smokin?, I want some..............LOL

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 11:01 | 1470192 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

BEST ZH rant I've read in a coon's age.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 11:52 | 1470469 Zero Debt
Tue, 07/19/2011 - 13:58 | 1471076 janus
janus's picture

thank you gentlemen...you flatter me.

 

PS I'm smoking Van Nelle Zware -- highly recommend.

Janus

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:37 | 1469783 PaperBugsBurn
PaperBugsBurn's picture

Man, everybody here is not even considering the SDR subplot which might be the gold slayer? Banksters don't want a gold standard at all.

Come on, ZH!

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:51 | 1469837 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

We do not accept SDRs.

Just another virtual fiat confetti currency.

Even more fiat than the dollar or euro.

 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:54 | 1469847 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

"Is it true that they poured molten gold down his throat? ...-marc antony

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:36 | 1470042 DosZap
DosZap's picture

No, it was molten lead, and J Lo got rid of his arse.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:56 | 1469851 paint it red ca...
paint it red call it hell's picture

Sorry if previously posted, but Cramer has called the bottom on miners yesterday

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/280051-cramer-s-mad-money-buy-gold-not-g...

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 11:34 | 1470352 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

And of course they're all down today... thanks for making my day 'paint it,' now I'll have to sell my miners!

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 09:59 | 1469862 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

I don't consider gold prices falling or climbing until you have 20$+ moves.

 

IE: on Fox business when they say gold is down 5$, im like..."yea but its up 1000"

Wtf is a 5$ move in a commodity when its trading close to 2000$, thats just noise on the chart, has almost no relevance... 20$ + moves is where you start to atleast take notice.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 12:04 | 1470540 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Yep!  A tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

But it scares the sheep now and then.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 10:20 | 1469951 Elmer Fudd
Elmer Fudd's picture

go ahead and correct, I got some fiat, come to papa!!!! 

agreed, calling a $3 move in a 1600 item a down move is kind of silly.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 11:07 | 1470235 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Yeah, about SDR's...the only way to enforce them is to do so at gunpoint. By the time thigs are so fucked up that SDR's become global currency, I personally will be in an economy of barter and precious metals transactions.

On a more realistic note,it is possible SDR's will be what backs now-broke national currencies. The bills will still have dead presidents on them, but they won't be backed by the FED, (er Rothchilds) they'll be backed by the Rothshilds, er, IMF... oh, fuck it, I keep repeating myself.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 12:01 | 1470522 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I agree Americans aren't going to use SDRs.  They'll still be using those pieces of paper that are backed by "the full faith and credit of the United States".

"What faith and credit?", I hear you cry.  Sorry Charlie, it's the only game in town.  Take it or leave it.  Just like rubles in the USSR 50 years ago.  And anyone caught trying to buy real stuff on the black market with gold, silver or hard currency (whatever that turns out to be) will find himself working for no compensation in Siberia or its equivalent.

http://www.thedailybell.com/2695/Anthony-Wile-Banker-X-on-Gold-Real-Esta...

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 12:37 | 1470661 valuetrader
valuetrader's picture

All the geniuses are back with the ''bubble is bursting'' argument. I did a search on google and it is rather funny. Gold can go down (rarely these days but it can) but it is not in a bubble. Here are some bubbles for you: $, £, EUR, JPY and their respective bond markets. This is my opinion. 

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 15:19 | 1471453 Ag1761
Ag1761's picture

Correction now underway

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 15:54 | 1471602 jomama
jomama's picture

another classic pump and dump

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