Gold Could See $1,800/oz On Seasonal Strength And Deepening Eurozone And U.S. Debt Crisis

Tyler Durden's picture

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johngaltfla's picture

I still think gold is seriously overdue a 10-25% correction and consolidation between $1400-$1550 for a period of time before moving forward as the dollar is due for a technical rebound and attempt to kiss 84-86 on the USDX also.

slaughterer's picture

Gold will sell below $1450/ounce in two weeks time once the Eurozone debt crisis fades from attention and the implausability of a QE3 in 2011 sinks in.   Short gold. 

johngaltfla's picture

I can't disagree with that but anything below $1400 it becomes time to back up the trucks for the phsycial, not the paper.

Transitory Disinflation's picture


Moody's Investors Service believes that the French housing market is overheating and that less
cautious lenders could face large losses if house prices were to fall significantly. Analyst Stephane

Herndl said: "French banking groups' inherent exposure to the country's housing market is the
principal reason why a potential correction in house prices poses material credit risk.”

http://www.homesgofast.com/view_news/2183/

wandstrasse's picture

As a TA newbie I dare to post my analysis of the 1day chart since fall 2010... I still see an intact upwards trend which started 28 January (after a correction which started 7 December 2010). This trend would only be broken if the price gets below the 1,444 from 12 April. The trend would be confirmed above the 1,576 from 2 May.

Within this cycle, an 'inner' - upwards trend started on 5 May. This 'inner' one was broken on 24 June. The downward bars show a little more momentum than the upward ones. But overall I cannot see a clear direction of the actual 'inner' cycle. If I traded with real money, I would only open intraday positions. If I had 10,000 Euros to spend for physical, I would buy 3 ounces today and wait 1-2 weeks to spend more.

Bay of Pigs's picture

TA is more for short to mid term traders and market timers. It is not as helpful for a long term buy and hold strategy (accumulation). For over ten years I've heard people say the same thing, "I'm waiting for it to go lower", and they never get a position. 

To be honest, I'm surprised gold and silver are this low.

The worldwide economic and financial backdrop is the worst (and by far) that I've ever seen. 

 

GetZeeGold's picture

 

I still think gold is seriously overdue a 10-25% correction

Sure...............because everything else is going so well.

Current condition : EPIC FAIL

 

lawrence1's picture

Based on what, your crystal ball?

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

yahoo message boards for SLV and ZSL shut down by yahoo..wondering why??

AGORACOM's picture

They look shut down to me as of 9AM EST 

George ... The Greek ... From Canada

AGORACOM's picture

You can't reach either by clicking message boards from within each symbol

Strange

GetZeeGold's picture

 

Backdoor bitchez.

From the SLV board.

...."you need the keys to the rear. lol they are getting desperate. ".....

 

knowless's picture

i had never been to the yahoo boards, so never really got the reference when people would say things like "go back to yahoo" or whatever.. but they are seriously pointlessly, depressingly awful..

Peter Pan's picture

Has ZH  missed the latest from the International Swaps and Derivatives Association which says that the French plan would probably NOT trigger a default event?

It is clear we are in for a roller coaster of a ride and despite the best laid plans of mice and men, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. In other words, let's see if Greece can pay the interest bill on the new arrangement without seeing a further blowout in her debt levels.

Quintus's picture

That's only relevant to payouts (or not in this case) on CDS contracts.  

The main issue that the ECB and EU banks face is that holding securities with a 'D' rating on their books at par value is a step too far even in these days of mark-to-unicorn accounting standards.  Nor can they afford any writedowns on the aforementioned debt.

Never fear though, the ECB will simply ignore any rating agency that dares to rate Greek debt at 'D' and find one somewhere that rates it higher.  If they can't find such an agency they'll create one.  The weasels always have a way out of any sticky situation.

Sean7k's picture

Perhaps they have merely considered the source?

Captain Benny's picture

Is it just me or did anyone else think that equities rally last week was pretty unfounded considering there were no surprises in the Greek vote?  We all know it is a "default" that will occur unless they somehow magically redefine the word or make the deal so complicated that no human can understand it.  Will this week be the real downward move in equities as people realize they've been had once again by the TBTF?  I hope so...

Sean7k's picture

I continue to find these discussions hilarious. As if you can price something of value in terms of currencies that have little to no value and trade off perceptions of the relationship to each other.

The "traders" are trading paper. This is obvious in the Comex settlement process. Furthered by the revelation of 100 to 1 leveraging by the bullion banks.

The silver and gold in vaults are moving from registered. They are being allocated and transferred to safer locals. The withdrawls are mounting and in obscene amounts. One neglects to read the writing on the wall at their own expense.

The willingness of people to overlook counter-party risk for the sake of chasing a few more dollars is laughable. The willingness to overlook the obvious release of trading information to select players ahead of the public is dangerous. The willingness to believe in one's invulnerability as a master trader is karma.

Markets are manipulated, but they still exist. Therefore, the rules that guide them still hold. You can cheat real time markets by obscuring perception, but you cannot deny them forever. 

We are being given the gift of time because of the banker's need to hold down price and create a veneer of respectability for currencies. To refuse this gift, this bird in the hand for the two in the bush is the ultimate folly.

DosZap's picture

Holding Pm's in US allocated institutions is akin to self destruction.

I would even go so far as to remove ALL PM's from every SO called safe haven, even overseas vaults.

There are a few left, but if you cannot get to Switzerland, I would prefer to hold personally.

 

The Axe's picture

Talking my book:   Friday's GLD downdraft did look fake, but until GLD regains its 50 day moving average I will remain short via a vertical spread. I sense Germany and France will force the some of the PIGS to sell gold holdings to pay down debt. The dollar chart looks to have bottomed. But nice article.

The Axe's picture

Talking my book:  

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

bmovers, try going to the link most use: the message link on the stock page..they don't work.

thanks for your link lets see how long it stays up.

Peter Pan's picture

By the way, gold needs no supervision. With 5000 years of experience and immortality on its side, the long term result is a foregone conclusion. The only thing that pulls gold back from time to time is people who panic into selling it when there is a small movement to the downside which is then manipulated even further down by the JP Morgans of this world.

Jim in MN's picture

It's very telling how strong gold has been through the most recent couple of rounds of currency/exchange rate turmoil.

You have to average in to your long term physical holding targets.  High or low in the short term is pretty meaningless.  If you want 10% gold at retirement, BUY IT. 

If you don't, you might try...reading harder?

Again, for the 'record' my expectation is to hit 1:1 Dow:gold at 5,000 in the next 3 years.  Is that outside the 90% probablility band?  Are you hedged for it?

(professional traders pls disregard...oh you already did, thx)

DosZap's picture

Jm In MN,

Tell me pls sir.

What good is 10% held in Gold?.

When  your chances of losing 90% to inflation or default are almost a given?.

Since the rate of return on your frn's is Zero, really negative factoring in inflation in any instrument held or pushed by an FDIC institution.

Would anyone here be happy with only 10% of their total net worth, after a lifetime of savings?.

Not me.

 

Jim in MN's picture

There are many audiences reading.  10% is a traditional benchmark, typically only observed 'in the breach' these days, or more likely by the wealthy.  For the average professional reaching something like $100,000 in physical gold is a distant dream.  Therefore worth reinforcing/pursuing.

For others, the entire strategy is different, hard assets only.  Land, gold and certain other accoutrements of the neo-survivalist lifestyle. 

My only point was to keep price in perspective relative to one's own goals.  It might be unwise to postpone investment goals because of the fear of 'missing' a modest price correction.

DosZap's picture

Jim in MN,

Thanks for the clarificiation.

Much appreciated.

Southern_Poverty_Law_Center's picture

The amount of hysteria in these comments at "Zero Hedge" is quite alarming. Many of the comments imply that politicians and bankers are somehow benefiting at the expense of the masses in some vast and convoluted conspiracy. Of course, these childish conspiracy theories appeal only to an extreme minority of paranoid lunatics, but nevertheless we remain far from complacent. It is our duty to stop these dangerous views from spreading, and we will courageously expose this nonsense despite the innevitable verbal abuse and immature attacks that we will receive.

Internet Tough Guy's picture

Trolls should be clever, but you are a dull instrument. :(

magpie's picture

You are right, on the long run no one will profit from this vast and convoluted conspiracy.

wandstrasse's picture

on the long run

may I humbly correct: on a long enough timeline.

Sean7k's picture

There is probably nothing more inane and void of prescient thought than the cry of "conspiracy theory". To think that an uber wealthy group of like minds that meet on a regular basis(CFR, TRilateral Commission, Bilderberger, et al) are incapable of creating a uniform plan to determine policy for their own benefit is the height of stupidity.

Bay of Pigs's picture

We've heard this before somewhere haven't we?

Better get TMos to flush him out. I know who I think it is...

Trololololo..... 

Sean7k's picture

Ha! Troll hunter Mosley...

Peter Pan's picture

For a moment I thought you were serious.

DOT's picture

All your life you have been lied to by those that seek to control you. I suggest you read, learn and discover. 

 

BTW junked for refering to self in the plural.

Bohemian Clubber's picture

Am a member over there at the Bilderberg club. We see ourselves just like any other NGO, we like to think our organization core values are deeply humanistic at the root.

We love the human race so much sometimes it happens that we rape children all day long while shorting gold. Spread the love bitcheZZ

 

 

DosZap's picture

 Many of the comments imply that politicians and bankers are somehow benefiting at the expense of the masses in some vast and convoluted conspiracy.

 

Are they not?, it's easy to point out the contributions, and the bonuses that the Bankers recieve, and the purchasing of political favors with contributions has been pandemic for EVER.

And you call truth Hysteria?.

When you (if you are SPLC) , are on the same dole as they are I would be very hesitant to throw rocks here.

You are part of the problem, not the solution.

Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

I see the first two comments are from Fuck-Tards....

MiningJunkie's picture

The commentary in here is diametrically opposite to three weeks ago with Au pressing $1560. Same commentary for Ag is outright bullish as no one is even remotely thinking $75 Ag. Long $38 Ag calls at $.50 for a completely contrarian trade against all of this bearish sentiment.

Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Hey...Southern Pervert(Povert)   Fuck Off..

spartan117's picture

Tyler, are you ever going to give us an "ignore" button?  I read less and less of the comment section every day because of all the crap being posted.  That means less and less responses, and less and less "clicks" for your advertising income.  Place is getting trashy.

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

The comments/conversations in multiple threads over the weekend were the best I've seen in a year.  After silver crashed/burned and Turd's blog sucked away a lot of the goofy, doomer riff-raff, this place is actually beginning to remind me of the old ZH.  At least this weekend, anyway.  Time will tell.  

 

 

cranky-old-geezer's picture

Gold (and silver) price suppression is welcomed.  Bring it on.  More opportunities to load up cheap.

When SCO announces abandoning the US Dollar has been achieved, gold & silver will take off and there won't be any stopping it.