As Gold Hits An All Time High $1,432.57, Doug Kass May Need To Revise His "25% Lower" Call

Tyler Durden's picture

Just in time for silver to catch a breather, gold steps in, and hits a fresh all time high of $1,432.57. Alas since this price action is merely stragglers loading up as a semi-mute Cramer, who suddenly has no 100x fwd P/E momentum stocks to pitch, goes back to pushing gold. As such the spike is likely rather temporary (for now).

At least for those who care, and keep score, uber-market timer Doug Kass may have just burned his last ounce of credibility. As a reminder this is what we said back on December 21:

Last night Doug Kass appeared on CNBC's Fast Money and
caught the attention of the few who were watching the show with his
gloomy prediction that gold would drop by 25% in the next year. As we noted last night, Kass' "thesis" was nothing more than a recap of the bearish half of the "All that glitters"
letter released by Oaktree's Chairman Howard Marks, and not even a
mention of the bullish section of the letter. That's fine. In fact, we
welcomed this development as it at least partially offset the bullish
sentiment on gold espoused by Kass' partner at The Street Jim Cramer,
whose glowing recommendation of gold has had us very concerned about the
price action in the precious metal into year end: after all there is no
surer kiss of death that Cramer liking something. That said, as for Mr.
Kass' predictive abilities, we would like to present his prior set of
forecasts, specifically his prediction for 2010 issued a year ago almost
to the day. With a predictive "hit rate" of about 25%, it is rather
safe to assume that gold's path to $2,000 and higher is probably quite

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Math Man's picture

Wow.  Holy sh*t.  We broke the previous high by 7c!


Better keep buying.  It's going to the moon!

Never mind that the ETFs have completely disappeared from the scene and now sell gold, and the the Chinese - who everyone is relying on for Gold demand in the absence of the ETFs - keep tightening!

Keep buying silver too!  It's going to the moon!

Never mind that silver has run from $18 to $34 in a few months and its causing producers to hedge and pushing down the back end of the curve, leading to backwardation.

Lease rates are too high to incent any one to do anything about it, so the backwardation remains.

See you back at $1000 for gold and below $20 for Silver!

Hugh G Rection's picture

Math Man-


Are you bullish the Zimbabwe dollar?  I hear their stocks are looking solid.


The irony was funny for 10seconds, now you are just boring.

tmosley's picture

Yes, and those records keep breaking.  But you don't understand this.  You are in shock, as your knife catching habit has left you with bloody stumps where your arms once were.

And you literally know nothing about backwardation or hedging, so shut up about it.

Face it, dumbass.  You have no credibility here, not even the benefit of the doubt.  Time for a new name.  

Math Man's picture

So how does one get credibility around here?

Oh yeah that's right, by religiously belieiving conspiracy thoeories and placing 95% of your savings in one asset. 

When are you guys going to learn that never works.  Dot.coms, tulips, the housing market....

They all ended the same way.  Why should PMs be any different?


luk427's picture

Credibility is earned over time, never given or bought.

Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Good question. So all your Beach House doosch nozzle neighbors are double-long with PM's?? What about your family? They where too stupid to abort you, but where they smart enough to own PM's??  What percentage of people own PM's compared to, say, the percentage owning dot-com, tulips, ect>?

Hearst's picture

I suspect it's time to I gnore T he F ucking T roll like Meth Man



tmosley's picture

How does one gain credibility?

You can start by being right.  Preferably for years on end.  Highly public calls.  

Oh, and stop bragging about your possessions.  Only brag about your portfolio.  Disclose the whole thing, preferably by percentage.

BigJim's picture

He's told us he's bought well over 100 contracts SLV July @ $26. I've pointed out that SLV is not the same thing as silver, but he doesn't believe such 'conspiracy theories'

We shall see.

Math Man's picture

So if it's not the same thing, short it against your physical....

tmosley's picture

Despite the fact that no-one EVER wants to agree with a troll, this IS a good strategy.  One which I pointed out some time ago.  I don't do it personally, as I fear that the rules will be changed, plus I don't really care to fund a margin account, preferring to simply buy more silver.  I might change my tune if I can see the collapse of SLV coming.

DoctoRx's picture

Tmosley:  The collapse will come like a thief in the night.  They will allow no preparation.  TPTB and their allies will get the word in advance.

tmosley's picture

Exactly.  The point is that with a short, you get your money up front, and that should allow you to buy physical.  In practice, it doesn't work that way for the individual investor.

BigJim's picture

I'm considering it. Given the carry costs, and the uncertain timeline, I'm not yet convinced it's a better route to go than just buying more silver.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Math Man,

I agree with not putting 95% of your savings in one asset.  However, I'd like to see the overall allocation that households have to precious metals in comparison to equities and real estate.

I'd also urinate on you.

Blythes Master's picture



Agreed. Bad at math, man has zip cred.


When he figures out that his hedging, lease rate jibberish is all folly, and PM's will revert back to their 6000 year old role of real money, He'll still be bad at math, man.



Citxmech's picture

A track record better than Magic 8-Ball would be good for starters.

Backing up actual performance with some kind of  factual insight that acknowledges real-world fundimentals might help get you some credibility also.

BigJim's picture

I've got some news for you. Most speculators get rich by concentrating on relatively few asset classes. Diversification is for preserving wealth, not making it.

Comparing gold/silver with tulips, dot coms, and overpriced houses shows a remarkable ignorance of monetary history. Gold and silver have been valued for thousands of years. Fiat currencies? They all ended the same way. Why should the USD be any different?

As for dismissing price manipulation by TPTB as a 'conspiracy theory' - did you read the GATA article I posted for you? If so, then please present us your counterarguments against it; if not - then fuck off, troll.

rex-lacrymarum's picture

Gold fundamentals remain bullish:

it is therefore probably not a good idea to fight a technical breakout.

cranky-old-geezer's picture

"When are you guys going to learn that [placing 95% of your savings in one asset] never works."

This has got to be one of the most ignorant investing remarks I've ever heard.

It's the mindset of two classes of people: (1) those who watch charts all day, and (2) those who make commissions on securities sales, i.e. stockbrokers, etc.

He mentions dot.coms.  Putting 95% of your money in dot.coms was not putting 95% in one asset since was an asset class.  If you carefully studied company fundamentals (rather than looking at charts all day) putting 95% in one company you studied well could have been a fantastic wave ride while keeping the broader spectrum in sight.

He mentions Tulips.  Tulips was of course a massive fraud.  Only those who ignored daily price movements (charts of that time) and studied the underlying fundamentals saw it was a fraud and stayed out.  Daily price movement watchers were sucked in and lost everything.

He mentions housing.  Putting 95% in housing was not putting 95% in one asset since housing is an asset class.  If you carefully studied company fundamentals (rather than looking at charts all day) putting 95% in one company you studied well could have been a fantastic wave ride while keeping the broader housing spectrum in sight.

Silver & gold are market fundamentals plays, fundamentals are incredibly strong for those who understand the underlying fundamentals, but silver & gold look like bubbles to those merely looking at daily price movements not understanding the underlying fundamentals ...or ignoring the underlying fundamentas because they have an anti-PM bias.

StychoKiller's picture

Underlying fundamentals:

1. The Fed is STILL printing money (QE, call it what you will!), check.

2. The US Govt (at all levels) has NOT engaged in serious spending cuts, check.

3. Physical commodities are ALL rising in price, check.

4. NO ONE has even been arrested for mortgage fraud(s), check.

5. Housing prices have NOT bottomed out yet, check.

6. ME/NA countries are unstable (well, even more than usual), check.

7. The Chinese are building ghost cities, waiting for their real estate mania to pop, check.

8. Virtually no one in the USA is buying Gold/Silver (in fact, Cash4Gold is STILL in business!), check.

9. The Decepticrats and Republicons are heading into political gridlock, check.

10. HFT robots are STILL running the market(s) with no real oversight, check.

Yet somehow, we should ignore all these indicators, buy stocks/bonds and believe Gold/Silver are gonna fall in price??

I was born in the morning, but it was NOT this morning!


strannick's picture

You forgot the US$ when listing your ponzit schemes. Gold is what you measure the ponzis against.

'Religiously believing the conspiracy theories' has got gold decade-long double digit gains and no top in sight. I'll take that over the balanced diversifying bet-hedging bed-wetters anyday.

Dooouggiee Kassss, come out to playeeyaaa...

 MathMan is the rodeo clown for bulls to chase around. He should write John Nadler a supportive letter as his rationalizations get ever more shrill and high pitched with gold's relentless march.

'When you buy gold, you're betting against every central bank in the world'.

Dont just whine about Obama screwing up, bet on it by buying gold!

DiverCity's picture

Man of Math, who knows if gold's going to the moon?  I don't.  But you likewise don't know if it's going to $1,000 either.  ETF liquidation, by the way, can just as easily be explained as holders of size redeeming paper for physical.  And do you really believe that Chinese citizens or especially the Chinese CB have been buying gold as a hedge against yuan depreciation?

Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Gee, Meth Man, it just keeps proving you wrong. Perhaps tomorrow there will be a pullback. So what do you do for work? Are you employed? You seem really knowledgeable, so I was wondering from where do you hail?

Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

China can tighten until their ass makes diamonds, it wont matter. People buy with SAVINGS. Every hear of that word: SAVINGS? Prob, you don't know what it means....

DosZap's picture

China,and India know all about paper currencies.

Temporalist's picture

How can you be so stupid as to not understand that even as the ETFs sell and the spot of gold/silver goes up that is even MORE BULLISH?  They can sell and still not suppress the price valued in magical green paper.

Silver also ran from $4 to $8 to $16 to $32 and it's still going higher.


Math Man's picture

Oh yeah, that is right.  I totally forgot.

Everything is bullish for PMs on Zerohedge.

Even selling.

Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

So what are you bullish on, there, Mr. Meth?

Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

what about GEN? I saw GEN in their first, lol!

ColonelCooper's picture

The big problem with you, Math Man (johnny, master, whoever you call yourself today) is that you're wrong until you're right.  Please continue to forecast your opinion that PM is going down.  We all appreciate that.  But you have ZERO credibility to date, because you have not been right and you're calling a group of people stupid who are MAKING MONEY HAND OVER FIST. 

Some of us will take profits, some of us will hold until armageddon.  But as long as metal goes up, and currencies go down, you are still wrong.  Or at the very least, giving you the benefit of the doubt, you aren't right YET.  You may be making money in the markets, and if so, good for you.  But that doesn't mean bugs are missing out on earnings.  Even you can't deny it's been a helluva run.  Even if silver did go to 20, (really doubt it) has it ever occurred to you that most of the people you're bitching at would average out JUST FUCKING FINE?  The bugs may be wrong (I personally have bet a lot that we aren't) someday, but as of today, ESPECIALLY today, we are still right, and you are still wrong. 

Get it?  Or are you just a troll?  I guess I already know the answer, so I don't know why I wasted five minutes of my time that could have been better spent printing rifle targets with your name and avatar on them.

RockyRacoon's picture

The Taurus Judge is a fine gun.  Got one of them myself.

Those .410 slugs do some damage.

Citxmech's picture

How's that working out for you?

Temporalist's picture

The ETFs are actually redeeming their shares for physical so it's not actually selling they are basically being sucked dry of all their underlying asset value for a song.

DosZap's picture

Yep,the Chinese have figured out a way to get even with Bernank bucks.On both metals.

ETF heaven.

Citxmech's picture

PMs have been in a bull market for 10 years now.  Are there signs of froth?  Let's see:  Out of control money printing?  Check.  Major worldwide conflicts?  Check.  Banking collapse?  Check.  Fraud in the metals markets?  Check... 

I could keep going, but you should get the point.  Can you name one fundimental that points toward an imminent PM drop?