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Gold Ignores Dollar Strength, Rushes To New All Time High
Very jumpy equities today. SPY trading like a penny stock all morning, and now gold rushing to an all time high: was India's IMF purchase just the starter gun for all CBs to "get involved." Also, anyone hearing any fun rumors regarding UBS?
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weird...
TOTALLY EXPECTED.
"As participants of all stripes across the global financial marketplace continue to chatter on incessantly about the topic of “runaway inflationary pressures” and the, allegedly imminent, “collapse of the US Dollar,” we at Fibozachi turn our attention toward the upcoming FED meeting and its FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) announcement, due for public release Wednesday afternoon at 2:15 pm. We, bond markets and the $DXY (US Dollar Index) each seem to be anticipating many far-reaching implications from Uncle Ben and Co. about the winding down of QE (Quantitative Easing), essentially the open spigot force providing full fire hose-like liquidity the world over.
Over the course of the next two weeks, we at Fibozachi will present a series of analyses that detail both the technical and fundamental landscapes of gold, silver, copper, oil, the CRB (Commodity Index), the US Dollar, the EURO and the remaining major currencies of the G8 (the “Group of Eight”) in relation to one another. After examining Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) yesterday, and to presage the bulk of our upcoming series, today we present an initial look into the technical composition of silver..."
Silver: Hangin' On by a SliverThe question is whether the markets any longer believe the Fed. Announcement of ending quantitive easing? maybe true but maybe not. It's likely the Fed was involved in QE long before their March 18th announcement. Will the markets really believe that it is ending or is it just more devious behavior. The Gold price in the days after will be an indicator of trust. I think trust is history.
The question is whether the markets any longer believe the Fed. Announcement of ending quantitive easing? maybe true but maybe not. It's likely the Fed was involved in QE long before their March 18th announcement. Will the markets really believe that it is ending or is it just more devious behavior. The Gold price in the days after will be an indicator of trust. I think trust is history.
Energy that has built up must be dispersed.
http://highfrequency.tumblr.com/
Going good. They should have it down to 600 an ounce in another couple of months easy as it's very obvious that there's just NO demand for the stuff.
The UBS rumor hmm. America got it's metal playing bank NUKED so I guess it's now europes turn?
The Chinese got turned down by the IMF but the Indians didn't? hmmmm...
Ya the chinese have a big enough military to get mad when you sell them fake gold. So they probably dumped it off on india.
joink! suckers....
I guess this explains the down tick in the .DXY at the same time. Equities showed no real response. Someone is playing games.
I shorted it. We'll see if I get treated like the "Pwned Ranger".
Do you really want to experience bankruptcy?
It appears that no one can short either stocks or gold
now due to US$ carry trade.
dollar carry is a big factor in gold price
build up....it has a lot of upside potential
since it was (and is) suppressed so much...
on inflation adjusted and supply terms it has a
ways to go...
stocks are already so over-priced that i doubt
they would benefit as much but i would not be
surprised to see them sustained at current
levels for an extended period of time...
it just depends on how much green shoots elixir
is flowing out the back of obama's ass...
Do it at your own peril but listen and perhaps learn from someone who got burned thinking gold was toppy.
I shorted gold from December to February and got my ass handed on a golden platter. Serves me right.
Ever since I'm long gold and gold stocks and now jumping into some more small caps.
Gold is GOLDEN. We are entering a new GOLDEN AGE.
The paper funny money era is about done.
I hear Santelli arguing with Liarman...
Liarman got his ass handed to him. Although he did not realize this, of course. My god that man is stupid.
Something's gotta give.
Let's light this candle.
maybe a blow off rally to squeeze shorts????
I am sure I will take heat for that comment.
Is it real. One entity shorting 30% off world production. May be it is left to rest of the world to get rid of them.
And they've sure as all hell squeezed me out of positions before.
Payback, she is a bitch.
Squeeze them until their ears bleed.
Very good post. Many thanks
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm
does that confirm half the open position in silver is short?
Wow. Thanks for sharing. I was aware of the data set due to Ted Butler's articles on silverseek, but had not kept up with it.
Change from Sep to Oct. is interesting. US shorts increased 28%. Just when you thought it was ridiculous, it gets even more so. I wonder if they are squeezing themselves, or are other [possibly foreign] entities happy to lend a helping hand?
Agree that something is very wrong when 1 or 2 US banks can be short such a huge share of the market. Our taxpayer $ at work....
However, barring default, those of us in Ag will be laughing all the way to the bank if/as they cover. I don't think it's going to work out for the banks this time.
Oct. silver data
Banks Long % Short % Open Interest
10/06/09 CMX SILVER U.S. 2 38 0.0 38,375 29.1 131,801
NON U.S. 10 2,174 1.6 2,400 1.8
---- --------- ---- --------- ----
12 2,212 1.7 40,775 30.9
09/01/09 CMX SILVER U.S. 2 13 0.0 29,888 28.0 106,671
NON U.S. 13 7,015 6.6 2,270 2.1
---- --------- ---- --------- ----
15 7,028 6.6 32,158 30.1
URL? Author? Any identifying marks whatsoever?
I am Chumbawamba.
Sorry.
Sep. silver data - http://www.cftc.gov/dea/bank/deasep09f.htm
Oct. silver data from the link provided in surfersd's comment - http://www.cftc.gov/dea/bank/deaoct09f.htm
I Googled some of the text. It's Ted Butler's October 21 comment. Only available directly via subsciptions but reposted in a few places.
Think what will happen to those banks, if the physical delivery being booked.
It was also really nice of the IMF to wait until the gold options expired before announcing this sale. Anything to help out Chase.
The real is the enemy of the fake.
When gold broke broke hard above the 300 level years ago JPM was short a massive amount of calls. History repeating itself?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SupdMcnyqKI/AAAAAAAAKLU/EFalk8UztR...
I'm not hearing any UBS rumors but I'd love to throw out a conjecture. Big wealthy client/govt withdraws big gold position today. Since asking for physical delivery of gold (unless you're buying from the IMF) is a tricky affair, you've got gold shooting up as the client/gov negotiates for their gold while folks close to the transaction trade around it.
I believe as long as I'm conjecturing and not actually rumor mongering, my story will start with the presummption its these gentleman who are after their gold: http://theaterofmine.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/beavis_butthead_extract.jpg
The problem with this idea is that silver took off with gold.
Looks more like short cover to me.
However, it look as if the world has sent a big "Fuck you, Treasuries" loud and clear.
So is this a short squeeze essentially? Why today?
What UBS rumour?
Read this an weep. We are the ones that are short.
http://community.marketwatch.com/groups/small-silver-investor/topics/jp-...
Don't make it more complicated than it is. Gold is pure equity. If the debt-service serfs stop paying the fiat casino is closed.
India was just the first player to cash in their chips for real money.
Steve Liesman's "why should we care" about the dollar comment ranks among the dumbest I've ever heard on business television.
Let's see: virtually all net new jobs created in this country over the past 30 years were created by small and medium size businesses. Small businesses especially do virtually all transactions in dollars and are getting crushed by a weak dollar. It's no wonder each successive post-recession period in the past 25 years has seen a weaker labor market recovery from the prior one. Mr. Liesman and his like-minded weak dollar buddies seem (I'm not saying this is the case, just attempting to interpret their thinking) to be implying that it's a good thing that millions of jobs have been lost by a weak dollar and that millions more jobs will be lost over the coming decades because of a weak dollar policy.
As an American, I find it insulting that other Americans get excited about the millions of jobs we've lost in this country as a result of a weaker dollar, simply so that the larger multi-nationals can export more.
i whole heartedly concur with your conclusion which
is why i pray that the angel of death will fly
over the white house, the rockefeller / rothschild
den of iniquity, and corporate america....
it's planned - not an accident....the plutocrats
have seized control of our lives and most are
too stoopid to see it....and the remainder all
too happy to help it....
"Steve Liesman's "why should we care" about the dollar comment ranks among the dumbest I've ever heard on business television"
No...I think that includes sitcoms AND talkshows
Another way to say it is that gold will be (and is becoming again) the world's reserve currency...conspiracy theories aside, gold and silver values will rise as the world scrambles to exchange its fiat currencies for real assets.
Does the gold price, US$ 1,046, paid by India government become the floor? Very interesting!
UBS still loosing fiat currency....
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/1103/breaking13.htm
Nice post Surfer----silver shorts will be crapping silverware
More like buying up junk electronics to recover the silver back out of the solder. I always knew the silver market would puke first but I just can't see how gold market would be more than a couple days to a month behind.
Well, if they bought up junk electronics they would be sorely disappointed at the lack of silver in the solder, finding mostly tin and lead instead.
I am Chumbawamba.
You mean silver, copper and zinc but mostly zinc. Tin and lead solder is for like making stain glassed windows.
folks are probably starting realize that gold is in severe and permanent backwardation - the deceits of the comex and lbma being exposed.....
gold backwardation means that derivative instruments must evaporate....too complicated to explain here but that is the conclusion....
on the other hand, i wouldn't make too much of the spike since these things come and go....however, it is large even in the face of a dollar rally...the take away is that one day's rise does not make a trend....
last time this happened someone demanded physical delivery and lbma defaulted....so there may be another delivery default in the works....
Tyler..i have not heard of a UBS fun rumor..could you pls start one?
Gold moving up on dollar strength? And Mr. Buffett buying a railroad AFTER this huge runup, and at a premium?
Does somebody know something not public? Looks like a lot of getting out of dollars, just when liquidity seems the prudent course.
Interesting.
Interesting that people are getting out of dollars while the inflation rate MIGHT still be below 20%???
Once we start seeing some real inflation, the race to the exits will be instantaneous. Don't be too shocked if you wake up one morning and your dollars are worth 40 or 90% less than they were yesterday in terms of real assets like gold, silver, food, gas, etc. If we're LUCKY they will collapse the system in a slow and orderly fashion like they have done so far, and a few of the smarter people who still know how to read will be able to hedge aginst the real possibility of collapse.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value -- zero"
I hope y'all followed my advice yesterday and bought Gold - preferably a shitload, I might add.
In other news, Robert Prechter was bankrupted today - AGAIN.
GG, you are absolutely correct. I have bought some more
since last week. I am still buying this week. It is
a long way to go up.
Gold 25.00^
EWI has been pointing to a possible touch of the upper trendline channel at $1100 for awhile now.
OMGZ ALLCAPS LOLZOR!!
Bought more *today*, alas. Am I too late? Is it all over???? ;-)
God it sux buying metals only when I have the money for it. Where the hell did I leave that Amex card! I had it as a coaster for awhile there...
blow off top in gold, be very careful. all momo, people ignoring dollar strength
bernanke to crush gold to save jpm
We've been hearing that since - what? - $300/ounce? ROTFL!
In reverse thinking, maybe JPM is saving brother
Bernanke.
T, in your dream, sorry.
gold has risen today (so far) in the face of
relative dolar strength....
bernanke has basically lost control of gold
although not entirely.....the failed delivery
of gold in lbma in september is proof....
also, barrick has left open the possibility of
accelerating its "hedges" (if you could even call
that craphead strategy hedging) buy backs...if
implemented it would put an upward pressure on
gold price....barrick acknowledged recently
that the price is going higher - the reason for
its altered plans (after exiting its altered
state of mind).....
I do not think this is a shortsqueeze. More like a bulltrap in gold and oil. Expecting the dollar to rally very soon.
So I take it that the COT Report and Bank Participation Report are both bullcrap?
Rumors on UBS? That is my biggest nightmare, 5x Swiss GDP, they continue to lose clients in the private bank,
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/61d7e148-8f15-11dd-946c-0000779fd18c.html?ncli...
“The core private banking franchise still seems to be hurting,” said Florian Esterer, who helps manage about $49 billion at Swisscanto Asset Management in Zurich. “The money outflows are still bad across all divisions.”
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Switzerland’s largest bank, fell the most in two months in Swiss trading after redemptions by wealthy clients accelerated in the third quarter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2h0MQoC4nR8&pos=2
What is the rumor?
Tyler asks above: "Also, anyone hearing any fun rumors regarding UBS?"
Other than the expected exodus in their private bank, I hope none, UBS is too big to save.
As is, then, Switzerland?
That's Obama's fault.
He messed with the Swiss and their banking secret.
The money is going somewhere else now. The Swiss should have given Obama the national middle finger and said "screw you" and "fuck off".
So where is the money hiding now?
The British commonwealth realms. Cayman Islands, Virgin Islands, Bahamas, etc. The major banks down there are affiliates of large British and American banks. The Us government wants people out of the swiss franc and hold dollars in US/UK controlled Caribbean banking centers.
Ok, I'm agog, whats the rumour? Is it the UBS for sale rumour? Cos thats well old.
Anyone have any idea why DXY and gold/oil have taken separate paths this morning?
Simple.
Everyone is dumping their equities and oil for gold.
There's a glut of oil and all players know it. Equities are overpriced.
Gold has a long way to go.
I speculate that the IMF-RBI 200T gold sale was a way to rescue the LBMA. Per various recent reports at goldseek.com, the LBMA has found itself short of physical gold. If the LBMA has a secret understanding with the RBI to lease some of these 200T, then it can honor the physical deliveries being requested of it.
Needless to say, a gold lease from the RBI to the LBMA, rather than from the IMF to the LBMA, would involve far less scrutiny.
A precedent for this--a "central bank" rescuing a private party short physical gold--took place this March, it seems. The ECB seems to have rescued Deutsche Bank, who had been short gold in the COMEX; as noted by Rob Kirby, at that time the ECB disclosed selling about 1M oz of gold (to whom?) AND Deutsche Bank reported delivering about 0.85M oz to the COMEX (where did it get the gold?).
This week, the same may be happening--just substitute IMF for ECB, and LBMA for Deutsche Bank, with the RBI just being a silent channel.
Very interesting train of thought. If accurate, it might explain why the sale was made to India vs. China or Russia. Doubt that the latter two would be interested in gold leasing, or selling a part of the purchase.
Pretty sure that the India IMF story came out last night, so why wait on the big gold move until this morning??
It appears that someone in Asia reacted in a less than cordial fashion...
Maybe they found out their dollar reserves weren't quite as 'liquid' as they thought they were.
ha-ha!
Its all going according to plan. So, with that plan according my friends as you know what is coming.
______________
November 3, 2009 -- Best-selling author Daniel Estulin states that the key issue to be discussed this week at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, being held in St. Andrews, Scotland, is how to bring down the present world financial system through dumping the US dollar. Estulin first reported on this initiative as being deliberated at the most recent Bilderberg meeting held in Greece in May 2009. Estulin says that the success or failure of this callous plan hinges on the ability of the US and UK representatives to convince the Russian, the Chinese and other national governments to go along with their scheme.
Estulin maintains that if the co-conspirators succeed, such sudden devaluation of the US dollar would result in the sinking of the world economy through a chain-reaction collapse of the entire world’s financial system. As discussed during the Bilderberg Group’s super-secret conclave back in May, this breakdown would then be used as an excuse to launch a new world monetary system. G20 leaders are aware that those who run the monetary markets, the monetary system, control the world. That is why today, the world is run through a dominant one-currency monetary system and not by national credit systems.
A severe breakdown crisis would affect every corner of the world and be a prelude to instability, wars and general hostility along financial, geographical and geopolitical lines, affecting not only particular countries but also societies, cultures and whole continents. Such a breakdown could result in a consolidation of the world’s monetary system.
Estulin declares that the creation of the new world currency is the true meaning of globalization, which is nothing but an empire. It is the elimination of the nation-state, the degradation of individual national liberties and the depredation of civil rights.
Collapsing the US dollar, first of all, is an assault on the structure of the United States economy toward the creation of a “World Company.” This concept, Estulin states, was initially discussed at the April 1968 Bilderberg Group meeting, held in Canada at Mont Trembland, by George Ball, a senior Lehman Brothers banker and former undersecretary for economic affairs for Presidents John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson.
The aim of this World Company, as explained by Ball was “to eliminate the archaic political structure of nation-state” in favor of the more “modern” corporate structure. Ball also called for further political integration in Europe, and then the rest of the world, as a precondition for expanding the power of a World Company, thus putting the financiers on the same levels as governments.
This initiative, the moving away from the US dollar as a world currency, is the true intention of the G20 meeting November 6-7 at St. Andrews in Scotland, the site of the 1998 Bilderberg conference, Estulin asserts.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/G-20/US_Dollar/prweb3150584.htm
estulin spake sooth.....
this is planned. the anti-christ is coming to
spread death....but he shall not prevail....his
foe conquored death....
I guess the IMF gold sale to India ticked off the China Gold Dragon. Who said the USA has no class? GS?
Laksmi Mittal's daughter getting married again? Sudden need for more gold in India!
lol
My prediction for POG by end of this year $1200, end of next $1500 and by 2012 sometime $2500.
Buy on the dips and buy physical if you get your hands on it.
easy play long gold short silver JPM clean up. wish you had thought of it? weak regulators again not controlling market players.
Silver Silver Silver....
Yes, the King lives!
I calculated out 200 tonnes @ $6.7 billion to $950/oz. The articles state $1050/oz. Could anyone else do the calculation and see which number is right?
Are you using troy ounces?
1 ounce = 0.911458333 troy ounces1 kilo = 32.1507 troy ounces (oz)
200 metric tons = 200,000 kilos = 6,430,140 oz
$6.7 billion for 200 metric tons = $6.7/6,430,140
= $1041.97/oz.
This would seem to be the new floor for gold prices. Had the RBI bought in the open market, it would have pushed gold prices far higher.
Gold is the new oil. The next casino pump and dump for the big boys.
does anyone know what currency india is using to pay for the golden purchase?
rupees? dollars? SDRs? euros? seashells?
all of the above?
India Times suggests it's SDRs that India received earlier this year.
In its official release, IMF has said that the total sales proceeds are equivalent to US$ 6.7 billion or SDR 4.2 billion. MD Dominique Strauss-Kahn indicated that the proceeds from the gold sale will help the Fund, step up much-needed concessional lending to the poorest countries.
As for the central bank, there is no official communication either being the intent of such a move or its plans for the purchased gold. But experts say the move could help the central bank diversify its reserves and would not have a significant impact on the overall foreign exchange reserves position, said a former top RBI official.
This is because these purchases are reckoned to be carried out from the $4.8 billion worth SDR allocation that the RBI had obtained from the Fund earlier this year. The IMF had allocated $4.8 billion by way of general allocation of special drawing rights (SDR) — the reserve currency with the IMF — in August this year as part of its SDR 161.2 billion package allocated to member countries.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bullion/RBI-buys-200-mt-gold...
thanks puff...very interesting it is SDRs they're using, considering the other 3 BRiCs have been calling for a revaluation to something more balanced.
and also very interesting that they are getting a tangible asset in return for something they received essentially for 'free' from the same institution a couple months ago.
this SDR stuff is taking the shell game into another dimension entirely.
it's like the anti-gold, the ultimate derivative.
...so...the IMF basically gave the gold to India? I don't understand.
yes it is quite bizarre, isn't it?
check this one out:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/11/freegold.html
also, india's reserves were (and still are) very low on gold on a % basis.
I figured when I heard India bought about half the IMF sale amount that it would have a big impact. I also have to believe the remaining IMF sale quantity is already spoken for / bought and paid for, we just don't know who it was yet.
So much for the notion that the IMF sale (yacked about for how many years now?) would have a negative impact on the gold market.
GO baby GO, I'm long for the foreseeable future. --->> Thanks to George, Barrack, Inky Ben, and Turbo Timmy
Hell, Lets just print some more $$$$ boys!
Maybe I'll buy some 30 year treasuries at 3-4%, or not!
ROFLOL
northwest territorial mint 8 to 12 week backlog for delivery of silver bullion