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Gold Market Commentary: Buyer Of 2,000 December 1,800 Calls Emerges
From FMX Connect
Summary
April Gold settled at $1343.00 per 100 troy ounces, a gain of $5.80 for the day, after swinging from $8.00 up to $7.00 down and back. Volatility was unchanged in the backs and lower in the fronts. Call Skew and Call Tails increased.
Active Options
J 1250 P trds 7.5 with futures 1000x
Z 1800 C trds 13.5-14 2000x
J 1500 C trd 1.70-2.20 1500x
Analysis: Skew firmed up today with calls being bought in December and August. Puts were sold in April, June, August and October. Volatility was roughly unchanged on the day but there is a definite change in tenor in risk reversal trading. This was in large part a reaction to a fund buying December 1800 Cs live, approx. 2000 times. Moving forward, nothing about today’s action gives a directional hint except that December calls are being bought once again.
Commentary: The market opened very strong and then washed out, looking like a trend day lower. The bounce through unchanged came on the back of the December call buying. Our guess is that call buyer was also positioning himself in futures. Whether he’s right or not, we don’t know. Right now we are sticking to our guns and don’t expect to see volatility pop until we settle above 1346 or below 1325.
ATM Volatility Curve:
Volatility Smile:
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GOLD Bitchez !!
Sorry couldn't resist ... lol
FMX Connect posted almost exact postionings this morning. You got wet for nothing.
Is your point that there is no buyer of December calls?
He has no point. He's goldenmiddelfinger under a new pseudonym. Just a drive by troll.
butt out
No, you can just fuck off, sock puppet boy.
Wrong. Goldstinkfinger would regail us with tales of his wealth, his book, his ex wives etc. This dumbshit it, as you have said before:
CRAPPIEST TROLL YET.
FMX Connect posted almost exact postionings this morning.
Learn how to read, shit-for-brains.
It clearly says "From FMX Connect" at the top of the article.
+1
Help me out here, please. Didn't somebody (other than the exchange) take the other side of these trades? Couldn't one also say, "Skew firmed up today with calls being sold in December and August. Puts were bought in April, June, August and October.
Disclosure statement: I am not a metals options trader, only a horse trader.
dupe
lol
For the Gold Douchebags here, let me tell you, this price discovery sickens me like it did in 2003 when gold was trying to break $300, or 2004 when gold was breaching $400.
Figure it out...we're going a lot higher.
Way off topic, but thought this might interest you:
An exchange-traded fund designed to track Egypt is open for business, and has been drawing in money, even though the Egyptian stock market remains closed amid antigovernment protests.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703445904576118080946356122.html
BTW: I won't get wet until true price discovery occurs, then I might wet on you. So watch out ...lol
william the bastard: whisperings in the night as once again, a fucktard speaks.
you rock!
from memory their was a huge offer at 1300
all markets have bubbled out.
Seemingly very bullish, but do we know the identity? average volume for these contracts?
But look at the skew.
This doesn't mean shit.
Yo !
TD, hearing rumors of the commodities (CME chicago) markets will be closed tomorrow because of the snow ! seriously ??????????
whats the scoop ??
will there be any price discovery tomorrow ?
sarc/
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/weather/snowfall/monthly-snowfall.html ?
They were just talking about it on Faux Business a few minutes ago !
Wasn't watching foxy news.
I'm just trying to build a joke around the line
but I haven't quite worked it out.
watcher there are snow related futures/options trading on the CME = In you guessed it ! (snow accumulation derivatives) !? Huh ?
"But there is a market to trade derivatives tied to snowfall amounts"
Since last winter, the company that owns the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has offered a market for businesses and investors to trade futures and options — they also are known as derivatives — tied to the amount of snow that falls during a set time span.
Tim Andriesen of CME Group, which also runs other weather-based markets, said the snow-based derivatives have not tended to attract thrill-seeking gamblers looking to put a bet on something unpredictable — Mother Nature's roulette wheel.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-talk-snow-money-0202-20110201,0,5567024.story
Thought you were crazy eh ! ?
Weather trading is not a new concept, Enron was one of the first to offer it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SniNbnoc8Lw
Holy shit... this is retarded.
Sweet. How expensive is a snow-making machine? I wanna do a Paulson!
The Bernank can overcome the blizzard with his mouse wheel.
but I haven't quite worked it out.
try: '24 hour price freeze due to snow' or '24 hour snow due to frozen prices'
I'm going long galoshes.
I thought the big Land Rovers w/ Bizzaks could make it through anything.
They can, but not with latte sipping market fags driving them
Bwah ha ha ha ha! That is exactly what I think when I see someone driving a LR/RR. That and that wealth does not equal car-choosing smarts... (LR/RR are some of the biggest POS cars on the road. If I had a gold eagle for every day one of my clients LR/RR was in the shop for mechanical or computer problems I would be at home with a Sheen-like brick of coke critiquing porn.)
I guess the $ is going down, gold is going up, and commodities are inflating ad infinitum. Last weeks marubozu candle got snuffed out in two days. Its a pattern. $100 billlion per month.
you can see that in the AUD insanity crosses, China RRR hike in Feb 2011 should do the job.
"April Gold settled at $1343.00 per 100 troy ounces"
How can I get in on that deal?
but...but...it was only 2 calls! I am so scroomaged!
grains flying AH
No kidding...after hours is going nutso..
wheat, soybeans, etc headed back to 08 hi s
copper BO
I whipmed out and stepped away 2 hrs ago. Waiting for a short term correction..then another big pop...or I'll be wrong and by Friday things will be out of sight.
Bruce was saying bond market was signalling 60 percent inflation over the next 6 months In one of his posts last month. I'd listen to him.
I don't know...the contrarian in me screams sideways (at least) for ~6 months. Am I vapor-locking myself?
UF
Dollars work on magic. The M2 is simply derived from price of gold. There are far far more dollars than M2 signals there are due to manipulation of price of gold which is really just manipulation of people's willingness to use it as money or percieve what it really is.
It's like having a disk duplicator store twice as much data on one disk. Only the dollar stores twice to 3 times as much wealth in each dollar.
When comex busts or slows deliver down to rediculous untennable permanent backwardation. The wealth duplicator loses it's compression and it projectile vomits all over everyone.
We go from bank closings rising at rapid pace to government closings rising at rapid pace. It all passes through people as a power rush euphoria so it lulls down at each big event. I think though India is set for market crash and revolution. Canada like america is building up a big volcanic event. The outliers have to blow and stabilize or else if they don't when america blows it will just be one big giant pool of blood and brains smeared all over the concrete.
Sideways just won't happen unless it's a timing event to reduce damage. This is all controlled sort of by pluto in capricorn. So saturn timing will schedule when the changes occur as everyone revolutionizes what government really is and how it really works. Timing has been done quite a bit and will be done quite a bit this year but it will be much more rapid and pulsy. So you can view it as sort of sideways if you think about an earthquake shaking back and forth. How awfull it get's just being defined by how much resistance government wants to generate. Things are pretty good right now but stressors are rising.
how does the math work on that please?
10 percent a month every month for 6 months.
Wow, a gold thread and yet I hardly understand ANYTHING of most of the above! Below I can understand.
Fortunately Bearings are never accused of being brainy, kind of the opposite actually. But, Bearings don't trade either, so they don't understand professional trader jargon. Bearings just roll when they're pushed, that's about it...
Don't forget the lube!
.
.
Rolling Bearings like NLGA Grade 2 grease, mmm, mmm good! If you expect rough rides or other extreme shocks, make sure there is moly in it...
Damn. I just ran out of ground moly. I'll have to put my OKCupid pic back up.
http://i.imgur.com/Hz34O.jpg
tMolly is like handling high explosives, no? We can't go on likr this, take away the premise of freedom and price becomes meaningless.
Bearings as metaphors for life and snappy comebacks from coons. Only on ZH!
Geez, i am still working on "Being Human for Dummies!".
I am Dumshit!
Naw, you just need to pick up "Bearing Humor for Dummies" and youll show those guys a thing or two!
$1800 gold this year wouldn't surprise me at all.
Eric Sprott says $2150 by end of spring...and $50 silver.
That would certainly surprise a lot of people.
Link?
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/28_Eric_Sprott_-_Expect_$50_Silver,_Gold_Possibly_$2,150_by_Spring.html
Spring 2011? Whoa! Egypt and the Russian wheat harvest and hunger could make things go crazy.
B.O.P., I don't think 50.00 silver and much higher gold would suprise you. I do think you would smile just the same.
If this guy hedged his long calls by selling futures (as the article suggests saying that the guy posititoned himself in the futures), then this isn't really a bullish bet. this position has a much greater chance of making money to the downside (as he could buy his futures back cheaper, plus vol would spike to the downside, plus the curve would flatten and raise calls relative to puts). If the futures rallied to 1800 (and he is hedged, which I'd bet he is), then he'll lose on those futures all the way up to 1800, and while he'll make on the calls, it won't be enough for a long time. The vol will come in hard, and the curve will steepen and make call values go down and puts will increase in value. Buying those calls looks bullish, but unless we know that he's not short futures(and on what delta), we can't really say where his position makes money. But if he's hedged, it makes much more, much quicker to the downside.
We believe the fund was buying calls and buying futures, not hedging. The sellers were marketmakers. Dealers were strangely absent from the sell-side. all sellers hedged by buying futures.
then yes, that sounds bullish. thanks for the clarification. I assumed you meant he hedged when you said he "was positioned in the futures." Instead he Texas hedged.
One side of trade will never tell you the direction of the bet.
A purchase of calls it not always bullish...
As long as the printing press is running and the monkey is hitting the 0 button at the Fed, to the moon we go...
Just some thoughts about wheat.
Egypt imports about 7 mm tons of wheat (60% of consumption) annually. (CIA FACT BOOK 2010)
Due to fires,floods etc, Russia (Egypt's biggest supplier) has cancelled all exports and a 600,000 ton order for Sept deliver has been deep sixed. How is Egypt going to feed its 81 million people (with one fastest population growth rates in the world at3% per year) without an exporter or foreign reserve funds.
I see QE3 coming to save the Egyptian people and drive the price of oil to $100/bbl rice up limit, corn up limit and wheat back to all time highs.
America is the only exporter of wheat at this time and new aid tied to new orders are likely.
Just a thought.
"How is Egypt going to feed its 81 million people"
Cant they just buy some grain futures and take the option for delivery ?
sarc/
You cant eat paper !
Not sure what could be more bullish for precious metals than ETF's selling off while physical becomes scarcer.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/UPDATE-1-Main-gold-silver-targetukfocus...
Move to physical?
Methinks so.
FOFOA raises and discusses just that issue re the GLD and selling off part of its stock in his latest column. FOFOA says that is bullish.
fofoa.blogspot.com
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/01/who-is-draining-gld.html
This is a must read for anyone with any concerns that we have not seen a bottom.
Brilliant insight.
Excellent post, thanks.
any aussies on here?
the biggest cyclone in history is about to take out Queensland...check your weather maps.
sugar up on this
http://www.metrolic.com/monster-killer-storm-heading-toward-australia-15...
and those moron margin and investment bank traders over-bidded the AUD!!?
Good luck Australia, and those of us who are believers (Christians) are likely praying for Australia as well.
Dig in mates!
Thanks cobbers!
She'll be right, mate. Long AUD , we'll be baaaaccckckk....aaaargghhhhhhhhh!
>...................
>> those of us who are believers (Christians) are likely praying for Australia as well.
I don't think Christianity is a prerequisite for praying for Australia, or anything else for that matter.
I tried prayer but I found that Sports Illustrated SwimSuit edition worked better to handle things over which i have less than zero control.
175mph winds; oh crap.
My folks flew out of RIC to catch a flight to Sydney for a three-week vacation Down Under. Could be a very "interesting" trip! Meanwhile, a balmy 65 here in the River City.
Smart! very smart. Ref; the article Author.
Reuters says the present storm will cause damage to US wheat and cattle markets. Oklahoma and Texas with 10 to 12 degrees and gusts up to 30mph will kill a lot of cattle. I expect to loose 10 to 15 percent of my herd this week. Expect beef and wheat to go up. That may impact our exports.
I cannot be a hypocrite and recommend buying anything to the bitchez community without actually intending to buy it myself.
I am allowed to say I am HOLDING physical gold and DBA ("paper food" ETF) bitchez!
sorry for the thread interference. Your xau argument does hold water. Looking out for my Aussie friends. Cyclones and all. Best wishes.
Why have you stopped buying? There is no fundamental limit to the utility of gold or silver, so any limits on accumulation should either be a function of affordability, or are simply arbitrary.
Even if I had a billion dollars worth of gold or silver, I would still be buying, even if it was a few thousand at a time, unless I needed the money for a higher utility investment.
tmosley,
-- I have reached 10% of my wealth (total assets owned by my nuclear family) in PMs. It is enough. In 2006, before my stepped up buying I was at 2% or so.
-- I also want to take at least a pause, and show that I am not an addict.
-- I retain the right to change my mind in the future.
-- My wife won't let me buy any more.
You tell me which of the above reasons are good ones.
-- E.) None of the above.
Buy a fifth of your favourite 80 proof adult beverage.
Buy the lingerie you REALLY want to see your Wife in.
Buy some fat cigars or a pack of your favorite cigarettes (go ahead, you are going to die anyway).
Buy some gold and silver coinage; buy in $599 or less increments if in U.S. (to avoid that pesky ten ninety nine) and lay it on the bed; a candle burning in a sconce, champagne, and a dozen roses off to the side (NOT on the bed, you might regret those stems there).
Give her the fever.
If all else fails, twenty years from now when you kick the bucket and she opens the safe deposit box that tangible insurance and presence/memory will be worth every penny.
does your wife still sleep with you, if she does buy more.
cheers
+100 :)
great dogs think alike..
DC,
I'm at about 40% total dollar shorts and holding; it is GTU, PHYS, CEF, FXF, FXC, HL, NEM, SLW, DBA, MOO, stuff like that, of course some physical. The balance is cash. No leverage. The speed with which it moves when PMs move is positively bracing, but I am at peace. Sometimes it moves by a month's income in a day. Waiting for some more Fed-induced "wealth effect," which I am confident is coming. Still also expecting one good final deflationary sag before Ben "goes for it."
Just know that that is an arbitrary limit, and one that if followed, will force you to sell your PMs as they continue to rise.
OTM ZSL puts...load up!
>> I am HOLDING physical gold and DBA ("paper food" ETF)
Speculating in food is contributing to the starvation of the poor in many nations. You have to draw the line somewhere. I guess if you are a true believer then you are forgiven, so it doesn't matter.
Remember that while speculators cause a short term price rise, they lower long term prices as A, they bring more supply onto the market when they sell--generally during a real shortage that would have been much worse without them, and B, it causes farmers to produce more of said food.
Don't blame the speculators--they ensure that food will be available at some price in the future. Blame the government's and their genocidal central bank policies.
>> speculators cause a short term price rise,
When you are living on the edge of survival, or not survival, when it comes to food and water, the short term is all that matters. Tell the people who are rioting that high prices are actually good and see how far it gets you. Profiting from the rise is food prices is dirty money. That may be ok for some, but I find it hypocritical coming from one who pushes his Christianity. The Christian/starving the poor was what I was getting at.
Futures markets in agriculture are vital for price determination and planning. Without market signals, farmers and ranchers have no idea of what people want and in what quantities.
Not good I have been following. I can't get flights in yet. The guys are working on it.
the outta rings now hitting the state...
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR192-cairns/2011-02-01-12/2...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xv6oOxn1axw
Bingo! 1+1. Pal.
Not to be a dick, but don't you have a barn for them?
Damn cows.
My flippin' bacon has doubled in price in under 8 months; must I eat more chicken livers? Please, save your beef and get it to market.
I hate having to switch consumption, but if I had a trilloin dollars$ I'd still balk at price hikes and hit the rice and beans and organ meats.
What's the upside for cattle and wheat going south that badly?
Chicken livers are freaking awesome if deep fried. Of course, prepared that way they're damned near fatal. too.
Chicken livers are freaking awesome if deep fried. Of course, prepared that way they're damned near fatal. too.
M.E. Dominoes continue to fall as UN/US backed dictators are reshuffled to appease the Muslim masses.
Oil through 150 on to 200
Commodity prices push grocery bills to heights that Joe and Jane6 can't afford ushering in civil unrest stateside.
Dollar continues to crumble and file 13 by end of 2012.
Mother nature wildcards,
Possible large scale seismic activity.
Weather trends to colder longer winters.
Puxatony Phil dons his army helmet and watches the human cartoon from his bunker in the hills of Pennsylvania.
It's all trends baby, it's all trends and gold's the lowest common denominator!
Bank on it. The Rothies did.
I've been watching spot silver and spot gold closely all day today and yesterday ... both acting like coiled springs which are being pressed down. Don't think all is well in Dodge.
Damn that Waddle and Reed!
Don't get it! If a Call or Put is being bought, then someone is selling; if they are being sold, then someone has to be buying. It takes a buyer and a seller to create the Put or call, period! Lots of writers seem to forget this fact.
And what a lot of other folks forget is that there are three possibilities in the phrase: Buy OR Sell.
"OR", is just as valid as buy "AND" sell.
The deep mystery of "OR", and "AND", has yet to be solved.
Don't make me explain forex. Selling 100k usd to buy 138k worth of Euros to trade USD long.
just composted
another bucket of coins ...
just composted
another bucket of coins ...
Hey Tempo, Australia is exporting wheat. About half the tonnage of the US, annually. Australia will export around 18 million tonnes from the 2010 harvest.
This ought to put a floor under gold and silver:
"China should increase precious metals reserves
Updated: 2011-02-01 13:59
SEOUL - China should increase its gold and silver reserves, the Economic Information Daily reported on Monday, citing an interview with China's central bank adviser Xia Bin.
Increasing gold reserves at the "appropriate time" is in line with the strategy of internationalizing the yuan, the report cited Xia as saying. "Related departments" should employ a "buy in the dip" strategy over a very long period of time, Xia said.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-02/01/content_11953985.htm
This looks quite bullish for gold.
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2011/MPLID_012811_pg003Emb.pdf
So does this:
Fed passes China in Treasury holdingshttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/120372fc-2e48-11e0-8733-00144feabdc0.html
Fed's No. 1 in Treasury Holdings: Reporthttp://www.thestreet.com/story/10992472/1/feds-no-1-in-treasury-holdings...
buy dzz sell slv
Now all is well: With the Fed buying & holding
all the bonds sold by the Fed, the US can go on
QEing forever. Or wait: just until everybody else stops
selling raw materials & goods for those funny green
IOUnothings.... buahuahua (evil manic laughter)