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Gold, Silver And Oil As Market Yet To Price In Armageddon

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Judging by the incomprehensible action in both WTI and gold, both of which are surging, it appears the stock market may not have priced in the full impact of Bernanke's Put on the Armageddon. And after all, what disaster, man made or otherwise, can not be circumvented through the printing of a few [...]illion in new linen-cotton forms of monetary exchange.

Gold

and Oil

Silver

 

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Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:01 | 1090143 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Tyler uses the "A" word.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:57 | 1090589 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Its seems its really happening! Neutron beam from Plutonium and Uranium being relased 1 mile away!

http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2011/03/healthy-smoke-healthy-water-egypti...

This is the real china syndrom!

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:04 | 1090635 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

But China is to the west.. wouldn't it have to melt and float sideways to get to China from Japan?

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:17 | 1090686 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

I'd say Armageddon pricing was at least two more zero's possibly three...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:41 | 1090815 markmotive
markmotive's picture

...it seems like we're in the perfect storm.

Next thing will be a fragile consumer that gets the wind knocked out of him by higher gas prices and the boom-bust merry-go-round continues...

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2011/01/31/peak-oil-and-the-new-boom-bust-cycle/

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:17 | 1091005 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Exactly. As one close friend and colleague said in 2008, "this won't end well, because it will never end."

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 16:05 | 1091888 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture


Just trying to make money for as many as possible:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/are-we-all-happy.html

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 17:41 | 1092425 dumpster
dumpster's picture

looks  like to me the only people that weill make real money are those who bought and hold on

 

why this insane attempt to guide a bevy of non traders to the fire

90%  lose

best to just buy and hold the gold and silver

do a richard russell lol

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 18:25 | 1092587 pirea
pirea's picture

You are so right!

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 18:55 | 1092652 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The funny thing is that you are not "making real money"... to first order you are only keeping what you already have...don't be fooled into thinking otherwise...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 22:29 | 1093283 SilverBaron
SilverBaron's picture

People who bought gold at 300/ounce about 7 years ago, I haven't made money?

People who bought gold at 35/ounce in the 70's havent made money?

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 23:09 | 1093443 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yes, they did... a 3 or 4 bagger is nice, but it is not making "real money". They bought an undervalued asset class, smart investing.

Compare the rise in the price of gold to rise in the price of the "important" things in life, food and energy. Not so great a gain measured in those terms...

Don't worry I am not some gold troll, between my clients and myself, there is ~50% PM exposure...

Real money is 20-40 baggers.....

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:07 | 1090644 CD
CD's picture

It's OK. The Fed sez:

How Much Will the Rise in Commodity Prices Reduce 
Discretionary Income?

Jonathan McCarthy

"Overall, it appears that the discretionary income effects of commodity price changes generally have been a fairly small factor in aggregate consumption fluctuations."

There are two paragraphs of disclaimers, about further study being needed for a) those who are not wealthy, thus needing more of their income to pay for food & energy, and b) the nonlinear nature of the effect of these increases. But all is well, what we are seeing is a mere blip.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:03 | 1090145 WALLST8MY8BALL
WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

I Shoulda bought the Fu$&!N& Dip!

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:18 | 1090288 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I did!

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:41 | 1090468 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Ditto

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:46 | 1090517 malikai
malikai's picture

Sux, here in Britain there wasn't much of a dip in the physical world. Dollar strength watered down the dip in metal, so we only got a few cents shaved off in reality.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:56 | 1090905 Strider52
Strider52's picture

Ya know, I think there's a conspiracy at JPMC (Just Pull My Chain), to keep the Gold close below the magic number of $1440, my two-bagger magic number. Just Print Money Constantly keeps allowing my magic number to appear, then disappear, just before I can get the champagne into the glass.

  MeNeeds a close above $1440, please, Sir. Me Glass is empty, and needeth refillage.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:57 | 1091160 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 LOL. Just Pull My Chain; that's a good one.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:00 | 1091165 connda
connda's picture

It's just consolidation at 1440.  From there...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:56 | 1090575 Broomer
Broomer's picture

Don't worry too much about losing dips. Just keep buying a certain amount each month and you're set.

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:19 | 1090690 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Yeah, until the tax man cometh...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 17:41 | 1092434 dumpster
dumpster's picture

a 100% of nothing guy 

 

Harlequin001

 

so you buy ot goes up double sell  pay a little if your a dumb shift

 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 04:33 | 1094170 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Nope, didn't get a word of that.

You seem to have developed your own language...

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:15 | 1090682 CPL
CPL's picture

WTI was a bargain at 19.50 a share/etf

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:02 | 1090149 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Golden Parachutes being loaded on this Con-Air flight as we speak

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:04 | 1090633 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Sometimes just need a break and a laugh http://bit.ly/eF84Aq  Which begs the question - - - instead of trying to kill Ghaddafi, maybe we should be trying to take out "whoever" we owe all our money to. That is what this short sketch plays too.  A one minute bit of amusement.  Performed in October and only more true today.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:02 | 1090150 malikai
malikai's picture

That radioactive dip tastes a bit metallic.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:08 | 1090200 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

I bought some silver on the radioactive dip, its glowing neon a bit but its good to me

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:14 | 1090235 malikai
malikai's picture

That should save you a bit on interior lighting.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:19 | 1090700 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

yeah, like a vault bulb for starters.

and just wait to you put it in your pocket. You'll never be short of change in the dark again, ever...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:22 | 1090333 Reptil
Reptil's picture

ppbbbrrrffff LMAO

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:02 | 1090152 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

Ultimately the price gold and silver are trading at is inconsequential. Pay attention to your spouse and children instead, probably 80% of us won't make it past the first year after SHTF, which, judging from the accelerating pace of world crises, is fast approaching

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:09 | 1090209 BeeTee
BeeTee's picture

How depressing.  The sun is shining here in Europe!

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:10 | 1090226 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

:) Sure. When I said "us" I mean all of us, not just the United States.

As has often been said, on a long enough time line the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. I've lived a short but happy life (26 years and still counting). Lots of love, lots of laughs, and I've learned quite a bit. Plenty of fresh subjective observations contributed to the Great Objectivity of which we're all a part.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:19 | 1090270 Republican Lackey
Republican Lackey's picture

Please stop watching Glenn Beck. He's bad for your health.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:19 | 1090302 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

Never have and never will. I read books. Try The Limits to Growth. but first read the Meditations of Marcus Aurelius.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:42 | 1090489 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

If you are really 26 and not bullshitting us....Good for you...

From where I sit, I can glance over at, "The Republic", "Meditations", Collected Essays by Cicero and "Utopia"...

I recommend adding "Twilight in the Desert", "The Long Emergency" and "American Theocracy" to your library.... 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:24 | 1090721 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

and Playboy might cheer you up a bit...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:36 | 1090782 tonyw
tonyw's picture

Thanks, just bought Meditations of Marcus Aurelius & "American Theocracy" got the rest.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:45 | 1090504 Thomas
Thomas's picture

...and some Jared Diamond as a chaser.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:49 | 1090541 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yep... overlooked some of his stuff..

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:54 | 1090570 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

I've read Collapse, solid and worthy read

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:00 | 1090601 tickhound
tickhound's picture

+1000 on Jared Diamond

Also... "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" - Charles Mackay

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:08 | 1090634 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Should add J.M Roberts "History of the 20th Century"

I thought "Guns, Germs..." was a landmark work. He carried out a thesis to its logical conclusion very well

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:47 | 1091432 trav7777
trav7777's picture

GGS was crap.  Subsequent archeological evidence refuted a lot of one of his central theses.

Diamond cherry picked particular sets of facts to try to get around a simpler conclusion- genetics.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 15:15 | 1091540 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Please elaborate on this evidence.

Edit: I will be back in ~2 hrs....got an errand to run

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 16:51 | 1092166 trav7777
trav7777's picture

One of GGS's central theses was that lesser agricultural species were present in Africa compared to Europe.  Let's leave out competing cultures which tended to be more advanced, such as China (we will confront the absurd E-W axis theory for agriculture later if necessary).

My retort was that this is simply not how agriculture works.  In reality, people settle in fertile lands and they carry whatever foodstuffs they have with them.  It is irrelevant what indigenous grains or edible plants exist in a region, as migrants will bring what they know how to grow with them and may even regard edible foodstuffs as poison (see "tomato").  Diamond's assertion was that the relative grain bounty of europe was somehow responsible for decidedly late-stage development amongst Europeans and this thesis doesn't even stand up to passable scrutiny.

Subsequent evidence, some of which was presented in Science, showed conclusively foodstuffs migration with population.  In fact, in India for one, the grains and agricultural products migrated literally 1000 miles up the coast and westward from the southern portion of the subcontinent.  Along the way, these grains were deployed in fertile areas.

The notion that Africa and MesoAmerica were technologically inferior as a result of native grains (a factor perhaps 20,000 years ago, prior to the advent of agriculture [which Africans HAD at least 10k BCE]) is utterly and patently absurd at least when comparing the duration of human agriculture versus EITHER guns OR steel.

Nevermind the superiority of Toledo Steel from Ghana or any number of other holes I can poke straight through GGS.

Diamond is a jew apologist for african lack of achievement.  He is neither the first nor the last of his kind, but perhaps the best-worded.  Unwittingly, he made a claim on his PBS series about GGS which in essence stated that Africans had evolved away from civilization.  I'm not sure he understood the implications of what he said, because he was in effect apologizing for relative lack of W. African cities and civilizations by making excuses.  When I heard the statement and took the second it takes me to think through things such as this I went holy shit he just said Africans lack civilization as a result of evolutionary behavior.  I concur with this premise.

If we want to address the East/West axis theory, I can simply say China and Central and South America versus Europe and N. America...do a comparison of civilizations in these regions of genetic peers versus latitude or of nonpeers across different continents and just take a short look at the geographic orientation as compared to the height of civilization therein.  To be short, there were more advanced civilizations on islands and in strong N/S axis regions than the opposite.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 17:17 | 1092321 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 We getting to the RH margin here... Will cut and past and start a new comment at the bottom..  Give me a moment or two...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 23:19 | 1093497 trav7777
trav7777's picture

i won't read this thread again once it goes below the fold; if you want to discuss further, gimme some sort of off-site contact

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 01:23 | 1093548 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

del'ed

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:54 | 1090573 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Looking over at my copy of the Art of Living by Epictetus. You have good taste in ancient writings.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:23 | 1090711 Shed Boy
Shed Boy's picture

1967 copy of the Boy Scout Handbook. Should be required reading as well.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:25 | 1090729 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Personally, I swear by the Beano...

Well, it makes a lot more sense than the crud spewed forth by the Fed and BLS...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:05 | 1090945 Creed
Creed's picture

you have to take Glen Beck for what he is, a showman

the one thing I admire the most about Glen Beck, besides the fact that he makes liberals heads implode with fury, is that he exposes much solid information that has been kept swept under the rug by "normal" mainstream media; like always you have to have a head on your shoulders to seperate wheat from chaff

normal media meaning the disgusting liberal/progressive bias that has brought our great nation to it's knees with it's dumbed down drugged up population since the 1960's

anyone that makes the cretins that worship NPR & the DOEducation projectile vomit is worth a second look from me, like Beck or Palin

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:01 | 1091168 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:22 | 1091267 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Puleeeez.   Now there's a ticket, Beck as POTUS and Palin as VP.

I'm emigrating.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 15:38 | 1091734 themiestro
themiestro's picture

-4, you lose.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:19 | 1091263 Papi_Al-Mahdi
Papi_Al-Mahdi's picture

Palin is a neoCon

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:35 | 1091358 akak
akak's picture

Not even that --- more like a neoRetard.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:57 | 1091505 Papi_Al-Mahdi
Papi_Al-Mahdi's picture

I like that.

But these neoCons are really opposite of conservatives like Bizarro to Superman... They're fucking posers. So she's more like a neoGenius.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 16:51 | 1092171 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Given your guys' logic, that makes Barack a neoDumbass and Nancy a neoDumberass

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 17:23 | 1092274 Papi_Al-Mahdi
Papi_Al-Mahdi's picture

NeoCons aren't conservative. They pose as conservatives and enact CFR policy, the same CFR policy Obama and Pelosi enact. If you're calling Obama and Nancy Dumbasses (which of course they are) the logic I'm using would say they too are neoGeniuses like Palin. They are all posers. neoLibs and neoCons alike. Obama is a neoJFK.

McCain, Obama, Pelosi, Clinton, Bohner, Palin, Biden, Cheney, ect. They all get their marching orders from the CFR (council on foreign Relations). They are agents of the globalists and banksters.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CheeOqOi1ZY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ba9wxl1Dmas

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:29 | 1091325 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Using the same logic, Beck is equivalently Hitler. Review Adolph's speeches, there was lot of "what was wrong with Germany" that was correct. The extent of his agenda was not fully revealed till later. That being said, anyone who did the legwork back then could see him for what he truly was.... 

   Beck is the exact same, tell enough truth to lure the angry masses in. I do not know what Glen's vision is, I don't care either, all I know is that someone who twists the truth in the ways that he does is not someone I want anywhere near political power. His intellectual naivety is astounding.

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:47 | 1091449 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you've already got people far worse sitting right on top of political power

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 15:03 | 1091557 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sad but true....but they don't have the airplay he does or effectively the captive audience.

Just try to listen to any intelligent discourse on the radio, I drive between Westchester NY and Chicago about every 6-8 weeks, the shit that is on the radio is beyond deplorable... 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 16:53 | 1092176 trav7777
trav7777's picture

concur...but you cannot actually believe Beck is a demagogue?  I have watched his show a few times and he simply seems like a well-meaning idiot to me.

He lacks the scienter of the MSNBC crew or Cannity or O'Reilly

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 17:15 | 1092298 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

He is a tool, useful for now, to be cast off later, in all likelihood. As far as being a demagogue, all that matters is whether the idiots out there think he is...

I'm referring to the Radio... his reach is much greater there, all but fucking ubiquitous on the AM dial. I'd sooner have a white phosphorus enema than ever tune that twit in on the boob-tube...

I don't know about well-meaning, but certainly an idiot.

 

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:56 | 1091157 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

But it´s still cold.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:19 | 1090296 Chuck Norris
Chuck Norris's picture

Think it'll hold off for another week?  I'm headed to Hawaii and I want to be there when SHTF. 

If I only have one more year that's where I'd like to spend it.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:46 | 1090519 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Napalm loves the smell of Chuck Norris in the morning.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:53 | 1090563 JohnG
JohnG's picture

When Chuck Norris jumps into a pool, Chuck does not get wet, the pool gets Chuck Norrised!

What's behind Chuck Norris' beard? Another fist.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:09 | 1090649 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

There used to be a street named after Chuck Norris but it was changed because nobody crosses Chuck Norris and lives.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:23 | 1090724 derekiz
derekiz's picture

Funny Chuck Norris story:

I was at his first wedding with his brother Aaron. We were in 7th grade. His friends and family were getting concerned because they were ready to start and he was no where to be found. Aaron and I went looking for him and found him in the mens bathroom in a stall. Aaron said "What are you doing everyone is waiting?" Chuck said he was too nervous and felt sick" Aaron got on his case as a 7th grader and pushed him to get his butt out of the stall and go through with it. Rather funny to be a part of an unknown history. So Zerohedge is the first to know about it. Pretty funny when you think about his image. Of course he was probably only 20 years old at the time.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:27 | 1090739 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

and yet still he can't act...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:26 | 1091305 akak
akak's picture

... nor can quiver-lips Bernanke.

Both could use some lessons from our actor-in-chief.

Primarily, keep your nose up in the air, and speak like you know what you are talking about even when you are just parroting bland inanities.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:10 | 1090665 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

When Chuck Norris does push ups, he doesnt go up, the earth goes down!

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:45 | 1090850 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

When Chuck Norris' daughter lost her virginity, he found it and returned it to her.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:51 | 1090887 JohnG
Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:08 | 1090962 Creed
Creed's picture

Napalm loves the smell of Chuck Norris in the morning.

 

Chuck Norris uses napalm as aftershave

 

then lights it for a morning smoke

 

there's a factory in China that works 24/7 doing nothing but sharpening personally owned razors for Chuck Norris, that damn beard is like concrete

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:22 | 1091289 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Chuck doesn't shave.  He just hammers them in and chews them off on the inside.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:32 | 1091334 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

You can't carry concealed in Hawaii. And those Hawaiians don't really like Stateside Round eyed people.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:51 | 1091472 trav7777
trav7777's picture

they like our oppressive refrigeration and electric power though...like the rest of the world

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:38 | 1090465 DosZap
DosZap's picture

With that attitude you wont.

Get your crap together, and get READY now before you have no time left,I have been laying in fooodstuffs since '09, even gave away some ,rotating it out.

You need at least a months supply of all the things needed to live.

Then buy, sell off unused misc stuff, and buy silver if nothing else.

Three fireams min, 22LR, 12Ga Semi, and a .5.56/.223 AR style rifle, and at least a thousand rounds for the 22&5.56, or get a 762x51 semi,but the ammo will gut you.

I plan on being part of your 20%, and all my family.You do not wait for the STHTF in earnest, do it while you can.

And, thats all I got to say bout that.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:44 | 1090505 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

I don't know man. I'm a type 1 insulin-dependant diabetic. My one hope is that there will be a crushing demand for PMs, which I've been able to modestly stock up on. If I can trade them for arable land and get a good group of people together I can start a farm. If you grind down an animal pancreas and chemically treat it you can extract insulin that way. So I'm kinda of hoping things go in such a way that I can make that happen. If not I'm basically fucked. But don't you worry I'm going down fighting

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:58 | 1090588 caboy316
caboy316's picture

I'm sort of in the same boat. 25, modestly stocked on PMs, need maintenance medication for a condition (blood thinners for my mechanical heart valve, in my case). I think your version of SHTF is a bit overblown though. We'll end up in the shitter in the end, no doubt, but the process is much more gradual.

At worst, things turn into post-collapse USSR. You could still get insulin in post-Soviet Yugoslavia, it'll just cost you some things you might not want to pay. Don't buy the overnight apocalypse line.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:01 | 1091180 Snake
Snake's picture

+1000

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:00 | 1090605 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

I dunno Arthor, you might make it yet: Although not a good time to be trying to buy Iodine tablets I guess.....

"Dr. Fletchas reported that two years later and 70 pounds lighter this above patient continues to have excellent glucose control on iodine 50 mg per day. “We since have done a study of twelve diabetics and in six cases we were able to wean all of these patients off of medications for their diabetes. The range of daily iodine intake was from 50 mg to 100 mg per day. All diabetic patients were able to lower the total amount of medications necessary to control their diabetes.”

Full Article:

http://www.alkalizeforhealth.net/Liodine.htm

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:55 | 1091146 awakened
awakened's picture

FQ The thing about iodine is this:

"In the body, iodine is displaced by fluorine, chlorine and bromine. These four minerals are known as "halogens". The smaller the atomic weight, the more reactive is the element. Here are the atomic weights of the four halogens:
fluorine 18.99
chlorine 35.45
bromine 79.90
iodine 126.70"

from the side bar of the link you posted

My understanding is that when you take any form of high dose iodine, you start to detox the other halogens, among other things, hence the negative side effects that everyone is talking about. It is not something to be done lightly and without a good amount of knowledge/medical supervision and a loading test first is highly recommended.

http://iodine4health.com/ortho/iodine_loading_test.htm

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:33 | 1090774 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Good for you,stock up on Insulin,if you must buy in bulk from Canada, even if you have to visit.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:21 | 1090709 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

sounds bullish...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:02 | 1090153 Bazooka
Bazooka's picture

All the Same Market...Prechter

I really believe that when the S&P crashes, then oil and commodities will go along with it. e.g. 2008 crash...it was all the same market, oil crashed, stocks crashed.

What bothers me about gold is that it has been moving almost in sync with the stocks...I believe it too is part of the all same market and when deflation resumes and ravages the credit implosion, dollar will strengthen to historical highs (currently, not a dollar bull to be fuond, sentiment is all bearish on same side of leger); gold will fall and fall hard to perhaps $700 or lower in a few years.

 

IMHO..let's see how things turn out.

 

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:06 | 1090194 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

It's OK if metal stocks crash. 

Make sure you hold the physical and price/oz doesn't matter.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:09 | 1090206 malikai
malikai's picture

If/when they crash on the paper markets, if there is any physical available, quite a few of us will be backing the truck up.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:21 | 1090316 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

 The difference will be made up with outrageous premiums, nobodys going to get gold and silver on the cheap....

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:22 | 1090332 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

Agreed.  I should have added that caveat above.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:18 | 1090262 Bazooka
Bazooka's picture

If Robert Prechter is right, dollar strengthens to historical highs due to credit implosion (deflation), then the dollar buying power increases significantly. One of the effects (not cause, which many get confused) of deflation is price decrease of everything; real estate to commodities, etc.

So, if you sell your current physical at today's prices (at a profit); and hold on to the dollars; a few years later, those same dollars can probably buy several multples of physical gold due to dramatic increase in buying power.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:22 | 1090311 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

I'm not parting with any of my physical today, tomorrow, or anytime soon.  That'd just be foolish.

To hold out hope that fiat currency will strengthen "in a few years" is a fools game, IMO.  Thousands of years of history supports this assertion.

But good luck to you.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:25 | 1090350 Bazooka
Bazooka's picture

The dollar is doomed for sure, but it must first cross the valley of deflation which means a couple years or so of extreme strength...look at the Yen, except it's been doing it in slow motion; however USD rise will be left translated it it's strenthening prior to utter demise.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:29 | 1090382 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

but it must first cross the valley of deflation

Uh, no not necessarily.  Strength in currencies is relative not absolute.  Metals are the opposite.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:05 | 1091198 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hold lots of dollars too!

I have lots of PMs and 6 months worth of FRNs.

Covered either way.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:11 | 1090975 MiguelitoRaton
MiguelitoRaton's picture

The alternate case of a crack-up boom followed by a deep deflation of unpaid debts is also a possibility, and one that Marc Faber expects.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:46 | 1091117 living on the edge
living on the edge's picture

The dollar is doomed for sure

You just answered what gold and precious metals will do in the future by your own words. If the dollar is doomed it's relative value to gold goes down.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:26 | 1090357 malikai
malikai's picture

Prechter vs. the Bernanke put. I wonder who will win.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:37 | 1090792 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Unless of course your in Hyper Inflation, then t doesn't matter.

The USD at 90, with the current circumstances means nothing, except maybe a shot at getting some hard asset bargains.(Land)

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:07 | 1090204 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Prechter is a flim-flam man of the worst caliber.  I read a while back that if you had invested a million dollars according to his calls dating back to the 80's, you would have something like $400 today.

And it was NOT all the same market.  Gold and silver recovered much more quickly than stocks.  Silver is getting close to double it's 2008 high now.

There is unlikely to be another knee-jerk flight to the dollar.  Indeed, the only ones with ANY faith (even false faith) in the dollar are the Chinese and Japanese, and Japan just died.  China will join the party soon enough.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:20 | 1090298 Bazooka
Bazooka's picture

Prechter hasn't been perfect, but his deflation argument makes sense...it seems crazy now only due to the zany bullish sentiment and temporary reflationary period we are in...

Prechter's 1987 call and 2009 calls were phenomenal! He hasn't been perfect...but I believe if sentiment is your bread and butter to investing, then the current zanniness of the market, broades consensus on gold bullishness, broadest consensus on oil never topping, etc....you want to be on the other side of the boat or stay cash.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:44 | 1090506 tmosley
tmosley's picture

A broken clock should be right more than twice in a career.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:00 | 1090609 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Tmosely  -  a broken watch is right twice a day, Prechter can be wrong every 1 of 12 months in a year (2010) but still think his 'technical analysis' has credibility!!!

He's surrounded by Elliott Wave crones/clowns who pump up his every (occasional) success and ignore a 95% failure rate. Any Elliott Wave subscribers that have any money left after Prechter and his clowns 2010 investment advise did well to survive and not go completely bankrupt. Because they got slaughtered by Prechters 95% mis-direction time after time throughout 2010 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:50 | 1090534 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

There is a caveat in to the collapse of the dollar (which will take longer than expected here at the Hedge)...

I predict that physical fiat will hold up better than electronic fiat, if only for the reason that it serves as a convienient medium of exchange at the barter level. Physical currency supply is not keeping pace with the increase in M2. Already there are discounts to be had when paying cash... 

All that being said, I don't intend to hold much, if any fiat...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:50 | 1090535 MolotovCockhead
MolotovCockhead's picture

I'd rather welcome the cold hard embrace of the shinny metals than burried warmly in a ton fiat FRN! Don't even mind taking a golden haircut as I definitely sleep better holding on to the PM that fiat.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:53 | 1090566 LostWages
LostWages's picture

Prechter underestimated the Bernank.  But then who could imagined the mad scientist would print at the levels he has?

So many technical calls have been wrong by everyone because of the blatant stock market intervention by the Chairsatan and his team who no doubt are also watching the technical indicators and pour in even larger amounts at those times to keep this pig flying.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:32 | 1091021 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

LostWages

Prechter doesn't believe Bernank has any control on markets, or inflation/deflation either, so enough excuses already. Prechter continues to predict the stock markets, despite being wrong from 2009 every month right to February 2011 (14 attempts and only 1 success is beyond a joke).

But his 'Theorist' ramblings have given up predicting Gold (because of failure), Silver (because of failure) and the US Dollar (because of failure). Elliot Waves 'Free Updates' which are gross (grotesque) mis-representation at EW's (in)ability to predict billed the latest Theorist as "20% more". More Free Update BS because it had 80% less precisely because Prechter had stripped his predictions (because of failure) on any topic outside of the stock Indexes. 

So Prechter has got the Index call right 1 time in about 14 attempts! Meanwhile he and his team of clowns have got top calling on Gold, on Silver and a US Dollar rally consistently and persistently wrong pretty much the entire 14 months (a tragedy and a travesty by any standard). 

Prechter and Hochberg also boasted Jim Sinclairs call on Gold "going into a parabolic shift" last year was wrong. Sinclair predicted Golds prices way back in 2000 while the last time Prechter has been 'right' was calling Silvers bottom same year. Prechter sold his Silver in 2002, the year Silver went on a decade long mega-rally (how dumb is that?).

Sure enough Sinclair was right and Gold shot up from $1,100 to above $1,200 and then $1,444 (Sinclairs price target made way back in 2000 and only 2 months away from the Jan 2011 date he predicted). Sinclair has knocked Prechter and his clueless bunch of Elliott Wave clowns right out of the ball park

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:41 | 1091098 LostWages
LostWages's picture

No argument from me.  Was a subscriber and cancelled over a year ago after losing too much money. 

My only point is that the Bernank continues to screw with "normal" market processes making it near impossible for anyone to be right other than the BTFD crowd.  This theory will continue to work until it doesn't. 

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:25 | 1091296 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the decline from Feb' will prove the Fed (and PPT) has no control over the stock indexes as it continues further down.... the Feds can't control indexes because like Forex markets and the economy itself they're too big ...see what happens but think this is the 'Big One' (Bear market)

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:01 | 1090747 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Bazooka

Here's 'Mr Perfect' (according to his own publicity) or 'Mr Delusional' according to subscribers, calling 2010 will be "a down year.. worse than 2008":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTZigLYsiMM&feature=related

You say he called it right in 2009 (rather a long time ago!). Prechter got the whole of 2010 wrong. Not just at the beginning of the year but Prechter was wrong every single month all the way through 2010. Not just totally wrong on the indexes, totally incompetent calling a Dollar rally, totally stunningly shit on Silver (missed the 60% rise from August) and totally gormless on Gold.

Rob Prechter, 'Failure of the Year' for 2010, has now given up on calling Gold and Silver.

But his Elliott Wave Team who were awarded 'Fuk-Up & Clueless Team: 2010' for their miserable failures throughout last year are still at it. Chief Clown, Steven Hochberg, last Wednesday stuck a '5' ending topping wave on both Gold and Silver calling a multi week and month decline. 2 trading days later, Friday, the dipshit had taken the '5' off and was calling a continued rally!! In 2 days this twats 'technical analysis' had changed which was par for the course for his total 2010 calamity 

Horsehit Hochberg is the clown at the kiddies party blindfold trying to tag the tail on the Donkey. He's had so many goes pegging his '5' on Gold, on Silver, on all 3 US Indexes in 2010 the kids (EW's long suffering and ever poorer subscribers) are bored fuking stiff, chewing a wasp and have left the room! 3 times a week Halucinating Hoch keeps on trying, "this is it... no, no one more try... ok i'll have one last try... ok, ok i'll get it right this time.... ok, i promise this is my very last time..."

Hochberg has had more attempts (failures) across the investment board more often (weekly) than any man in the known Universe. Yet still this absolutely incompetent unaplogetic clown keeps his job month in month out at Elliott Wave. 

So Prechter is completely incompetent. Hochberg is the calamity clown. The European Editor sits on the fence more often than a Crow. Now they have a new idiot, Mike Drakulich, who is their Metals Speciality 'expert'. Hohoho. Yes he's also been trying to peg '5' tops on Gold and failing just as miserably. The EW Teams only consistency is they are consistently rubbish

Take my word for it. Elliott Wave people are totally delusional of their mathematically patently obvious incompetence to predict accurately. Their Wave technique is completely incompetent. It is a failed model for predicting markets which simply does not work. It failed almost every week of every month through 2010 and continues to do so in 2011. It cannot beat a coin toss. Worse a coin toss would beat Prechter and his idiot team by 500%. They are statistically full of shit 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:29 | 1091328 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Well made points.  Question is, has anyone been successful by using charts when markets are so manipulated that charts are nearly useless.   A good market guru would see that and take it into consideration.  If nothing else than to throw up both hands and give up the predicting business.   But what the hell do I know...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:46 | 1091435 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

@ Bazooka +$400 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:12 | 1090222 Republican Lackey
Republican Lackey's picture

I see it the same way. I haven't seen this much excuberance in an asset class since the Real Estate bubble of 2007.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:20 | 1090286 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Of course you do, you're a lackey.  Everyone owned or was buying a home fueling that bubble.  Yet you're hard pressed to find anyone around you who owns metal.  Try and sell a one ounce gold coin on the street for $700.  Most will tell you "I'm not a coin collector".  In other words, if you think this is asset class "exuberance", you ain't seen nuthin' yet.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:20 | 1090695 The 22nd Prime
The 22nd Prime's picture

$700? You jest...how 'bout $50

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk5aRIz17fk

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:22 | 1090714 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

 "In other words, if you think this is asset class "exuberance", you ain't seen nuthin' yet."

True for the typical US investor, who is brain washed to believe that fiat is real money.

Offer your gold coin for sale on the streets of shanghai and it will be bought immediately.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:20 | 1090290 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lolwat?

Where, other than Zerohedge and a few associated blogs, have you seen exuberance in gold, silver, or oil?

Every time I see it mentioned in the mainstream media, the first is a bubble and the second doesn't exist, oil is the only one that traders seem to take seriously.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:23 | 1090320 Bazooka
Bazooka's picture

Daily Sentiment measures have shown record bullish readings..across the board from stocks, oil, gold, silver...

However, i'ts not a normal recovery because what's bothering me is that housing and employment both have not recovered along with S&P, oil and gold.....this to me is a blatant warning sign to stay on side lines or take a max. leveraged short on S&P. I've done both...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:59 | 1090598 Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

"However, i'ts not a normal recovery"

 

Correction, There is NO recovery.  That's the problem with your analysis

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:32 | 1091063 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

It's "unusually uncertain".

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:23 | 1090713 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Daily sentiment from traders and investors.  Not average Joe and Jane sixpack.  The meme has been growing for years and I still have a difficult time convincing people to get some physical metals.  Some have recently, to my delight, said they would or wanted to, but still have not.  So sentiment is not reality no matter how you slice it.  If sentiment were reality the U.S. would not be in 3 wars.

A bit surprising you read ZH with your take on things.  Not a normal recovery lol.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 15:08 | 1091585 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You said it for me.  What is he thinking?

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:42 | 1090816 DosZap
DosZap's picture

As long as QE's keep coming the rate of job loss will accelerate.And I see no way QE's can ever be stopped, w/out a total RESET.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:04 | 1090941 Cyrano de Bivouac
Cyrano de Bivouac's picture

No-Radio shows in LA are quoting the gold price and advertising Gold IRA's and there are now several "Cash for Gold" stores here in Pasadena area. Things are heating up.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 19:50 | 1092813 DRT RD
DRT RD's picture

Down here in Georgia we have a few buy only stores, no retail locations that are willing to selling. In Atlanta there are some coin stores that sell but I live way south of Atlanta.  

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:48 | 1090529 Ham Wallet
Ham Wallet's picture

That less than 1% of gold being a part of investments shows an incredible feeding frenzy. *eyeroll*

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:14 | 1090240 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Look at history as a guide. In the first crash in 1929 people attempted to cash out in FRN's. The second crash (of a continuing series of crashes) caused people to cash out in Gold causing FDR to attempt a confiscation of Gold. You'll see the same thing happen as we head into our second (of many) crashes over the next decade or two. 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:03 | 1091185 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

In the 30s those who had any money left to invest, mostly went to government bonds. Because in a deflationary depression bonds are an excellent investment.

As late as the sixties all conventional investment advisers said buy bonds first, and if you are a conservative investor never buy anything else. But even the wildest swingers should keep at least 40% in bonds.

Today's inflationary depression is completely different.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:37 | 1090454 youngman
youngman's picture

"I believe it too is part of the all same market "  it is because the bankers are keeping it that way...but the rest of the world knows and is buying the hard stuff....soon the paper gold and silver will crash...but everyone is right ..that hard coin will go up and up and up...the bankers will say its only worth X...but on the street it will be worth X+?....my dark side says the Governments will try somehow to make it illegal to own...they can not have competition to their paper

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:44 | 1090495 malikai
malikai's picture

I suspect at that point the failed states will be too busy tending to the pitchfork weilding mobs to do anything substantial to the hard currency holders.

Seriously, when paper doesn't buy a cat's turd, will the serfs just happily accept starvation? My gut says hell no.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:22 | 1091024 SilverBaron
SilverBaron's picture

Agreed

No food stamps, no peace.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:03 | 1091192 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Don't worry they will calm the populace with a new scam. The supply of bullshit is endless which perfectly matches the demand.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 07:18 | 1094332 malikai
malikai's picture

I've been waiting to say this for ages:

You can't eat bullshit.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:48 | 1091125 Seer
Seer's picture

Is it the government(s) or is it the banks that want to stomp gold?  Is it the banks who pressure govt into these measures, rather than govt taking some such initiative on its own (what would the reason be? many States are starting to think about accepting gold)?

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:42 | 1091411 dbTX
dbTX's picture

Utah is close to passing a law establishing physical gold and silver as legal tender. Florida is not far behind. This is going to catch on

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:44 | 1090516 DosZap
DosZap's picture

gold will fall and fall hard to perhaps $700 or lower in a few years.

 

Yeah, likely will after the parabolic phase, until then look for huge increase across the board I would rather have $700.00 than ZIP, and thats what most will have.

 I feel most badly about the ones who know they should have PM's,doing the 8-5, or the fired,laid off, but are barely getting by.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:49 | 1090543 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

All markets seem to be synchronous, but if and when the SHTF I believe the value of gold and silver will decouple from the manipulated, paper side of the business.

Unless of course our brand new world currency is partially backed by precious metals. If this is the case I don't have the intelligence to predict what would happen to the prices.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 12:15 | 1090681 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

People had similar thoughts about gold never reaching $700!

Your train of thought is set to become extinct in what is to become a new paradigm.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:01 | 1091167 Seer
Seer's picture

It's been more than a year (I believe) that Noriel Roubini was stating that gold wouldn't reach $1,200, but that it might briefly reach $1,100 and then drop back down below(?) $1,000.  And here we sit close to the record, $1,440.  I'd been a fan of his up until this point: he'd started going to the dark side (fading in and out): although no expert myself, I just wasn't seeing any logic behind his comments.  I suspect that he, as do many others, have their head stuck in history, they're not getting that this time it IS different!

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:11 | 1091219 mach777
mach777's picture

It bothers you? If the dollar strengthens and gold drops, you get a chance to buy more.

I don't get why so many people are fussed up about the eventuality of pm prices dropping, that should be EXACTLY what you want.

 

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:02 | 1090154 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Long silver,gold food fresh h20. Short the Benster's bull shit.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:02 | 1090155 H. Perowne
H. Perowne's picture

What a shame Bernake's animal spirits don't seem to be responding to the shaman's rattle. Reality hurts.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 11:20 | 1090313 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Shaking the Shaman Bens rattle at the animal spirits is all theyve got, and its the biggest fail in world history. I love it!

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 14:11 | 1091221 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Shaking Shaman Ben´s rattle...

I love it too!

+ $1425

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