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Gold, Silver Surge After Goldman Recommends Buying Gold... Again
Gold continues its push to $1,400. The catalyst: Goldman's David Greely has just released a report on gold saying that: "we expect that gold prices will continue to rise over the next 12 months to our $1650/toz target as US monetary policy remains accommodative and US real interest rates remain low. Further, the Federal Reserve’s return to quantitative easing and the movement of gold prices to these new record highs could spark renewed investor demand for gold, which has been remarkably subdued in recent months. This represents upside risk to both our forecasts and to gold prices." As Goldman's last call on gold marked a temporary peak in the appreciation, as we expected, this time the top ticking effect will likely be lost. We believe that $1,400 gold to be breached as soon as today.
Some other perspectives from Goldman:
The FOMC announcement was widely anticipated, but while it was largely priced into the US TIPS market, it was not priced into the gold market. As we discussed in our last report, 10-year US TIPS yields had fallen to under 50 bps off the growing prospect of another round of quantitative easing. While speculative long positions had been building from arguably “oversold” levels, they were not building rapidly enough given the sharp decline in US TIPS yields, leaving the gold market arguably “under-bought.” We expect that the post-FOMC announcement rally that has carried gold prices close to our 3-month $1400/toz target has been driven by a sharp increase in net speculative positions, and we expect that ultimately, net speculative long positions will rise to a record 37 million toz given that US TIPS yields are below 50 bps.
Greely's specific recommendations are as follows:
Consumers: We expect gold prices to continue to rise from current levels as real interest rates should remain low on a continuation of quantitative easing in the United States. As a result, we believe that current gold prices provide an opportunity for consumers to layer in upside protection. However, longer term we continue to see considerable downside risk should the US Federal Reserve tighten monetary policy earlier than expected. Consequently, we recommend near-dated consumer hedges in gold, but more so in platinum where recovering global automobile demand will likely continue to put upward pressure on auto-catalyst demand and therefore on platinum and palladium prices.
Producers: While we expect gold prices to increase in 2010 and 2011, the rising risk of declining gold prices once the US Federal Reserve begins tightening monetary policy suggests this is a good time for gold producers to begin scaled up hedging of forward production, particularly for calendar 2012 and beyond.
While we agree, we see no mention of the RICO lawsuit on gold and silver prices, which even CNBC acknowledged is a factor in PM prices courtesy of the LBMA short squeeze we discussed yesterday, which has sent silver into the stratosphere.
Full report (pdf).
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80 cents up in Silver in 2 hours. If this isn't parabolic, it's close.
And the best news - the bear raid this morning blew up on Blythe.
;) +++
Turd,
What's your feelings on SLV? I don't understand what the ramifications might be for this in the longer term. Just curious. Thanks
I think SLV is dogshit. Read this:
http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=arti...
The author knows his shit. I have no reason to doubt his opinion.
SLV is another paper promise to hold silver (aka a proxy for Crimex Futures)
SLV's manager... doesn't own 1 share of it.
who was behind that 11 a.m. mini-shakeout on wednesday morning when gold dropped like crazy? GLD traded as low as $129.62; today it's at $136 and now goldie says buy buy buy.
Not enough time to re-type so here's a re-post with your answer:
by Turd Ferguson
on Wed, 11/03/2010 - 10:43
#695968
Obviously, Blythe decided to act early. The question is, what does this mean?
To me, the only reason for smashing gold now is this: The EE either knows or suspects that the QE2 announcement is going to be larger than anticipated and, therefore, PMs are going to rally sharply. So, crush the PMs now in order to cover shorts at lower prices before the blastoff.
Again, if anyone doubt the existence of the EE and their influence on today's action, simply look at a one-minute chart of todays' action. Violent one-minute downdrafts galore. Only the EE has the power to overwhelm the bid like that. They are clearly trying and succeeding in dropping price before the announcement. Again, why before? They are clearly afraid of getting their collective nuts and ovaries in a vise this afternoon.
I am very confident of a big price move UP later today.
thanks. that's a very likely scenario. it could also have been to shake-out the weak hands and buy at a lower price before the "blastoff".
i noticed u posted that before the announcement. PROPS.
looks like they wanted to start the sell off before lunch, guess everyone wants to head out to the Hamptons early today....
Sprott Physical Silver (PSLV) was offered starting on Oct 28 @ $10/share. It is still only $10.74 as I write. Contract says it can be redeamed as silver. Only problem is that an American must file Canadian tax forms upon redemption as silver. Of course, there is no Canadian tax required for sale of shares in the free market.
I am thinking about moving my CEF holdings to Sprott.
Turd - congrats on the renewed excellent "calls". A pullback after 1400 was hit - or is this a hold into next week?
The Great Carnac says:
I'm waiting one last push today to 1401 or so and 27.00. Maybe sometime before 12:00 EDT? After that, drift lower into the close as folks ring up some profits before the weekend.
There's still two hours left so obviously anything can happen. However, absent a complete downdraft, the Dec10 gold is going to close at a new weekly high above 1372. The weekly chart will look so nice that it's hard to imagine that there won't be more follow-through next week. I mentioned back on Wednesday that once we cleared 1390, the next possible line of defense for Blythe might be around 1420 but, more significantly near 1440. At 1440, silver would probably be near 28 or 28.50. Gotta take a break at some point so, as we approach those levels, I'll start rolling my Dec10 options into Feb11.
Watch that crazy silver, though. Be sure to check Harvey Organ on Saturday morning for his weekly wrap-up. Be sure to listen to the "Weekly Metals Wrap" on KWN, too. There's more and more chatter about "commercial signal failure". The next couple of weeks may be parabolic in silver so pay close attention.
Yup. I owe the family a nice dinner tonight. I decided to pay for it out of the paycheck rather than trying to sell silver. I find that it is becoming too precious for me to exchange for dollars, or even goods or services at current prices.
I will be buying more next week. I can only pray that there is a pull back when I have money available for a big purchase. Still seeing PM trolls calling for $1000 gold and $12 silver, and rather than getting mad anymore, I just chuckle to myself and hope that they are right, so I can get twice as much silver for my paycheck. I don't think I will be so lucky. In fact, I think the time is fast approaching where I won't even be able to get an ounce of silver for a full day's pay, and I might start to have problems being able to afford an oz of silver with my monthly savings.
I dread the day that it is no longer worth it for me to go into work. I love my job, but I'm not going to spend money to do it without a stake in the company. Too bad. Maybe I'll just make booze instead.
You can also spend your time, uh, growing "plants".
hellz ya put me down for booze and "plants."
The next couple of weeks may be parabolic in silver so pay close attention.
buy that bitch till the roof falls off..atleast till $30. premiums will be an issue..but who the fuck cares. the wheels are falling off this 3 wheel skate board..why fuck around?..just syain'..imho of course
additionally, guns..channeling james brown's..."payback"..
Sold me out, for chicken change (yes you did!!)
Told me that they, they had it all arranged
you had me down, and thats a fact
Now you're pumped, You gotta get ready For the big payback!! (the big
payback!!)
That's why I left, for the big payback (the big payback!
not yet JL. Wait for the $10 up days.
1. I agree. This thing is far from over. Was it John Embry who said something about there will be days where you'll feel like your hair's on fire?
2. Jim Sinclair is looking smarter and smarter, isn't he?
3. Calling tops in the PM market is going to be really hard. This is a global fiat meltdown, and the amount of fiat that has been converted to precious metals is still less than 1% IIRC. Now that the radical dollar bugs have been publicly exposed as central bank shills, the next wave we will have to contend with is the "Parabolic" callers.
Re #2: I wonder where Goldman got $1650.
Physical Silver Bitches!
JPM to raise more capital soon?
no - the Fed is on the other side of the trade....
So do Goldman want to sell their Gold now?
Seriously, earlier than expected, like in 2030, 2040????
don't really think so because the euro just dropped quite a bit.
maybe next week.
But never the less it will pass 1400, 1500, 1600...
8 oz buys the Dow. LMBA battling every day by the war seems lost. Looks like we will see 5 oz buying the Dow pretty soon. Can't imagine where we would have been if not for outright manipulation. Guess we should start valueing the Dow in physical silver.
This wild trip is close to over when it hits 2.
I'll say it again.. when does Bloomberg move Gold/Silver into the currency tab?
die, JPM, die.
JPM is up 1.34; like it or not my guess is they are long silver
it's the hope of JPM actually paying dividends again one day....
With the story out yesterday on King World News that Goldman has been buying gold for years to hedge its currency bets, is it now through this buy rating, selling this accumulated gold to its clients.
Is this the classic Goldman Contrarian Call?
Perhaps it is a contrarian call. It may also be misdirection-buy gold, because the central banks of the world have a lot of it and can keep the price from rising exponentially. Perhaps Glodman doesn't want folks to buy silver-the price of which has increased much more, percentage-wise, than gold. In any event, these folks are NOT to be trusted!
Can you really trust anything they day?
I remember Arthur Anderson from the 1980's...sleaze bags was a nice way to describe them...but they had this incredible 100% positive could-not-be-touched reputation. I caught one searching a VP's office, and the hose bucket knew just how to run to upper management, talk fast and get off scott-free. Same guy later left his wife and family in over a job assignment. Career above all else. Well, now they are gone thanks to Enron, exposed for what they were - liars in suits. Same with the Goldmans and JP Morgans of the world, too big to tell the truth about. I predict in a couple years they will no longer exist - and good riddance.
Just remember that to drop Bernanke, and the rest of the Fed overlords, one needs silver bull-ets.
Bang.
The Pigmen will defend 1400 for as long as possible. This is like the advance through Italy my Grandfather lived, each line defended tooth and nail.
agreed...defeat will not be conceeded...the bankers must b destroyed...
and physical holders of Gold & Silver dont take prisoners...
The soft underbelly turned out to be the tough old gut.
BP,
I am old enough to remember the RKO Pathe News Reals (Saturday Afternoon movies). That was some of the toughest going in Europe.
Wow. My grandpa stopped a bullet near Cassino in 43. He was in the West Nova Scotia Regiment.
That's cool you remember.
Gold being brutally bought; Robotroll penning his apology to Jim Sinclair.
LOL!
he's not posting any charts today?
"there's no slowing down with the silver bullet."
to the moon
Now calm down, everybody. Gold is not the answer to all our problems.
To pick just one obvious shortcoming, it is sadly lacking in the edibility department.
Cant eat gold, but I'll be happy to trade 1 can Hormel Chili for each oz of gold. I think its a pretty fair deal in a Mad Max type situation.
And Golden Sabre ammunition while not edible can get you plenty of food or fend off the walking dead.
Ok sheepdog, we went through this yesterday a bit. At least this time you did confirm Mad Max. Yes, if there is a nuclear holocost, gold will become less valuable again relative to necessities. However, there are many stages in between now (where an ounce of gold will buy 1000 cans of Hormel Chili) and Mad Max (where it will buy one).
I don't own gold for Mad Max world. I own it for Weimar/Zimbabue world.
agreed - in a mad max world, Craftsman Tools Bitchez!!!
Boomerangs bitches
And a metal glove.
Not while I'm producing food you won't (or rather, you can charge that price, but you'll find no takers).
You can make that trade when you are the only game in town, but that is highly unlikely under any circumstances short of a planet killing asteroid, where you are in a mile deep bunker with your Hormel.
As I said in the other thread, I expect that you will be able to buy yard eggs from me five dozen for an oz of silver. Five pounds of veg should have a similar price. I'd probably part with a meat hen for the same price as well, but that depends on how many of those I have.
With prices that high, EVERYONE will start making food for sale, and eventually the prices will drop.
how is golden sabre ammo going to get you food? You're going to strong arm rob people...that's the fucking strategy? Lunatic.
Thank you for your unique contribution to this Gold discussion. Your original and interesting point, which has never been considered or mentioned before on this forum, will be given full consideration and scrutiny over the next months, where we at the right juncture, in the fullness of time, will be able to give you a proper response to this interesting and unique point. It's people like you who make this forum what it is.
+1393.10
Paper lacks in edibility too, but excels in ass wiping ability.
GS bought gold to hedge their currency bets? Is it just me, or are these people actually retards with access to free money and insider info as their ONLY claim to fame??
aka "Golden Rule".
goldman looks after itself but they must be struggling to continue to cover currency bets. Gold could be a one way street to $10k . If they have loads of gold why sell now?
"tightening monetary policy suggests this is a good time for gold producers to begin scaled up hedging of forward production"
Hummm..., and just whom might be on the buy side of said hedging...?
Physical silver getting real tite. Scotia premiums on 100 oz bars is up from 90cents in Aug to 4.00. 1 oz bar premium up to 5.00.
https://www.scotiamocatta-estore.scotiabank.com/stores/scotiamocatta/catalog/catalog.aspx?nst=GXLqF7%2bdXVntKnBaWPeeeTETwfkd7uVq
Premiums are getting near what the silver price was a couple years ago! lol
Scotia's premiums are whacked! A full $80 above Kitco for a 1oz bar gold. Might as well flush 4 20's down the toilet than feed the greedy bank bastards.
I just went and looked at Tulving. He is selling 100 oz. RCM bars at $.49 an ounce over spot. Also, I noted that he has quite a few products listed as "Sold Out."
He is selling $1000 bags of junk silver at spot, though, which might help us all get through the carnage by having a local currency that can't be devalued.
Perhaps our future will hold a brand new "March of Dimes" campaign?
ebay. Recent gains in silver plus the current rally will see some mid term holders cashing in.
Don't buy from Scotia. Royal will give you a much better deal.
The Fed is trying like hell to get the bank stocks up. How will they award themselves huge bonuses if there stocks are under performing. They must at all cost get the big bank stocks up. Yesterdays tout from the fed that banks can resume paying dividends just shows how really desperate they are. Everyone knows the banks are broke and without the US tax payers they would all be bankrupt and out of business, bunch of thieves.
I'm loving this. We can short Ben and the banks, still cheer the unicorn markets, not participate in the momentum stocks and have actual money as the dollar vaporizes.
Real money! How sweet that sounds.
Real money! Yeah, I like it.
I only wish I purchased more physical when gold was under $1,200 and silver was under $20.
Seriously contemplating redeeming my IRA, eating whatever penalties, and purchasing more PMs, guns, ammo, and other survival supplies.
Sounds like a solid financial plan to me.
Maybe add frozen beef and pork, a generator and a water purification system.
The generator and water purification system are definite needs. Also, check out this link...silver is just awesome.
http://www.naturalnews.com/027010_silver_bacteria_medicine.html
Hide that generator well. I've seen them stolen and replaced with a running lawnmower....in the middle of the night.
goddamn mexicans
Ex-Wives are be very dangerous too!
I wish I'd discovered Zerohedge a year ago. And bought physical gold when it was under $1000. But here we are. There's a certain . . . visceral . . . pleasure to watching the tsunami come in. Praying for rain.
While many on ZH already have their Au/Ag preps complete or in the advanced stages, I think the greater majority of us are like you. I can't remember when I caught wind of ZH, but know it was via Seeking Alpha and reading Tyler's contributions there. It was over a year ago, but I hemmed and hawed for several months before taking the Au plunge. By that time itwas at $1200 (early December). The drops didn't happen until February and March, at which point I still had some dry powder to keep dca'ing. Now I'm hemming and hawing about whether to pull out as much as my 401k will allow and splitting it between food, Au, Ag and whatever else will help me prepare for the "conceivable". Conceivable is where the hemming and hawing comes into the equation. So, now I'm forcing myself into showing some discipline and continue on the dca path. Discipline is damn hard, especially for someone who needs their daily ZH fix. I just hope we've got another 5+ years before the wheels fall off....
I wish, too. However, better late than never. I'm just thankful we've had this past year to stock up on things.
I just got the go ahead from my husband to push half of our emergency fund cash over to PMs. Gainesville Coin put some 1/10 oz coins on sale and I'm going shopping.
Have been buying my silver from them. Good to do business with.
$5.00 promo code... NIAUS
Gainsville Coin has a lot of interesting stuff on display in there showroom. If you are going to visit them it's a good idea to get EXACT directions on where they are located. Not the easiest place to find, but I understand why they prefer it to be so.
Good people to do business with.
Also, if you have the resources, buy a greenhouse. A 20X30 greenhouse will grow much more food than your family can eat (at least 5X more than family of 4 will eat) year round. In a post collapse world, the man with out-of-season lettuce will be king.
Be the richest man in the county, Distilling Whiskey
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME
I agree with the sentiment, but I don't want to give them any reason to confiscate my stuff. In the unlikely event they find a still on your property, you are in a lot of trouble. So, i will stick with the legal scenarios.
I thought we were allowed to own stills now as hobbyists?
(Not that I would ever ask criminals for permission to own anything.)
You can make beer or wine for personal use, but you can no way, no how have a still for distilling spirits. Even experimenting with distilling fuels will get you in trouble.
Done. And it was a sigh of relief too.
Anybody have a view on the new Silver ETF " SIL"...
Bought a smallish position for silver-focused diversification. It's had a good run. Up 19% over last 30 days.
Seems like all my associates like Robot an JW abandoned me to carry on the task of lying about gold to just me. You cowards come out and help me! Gold to 200, gold to 200, gold to 200
Need a little help with those zero's?
The last man standing! Only the strong and brutal survive!
that's right I ain't going no where. Wait...somebody is knocking on the door...Oh my, they want to lynch me! jamie help!!!!
LOL!
I have been reading (both here at ZH and elsewhere) a lot of angry comments about QE2. Best tell Jamie to be looking after his own a$$...
The day the Fed announces that it will begin to tighten monetary policy gold will double. Superinflation will kick in and you better have plenty of gold, silver and oil on that day.
waterdog..., plz explain.
Sorry for the late reply. The Fed has flooded the system with dollars. Too many dollars leads to inflation. The fed is still printing dollars. The old saying, "too many dollars chasing too few goods". When the Fed tightens policy it is because the developing countries have shifted into high gear- expanding their own middle class. Buying all of our exports, driving cars for the first time. Thank God for coal. Anyway, oil will be scarce until it can sell for $ 120/barrel. You will not be able to pay $8.00/gallon for gasoline unless you had purchased gold and silver prior to, lets say for grins, 2012. The only way to own oil is via stock. But do not worry, if by 2014 you are not growing at least 25% of your vegetables and fruits, your a dead SOB: so it will not really matter.
Big banks are only vihicles of the big boys.
Paper short bank,physical long owners.
They would not care if the bank blows up,
Get bailed out on paper side,it's all a simple
con game.Now start up big run on gold and
break down civilisation and gouverment after
that,save the day and take more control over
the people because they lost everyting.
Take control for an other 100year.
The real robbery took place 10years ago with
gold at 250 -300$ ounce and central banks
dumping gold.The money printing is to cash
in on this robbery.
Began buying gold at +/- $550 and silver +/- 8 , always the physical and never the paper, and have been scared shitless quite a few times since as I watched my 'gains' slip away, but I tried to buy a little more when I was most frightened and prices were lowest, and gradually over time things seem to be working out. I know I will be scared again, for sure, and think in a kind of panic 'maybe I ought to sell'. But then I will realize why I'm paniced, and calm down, and remember I'm not selling, and that I'm buying whenever I can. And keeping my powder dry.
Reminds me of that quote in Eric Jordan's commemoratives book:
"What we think isn't as important as why we think it." -- Unknown
Keeping the eye on the prize is hard to do over the long term, but thinking about the long term is what I would guess drives pelple to ZH.
I'm sure this quote can be applied to another context, but your post made it pop into my head.
I concluded long ago that there are only two reasons why Goldman makes trading recommendations to the public:
1) It favors a position they already hold, allowing them to profit from people acting on their advice.
2) It is contrary to a position their competitors hold, causing their competitors to take a loss.
I suspect this announcement is more of the #2 type.
I also decided long ago that none of this game playing is anything that a small investor like myself can hope to profit from in the long run.
We the people have been played for fools.
Some of us where clever enough to buy the PM.
But what about our fellow humans whom did not.
It is time to take back what is ours and remove the
power of so called moneycreation out of the
hands of the elite into the hands of the marketplace.
It is just an illiousion that a few powerfull man are
capable of determening the price of money.
In the marketplace we all will have a vote as shoud be.
Did anyone see that one-minute spike down from 26.17 -- to *25.62* (just under yesterday's close) -- back up to 26.16 at 11:20a on today's Yahoo! SLV chart?
What was that? -- an HFT grope for support or what?
Aw, wait. Should'a been looking for shenanigans. Today is options expiration for those little bastage five-day contracts. Got 'em leaching GLD too.
Carry on... (carrion?)....
But if QE2 drags on like QE1, GS's target of $1650 may get blown as well. As far as I'm concerned, futures in PM are only good for dumping on the way up.
"Let's get physical, physical" -Olivia Newton John
Betchez!
Just talked to the "coin " guy, he is low or out of a lot of the physical silver products. Sounds like panic demand to me, no one wants to take the profit, it's hold ontime now.
More like 'grim realization demand.'
Hmm.... time to run to my local dealer and see what his world is like these days.
what the heck is Blythe!?
Blythe Masters, the evil woman who invented Credit Default Swaps with a drawing on a piece of paper, which, God has promised us, will end up eating her and JP Morgan one day for lunch.
She is currently in charge of the Commodities area of JP Morgan, reports to Jamie Dimon and runs the bear raids on Gold and Silver.
I've been saying this for two years. I'll take half the bonus GS normally pays out. Not bad for somebody who is also smarter than a 5th grader and can name the primary colors.
Gold and Silver were going to surge...
REGARDLESS of how constipated Lloyd Blank-dick-fein is...
I recommend a buy on the sun will rise tomorrow...
See: I am as smart as any Goldman dickweed...
"The catalyst: Goldman's David Greely has just released a report on gold saying that: "we expect that gold prices will continue to rise over the next 12 months to our $1650/toz target as US monetary policy remains accommodative and US real interest rates remain low."
OUR???.........Stolen for Mr. Jim Sinclair,scumbag.
Have you ever tracked the time of day that comments begin and end on a topic? If you ever do, you will find that the comments are limited to the time of day that people are at work. What appears to have happened on ZH is, that the majority of people who comment on the site use their employer's computer. Which basically means they have no point but are playing on ZH with their buddy in the next cubicle. Take the names of people who comment on the weekend and compare them to the names from 10:00 A.M. to 4:00 P.M. Monday through Friday.
Or they could be self-employed. Or just efficient. I'm a stay-at-home mom, but when I worked in an office, I'd get done with all of my work before lunch and start begging for things to do so I wouldn't fall asleep the rest of the day. I couldn't go home early because I had to be there in case new tasks came up later in the day.
Eventually, our branch manager just told me to entertain myself on the internet so I'd stop asking him if I could reorganize our files. Again.
Not that blowing a bubble in gold would ever be something that "they" would do.
I have not seen much on the site about the Hong Kong ETF launch this week. Curious.
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