Gold, Silver Surge After John Taylor Predicts Gold To Hit $1,900 By October

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Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:32 | 1473845 Voodoo-economist
Voodoo-economist's picture

rubbish, thats just a double bottom, with the ussual reaction

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:34 | 1473866 Waffen
Waffen's picture

yeah no shit.. Gold to $1100.  wtf is this guy smoking?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:38 | 1473896 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Ditto. If Bernanke said it....then maybe.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:00 | 1474031 flacon
flacon's picture

If gold goes to $1,100 from $1,900 there will be an $800 premium to actually buy the coin. 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:09 | 1474073 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

WTF kind of advice is that?  Yeah, gold is going to $1900, but when that hits you want to go short, you don't want to be in gold when it goes parabolic /sarcasm!

Check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute "Selling Gold You Don't Have":

http://www.capitalresearchinstitute.org

"It Seemed Like  A Good Idea At The Time"

"It would be  wise to understand the repercussions of this debt not being paid back.  Those most affected will obviously be those who lent the most money to Greece, Italy, Spain, etc.  It turns out that the governments of Europe have been lending each other the money (that’s right, lending money they don’t have, to their also-broke neighbors, it would land a normal person in jail)!  And not only that, financial institutions across Europe have loaded up on the stuff (government debt).

So that means stay away from government debt and don’t touch bank stocks until after the dust has settled.  Last but not least, currency exchange rates will be affected.  So if you have large savings denominated in either US dollars or Euros it would be wise to reconsider that position.   It is tough to predict how exchange rates will change, because both the Euro and the US dollar will both be greatly devalued 2-3 years from now, but the timing, order and magnitude of the moves that will get them there are not knowable at this point in time.

Anecdotally, the CRI was started at the start of 2011.  At that time the price of gold was $1364/ounce, and today, even after a sharp decline in the last 24 hours, gold is at $1591.  Thats a 16% increase!  Or a 16% devaluation in the value/purchasing power of the US dollar,  if you look at it that way (as we at the CRI do)."

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:08 | 1474306 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Predicting a $1100-$1900 range. He has a lot of wiggle room there to be right.

My prediction: Gold will be between $0 - Infinity some time in the future.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:15 | 1474322 DavidC
DavidC's picture

dracos_ghost,
Can I quote you on that please?

DavidC

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:51 | 1474432 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

John Taylor reminds me of the father on that old show Alf.

I think he's caught in a time warp, thinking that a free market exists.  His flaw is that he thinks the PPT will allow stocks to plummet in a deflationary collapse.

The truth is, hyperinflation is more acceptable to the average idiot because they see the nominal value of their portfolio go up, even if its not in real dollar terms.  With boomers taxing the system more and more as time goes on, the US gov can't accept deflation.  Just won't happen.

Sorry John, I disagree.  We live in a ponzi paper market, PM's will be good forever.

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 15:59 | 1474930 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

GOld bitchez!

Silver bitchez!

Can't believe I had to come in here and insert these at the top of the thread, after 200+ postings. Are you people getting indolent, or just arrogant?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:24 | 1475572 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

You remind me of a politician (anywhere in the world).

I think you are caught in a selfaggrandizing vortex, thinking John Taylor made various claims that can't be confirmed.  Your flaw is that you think the PPT has God given control over markets.

Your truth is that you see hyper-inflation as an outcome of the machinations of the PTB. Your flaw is that you consider others as contemptible idiots who are unable to deduct what you deduct as a given.

It's not a matter of the US govt accepting inflation. It is a possibility and one they cannot control, if it occurs. As for the boomers, they were sold a lemon that looked like an orange. The moment they bite into that fruit, the sourness of their past decisions are going to be evident. They believed in government promises of Shangri la, as supported by taxes (even though the maths didn't support it), no less than any other Joe. It was a universal education which they excelled in selling; and here we are. They paid their taxes and now they expect the keys to the gate. Wouldn't you? They believed that the PTB would save them just as you believe that the PPT (in your case) will save us from deflation.

Sorry Nope, it's not that I am in complete disagreement with you. I hold the same hope that gold and silver will be around for ever too. No, it's just that your newly acquired truths, condescension and presumptuousness simply grates. It must be good to be so right about it all.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 18:52 | 1475501 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Who ever wrote that blurb above didn't listen to the tape too well. That $1100 call is an imagination of his own. Nowhere does Taylor make that claim. Jeffery Christian again?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:02 | 1474324 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, gold moving $5 or $10 bucks even pretty quickly in a day seems to be just noise.

$1900 is certainly plausible in the next few months.

$1100 thereafter is less plausible, but yes, in a global takedown it could get there.  Does not seem likely though.  I would offer the thought that $1040 is about the lowest you could ever expect gold ("The India Put" where they bought their 100 tons about two years ago) as the physical buyers of gold would be SWARMING all over it.

The other way gold could go below $1100 is if FOFOA is right, that the paper gold market breaks, "Paper Gold" becomes worth much less as paper's price diverges from the actual, real physical price.  But, try finding physical gold if the COMEX price is $900, $600, $400...

fofoa.blogspot.com

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 18:14 | 1475309 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

It's going to get very interesting when the paper and physical markets decouple. I can't see them NOT decoupling when the endgame plays out.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:39 | 1473904 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The only catalyst for that would be a WILD pop up of the dollar...thats what hes predicting as the great fiat printfest ramps up?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:17 | 1474109 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

SD1

You never can tell in ponzi unicorn reverse triple opposite land USSA.

However, I'm with you....what kind of bozo expects the dollar to strengthen with the launch of QE3.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:46 | 1474239 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

A deflationary depression might cause gold to be priced at $1100 per ounce. Of course the DOW and the S&P will have gone down twice as much, and a decent loaf of bread will cost $0.50. In that scenario gold's still good to own. Other than great deflation, how can gold get to $1100?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:19 | 1474332 gofigure
gofigure's picture

Bingo!

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:24 | 1474344 gofigure
gofigure's picture

"The modern theory of the perpetuation of debt has drenched the earth with blood, and crushes its inhabitants under burdens ever accumulating. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks, and corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered ... " - Thomas Jefferson

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:28 | 1474353 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

The only way gold can goto 1100 without every other asset market falling substantially moreso , is if we discover the Moon is in fact made of Gold and not Cheese. But with NASAs cut backs we still couldnt import it.   Perhaps Goldman could do a CDO using the Moon as backing. The US own the Moon right?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 15:42 | 1474867 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Armstrong and Aldren left a plaque on the moon which open sourced the moon to all mankind. It reads.

 

Here men from the planet earth first set foot upon the moon. July 1969, A.D. We came in peace for all mankind.

The moon now belongs to everyone born on the planet earth.

 

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 21:50 | 1475886 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

How about alchemy?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:12 | 1474506 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Sheepdoggie's right.  We have seen ample evidence of what people run to when they feel fear, gold.  It used to be treasuries, so you can expect a lot of those people to also crowd the gold market in the coming waves of panic.  We have seen tremendously powerful manipulation in the gold and silver markets, and yet they always recover and continue the trend upward.

All of these talking heads can't explain away the destruction of the currency and the fact that the central banks are loading up on gold.   I don't care about past gold behavior, the USD wasn't being destroyed (as quickly) in 1980.  Taylor is clueless. 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:42 | 1475740 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

"The only catalyst for that would be a WILD pop up of the dollar...thats what hes predicting as the great fiat printfest ramps up?"

It could happen, for a while.  USD is priced against a basket of fiat- all it takes for the index value to pop is for the other currencies to hyperinflate first.

So, how's this for a speculation... Fed prints trillions in USD, monetizing debt sold to China.  China uses the debt as fractional reserves to to create funds by getting their burgeoning middle class to take on debt, and manipulates markets to gain capital to bail out the Euro, and the ECB uses the debt as fractional reserves and monetizes the debt in the form of currency, selling bonds back to China.

In that case, if I have it right, US is left with a strong dollar, having exported a large portion of the inflationary money supply.  China holds UST and European bonds, as well as having firmly established a US-style debt system to replace their mecantilist one, and the Euro hyper-inflates.  US wins by having the strong currency to buy back assets, China wins by holding US strong-dollar debt and debt slaves amongst it's citizens, while keeping their relationship with the US intact.  Europe wins by inflating out of the PIIGS debt.  Chinese losses are offset by UST holdings.

It's not the worst outcome, though Europe would take a terrible hit for a time.

Then again, who knows WTF they're all up to.  I suspect there *is* a plan- it's just hard to see what it might be.  In either case, it doesn't matter- a gold hedge protects all manner of sins.  It doesn't matter if it is nominally at $10 USD, or $2000- all that matters is how much those nominal dollars will purchase.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:39 | 1473907 Bob
Bob's picture

He seems to be predicting a repeat of Sept-Oct 2008, which makes sense to me.  Maybe not all the way to $1,100, of course, but a very serious drop. 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:45 | 1473928 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Conditions today are nothing at all like they were in 2008.  I'd not risk too much money betting on an exact replay.

If another Lehmans event happened today, there is simply no way that the Government could step in like it did then and paper things over with yet more borrowed/printed money.  Not without risking the end of the world due to unintended consequences.  The political situation is totally different, not to mention the financial position of the world's governments.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:47 | 1473948 Bob
Bob's picture

Agreed X10.  That would suggest far greater liquidations, which Taylor may be expecting. 

But "investing" in forecasts?  Hell no--prices and odds are much better in Vegas.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:54 | 1473996 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Quite.  People could liquidate everything, but what would they do with the proceeds when all the banks would be folding like a house of cards?  Most could pile into Treasuries (due to 'Tradition'), but why I don't know since the USG wouldn't last long if Wall St went under.  You'd have to think that a portion of the liquidation proceeds would end up in metals, and as has been pointed out ad nauseam, it would only take a tiny fraction of total invested assets to move into gold to drive the price into 5 digits.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:08 | 1474064 trav7777
trav7777's picture

when the euro was in freefall over the Greece 1.0 situation, the Euro POG went apeshit.

A "repeat" of 2008 would suggest realistic odds of US sovereign default.  Lately, the DXY and POG have been going the same direction and opposite of oil in many cases.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:23 | 1474133 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

Is this the official statement of the KKK, or is this your own?

Since when has the KKK cared about the Euro and DXY?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:39 | 1474185 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Hey, ol' pointy hat grand wizard mensa wanna-be has this one right.

"...look man, this is simple...at what point in history have the notes of a bankrupt state become MORE worthful as a result of that bankruptcy?

The FRN is a "risk asset""

Even if by 'FRN' he means Facking-Red-Necks and not USD; it works either way.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:02 | 1474036 Reptil
Reptil's picture

I agree. they've shot their wad now. that's why they're all stalling. the die is already cast.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:43 | 1473929 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What will people be dumping gold and buying instead? Maybe ammo, I dont know.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:47 | 1473946 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

NOK

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:50 | 1473962 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

He's basically saying currency destruction (deflation) due to massive debt defaulting. The weird thing is there isn't much precedent for sovereign default in an electronic money age. Usually when you get debt write off and illiquid lending, the currency goes up because people are liquidating to cover, no?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:20 | 1474079 Reptil
Reptil's picture

yes, but here, now it just all goes to 0 overnight. where are you going to take your liquidity once liberated from the bank? to another bank? not practical since the system relies on the abillity to connect and communicate for the funds/money to have any value. in bitcoins on the spare server in the shed and wait it out? in that vault in Barbados that no one knows about? with whom is that bank going to do business with, and in what currency? Send it off on a "secure" connection to some bank in China, for renmimbi, during a collapse? hahaha

Money in itself has no value, if the means of exchange is broken.

gold in suitcases to buy shit, bitchez!
(there I said it. it felt gooood, you can junk me now ;-)

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:08 | 1474305 Bob
Bob's picture

Maybe, but I suspect things would get a lot uglier than that, from a variety of different fronts, new bankster gangs to prowling hungry folk.

If I were depending in any way whatsoever on gold, I would make sure nobody in this world knew I had it and be prepared to survive without showing any gold for at least 6 months. 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:41 | 1474591 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes.

Silver is for spending.

Gold for wealth preservation until we reach the other side.

Not a bad idea to armed to protect your gold.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:53 | 1474615 Bob
Bob's picture

Best defense is to keep your gold, and all knowledge of it, to yourself.  You don't even need a gun to do that. 

That's the gold standard for gold protection, my friend.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:23 | 1474342 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

Ask and ye shall receive

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:29 | 1474355 Chicken_Little
Chicken_Little's picture

Reptil, I won't junk you but I hear ya. I felt some of the same frustration you now have years ago. Goldmoney.com is the present best place to put your liquidity and is the best place to be able to retrive it outside of the US when the SHTF.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:59 | 1474028 DosZap
DosZap's picture

SD-One,

Dittos.........

This ain't yo mamas 2008.

There will be NO sell off on metals THIS time.

PRAY he's correct.Back up the TRUCK.

China,Asia,etc,etc, will load up like no tommorrow.

Besides, if it did drop, WHO here thinks it stays there?.

Didn't in '08, and we are 100x's worse off now than then.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:52 | 1475762 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Gold only stores value- flight to quality from gold is anything that *produces* value.  Energy production, manufacturing, transport and agriculture are all good bets if you're turning gold into something.

Bullets aren't an investment, they're to protect your investments- and it sucks if you need them.  Much rather own a farm and a factory than a case of shit to kill people with.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:56 | 1474005 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

i agree Bob

the next stock market crash will, like 2008, bring the PM's down too.. it'll be a deflationary crash, Credit Crunch II, that'll suck all cash out of any risk assets including the PM's

someone quite smart (sorry, name loss!) the other day was predicting an inflationary rise on QE3 then a deflationary crash, another brief inflationary rally and then a colossal Deflation (Val Haller) as Benny and his Masters lose complete control and Fiat gets absolutely shredded

i think that's about right on what's going to happen.. timing? ..now if we knew that, Bonus Time  ;))

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:09 | 1474072 trav7777
trav7777's picture

look man, this is simple...at what point in history have the notes of a bankrupt state become MORE worthful as a result of that bankruptcy?

The FRN is a "risk asset"

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:16 | 1474089 Reptil
Reptil's picture

you got it.

 

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:41 | 1474221 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Confidence paper.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:20 | 1474337 DosZap
DosZap's picture

 that'll suck all cash out of any risk assets including the PM's

 

Splain to me, how the Bottom falls out from under the USD, and Gold  goes down?.

If the scenario is that bad, it should, logically go PARABOLIC.

There will be no other SAFE havens..............

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:16 | 1474512 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

Because debt defaults will require the leveraged players to sell anything they can for dollars.  The value of the dollar is tied to debt but that debt will devalue first.  There is a feedback loop but the debt will lead down as I understand it.  The intial reaction of leveraged debt instruments collapsing will be to stem the bleeding.  Do that by selling anything else and hiding in treasuries.  Then after about 5 minutes of reflection, realize the treasuries are garbage too and seek anything with zero counterparty risk.  Then the parabolic move in gold would occur but not until AFTER the initial reactionary sell-off as participants lose faith in "the system".  That is the process that's being explained as I comprehend it.

Look at Argentina in 2000....there was a brief imposion (deflation) right before the larger EXplosion (inflation).

'splained very well here:  http://www.itulip.com/kapoomtheory.htm

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 16:39 | 1475093 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Along with leveraged players scrambling to get safe, increased layoffs will have the average Joe moving to cash as his prospects diminish. Ironically, if confidence is lost in the currency and treasuries, stocks fall, and PMs are sold to cover living expenses, people may actually look to real estate as a place that might hold value through a currency crisis - Bernanke's original reinflation target.

If we do get a serious downturn with lost confidence in the dollar, state and local workers will not feel as secure as in round one. Federal workers will still get paid, but with an impaired currency. 

As in the Great Depression, we may get to the point where people revert to a food and shelter focus, using extended family arrangements to ride out a period of lousy prospects for most people. 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:17 | 1474524 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

The destruction of the currency and the bankruptcy of the USA wasn't apparent to most people in 2008.  Make no mistake, there will be no overwhelming rush into treasuries when the crisis hits, it will be into PMs.

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