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Gold, Silver Surge After John Taylor Predicts Gold To Hit $1,900 By October

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In the past few minutes both gold and silver have seen a dramatic rally of buying on seemingly no news. The reason for this rally are remarks from a Bloomberg TV interview with FX Concepts' John Taylor, who just predicted that Gold will extend its rally to $1,900 by October, or in three months, coupled with a rally in the Assuie and Loonie as the EU debt crisis eases. But not for long: this record price will be promptly followed by a plunge down to $1,100 following liquidations as the latest and greatest recession grips the world, which he believes will be worse than the 2008 one due to the US running out of "gimmicks" to avert a slowdown. He believes the EU will slow as well, and the euro will drop to $1.15, and may hit parity next year (not a new call for Taylor).

Watch the full clip below

 

 

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Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:32 | 1473845 Voodoo-economist
Voodoo-economist's picture

rubbish, thats just a double bottom, with the ussual reaction

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:34 | 1473866 Waffen
Waffen's picture

yeah no shit.. Gold to $1100.  wtf is this guy smoking?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:38 | 1473896 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Ditto. If Bernanke said it....then maybe.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:00 | 1474031 flacon
flacon's picture

If gold goes to $1,100 from $1,900 there will be an $800 premium to actually buy the coin. 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:09 | 1474073 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

WTF kind of advice is that?  Yeah, gold is going to $1900, but when that hits you want to go short, you don't want to be in gold when it goes parabolic /sarcasm!

Check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute "Selling Gold You Don't Have":

http://www.capitalresearchinstitute.org

"It Seemed Like  A Good Idea At The Time"

"It would be  wise to understand the repercussions of this debt not being paid back.  Those most affected will obviously be those who lent the most money to Greece, Italy, Spain, etc.  It turns out that the governments of Europe have been lending each other the money (that’s right, lending money they don’t have, to their also-broke neighbors, it would land a normal person in jail)!  And not only that, financial institutions across Europe have loaded up on the stuff (government debt).

So that means stay away from government debt and don’t touch bank stocks until after the dust has settled.  Last but not least, currency exchange rates will be affected.  So if you have large savings denominated in either US dollars or Euros it would be wise to reconsider that position.   It is tough to predict how exchange rates will change, because both the Euro and the US dollar will both be greatly devalued 2-3 years from now, but the timing, order and magnitude of the moves that will get them there are not knowable at this point in time.

Anecdotally, the CRI was started at the start of 2011.  At that time the price of gold was $1364/ounce, and today, even after a sharp decline in the last 24 hours, gold is at $1591.  Thats a 16% increase!  Or a 16% devaluation in the value/purchasing power of the US dollar,  if you look at it that way (as we at the CRI do)."

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:08 | 1474306 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Predicting a $1100-$1900 range. He has a lot of wiggle room there to be right.

My prediction: Gold will be between $0 - Infinity some time in the future.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:15 | 1474322 DavidC
DavidC's picture

dracos_ghost,
Can I quote you on that please?

DavidC

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:51 | 1474432 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

John Taylor reminds me of the father on that old show Alf.

I think he's caught in a time warp, thinking that a free market exists.  His flaw is that he thinks the PPT will allow stocks to plummet in a deflationary collapse.

The truth is, hyperinflation is more acceptable to the average idiot because they see the nominal value of their portfolio go up, even if its not in real dollar terms.  With boomers taxing the system more and more as time goes on, the US gov can't accept deflation.  Just won't happen.

Sorry John, I disagree.  We live in a ponzi paper market, PM's will be good forever.

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 15:59 | 1474930 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

GOld bitchez!

Silver bitchez!

Can't believe I had to come in here and insert these at the top of the thread, after 200+ postings. Are you people getting indolent, or just arrogant?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:24 | 1475572 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

You remind me of a politician (anywhere in the world).

I think you are caught in a selfaggrandizing vortex, thinking John Taylor made various claims that can't be confirmed.  Your flaw is that you think the PPT has God given control over markets.

Your truth is that you see hyper-inflation as an outcome of the machinations of the PTB. Your flaw is that you consider others as contemptible idiots who are unable to deduct what you deduct as a given.

It's not a matter of the US govt accepting inflation. It is a possibility and one they cannot control, if it occurs. As for the boomers, they were sold a lemon that looked like an orange. The moment they bite into that fruit, the sourness of their past decisions are going to be evident. They believed in government promises of Shangri la, as supported by taxes (even though the maths didn't support it), no less than any other Joe. It was a universal education which they excelled in selling; and here we are. They paid their taxes and now they expect the keys to the gate. Wouldn't you? They believed that the PTB would save them just as you believe that the PPT (in your case) will save us from deflation.

Sorry Nope, it's not that I am in complete disagreement with you. I hold the same hope that gold and silver will be around for ever too. No, it's just that your newly acquired truths, condescension and presumptuousness simply grates. It must be good to be so right about it all.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 18:52 | 1475501 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Who ever wrote that blurb above didn't listen to the tape too well. That $1100 call is an imagination of his own. Nowhere does Taylor make that claim. Jeffery Christian again?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:02 | 1474324 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, gold moving $5 or $10 bucks even pretty quickly in a day seems to be just noise.

$1900 is certainly plausible in the next few months.

$1100 thereafter is less plausible, but yes, in a global takedown it could get there.  Does not seem likely though.  I would offer the thought that $1040 is about the lowest you could ever expect gold ("The India Put" where they bought their 100 tons about two years ago) as the physical buyers of gold would be SWARMING all over it.

The other way gold could go below $1100 is if FOFOA is right, that the paper gold market breaks, "Paper Gold" becomes worth much less as paper's price diverges from the actual, real physical price.  But, try finding physical gold if the COMEX price is $900, $600, $400...

fofoa.blogspot.com

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 18:14 | 1475309 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

It's going to get very interesting when the paper and physical markets decouple. I can't see them NOT decoupling when the endgame plays out.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:39 | 1473904 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The only catalyst for that would be a WILD pop up of the dollar...thats what hes predicting as the great fiat printfest ramps up?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:17 | 1474109 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

SD1

You never can tell in ponzi unicorn reverse triple opposite land USSA.

However, I'm with you....what kind of bozo expects the dollar to strengthen with the launch of QE3.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:46 | 1474239 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

A deflationary depression might cause gold to be priced at $1100 per ounce. Of course the DOW and the S&P will have gone down twice as much, and a decent loaf of bread will cost $0.50. In that scenario gold's still good to own. Other than great deflation, how can gold get to $1100?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:19 | 1474332 gofigure
gofigure's picture

Bingo!

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:24 | 1474344 gofigure
gofigure's picture

"The modern theory of the perpetuation of debt has drenched the earth with blood, and crushes its inhabitants under burdens ever accumulating. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks, and corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered ... " - Thomas Jefferson

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:28 | 1474353 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

The only way gold can goto 1100 without every other asset market falling substantially moreso , is if we discover the Moon is in fact made of Gold and not Cheese. But with NASAs cut backs we still couldnt import it.   Perhaps Goldman could do a CDO using the Moon as backing. The US own the Moon right?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 15:42 | 1474867 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Armstrong and Aldren left a plaque on the moon which open sourced the moon to all mankind. It reads.

 

Here men from the planet earth first set foot upon the moon. July 1969, A.D. We came in peace for all mankind.

The moon now belongs to everyone born on the planet earth.

 

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 21:50 | 1475886 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

How about alchemy?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:12 | 1474506 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Sheepdoggie's right.  We have seen ample evidence of what people run to when they feel fear, gold.  It used to be treasuries, so you can expect a lot of those people to also crowd the gold market in the coming waves of panic.  We have seen tremendously powerful manipulation in the gold and silver markets, and yet they always recover and continue the trend upward.

All of these talking heads can't explain away the destruction of the currency and the fact that the central banks are loading up on gold.   I don't care about past gold behavior, the USD wasn't being destroyed (as quickly) in 1980.  Taylor is clueless. 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:42 | 1475740 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

"The only catalyst for that would be a WILD pop up of the dollar...thats what hes predicting as the great fiat printfest ramps up?"

It could happen, for a while.  USD is priced against a basket of fiat- all it takes for the index value to pop is for the other currencies to hyperinflate first.

So, how's this for a speculation... Fed prints trillions in USD, monetizing debt sold to China.  China uses the debt as fractional reserves to to create funds by getting their burgeoning middle class to take on debt, and manipulates markets to gain capital to bail out the Euro, and the ECB uses the debt as fractional reserves and monetizes the debt in the form of currency, selling bonds back to China.

In that case, if I have it right, US is left with a strong dollar, having exported a large portion of the inflationary money supply.  China holds UST and European bonds, as well as having firmly established a US-style debt system to replace their mecantilist one, and the Euro hyper-inflates.  US wins by having the strong currency to buy back assets, China wins by holding US strong-dollar debt and debt slaves amongst it's citizens, while keeping their relationship with the US intact.  Europe wins by inflating out of the PIIGS debt.  Chinese losses are offset by UST holdings.

It's not the worst outcome, though Europe would take a terrible hit for a time.

Then again, who knows WTF they're all up to.  I suspect there *is* a plan- it's just hard to see what it might be.  In either case, it doesn't matter- a gold hedge protects all manner of sins.  It doesn't matter if it is nominally at $10 USD, or $2000- all that matters is how much those nominal dollars will purchase.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:39 | 1473907 Bob
Bob's picture

He seems to be predicting a repeat of Sept-Oct 2008, which makes sense to me.  Maybe not all the way to $1,100, of course, but a very serious drop. 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:45 | 1473928 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Conditions today are nothing at all like they were in 2008.  I'd not risk too much money betting on an exact replay.

If another Lehmans event happened today, there is simply no way that the Government could step in like it did then and paper things over with yet more borrowed/printed money.  Not without risking the end of the world due to unintended consequences.  The political situation is totally different, not to mention the financial position of the world's governments.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:47 | 1473948 Bob
Bob's picture

Agreed X10.  That would suggest far greater liquidations, which Taylor may be expecting. 

But "investing" in forecasts?  Hell no--prices and odds are much better in Vegas.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:54 | 1473996 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Quite.  People could liquidate everything, but what would they do with the proceeds when all the banks would be folding like a house of cards?  Most could pile into Treasuries (due to 'Tradition'), but why I don't know since the USG wouldn't last long if Wall St went under.  You'd have to think that a portion of the liquidation proceeds would end up in metals, and as has been pointed out ad nauseam, it would only take a tiny fraction of total invested assets to move into gold to drive the price into 5 digits.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:08 | 1474064 trav7777
trav7777's picture

when the euro was in freefall over the Greece 1.0 situation, the Euro POG went apeshit.

A "repeat" of 2008 would suggest realistic odds of US sovereign default.  Lately, the DXY and POG have been going the same direction and opposite of oil in many cases.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:23 | 1474133 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

Is this the official statement of the KKK, or is this your own?

Since when has the KKK cared about the Euro and DXY?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:39 | 1474185 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Hey, ol' pointy hat grand wizard mensa wanna-be has this one right.

"...look man, this is simple...at what point in history have the notes of a bankrupt state become MORE worthful as a result of that bankruptcy?

The FRN is a "risk asset""

Even if by 'FRN' he means Facking-Red-Necks and not USD; it works either way.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:02 | 1474036 Reptil
Reptil's picture

I agree. they've shot their wad now. that's why they're all stalling. the die is already cast.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:43 | 1473929 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What will people be dumping gold and buying instead? Maybe ammo, I dont know.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:47 | 1473946 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

NOK

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:50 | 1473962 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

He's basically saying currency destruction (deflation) due to massive debt defaulting. The weird thing is there isn't much precedent for sovereign default in an electronic money age. Usually when you get debt write off and illiquid lending, the currency goes up because people are liquidating to cover, no?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:20 | 1474079 Reptil
Reptil's picture

yes, but here, now it just all goes to 0 overnight. where are you going to take your liquidity once liberated from the bank? to another bank? not practical since the system relies on the abillity to connect and communicate for the funds/money to have any value. in bitcoins on the spare server in the shed and wait it out? in that vault in Barbados that no one knows about? with whom is that bank going to do business with, and in what currency? Send it off on a "secure" connection to some bank in China, for renmimbi, during a collapse? hahaha

Money in itself has no value, if the means of exchange is broken.

gold in suitcases to buy shit, bitchez!
(there I said it. it felt gooood, you can junk me now ;-)

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:08 | 1474305 Bob
Bob's picture

Maybe, but I suspect things would get a lot uglier than that, from a variety of different fronts, new bankster gangs to prowling hungry folk.

If I were depending in any way whatsoever on gold, I would make sure nobody in this world knew I had it and be prepared to survive without showing any gold for at least 6 months. 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:41 | 1474591 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes.

Silver is for spending.

Gold for wealth preservation until we reach the other side.

Not a bad idea to armed to protect your gold.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:53 | 1474615 Bob
Bob's picture

Best defense is to keep your gold, and all knowledge of it, to yourself.  You don't even need a gun to do that. 

That's the gold standard for gold protection, my friend.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:23 | 1474342 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

Ask and ye shall receive

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:29 | 1474355 Chicken_Little
Chicken_Little's picture

Reptil, I won't junk you but I hear ya. I felt some of the same frustration you now have years ago. Goldmoney.com is the present best place to put your liquidity and is the best place to be able to retrive it outside of the US when the SHTF.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:59 | 1474028 DosZap
DosZap's picture

SD-One,

Dittos.........

This ain't yo mamas 2008.

There will be NO sell off on metals THIS time.

PRAY he's correct.Back up the TRUCK.

China,Asia,etc,etc, will load up like no tommorrow.

Besides, if it did drop, WHO here thinks it stays there?.

Didn't in '08, and we are 100x's worse off now than then.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:52 | 1475762 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Gold only stores value- flight to quality from gold is anything that *produces* value.  Energy production, manufacturing, transport and agriculture are all good bets if you're turning gold into something.

Bullets aren't an investment, they're to protect your investments- and it sucks if you need them.  Much rather own a farm and a factory than a case of shit to kill people with.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:56 | 1474005 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

i agree Bob

the next stock market crash will, like 2008, bring the PM's down too.. it'll be a deflationary crash, Credit Crunch II, that'll suck all cash out of any risk assets including the PM's

someone quite smart (sorry, name loss!) the other day was predicting an inflationary rise on QE3 then a deflationary crash, another brief inflationary rally and then a colossal Deflation (Val Haller) as Benny and his Masters lose complete control and Fiat gets absolutely shredded

i think that's about right on what's going to happen.. timing? ..now if we knew that, Bonus Time  ;))

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:09 | 1474072 trav7777
trav7777's picture

look man, this is simple...at what point in history have the notes of a bankrupt state become MORE worthful as a result of that bankruptcy?

The FRN is a "risk asset"

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:16 | 1474089 Reptil
Reptil's picture

you got it.

 

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:41 | 1474221 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Confidence paper.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:20 | 1474337 DosZap
DosZap's picture

 that'll suck all cash out of any risk assets including the PM's

 

Splain to me, how the Bottom falls out from under the USD, and Gold  goes down?.

If the scenario is that bad, it should, logically go PARABOLIC.

There will be no other SAFE havens..............

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:16 | 1474512 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

Because debt defaults will require the leveraged players to sell anything they can for dollars.  The value of the dollar is tied to debt but that debt will devalue first.  There is a feedback loop but the debt will lead down as I understand it.  The intial reaction of leveraged debt instruments collapsing will be to stem the bleeding.  Do that by selling anything else and hiding in treasuries.  Then after about 5 minutes of reflection, realize the treasuries are garbage too and seek anything with zero counterparty risk.  Then the parabolic move in gold would occur but not until AFTER the initial reactionary sell-off as participants lose faith in "the system".  That is the process that's being explained as I comprehend it.

Look at Argentina in 2000....there was a brief imposion (deflation) right before the larger EXplosion (inflation).

'splained very well here:  http://www.itulip.com/kapoomtheory.htm

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 16:39 | 1475093 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Along with leveraged players scrambling to get safe, increased layoffs will have the average Joe moving to cash as his prospects diminish. Ironically, if confidence is lost in the currency and treasuries, stocks fall, and PMs are sold to cover living expenses, people may actually look to real estate as a place that might hold value through a currency crisis - Bernanke's original reinflation target.

If we do get a serious downturn with lost confidence in the dollar, state and local workers will not feel as secure as in round one. Federal workers will still get paid, but with an impaired currency. 

As in the Great Depression, we may get to the point where people revert to a food and shelter focus, using extended family arrangements to ride out a period of lousy prospects for most people. 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:17 | 1474524 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

The destruction of the currency and the bankruptcy of the USA wasn't apparent to most people in 2008.  Make no mistake, there will be no overwhelming rush into treasuries when the crisis hits, it will be into PMs.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:41 | 1473917 midtowng
midtowng's picture

I wouldn't be surprised to see a steep correction when the full SHTF moment arrives, but $1,100 is a bit more than I expect.

He's talking about the same sort of reaction we saw in 2008, but more serious and with the markets learning nothing from it.

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:08 | 1474489 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Right I was going to say the same thing.  Most people have learned something from then.  Even if people are more leveraged now than `08 the volume is also lower so there are likely fewer players.

I doubt we'll see $1100 any time in the next 5-10 years.

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:49 | 1473967 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

Clearly high on the Hopium.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:51 | 1473975 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

A big fat juicy doobie I must say. I think he is losing it. Quick get the guy Obama's HC Plan.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:37 | 1474201 BinAround
BinAround's picture

Funny, I did not hear Taylor predict a fall of gold to $1100. 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:58 | 1474454 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

Me niether! It's funny how commentary becomes primary source material in everyone's minds (whether here or in academia). Does anybody have a source for Taylor predicting $1,100 or are we all taking Tyler's word for it?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:35 | 1474572 Mr.Really.Fed.Up
Mr.Really.Fed.Up's picture

I didn't hear him forecast 1100 gold either

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 15:45 | 1474880 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

FALL?!

 

Currently, 1 ounce of gold is priced at 50 real dollars. (check the marking on your coins)

So if 1 ounce goes to 1100 real dollars that a 2200% increase ;)

 

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:41 | 1474396 AGuy
AGuy's picture

I really hope is $1100 call is right. That would be a great buying opportunity.

FWIW, it may not be that much of a stretch. All the Fed has to do is stop printing money for a while so that interest rates start rising, and fears of deflation manifest once again.

 

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:34 | 1473871 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

I hope he's half right!

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:56 | 1474003 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

ahh,  there they are again.  the mona and the lisa of mammeries.

speaking of half right, is the right one mona or lisa?  i've always had a hard time differentiating twins.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:39 | 1474212 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

Indeed.

Plad, would you be so kind as to share the link to your avatar? I'm sure I'm not the only person here that would love to view it in its full-sized glory.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:34 | 1473872 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Is it?

In a normal breathing market; metals go up; metals come down. Up. Down. up sell, down buy.. up... sell, down buy.

Never forget your entry price plus whatever it cost to get your coin Grasshopper.

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:39 | 1473903 Voodoo-economist
Voodoo-economist's picture

until it isnt, yes. not saying its gonna make new highs. au contraire, its opex.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:48 | 1473957 unununium
unununium's picture

Someday the put sellers are going to get their face ripped off.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:06 | 1474144 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

They do somedays, just like the calls... all eyes on the ratio.

Not a rule, natch.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:37 | 1473882 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Duplicate Post.

If I bought Gold last week at 1550 and saw this news and it's rising past 1590, I would go ahead and sell a coin. Wala! I made 40 dollars minus fees. A day's work for a ant or drone on minimum wage.

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:41 | 1473916 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

You mean "voila".          Tuco

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:57 | 1474013 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Actually, he meant voici.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:24 | 1475714 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

His wala (voila) superceedes your voici.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:10 | 1474078 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

No, he was correct.

He was not referring to an instrument for chamber music.

;>)

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:16 | 1475699 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

That would be a viola.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:49 | 1473963 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

Until IRS fines you for not paying your gains.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:31 | 1474168 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

30%? That is part of doing trading.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:08 | 1474066 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 If you want to have any useful, ie. money making expertise, in the silver and gold markets then you have to accept the fact that the premise of this article is false. This was not the reason we had a verticle waterfall. As I posted yesterday, we had a down waterfall; during the New York floor trading hours, and I interpreted it as an acceptable buying signal; because it was an engineered temporary bottom so that the floor traders and the locals could buy at a lower price; today their interest is served by a vertical waterfall going up; weakness in the stop book and any news that comes along, during the process, and or after the process has already started; is welcome, but not absolutely necessary. If you look at the kitco daily chart today you'll see the vertical waterfall and it's timing. As for the rest of the article; you must always remember that no-one can predict market reversals and timing months from now; no one; not even me. much less this Taylor creature. The news, is just entertainment; the price chart is what will make your bread and butter.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:33 | 1474176 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

That is true.

There was a talking head on Bloobtube last week predicting Gold at 1600 sometime by September. He was blown away a few days later.

Predictions are just that. The future may or may not bite.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:10 | 1474494 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Martin Armstrong called for 1100 gold in the short term perspective as well before it ascends into the target range of 5000. A drop to 1100 puts gold into the bottom of the primary channel......so nothing to really worry about except having some extra cash to buy when there is a fire sale

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:48 | 1474600 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

$1100 gold will attract SWARMS of buyers of physical gold.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:42 | 1475615 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

where does he say $1,100?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:32 | 1473854 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

So he means to say SHIT will HIT right after OCTOBER

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:38 | 1473856 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Sell in October? We'll see. I'm torn when it comes to JT. Sure, he runs the largest FX hedge fund in the world, but he worked for The Squid if I'm not mistaken. It's just tradition anyways;)

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:19 | 1474115 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

It sounds to me like he's trying to setup the next big blow-off top - go short scenario. Reminds me of how silver was walked up from $40-$50 only to be smacked down into the $30s.

Just another day of pumping the financial bellows of wealth transfer?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:33 | 1473858 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

These are wild, unconventional predictions.  Does he have a track record of successful calls like this?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:42 | 1473921 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I wonder if I went into a casino, & successfully called "red/black" 50 straight times... if people would follow my next call...

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:50 | 1473972 unununium
unununium's picture

I sure as hell would.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:02 | 1473998 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Successfully? 50 consecutive times? Hell yeah, I'd put down some disposable on a roll like that; assuming you were still in the casino and hadn't already been frog-marched outside for a curb sandwich, that is.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:35 | 1474188 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

There were people who cover the entire table and then spin.

I for one wont do that.

I stay at the card table myself. 5 dollars in a hand. Always with money you can afford to lose... say 100 dollars or whatever. Take it from one pocket to the table, put your winnings in the other pocket. When your first pocket is empty, game is over. Cash out and leave.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:55 | 1474265 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Sounds like fun, but francis is talking about an alien with a time machine; always worth a flutter.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:30 | 1475726 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Not on plain dumb luck. I'll stick to his real call: $1900 by october. He was a few cents away from his last call of $50 silver by a certain date and announced on KWN the time the run would start.

He's been around and has much more nous about gold and silver markets than most.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:57 | 1474011 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

He is right half the time and wrong the other half.

TERRY INGRID HILLSON

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:33 | 1473860 Quintus
Quintus's picture

I seriously doubt the movement in Gold (and silver to an even greater degree, by the way) has anything at all to do with John Taylor.  Unless the suggestion is that Futures traders are watching TV hoping for clues from talking heads on BBTV as to where prices are going next.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:39 | 1473897 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Too funny.

Repeat after me. There are no headline reading algos. I love my bank. There are no headline reading algos. I love my bank. There are no headline reading algos. :)

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:51 | 1473959 Quintus
Quintus's picture

I can understand a headline reading algo responding to 'The Bernank announces QE3' - fair enough - that's a real event, and it might actually impact on the price of many asset classes.  If they're responding to mere opinion now, then that's a whole different matter.  If that's the case, the Fed better hope that Peter Schiff never makes headlines on Bloomie, or the algos will sell of the S&P to 600.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:54 | 1473997 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Headline algos do not distinguish between opinion and "facts". The operative word is "headline".

Oh, and Rufus says that I love my bank....so I must.

(And now a word from the mind control masters)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zMQI9iO_IE

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:56 | 1474006 Quintus
Quintus's picture

I'm glad I don't have any of those Algos working for me then.  

 

What's with the 'I love my Bank' business, by the way?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:10 | 1474067 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I guess you don't read my contributor articles. Good for you. Resist the impulse and you will be better off. :>)

The in-your-face mind control overt and subliminal programming of those ads, combined with what Ally Bank was before it was "reformed and re-branded" (GMAC), really needs to be highlighted every now and then. We all want to believe our minds are sovereign territory. Nope. Not even close.

But we have been conditioned to believe it is, so it must be true. 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:21 | 1474120 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Au Contraire CD - I read your stuff with great interest, always valuable.  I must have missed the 'I love my Bank' motif though.  :-(

As it happens I have long been greatly interested in the subject of how we perceive reality and how the 'Infosphere' in which each person lives (By which I mean the range of media and other information sources that provides them with everything they know about the world outside their own immediate, personal experience) can be, and is, manipulated and shaped by a small number of parties.

One need look no further than the Rupert Murdoch / News Corporation situation in the UK at the moment to see how thoroughly Politicians of all parties have aligned and ingratiated themselves for decades with Murdoch purely because of his power to shape and colour the information that the majority of the UK population receive, and therefore how they will think and react to events.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:28 | 1474143 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Hell, you could write my stuff better than I could. If you ghost write for me, I'll give you 60% of the nothing I get.

Deal? :)

Like everything on ZH, it is gone in 60 seconds. Email me if you want a list of my articles. Everyone who does tells me they only saw about 70% of what I wrote. Some are very happy they missed it all. :>)

zhcognitivedissonance at gmail dot com

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:29 | 1474162 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Done!  Where do I sign?  :-)

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:46 | 1474236 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

In honor of the soon to be unlimited national debt ceiling, why don't you just send me a signed blank check to seal the deal?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:42 | 1474224 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

I guess I must not be vulnerable to mind control. I love my dog. My bank, not so much...

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:47 | 1474241 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Rufus says thank you.

Rough rough.....er.....ruff ruff. :)

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:20 | 1474531 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Was thinking the same thing.  Jim Rickards, Schiff, Robin Griffiths, Jim Rogers, Sprott have probably all said as much if not more than $1900.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:41 | 1473924 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Taylor quotes did flash on BBERG headlines which drive about 90% of the marginal "buyers" in the SkyNet market.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:44 | 1473932 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"buyers" (in quotation marks - WINK WINK)

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:02 | 1474039 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

gotta be some other reason.  maybe this taylor thing is cover for the "real" reason for the move we peons don't know of yet...

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:33 | 1473862 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Taylor doesn't really have a great track record with his public predictions. I think his hedge fund is a different story, but he really hasn't shown any accuracy with whatever he said during his TV appearances over the last 24 months.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:39 | 1473906 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

I, for one, admire consistency.    Tuco

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:40 | 1473914 qussl3
qussl3's picture

My sentiments exactly, just another dick talking his book.

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:34 | 1473867 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

So he means to say SHIT will HIT right after OCTOBER

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:40 | 1473909 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I think what he is saying based on the idea that he is talking his book is, shit will hit the fan 1st, then just before QE3 buy the pm's

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:57 | 1474281 tamboo
Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:33 | 1474567 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

I wish I hasn't clicked on that link.  FEMA testing a new federal emergency preparedness system and urging everyone to get an emergency kit together. 

That doesn't instill a lot of confidence.

Also, why would you need to replace what we have now?  The only advantage of a new system is it shuts down all media at the same time.  Keep the emergency report going, and you keep people in the dark.  Or is that the real reason behind the reason?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:52 | 1474609 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

The nationwide test will occur on Wednesday, November 9 at 2 p.m. eastern standard time and may last up to three and a half minutes.

11.9.11 eh?

hahhahahahhhhhhahhahh

As the federal, state, tribal, territorial and local governments prepare for and test their capabilities, this event serves as a reminder that everyone should establish an emergency preparedness kit and emergency plan for themselves, their families, communities, and businesses.

consider yourselves warned.

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:34 | 1473873 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Isn't this the same guy who in his last TV appearance predicted an "event" within days ?

Where is this event ?

It hasn't happened.

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:35 | 1473879 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

As a relative 'newbie' to this whole thing, I am becoming more and more sure that there isn't a commentator 'out there' that really knows.

Ask 10 of them for their advice and you get 11 opinions.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:37 | 1473893 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

NONE of these people saw 2008 coming...always remember that to take all these analysis with a wheelbarrow of salt.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:25 | 1474548 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Several people saw what was coming...just nobody listens to them in the fraud propaganda media machine.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:38 | 1473898 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

It is safe to say in the long run gold covers paper, I mean cotton and linen.

 

Tuco

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:57 | 1474010 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

Personally, I chose the silver route instead of gold.  And it has covered paper / linen / cotton fairly well.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:46 | 1473938 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Then you are no longer a newie. You've learned the first lesson in that no one knows what the future holds (unless you have a direct line to the Fed POMO department). So take all these predictions with a grain of salt and invest according to what you believe will happen.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:59 | 1474026 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

Newbie = 3 years (for me).

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:36 | 1473884 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The PTB and Blythe have just put out a contract on John Taylor.

100 ounces of Gold to whomever makes the kill. Karma baby. :)

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:29 | 1474153 BigJim
BigJim's picture

PHYSICAL gold? No... it would burn the PTB's skins.

100 ounces of GLD, maybe.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:48 | 1474249 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I thought that was understood.

No (real) soup for you. :)

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:36 | 1473887 camoes
camoes's picture

Euro trash is gonna tank once Chinabot finishes up diversifying from the US trash.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:36 | 1473888 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

More sideline analysis of the slo-mo head on trainwreck, and predictions of which parts will fly off where and when. Whatever.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:38 | 1473895 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I do not agree with either thought. Gold needs more time for 1,900 and violent corrections, yes, but 1,100 do not see that either. When the shit hits the fan gold, silver, miners will dump big time, but nowhere near those levels. Hopefully we here at Zero Hedge can get out within 10% of top just to buy in again, if we are lucky within 10% of the bottom. This has so far to go I will have to pass it all on to my daughter as I will be long gone. What a disaster this country has become.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:47 | 1473933 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

when the s&p was at 666, gold was at all time highs.  i dont know why people keep insisting otherwise.  recession makes real money go up in value.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:56 | 1474271 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

b-b-b-but RoboTradre told me no way can stocks go down as long as gold at 1500+ and that means they'll always go up. Geez, i'm confused

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:14 | 1474097 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the shit isn't going to hit the fan, dude.

Do you folks think that there will be some kind of grand MOMENT when it all just "crashes"?

Hell, even 2007-08 wasn't like that.

It's hitting the fan in a drip, ok?  Just prepare for next year to be a little worse than the previous one

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:35 | 1474189 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

the shit ain't going to hit the fan, y'all.

There - fixed it for ya.  Don't try to hide your trailer park roots. God loves white trash, too. 



Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:55 | 1474443 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

Are you always just going to parade your biases and cliched prejudices or will you write something of substance at some point?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 23:26 | 1476062 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Yeah Libfo, at least Trash7777 switches it up now and then.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:52 | 1474244 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I disagree with your premise that the economy is a linear system with no limits to its flexibility.  There will come a point where feedback loops will tighten inside of TPTB's ability to dampen the system.  Did you not read:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/head-worlds-biggest-hedge-fund-sees-eco... ?

And don't you think the behavior of the heard will be to exacerbate the speed and magnitude of the collapse once the direction of it becomes apparent to them?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:58 | 1474283 Bohemian Clubber
Bohemian Clubber's picture

exactly, confidence game. When there's no more confidence,

the SHTF. Look at history buddy, this time won't be any different

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:42 | 1474593 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

The USD has been debased 97% since the creation of the Fed and federal spending and debt have reached the point of no return.  The coming years won't be incremental changes from the past, they will be drastic changes. 

The ongoing wars, the length of time we have kept interest rates at zero, the housing issue, the bankruptcy of the banks, the jobless condition.  Take your pick, we are bankrupt with no political will to avoid the crash, even if political will would make a difference at this late stage.

I have very little faith in the 3% value remaining in the USD.  It will not survive the next two years IMO.  Usually, your assertion that next year will be just a little bit different would be true, but that assertion has not always held true in the past.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 15:25 | 1474783 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Dont bank on that Trav. Bank Holidays , draconian trading restrictions on hedge funds and volatility of 2008 will occur in good time.  ZHers should be doing dry runs of how long it takes to withdraw significant portions of cash from the system lest they get stuck and on the wrong end of an executive order.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:21 | 1474122 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

So either your are very old or you think this has what.... another 30 years to go?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:36 | 1474198 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Gold is not violent. It is simply a large, heavy slow moving object that crushes all who don't know how to stay out of the way.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:24 | 1474545 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

One could say the same thing about the fed or did you miss the last 2 and a half years of S&P action?

 

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:39 | 1473902 pleseus
pleseus's picture

Everybody will sell gold and buy what?  Houses in the Inland Empire.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:41 | 1473923 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats the only logical next question to gold dropping to $1,100...'then what'? People sold gold and instead bought what?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:46 | 1473939 anomalous
anomalous's picture

Perhaps covering margin calls? Paying for crap bought on credit?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:06 | 1474050 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Fair enough.  What will the people who they pay the money to do with it?  Gotta find somewhere safe to keep it - which would be difficult in a full-on financial system meltdown, I should think.  

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:57 | 1474450 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

They coul put it in the bank (that they love), or else buy a dog...

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:48 | 1474237 Goldust
Goldust's picture

That is correct.

Though who can say if it will be to $1400 or $1100.  $1100 does seem a bit aggressive to me.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 12:46 | 1474238 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

People fled to the safety of FRNs...

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 11:48 | 1473958 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Remember 2008. When the SHTF people needed cash, because the debts remained. People will run to cash again because the debts are still there. Thus gold will go down in dollar value. That much Taylor has correct.

But also remember 2009. Gold was the first asset class to recover (other than bank profits).

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