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Gold On Support
Submitted by Nic Lenoir Of ICAP
Gold is back on support here. On the 60-minute chart we are right on the neckline og a H&S pattern, and we see and the daily chart that despite a slight excess, we are roughly holding the support of the bullish channel. If we break here we should go down to test 1,090/1,075 which is the key support here below. Failure to hold that support would indicate we will go down to test 990/1,110 which the the key medium tem support, a break of which would send us down to 750. Conversely if we do hold here we should recover to 1,165, and should we break this resistance the market will rally towards new highs. As the price action is very confused, expectedly so since we are probably still in a consolidation wave 4, we would recommend making the most of short-term momentum and price patterns and keep exposure light until the market confirms a break one way or the other.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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Looks like crony capitalism just gave way to crony socialism. It's open season on the private sector. If stocks take a sustained hit in response to recognition of the change in the playing field, precious and base metals will likely have a tough time in the short to intermediate term.
It's all NOISE.
We goldbugs have the same infinite and long-suffering patience, combined with the ironclad certainty and conviction, of the religious fanatic....
thank you for admitting such, which is really all we gold bug ball-busters are trying to get outta ya ~ an admission of religious fanaticism, buttressed by 'reasons' for such.
Like there's some kind of bee dance you have to do to get that out of gold bugs. Just remember gold bugs play tit for tat. Every ball bust costs ya.
I don't get gold bugs thinking that gold will go to $5000 and the price of gas won't be $15/gal.
Gold is merely something to translate your paper into that you can translate into the next paper after they revalue the dollar by necessity or default on the FRN.
People say that the elites or the banks won't "let" the USD devalue? Listen, in every major collapse, those connected to the political elite already had their wealth out of the peso/ruble/cruzeiro real/etc before TSHTF.
Fortunately, our elites are already well set up in Switzerland. Remember, the "banks" and the "corporations" have no special place in the hearts of elites...these are merely vehicles to serve elites' purposes. They WILL NOT CARE a shit if the bank they run fails completely as a result of a currency event so long as they, the executive class, get paid, and they always have. People need to see past the "institution" and see the people behind it. Those people have no honor nor allegiance to the institution; it serves as a mechanism to enrich THEM, no more and no less.
Even AIG paid big bonuses. One or two Dick Fluds may get thrown overboard, but these are just sacrificial lambs.
Totally agree. If gold goes up it is showing the weakness of the dollar. Just like I expect oil and other commodities to rise with gold. Perhaps not lock step but it will rise. For this gold bug the only reason I buy gold is it's easy to move and store. I have a hard time moving and storing barrels of oil or tons of copper.
And of course these institutions are just tools. If/when the time comes they will burn Goldman to the ground to extract the last of the cash, the name means nothing to them.
There is the $ devaluation aspect, but there are many more vectors for the price of gold too! Our friendly bullion bank manipulators are keeping the price waaaay down. They are doing us all a huge favor allowing us to get into the best wealth preservation asset for much cheaper than it should be. Some knowledgeable people estimate that there is 80x the amount of "paper" gold than there is the physical metal. The real supply/demand dynamic alone is worth $5,000/toz. Also, the gold/silver markets are TINY. Once the rush comes, the market will shoot to the moon in short order, just because the flow of capital will blow out the supply. It's not a matter of gold at $5,000/toz and bread at $15/loaf. The supply/demand story for gold is the most intriguing aspect of it all. And remember, most goldbugs who "get it" are holding their coins/bars with very strong hands. Not like technical funds holding paper gold with trailing stops.
Get on board while they are doing you a favor and manipulating the price lower!!! And remember, the price of gold and the $ will both be rising at the same time before the whole fiat experiment collapses.
What a crock...
"The real supply/demand dynamic is worth 5000/toz"
So why isn't the price 5000, then?
Why aren't you paying 5000 an ounce for your gold today?
Because 5000/toz isn't the equilibrium price, 1100 is.
Goddamn, what a foolish thing to say. I'm going to stop bashing the goldbugs in general, but I still can't let this kind of flawed thinking pass.
Sounds like technical analysis to me.
Well, we've all seen how fundamentals have been working in driving the market lately.
The fact is that TA IS real, because that's what the computers use to trade in their algos. Humans might have relatively flawed TA from time to time, but it doesn't mean that the computers aren't using it and thus making TA a self fulfilling prophecy.
How about you sell me your investments at the "fundamental" price, so that I can go sell it on the market at the TA (market) price?
Kreditanstalt, relax, it is the noise of the day. There is always much vibration of price around head & shoulder necklines. The tug of war between both sides is intensified in those areas. If the neckline breaks, calculate the measured move for the target & buy at it ($1049.20). Be patient; no country in the course of human history has ever managed to repay exponential debts. Sovereign defaults are coming, gold will do fine against the instability.
Two examples: Greece & today we read Buffett's corporate bonds are yielding a negative spread against UST's. The first cracks in the wall are appearing. Be patient, let the bull & volatility cycles work for you. Enjoy the day!
Gold Bull here. that said. a settle under 1100 will most likely generate a 3 day sell off of aggressive proportions.
Bring on that 3 day sell off, bring it on good! Bash that price down!
Weds./Thurs. I´ll be back in the USSA buying up gold bigger than I have before.
Picking up my guns too. Hey, never know, Obama won a big one last night. Wonder who´s next...
yes, our fearless leader said he had been to all 57 states
Regarding Friday's blatant manipulation:
"The comex was bombarded by 6000 contracts or 600,000 oz of gold (20 tonnes) The cartel tried to get below the 1100 mark but got stiff resistance at these lower levels. The reason for the hit: the huge number of options that are in the money in gold and silver (160 tonnes of gold in the money) and option expiry on shares."
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
Who knows. We may test 990 when shenanigans like this are allowed.Let's just remember that the clearing brokers have their own prop desks.
If JPM is net short one position and has a client that is net long that position and has some other position nearing a margin call, say short euro, JPM can jam the euro up that client's ass and then force them to liquidate their longs and snatch up those positions in the firesale and cover for $$$$$
This is exactly what GS did to Amaranth.
You sir are precisely correct. Trading is a control game & he who knows what others positions are can steer things in a way to make profits. Hence, the GS method of unprecedented wins in the markets & the blow up of Amaranth. Thank you for pointing this out to readers.
I see 990 as a good target for gold, if what I think will happen does.
The dollar's target should be 89, based on previous peaks and TA, which would be a 10% gain. That would be a 10% loss in the relative price of gold, which would get to 990.
Also, why was gold 300 when the DXY was at 120, and now gold is at 1100 when the DXY is at 80? Shouldn't gold be at 600? (or 450?)
That's what makes me think that the FUTURE inflation is already priced in and more. That's what makes me think that the price has been run up by demand, and the fear of future inflation, and not inflation that has already occured.
A break of which ($750) brings Prechter's 2009 target of $650 firmly into view, a break of which brings Precheter's 2006 target of $550 into view a break of which brings Prechter's 2001 target of $210 into view. All hail Elliot Wave!
Of course, it all makes sense now, miners will be pulling this stuff out of the ground at a loss. A fiat currency crisis is now all but a distant memory and all CB money printing has ceased and deceased in the face of the "Great Recovery of 2010".
All my bullion is out on my driveway in a garage sale. In view of rapidly unfolding and changing events, I'm asking for $100 an ounce which I think is more than fair.
<<<<Sarcasm off>>>>
taraxias, standby old chap, I'm coming over to buy all you have! Do you have any silver on sale?
Various computer studies have been done on fractal patterns & found that everyday in the markets is unique. The EW theory may work on certain days & situations, but over time it is not robust or consistent. If it was, every hedge fund on the planet would use it & it's efficacy would be immediately diminished to zero.
Fractals are unique patterns that are similar in proportions only. They may or may not follow recognizable waves as the EW followers believe. Hence, the inevitable alternate count pattern always discussed by advocates. Follow Prechter at your own risk; he's a businessman & he's selling a product/service to his clients like any other businessman or financial advisor.
So, your comment may be sarcastic or not, but if you are a believer, do research these issues.
Who cares?
Fiat collapse is coming...we've got negative marginal productivity of debt, negative EROI energy "sources"...shit is gonna fall apart.
This isn't the first Central Bank of the USA.
We all can look into history and see the multi-decade, and sometimes even multi-century collapses of currencies and empires. Everything just looks immutable to us in our sense of the present, instead of in the abbreviated timemachine of the history books.
The Grand Canyon didn't start that way...but it looks the same now as when I was born.
And with the fiat collapse is the war against gold which will be lost and the war against and plundering of the middle class which is being accomplished. As Leo says, buy the dips ... but he shold have said gold dips.
Nice to see the PPT out early today to rally the market post-ObamaCare passage. Can't have the market closing negative after such a historic "achievement", right?
+1
Why else would the markets go up with new taxes and uncertainties coming our way?
Nice if the Gods of Commodities would give us a super sweet buying opportunity. Personally I think something will intervene and herd 'us' back into the trading range. Pity.
Bernanke will not let gold fall below what India paid for it during the last IMF sale to them. If he did, then India would retaliate. So, if India paid $ 1,050 as many think, that will be the bottom, if it reaches that point.
But India didn't necessarily buy gold at 1050. That's what the price was in USD at the time they bought all their gold.
They didn't buy the gold in USD, they bought it in their local currency. I'm not sure what the exchange rate was at that time, but there's a chance that they might have paid more or less than 1050 based on that fact.
Bouncing off of support like Homer J. on a trampoline. "I will call this tramampaline, INFLATION!"
Ben Bernanke at Princeton: Ludicrously Talking in Circles; Giving Horrible Exampleshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pzi7DhKbHOU&feature=PlayList&p=8236B9259B...
Can some1 look into this article about gold vs fiat
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Gold-Standard-Solid-as-minyanville-2853017352.html;_ylt=AtAjhAijEBTW.r7xeWLtdNG7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFhcDRuYWZpBHBvcwMyBHNlYwNzcGVjaWFsRmVhdHVyZXMEc2xrA3RoZWdvbGRzdGFuZA--?x=0
It sounds logical, tough i am still kind of confused with all this buzz around gold
So long as the supply of fiat money continues to vaporize - the USD will get stronger and gold will go down.
Short term, escalating bankruptcies, foreclosures, and debt defaults are dollar positive.
The fractional reserve model is broken, and won't EVER come back on line. The patient is dead. Too many ticks on the dog have finally killed the dog. So, over the next 3 decades, expect to see a continuously contracting economy, asset failures, escalating lawsuits, congressional hearings, and special prosecutors.
At some point, the sight of tens of millions of upper middle class families suddenly homeless because they can't handle their debts AND their tax increases will be too much for the body politic to bear. At that point, there may be massive debt and tax relief - which would generate nominal inflation by taking down the value of the USD. But there's no escaping a long term deflationary depression.
So have some Benjamins (Franklin) sitting in there with your gold. I do. Diversification.
A long deflation like you describe certainly is possible. Hey, I don´t know. My guess is that .gov would intervene big time to flood the system with money sooner than in the scenario you sketch out above.
I agree, I also see deflation occuring UNTIL they bust out the printing presses to inflate out of it.
I think that it's inevitable if things don't turn around soon... there are a lot of people that want to work that can't. Seems logical that the way to make that happen is to print.
I think that this is already priced into gold for reasons I mentioned before, earlier in the thread.
Besides, my wife & I are going to Italy before long. So get the US$ up! I am going to need a cheap €. Europe is expensive...
Totaly agree, we are going at the end of may, we need to bring this euro down significantly. ( for 2 weeks)
We need to start refering to people who believe they can store their wealth in paper promises as "PAPERBUGS".
The problem with paper is that in the longer term, if you dont exit at the right time, what you will have left won't buy bread.
I'm not a "goldbug", but I sure as hell don't see ANY redeeming value in Ben or OB's promises...
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